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You know, they all are... including no. 1 no. 1s. That's what the "I know everything about every prospect" crowd always is wrong about, the amount we can project into a different (pro) game from the college level. But yes, there are levels of predictability... I think it's perhaps safer to try to get a smart, accurate guy with a downside of game manager and an upside of always-finds-a-way-to-win.... than to hit it out of the park with the athletic gifts, whether big arm or ridiculous legs, or a combo pack. In fact, with the Brady example hanging out there (still), it's embarassing to see teams continuing to swing for the fences. They want to win highlight shows, not games or championships.It is still way too early, but Wilson was always considered a boom or bust prospect. He has a lot of raw talent, but he only played great one year and it was against mediocre competition. There is always a chance he could be a complete bust. He may not be able to rise to the talent level against him.
I actually think the JEST have a self-correcting mechanism to prevent them ruining too much of a guy's career. They move on to the next first round messiah providing the Darnolds of the world (and probably soon, the Wilsons of the world,) a new lease on life.Could you imagine if Darnold has a decent career with the Panthers and Wilson ends up being a bust?
Consider the next iteration, the decline of Saleh (perhaps he should win a game before we talk about his decline. Just to keep up appearances.) Well, the next JETE head coach will, of course, want his fortunes to rise and fall by the franchise QB he drafts, after a year of the sunk-cost fallacy with Wilson.
An embittered Wilson will go on to make his fortune (or not) somewhere else in the league, from the looks of things, usually somewhere in the NFC South.
Soon the entire NFC will be quarterbacked by guys that New England didn't give the job to and guys that the JETE did give the job to.