Midseason Evaluation

[Metaphors]

With no game on tap this weekend, thought it would be a good time to look at how effectively the Pats offense and defense are working together:

Time of Possession = 33:37 (#2 behind PIT at 34:34)
Turnover Margin = +11 (#1 with IND)

Now for some differentials between what the Pats offense gets and what the defense gives up:

Points per game = +23.1 (#1 ahead of PIT at +15.6)
Yards per game = +153.5 (#1 ahead of PIT at +114.6)
Yards per play = +1.5 (#2 behind DAL at +1.7)
1st downs per game = +8.7 (#1 ahead of PIT at +6.1)
3rd down percentage = +20% (#1 ahead of PIT at +12%)

Wanted to include special teams as well, but the stats are harder to come by and compare.

But what about strength of schedule? If you look at point differential, Pats have played 3 top 10 teams (at IND, at DAL, SD) and 2 more top half teams (CLE, WAS). The rest is garbage.

Dallas (Game of Century #1)? Played their tough games (NE, NYG, MIN) at home. Won at PHI, but they are sinking fast. Rest of the schedule is cake.

Indianapolis (GoC #2)? After playing at SD on Sunday, their schedule will be comparable with the Pats.

Pittsburgh (upcoming GoC #3)? Two good wins (SEA, at CLE), two bad losses (at ARZ, at DEN) and not much else to speak of.

 

[Dragda]

I'm not good at figuring out where to look up stats, but I wonder what the third down conversion percentage is for offense and defense. Aside from turnovers, this stat seem the most telling even over points allowed per game.

 

[Metaphors]

I'm not good at figuring out where to look up stats, but I wonder what the third down conversion percentage is for offense and defense. Aside from turnovers, this stat seem the most telling even over points allowed per game.

Pats convert 50% (#3 behind PIT and IND) and allow 30% (#1).

 

[zarakotas5]

I'm not good at figuring out where to look up stats, but I wonder what the third down conversion percentage is for offense and defense. Aside from turnovers, this stat seem the most telling even over points allowed per game.

NFL.com is a good place to start. You can find most of what you need, both team-wise and individually. For example:

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats;jsessionid=1C84F5327E1C6F83F028DEF0E14A1A26?season=&seasonType=REG&d-447263-o=2&conference=ALL&tabSeq=2&role=TM&statisticCategory=GAME_STATS&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=DOWN_3RD_PERCENTAGE&d-447263-n=1

From there, you can manuever around.

 

[DarrylS]

The only obvious omission is the rapidly improving defensive red zone defense, I think the Indy only scored on 1 of 3 trips to the red zone last week.. compare this to earlier in the year..

 

[Dom]

Special Teams:

Field Goal Percentage: 92% (joint 4th - Leader: Seattle at 94%)

Average Kickoff Length: 66.5 (6th - Leader: Kansas City at 68.8)

Kickoff Touchbacks: 14 (2nd - Leader: Oakland at 18)

Defensive Kickoff Returns: 22.1 (joint 7th - Leader: Tampa Bay at 17.4)

Kick Returns: 28.5 (1st)

Net Punting: 37.2 (19th - Leader: Oakland at 43.9)

Punt Returns: 11.6 (joint 6th - Leader: Chicago at 18.7)

That's most of the major categories done.

 

[stinkypete]

The only obvious omission is the rapidly improving defensive red zone defense, I think the Indy only scored on 1 of 3 trips to the red zone last week.. compare this to earlier in the year..

Funny. The Patriots inability to stop teams in the red zone was the reason Shannon Sharpe picked the Colts to win the game.

 

[ironwasp]

Funny. The Patriots inability to stop teams in the red zone was the reason Shannon Sharpe picked the Colts to win the game.

While I wouldn't say the red zone thing was a red herring earleir in the season it struck me as an unreliable indicator of defensive stregnth. Firstly, the Pats have pretty rarely had anyone in their red zone, and as often as not when teams have arrived down there, Miami, Washington etc... it's been at a time when the game is decided and any opposition score has lost its ability to influence the outcome of the game.

Would I have liked to see us keeping teams out of the end zone? Sure. And I daresay the players feel the same, but it's human nature to lower the intensity levels in circumstances that are simply not that intense.

When push came to shove on Sunday, the Pats D held up pretty well down there, particularly early on, and it was huge in the context of the game.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Special Teams:
Net Punting: 37.2 (19th - Leader: Oakland at 43.9)

One thing worth noting: the Pats have punted 21 times. Of those 21 punts:

6 went OOB
6 were fair catches
3 were downed by the Pats
3 were touchbacks (boo, hiss!)

In other words, only 3 of the 21 were returned--for a grand total of 22 yards.

 

[Metaphors]

Thanks for the special teams info. What I was looking for is a differential between coverage/return...meaning how much better/worse are the return teams vs. the corresponding coverage teams. Then comparing that differential to the other teams.

I don't know of an easy way to do that, but it would give a good indication of the net yardage (hidden yards) that special teams is giving to the offense and defense. If I had to guess, I would think it would be significant...but it is hard to tell.

The stats seem to indicate complementary play between the offense and defense (they make each other better). I have the impression that the special teams also play into this but it is hard to quantify.

 

[PatsFan37]

One thing worth noting: the Pats have punted 21 times. Of those 21 punts:

6 went OOB
6 were fair catches
3 were downed by the Pats
3 were touchbacks (boo, hiss!)

In other words, only 3 of the 21 were returned--for a grand total of 22 yards.

I thought Hanson came up really big for the Pats on Sunday.