Why Mac Jones playing this year is important

[jimnance]

Wow. You literally came at me with a slightly-reworded version of "I know you are but what am I?"

Russell Wilson had 513 rushing yards last year, 4th in the NFL among QB's
Aaron Rodgers had 149 rushing yards last year, 22nd in the NFL among QB's

Don't ever compare those 2 men as rushers again. One is clearly superior to the other in running ability and it isn't even remotely close.

I won't be going any further on this irrelevant tangent beyond saying you picked a very strange hill to die on, my ignorant friend.

Wow. Youre too ignorant for me to bother with. I wasn't comparing Rodgers and Wilson's running ability: but their overall style of quarterbacking. You dont know what the f youre talking about. Jeezus.
Wilson had 83 rush atts all season- thats approx. 5 per game. 5. Josh Allen had 102. Watson had 90.
Wilson passed for 4212 yds.
Rodgers passed for 4299. Basically the same.
Jackson, a true RPO guy passed for 2757.
I'll repeat for the last time: even the stupidest nfl analyst would agree that the styles of Wilson and Mahomes are much closer to Rodgers than to rpo dudes like Jackson,Hill Cam etc.
Im done.

 

[Ring 6]

Hilarious. Crack is not good for your brain.
Wilson thrived( not survived) because he evolved his game. He doesnt run much anymore. He plats much more in the pocket and when he breaks the pocket hes looking to pass first. Even coming out of college Wilson was never an RPO guy like Kap. Did you ever watch aby of his college games?
The one thing I agree w. you on is the primarily running/rpo qbs yave mostly failed as has the system. Jackson gets by cause of his talent.
Any competent nfl qb analyst would tell you Rodgers game is the closest comp to both Mahomes and Wilson.
I think its you man that doesn't watch much nfl

Wilson’s biggest defining characteristics are his mobility and his lack of patience in the pocket. That creates runs, we has run for 4500 yards, (he absolutely does leave the pocket to run) and creates plays by him running around and receivers getting open.
But it also causes him to take a lot of sacks. Which leads to him asking to be traded because he gets sacked too much.
The line between good and really good QBs is a very, very important plays per game, positive or negative.
In Wilson’s career his teams have averaged ranked 9.2 in points per game.
His defenses were #1 every year for his first 4 seasons and #3 in his fifth, then average the last 4.
His teams have averaged just under 11-5 for his career (98-46).
Those are really IMO the way you judge QBs. And I think it’s a fair assessment of Wilson as a QBs. Top 10 offense, 11-5 type team, but heavily supported by way better than average defense.
I think it’s fair to call him top 10, with the understanding that the other 9 change year to year so over his 9 year career in total he’s probably higher, with the added value of never missing a game.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Mac doesn't look like an NFL player - not even a kicker. Honestly its amazing he can run a 4.8 or whatever because his upper body looks like garbage. This totally hurts him. It's why they called him a statue or whatever. Guy moves decent when you consider his fitness level..

Even when he is working with is QB coach - who obviously does an excellent job - you can see Mac just looks flabby and goofy out there. His results are excellent but his fitness is not. So its not surprising he fell.. Had he really worked on his measurables and cut down his body fat and added more muscle he could have gone higher. Glad he did not really.. Since he fell to us.

Guys like Lance and Field look the part much more.. It was the same for Brady. Had he concentrated on his body more - he could have gone in one of the earlier rounds. Some of his college games were really really good..

No doubt, Brady could have had a great career if he hadn’t looked like Chris Farley in his combine pic. Jones should have learned from that and come in looking like Carrot Top, who really should have gotten the nod from Belichick.

 

[jimnance]

Wilson’s biggest defining characteristics are his mobility and his lack of patience in the pocket. That creates runs, we has run for 4500 yards, (he absolutely does leave the pocket to run) and creates plays by him running around and receivers getting open.
But it also causes him to take a lot of sacks. Which leads to him asking to be traded because he gets sacked too much.
The line between good and really good QBs is a very, very important plays per game, positive or negative.
In Wilson’s career his teams have averaged ranked 9.2 in points per game.
His defenses were #1 every year for his first 4 seasons and #3 in his fifth, then average the last 4.
His teams have averaged just under 11-5 for his career (98-46).
Those are really IMO the way you judge QBs. And I think it’s a fair assessment of Wilson as a QBs. Top 10 offense, 11-5 type team, but heavily supported by way better than average defense.
I think it’s fair to call him top 10, with the understanding that the other 9 change year to year so over his 9 year career in total he’s probably higher, with the added value of never missing a game.

I agree with most of that- but most of the time he breaks out of the pocket he is looking to PASS not run- and in fact most of the time he DOES pass- he only averages 5 rushing attempts per game.
He passes on the run a lot- so does Rodgers- and hes good at it.
Brady is the gold standard- and the best qbs of all time are mostly pocket passers- I still believe for a lot of reasons that hasnt changed- but theres no denying Rodgers is a top 10 alltime qb- and that Wilson is certainly a successful qb- and that Mahomes has a legit shot at becoming top 5 alltime qb- none of those 3 is a pure pocket passer- so there is more than one way for a qb to have success- but none of those guys is an rpo- type qb like Cam,Hill etc- I dont believe those types of qbs can sustain success for long.

 

[BobDigital]

An interesting very upbeat assessment (calling him “the steal of the draft”) of Mac by Drew Brees. DrewBreesonMac

It was interesting to me because Brees (apart from obviously knowing quite a bit about what makes a successful NFL QB) has some similarities with Mac, the most obvious being their tennis background and (perhaps not unrelated ) their excellent footwork in the pocket.

For all the comparisons of Mac to Brady, Brees is probably the most similar comp from everything i've heard from experts. I tend to agree.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree with most of that- but most of the time he breaks out of the pocket he is looking to PASS not run- and in fact most of the time he DOES pass- he only averages 5 rushing attempts per game.
He passes on the run a lot- so does Rodgers- and hes good at it.
Brady is the gold standard- and the best qbs of all time are mostly pocket passers- I still believe for a lot of reasons that hasnt changed- but theres no denying Rodgers is a top 10 alltime qb- and that Wilson is certainly a successful qb- and that Mahomes has a legit shot at becoming top 5 alltime qb- none of those 3 is a pure pocket passer- so there is more than one way for a qb to have success- but none of those guys is an rpo- type qb like Cam,Hill etc- I dont believe those types of qbs can sustain success for long.

Well this opens up a larger discussion.
First of all your ability to run or not run isn’t really relevant to being a pocket passer, your penchant to is. The best QB is always going to be the one that executes the pass play. Brady is notorious for moving within the pocket to extend the pass plays. The distinction to me, of a pocket passer is the guy who will stay with the play in the pocket rather than leave it. Certainly some QBs make plays by leaving the pocket, but like with Wilson bad things happen too. I think Wilson abandons the pocket too early too often where a mahomes or Rodgers will abandon when the play has run its course and there is nothing else to do.

My other comment is about “RPO QBs”. I think this is misused and over used and really doesn’t have a place in a passing discussion. RPO run/pass option isn’t a system but a play. In fact it’s a running play (most easily designed as a qb run) with an option to throw a pass to one specific receiver depending on how the defense reacts. Almost a play action in reverse.
You can’t run a normal pass play from RPO because since it is a running play with an option, it can only be a quick hit (usually a slant) or else the OL is illegally downfield. Basically it’s a qb run, off of a faked handoff where the qb can throw to one guy on one route if he sees him open.
The term gets turned into an entire scheme for teams that run it a handful of times a game and that’s no more accurate than calling an offense a play action pass scheme.
But I think the point you are making (correct be if I am wrong) is that if you treat your qb like he’s a RB he isn’t going to last.

 

[XLIX]

For all the comparisons of Mac to Brady, Brees is probably the most similar comp from everything i've heard from experts. I tend to agree.

Mac will be compared to Brady his entire career by virtue of the team he plays for and that, for all intents and purposes, he is the one who is taking over after Brady (history will soon forget the one year blip with Cam Newton). But stylistically? Well, IMHO, it is unfair to throw around the names of an all time great like Brees.... so maybe we can say more like a Rivers or Ryan....

 

[jimnance]

Well this opens up a larger discussion.
First of all your ability to run or not run isn’t really relevant to being a pocket passer, your penchant to is. The best QB is always going to be the one that executes the pass play. Brady is notorious for moving within the pocket to extend the pass plays. The distinction to me, of a pocket passer is the guy who will stay with the play in the pocket rather than leave it. Certainly some QBs make plays by leaving the pocket, but like with Wilson bad things happen too. I think Wilson abandons the pocket too early too often where a mahomes or Rodgers will abandon when the play has run its course and there is nothing else to do.

My other comment is about “RPO QBs”. I think this is misused and over used and really doesn’t have a place in a passing discussion. RPO run/pass option isn’t a system but a play. In fact it’s a running play (most easily designed as a qb run) with an option to throw a pass to one specific receiver depending on how the defense reacts. Almost a play action in reverse.
You can’t run a normal pass play from RPO because since it is a running play with an option, it can only be a quick hit (usually a slant) or else the OL is illegally downfield. Basically it’s a qb run, off of a faked handoff where the qb can throw to one guy on one route if he sees him open.
The term gets turned into an entire scheme for teams that run it a handful of times a game and that’s no more accurate than calling an offense a play action pass scheme.
But I think the point you are making (correct be if I am wrong) is that if you treat your qb like he’s a RB he isn’t going to last.

Not just that he isnt going to last- the most important thing is that it doesnt give your team any chance for sustained success. Having a qb like say, a younger Cam or even a L.Jackson doesn't allow you to mount a comeback in a big game where youre down,say,28-3.

 

[zydecochris]

For all the comparisons of Mac to Brady, Brees is probably the most similar comp from everything i've heard from experts. I tend to agree.

Mac will be compared to Brady his entire career by virtue of the team he plays for and that, for all intents and purposes, he is the one who is taking over after Brady (history will soon forget the one year blip with Cam Newton). But stylistically? Well, IMHO, it is unfair to throw around the names of an all time great like Brees.... so maybe we can say more like a Rivers or Ryan...

Your well-put point (that I still want to respectfully debate a bit) is that it is unfair to throw around name like Brees or Brady. I actually think it is perfectly fair and a compelling subject to compare Mac stylistically and background-wise to Brees or Brady. Mac is extremely intelligent, hyper-competitive, a super hard worker, has excelled on the absolutely largest stages. Check, check, check, and check, so far, the comparison with Brady and Brees is apt. What qualities separated Brady and Brees as rookies from present day Mac? I would argue it is natural athleticism.

I know that Mac's combine scores were good, he is much faster than Brady, he was a very good tennis player, etc., etc. I would argue running fast does not equate to athleticism, my own definition would be: "athleticism is the ability to truly excel in sports". This can be superior hand-eye coordination, footwork, etc. And I would argue that a really superior athlete has the ability to excel in several sports. And it is in this area as rookies Brady and Brees showed their superior athleticism, BOTH could have been exceptional professional athletes in sports other than football.

• Brees. In addition to excelling at many sports in high school, he was once the top-ranked youth tennis player in Texas. The next best payer was Former World No. 1 player Andy Roddick CouldBreesHaveBeenaAllTimeTennisGreat .
• Brady: Despite his skinny look at the draft combine, Brady was an absolutely outstanding high school athlete and baseball prospect. Despite his love of Football, former Montreal Expos GM drafted Brady and said he could be a Hall of Fame Professional Baseball Catcher. CouldBradyHaveBeenAHallofFameBaseballCatcher His Serra high school coach Pete Jensen said: “I thought Tommy was a sure thing as a baseball player…even more a sure thing than (fellow Serra High alums) Gregg Jefferies or Barry Bonds, believe it or not” MoreOnBaseballBrady Other QBs drafted as baseball players include Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, John Elway, and Dan Marino. Not a bad group to belong to.

Mac is clearly a late bloomer physically (especially compared to Brees and Brady), so he could still become an excellent athlete in time in a NFL training program. But if you want to put a finger on what separates Mac as a rookie from rookie prospects like Brady and Brees, he isn't in the same league as a natural athlete, at least so far.

 

[XLIX]

Your well-put point (that I still want to respectfully debate a bit) is that it is unfair to throw around name like Brees or Brady. I actually think it is perfectly fair and a compelling subject to compare Mac stylistically and background-wise to Brees or Brady. Mac is extremely intelligent, hyper-competitive, a super hard worker, has excelled on the absolutely largest stages. Check, check, check, and check, so far, the comparison with Brady and Brees is apt. What qualities separated Brady and Brees as rookies from present day Mac? I would argue it is natural athleticism.

You have a valid point, but it's a story we've seen play out many times before.

Media takes unproven rookie and compares him to Hall of Famer
Player ends up not being that great (which I certainly hope isn't the case here)
Media bashes the player for being overrated, when they were the ones who overrated him in the first place.

I remember hearing more than 1 pundit call Joe Burrow "the next Tom Brady". IMHO it's just not a fair standard for a guy

 

[BigPeteG]

Your well-put point (that I still want to respectfully debate a bit) is that it is unfair to throw around name like Brees or Brady. I actually think it is perfectly fair and a compelling subject to compare Mac stylistically and background-wise to Brees or Brady. Mac is extremely intelligent, hyper-competitive, a super hard worker, has excelled on the absolutely largest stages. Check, check, check, and check, so far, the comparison with Brady and Brees is apt. What qualities separated Brady and Brees as rookies from present day Mac? I would argue it is natural athleticism.

I know that Mac's combine scores were good, he is much faster than Brady, he was a very good tennis player, etc., etc. I would argue running fast does not equate to athleticism, my own definition would be: "athleticism is the ability to truly excel in sports". This can be superior hand-eye coordination, footwork, etc. And I would argue that a really superior athlete has the ability to excel in several sports. And it is in this area as rookies Brady and Brees showed their superior athleticism, BOTH could have been exceptional professional athletes in sports other than football.

• Brees. In addition to excelling at many sports in high school, he was once the top-ranked youth tennis player in Texas. The next best payer was Former World No. 1 player Andy Roddick CouldBreesHaveBeenaAllTimeTennisGreat .
• Brady: Despite his skinny look at the draft combine, Brady was an absolutely outstanding high school athlete and baseball prospect. Despite his love of Football, former Montreal Expos GM drafted Brady and said he could be a Hall of Fame Professional Baseball Catcher. CouldBradyHaveBeenAHallofFameBaseballCatcher His Serra high school coach Pete Jensen said: “I thought Tommy was a sure thing as a baseball player…even more a sure thing than (fellow Serra High alums) Gregg Jefferies or Barry Bonds, believe it or not” MoreOnBaseballBrady Other QBs drafted as baseball players include Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, John Elway, and Dan Marino. Not a bad group to belong to.

Mac is clearly a late bloomer physically (especially compared to Brees and Brady), so he could still become an excellent athlete in time in a NFL training program. But if you want to put a finger on what separates Mac as a rookie from rookie prospects like Brady and Brees, he isn't in the same league as a natural athlete, at least so far

Not sure Mac is a late bloomer - according to the accounts I have read he was a pretty excellent tennis player as a kid - and had a terrific HS football career. The fact that Mac serve is not his best shot is a little weird..but okay..

Almost all the top QB prospects were excellent athletes. One good way to see how athletic someone is - is look at the athletic exploits of their family. Mac Jones family scores pretty well. I think we are going to find out that the Mac Jones is a just a walking brain idea is a bit of bad scouting..

The media likes to run with narratives. The big one about Brady is how 'unathletic" he is. In reality as you point out he is a pretty damn athletic. I remember reading about Tom playing hoops with Jordan and he observers thought he looked pretty good. I can remember back to when Danny Ainge played baseball - and we heard that he would be to slow for pro hoops.. Well he wasn't. Ainge was pretty damn athletic..

 

[Bfanlc]

How important is it that Mac starts this year exactly? Let's try to find out by looking at every season from 1994-2020 (the salary cap era)

Notes – I consider someone a starter if they start the majority of the games in a season.

1994 – Steve Young won in arguably his 4th or 5th year starting and 10th year overall. After 2 to 3 failed post-season runs (depending on if you count one where he want in half way into a game for an injured Montana)
1995 – Troy Aikman won in his 4th, 5th and 7th year starting and overall (this being year 7). He lost in the playoffs 1 time,
1996 – Brett Favre – won in his 5th season starting. 6th overall. And lost in the playoffs 3 times before winning.
1997 – John Elway – won his 15th and 16th season starting and overall. He had 8 playoff eliminations before winning.
1998 – John Elway
1999 – Kurt Warner – won his 1st year starting and 2nd year in the league (at the age of 28). He had no playoff loses before this. It is worth noting that where he did play in the arena leagues he went to the championship game and lost twice. If that experience at all prepared him in anyway for the NFL, or if it was just maturity due to age that played a factor in the playoffs is something to ask yourself.
2000 – Trent Dilfer – won his 6th year starting and 7th in the league. He also went to the playoffs 1 time before this.
2001 – Tom Brady – Won his 1st year starting and 2nd year in the league. No one needs to be told it was his first playoff run.
2002 – Brad Johnson – Won his 6th year starting and 9th year in the league. He lost in the playoffs twice before winning.
2003 – Tom Brady
2004 – Tom Brady
2005 – Ben Roethlisberger – Won his 2nd year starting and 2nd year in the league. He lost in the playoffs once before.
2006 – Peyton Manning – Won his 9th year starting and 9th year in the league. He lost in the playoffs 6 times before winning
2007 – Eli Manning – Won his 3rd year starting and 4th year in the league. He lost in the playoffs 2 times before.
2008 – Ben Roethlisberger
2009 – Drew Brees – He won his 8th year starting and 9th year in the league. He lost in the playoffs 2 times before.
2010 – Aaron Rodgers – He won his 3rd year starting and 6th year in the league. He lost in the playoffs 1 time before.
2011 – Eli Manning
2012 – Joe Flacco – He won his 5th year starting and 5th year in the league. He lost in the playoffs 4 times before.
2013 – Russell Wilson – He won his 2nd year starting and 2nd year in the league. He lost in the playoffs 1 time before.
2014 – Tom Brady
2015 – Peyton Manning
2016 – Tom Brady
2017 – Nick Foles – He won his 6th year in the league and with 3 years starting before coming in late as a back up to win. He also had 1 playoff loss.
2018 – Tom Brady
2019 – Patrick Mahomes – won his 2nd year starting and 3rd year in the league. He lost 1 playoff game before winning.
2020 – Tom Brady

So now we have some data to go by. What can we draw from it?

Only 2 times in the salary cap era (maybe overall if you give allowances for early in the leagues history) have we had a QB win their first time in the playoffs. Both cases were very strange. A 28 year old rookie FA who came onto a super team and the GOAT. I think there is a reason these cases are outliers. Due to this, we can assume a team lead by a QB on first time in the playoffs will fail. But it will be a good learning experience to build on for future runs.

Most of the QBs who won, won in their first 5 years. In large part due to their contracts. This only supports the value of getting the maximum out of your rookie deal. The exceptions being HOFers who broke through late like Manning, Elway and Brees or low contract guys like Foles or Dilfer. Rodgers won in year 6, but he was on a cheap contract that year due to not playing and still being partly unproven.

Generally unless you get the GOAT or something crazy happens, you generally need a HOF QB or you have a 5 year window to win before your odds drop way down. Generally no one wins their first time in the playoffs. This means we need to get Mac in there at least twice. We also need to have Mac play the majority of games this year. We don't need a full season, but the switch must come with enough time to give him some good experience to build on for year 2 and beyond, historically speaking.

Finally, and perhaps most controversially. If Mac isn't HOF level, but a good starter. It is in our best interest to trade him if we don't win if the first 5 years. Guys you need to pay a lot of money to who are not HOF QBs have PROVEN to hurt more than help. You are better off looking to build the rest of your team, then get lucky at QB with a low paid guy over producing than to try to win without a HOF player at the spot.

Dilfer was paid 1M out of a 62M cap 1.6%
Johnson was paid 5.5 out of a 71M cap 7.8%
Manning (in 11') was paid 14M out of a 120M cap 11.6%
Foles/Wentz was paid 7.6M out of 208M cap cap 3.7%

Generally if you want to win a super bowl you have 2 options at QB. Either get a HOF guy or skimp on the position while building up the rest of your team and hope for a good cheap option to come along who will be serviceable enough, or get hot at the right time. A half measure of paying a good but not great QB in the salary cap era has been shown to be the WORST thing you can do.

I hope Mac can be HOF caliber, so we have a chance to win not only in these next 5 years, AND in the future after that. If not, then win or lose, he should be traded for value so the team can reset and try again.

Well he's starting so it's important that he plays. It would be crazy if he started but didn't play. That would be some next level ****.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Past analyses, which is flawed, claimed there is no difference or benefit to sitting a QB for a year, but this analysis always included crap QBs who are really bad and wouldn't have ever beat out the incumbent QB as a rookie. Of course one can make the data look inconclusive this way.

At the same time there is no data on QBs who were wrecked because they played their rookie year. There are always excuses for why guys like David Carr or Darnold failed.

Meanwhile the best of the best QBs of the last 20 years all happened to sit a year to learn first: Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes.

 

[JarOfMayo51]

Just remember that Mac is a rookie and he's going to have to weather some storms being thrown into a starting role week 1. Take the good with the bad, can't wait to see what this kid and this new look team can do!

 

[Zuma]

Just remember that Mac is a rookie and he's going to have to weather some storms being thrown into a starting role week 1. Take the good with the bad, can't wait to see what this kid and this new look team can do!

Everyone should remember that…there will be mistakes and it will be ugly at times. DO NOT FREAK OUT. We are playing for the near future and that may not be this year. Have patience.

 

[Patriot_fan989]

Mac Jones is Amendola re-incarnate

You heard it here first.

 

[zydecochris]

Everyone should remember that…there will be mistakes and it will be ugly at times. DO NOT FREAK OUT. We are playing for the near future and that may not be this year. Have patience.

That is what worries me too, an overreaction to normal Mac rookie mistakes.

I was listening to the Bill Simmons podcast on the way home and they were talking about the upcoming game, and they called it the “Overreaction Game”. They said after this game there was a certainty for a giant QB overreaction, with four possibilities (paraphrasing):
1. Tua still sucks, the Fins are doomed!!
2. Tua has made a giant leap, the next great QB!!
3. Mac sucks, the Pats are doomed!!
4. Mac is awesome, prepare his place in Canton!!

With each overreaction story line lasting exactly one week. For once I think they nailed it.

 

[Zuma]

That is what worries me too, an overreaction to normal Mac rookie mistakes.

I was listening to the Bill Simmons podcast on the way home and they were talking about the upcoming game, and they called it the “Overreaction Game”. They said after this game there was a certainty for a giant QB overreaction, with four possibilities (paraphrasing):
1. Tua still sucks, the Fins are doomed!!
2. Tua has made a giant leap, the next great QB!!
3. Mac sucks, the Pats are doomed!!
4. Mac is awesome, prepare his place in Canton!!

With each overreaction story line lasting exactly one week. For once I think they nailed it.

For sure one of those will happen...there will be no middle ground. In fact all of those will probably happen multiple times this season. Can wait for Sunday...go Pats !

 

[Mack Herron]

TR: One of the most overrated things is the ability of someone to run. It’s a huge advantage, because you can utilize that in certain downs and situations, but the reality is, whoever sees things faster is going to be better at the end of the day. If you can see stuff fast, you don’t have to run fast. If you don’t see things fast, it’s good to be able to run fast. There are guys who can see things fast and run fast. Steve Young, right? Lamar Jackson actually sees things, and he has the ability to run fast. He can do both, and that’s a rare trait.

But at its core, the position is played with your ability to process so much information so quickly and see leverage, movement… you understand in four steps that the linebacker can or can’t get here, and you start to make your decision early. Or you’re waiting to see if he got over here, right? I think Jones can do that. I think I’ve already seen that. I think I can watch a drive and tell you if he has the ability to see and have spatial awareness.

Bill Belichick isn’t making a decision like that lightly. He’s not guessing. He knows this kid has the ability to do things and repeat them over and over again. And run the offense. It sounds easy to say “run the offense,” but you can run the offense better when you know the responsibilities of the defenders, and you know leverage, and you can see it quickly.

Breaking down all five first-round rookie quarterbacks with Tony Romo

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touchdownwire.usatoday.com

 

[1960Pats]

Lamar Jackson has been better than Allen and everyone else from his class. Allen was awful up until last year. They basically take the same amount of sacks but Jackson is a much better moving the football with his legs. Look at the stats, Jackson has been more consistent.

Allen's stock is rising while Jackson's is falling, especially in the playoffs.
The question in this situation is which would we want as our QB. I'm pretty sure most fans would say Allen.