Marcus Mariota

[luuked]

Playoffs are more important that regular season.

And this is where you and I disagree. To me a bigger sample size is always more relevant than looking at some games in isolation just because they happen to be playoff games. A regular season game is as valuable as a data point as the friggin SB when it comes to evaluating players.

Something positive or negative that happens in a game in January doesn't invalidate or change what happened the 16 weeks before that. If your interpretation of a season changes based on the outcome of the postseason then you should try to fix that cognitive bias.

 

[DW Toys]

And this is where you and I disagree. To me a bigger sample size is always more relevant than looking at some games in isolation just because they happen to be playoff games. A regular season game is as valuable as a data point as the friggin SB when it comes to evaluating players.

Something positive or negative that happens in a game in January doesn't invalidate or change what happened the 16 weeks before that. If your interpretation of a season changes based on the outcome of the postseason then you should try to fix that cognitive bias.

Very astute sir.
DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

It's a very tough situation the Pats are in... the QB market is wildly overvalued at the moment. So the 15 is only likely to get you a player like Jimmy, Carr, or MAYBE Darnold. Since NONE of those guys are likely to give you many wins above average the value isn't there IMO. BUT...the 15 also is too high for a shot a the only "surefire" prospect which is Lawrence.

And the free agents are free for a reason.

So there aren't many great options.

I suspect what happens is Newton returns, and they also sign a guy like Smith or Fitz and let them compete in TC while grabbing a player like Newman in the 3rd.

Note that I didn't say I LIKE the above scenario but I think that's what we are looking at.

Cousin, I do not think Darmold is going to be moved unless there is a major offer. Why? Even if the Jets Draft a QB in Round 1, you need a Vet to at least pair with him.
Next year would be the time to move Darnold. He is still cheap.
DW Toys

 

[Sicilian]

just makes me nervous that BB hasn’t released him yet

Maybe because he's not under contract for 2021?

 

[upstater1]

And this is where you and I disagree. To me a bigger sample size is always more relevant than looking at some games in isolation just because they happen to be playoff games. A regular season game is as valuable as a data point as the friggin SB when it comes to evaluating players.

Something positive or negative that happens in a game in January doesn't invalidate or change what happened the 16 weeks before that. If your interpretation of a season changes based on the outcome of the postseason then you should try to fix that cognitive bias.

I just can't believe you're even writing this.

I can't fathom how you can possibly write it.

A QB that racks up stats in the regular season and then stinks in the biggest games is not much of a QB at all.

Here we have Brady performing at the highest levels during the regular season and then transcending all other QBs in the postseason. That means he's in the very top echelon of the elite. This is just so quite basic.

The playoffs are another level of play. Faster, harder, better teams. Everyone acknowledges this except you. And it's not just one game for Brady. It is multiple games. He had a top tier regular season to!

 

[luuked]

Here we have Brady performing at the highest levels during the regular season and then transcending all other QBs in the postseason. That means he's in the very top echelon of the elite. This is just so quite basic.

Again, you are just retroactively applying what he has been in the last decade+ to what he was in his first few years. And this conversation is going in circles because you don't seem to realize that. He was not an elite player in his first couple of years no matter how much your narrative wants it to be true. He grew into that player from 2001 to 2006. The numbers show it and the way BB constructed the team around him shows it.

A QB that racks up stats in the regular season and then stinks in the biggest games is not much of a QB at all.

That is your opinion because you are clearly an outcome-centric person. I don't give a **** about the results of games at all when it comes to evaluating players or decisions. Outcomes have not much to do with how to evaluate the performance of someone.

This is not tennis or chess, but a sport with a crazy level of randomness and uncertainty to it where the smallest things like a coach deciding on a play late can lead to a RB being late on the field, not finding his protection assignment and giving up a strip sack to end a team's season. Or an opponent lining up randomly in the neutral zone far from the playside and overturning a potential season ending pick.

But whatever you are just talking in circles.

 

[upstater1]

Again, you are just retroactively applying what he has been in the last decade+ to what he was in his first few years.

No, I said the opposite of that. I said that hi stats were top of the league for what it was at the time. I actually said you are looking at today's inflated stats and applying that standard to what things were like prior to the rule changes. The two best QBs of the 98-2003 period (prior to the rules changes) threw for 20 INTs with regularity (Manning and Favre). Brady's numbers were top of the league + great playoff performance. You're taking Aaron Rodgers numbers and applying them to young Brady which is totally absurd. Compare Brady to Favre, not to Rodgers.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

This narrative driven myth-building is getting boring. His ANY/A tells his whole story of development. He was an average QB over his first 3 seasons as a starter (2001-2003: < 6 ANY/A), then made a jump into good/great territory (< 7 ANY/A) the next 3 years before joining the elite club ever since in 2007 (multiple seasons of > 8 ANY/A, average somewhere in the higher 7s).

It is very obvious in his numbers and even more so in the way that BB build those teams.

Having individually great games like you are citing above doesn't make someone good, great or elite. It is the consistency that puts you there.

On another note I don't understand why people want to remove from existence what gives his story as a player a lot more depth just to pretend that he was someone amazingly gifted from the start. He wasn't. He has been a grinder that worked tirelessly to get to where he is by absorbing every bit of football knowledge -- whether that is from self-scouting, film or coaches -- and having the capacity to deploy it. None of this lessens his legacy but actually elevates it.

2000 offense and 2001 offense (weeks 1&2): 16.8 points per game
2001 offense (weeks 3-16): 24.6 points per game

Of course Brady was not an average QB. It took great quarterbacking play to take a cast of misfits to become a very good overall offense. Drew Bledsoe, considered one of the better QBs in the league, couldn't even lead the offense to respectability.

Brady:

• Increased the 2001 offense +7.8 ppg and flipped their record from 5-13 to 14-3
• Led the league in TD passes in 2002
• Finished 3rd in MVP voting in 2003. The team won 14 games, though they had one of the worst running games in football at 3.4 ypa
• If he had retired at the end of 2003, he would have at the time been the only QB besides Joe Montana with more than 3 postseason game winning drives and multiple Super Bowl MVP awards. He had more postseason heroics by that point in his career than almost any QB of the Super Bowl era.

With the skill players the Patriots had (or more accurately, they didn't have) from 2001-03, they finished ranked 6th, 10th, and 12th in points scored. You're right that the offense wasn't elite, but Brady average? Ridiculous. That he carried such an underpowered offensive cast to above average is remarkable.

You can't just start with the reference point that "this offense is average" with an average QB and therefore let's judge Brady by his results. They were way below average. With Bledsoe, this was a bottom ranked unit. It's not that much different than 2020 when we saw "average" is not the floor for the Patriots offense. Cam Newton, Jarrett Stidham, and Brian Hoyer all looked like idiots out there, and it would have taken some outstanding QB play just for them to have a decent passing game.

 

[Triumph]

Mariota is a bust. Cheap backup at best.

 

[Cam2HarryGOAT]

i really think a guy like mariota/brissett/trubisky IS who you're going to see under center next year.......and i'm ok with that

I could live with the first two as bridge QBs. I want no part of Trubisky. I think Fitz would be my first choice if we are talking bridge QBs though. I could see him having a Tannehill type resurgence (without the playoff choking) if we put some weapons on the field for him besides Meyers and Harris

 

[thecore762]

Meh, none of these QBs will help much. Hell I rather take on Winston over Mariota. Cannon arm, yes he turned the ball over a lot but under the right coaching he might actually succeed in this league.
But either way these guys probably not good enough to help us win playoffs games.

 

[varjao]

I always hated the idea of bringing Mariota last year, he's a so so QB, seems to be lazy, slow, I remember some games with the Titans he was so slow in the handoff with the RB the rushers would tackle him by his back. I'm not sure he loves the game or has motivation issues.

But his game with the Raiders impressed me this last season, he also had good games here and there with the Titans. It can be a good reclamation project. I'm curious with Truby as well but for me JimmyG is a much superior option than these two.

Brissett is not an option for me, I think we should talk about players somewhat on starter level or that at least with significant experience as starters. Brissett has always been a backup from the start.

 

[slash83]

Bring Jimmy home.

 

[Cam2HarryGOAT]

Meh, none of these QBs will help much. Hell I rather take on Winston over Mariota. Cannon arm, yes he turned the ball over a lot but under the right coaching he might actually succeed in this league.
But either way these guys probably not good enough to help us win playoffs games.

I am done with this team until Bill is gone if they sign that rapist POS. That's a line too far for me. I am not rooting for the a Chiefs type organization. I don't think Kraft would allow it. And coaching wont change the fact that the scumbag is a moron.

 

[captain stone]

Not trading for Mariota unless more players are involved AND the compensation is only a Day 3 draft pick...a Late Day-3 pick...

 

[PatsWSB47]

Here's where a stats based elite definition fails. Quarterback A is 2 for 3 on 10 drives and throws one bomb for a touchdown. Quarterback B is 1 for 3 on 10 drives and his running back runs for 3 touchdowns. Which quarterback has the more elite stats? Quarterback A has the higher rating. However Quarterback B threw for 1st downs on all his 3rd downs and marched his team down the field repeatedly and his running back completed the drive with touchdowns. Quarterback A had the better percentage but his misses were all 3rd down misses except the one bomb. Brady's elite status was his clutch play. His stats weren't all that bad either

 

[Love The Drake]

Gilmore for Mariota with a 4th coming back would be solid

 

[50-yard-line]

There are a ton of possibilities out there, but no matter which name comes up, half the board will whine.

Bottom line: WHO?

You're not getting a Wilson or a Watson, so that leaves three choice groups:

Total bridge to draft development: Fitz, Smith, Ryan etc.

Vet possibilities to take over the team and give it a go: Wentz, Mariota, Jimmy, Brissett, Winston, etc.

Draft pick to jump right in: Fuhgettaboutit.

So where to go? I prefer the vet route. And I think that's where we'll be. Big trade for Wentz and Ertz, or a lesser trade for Mariota/Carr or Jimmy, or an FA flyer. I'd like to see him grab on of these guys and maybe take a Minshew or a Josh Rosen or someone to develop behind them as a second possible blooming.

I don't see BB trading up to grab a QB he thinks he can start in a year or so. Too much back-to-square-one possibility there, as so many just BUST. I think it's more likely we get one of these young, under-performing guys and a mid-round pick.

 

[DW Toys]

Gilmore for Mariota with a 4th coming back would be solid

Cousins,
Started off this morning with home made apricot bread and cream cheese warmed with cut strawberries on top. Plus coffee and orange juice.

Not a bad trade! Touche.
Here is the problem. Most posters here think BB is going to go on indefinitely.Some scribes even say to tank this yera.......why? Do we have the 1989 Cowboys Draft class stacking up for the Pats and available in 2022?

BB is quietly on a revenge tour in 2021. TB12 Superbowl cut him deep. You can say he had a lot of the blame in 2020 and even before for his stubbornness in trying to make Tier three FAs into Tier one stars.

I think the Krafts had a lot more to do with the Roster than appears.

Josh Gordon and Antonio Brown were good attempts but in the end (it was their own doing,) the Krafts wanted no drama.Yes TB was kept over Jimmie G but the results were still viable. I think BB would have kept Brown.

Well now the franchise took a big hit this year as far as legacy. BB wants to change that now. A rookie QB is not the answer. Lawrence will be good but will take years to pull that franchise up.

"Butt Fumble Sanchez and Ravens' Joe Flacco are the only rookies since the 1970 merger to win multiple playoff games in their first season. No rookie quarterback has ever led his team to a Super Bowl."

If you read that least sentence and as I have mentioned, BB has a shelf life now, the odds say he goes for a Veteran with an upside on Cam. Cam was not all bad (he was a awful as a passing QB but a very decent leader) . I think his Team mates loved him and wated to play for him. He was a "broken" thrower.I am not a Cam fan but he loved the game and had fun.
If you could install that quality in Mariota, you'd have something.

It might not be the cast of characters you see available at QB. It could be a Kurt Cousins. It could be Alex Smith (watched his tape......he was not that bad this year) and I still lean toward Gardner Minshew or Kyle Allen (who they tried for) because they are cheap enough to allow us to fill spots. A shocker might be Daniel Jones of the Giants who has been mediocre and was not signed by the present staff so no allegiance there. The Giants Draft 11th. They started Jones as a Rookie and it was not that good. Their O Line is not great and got him in bad situations. Maybe a Trey Lance for them might work....They are retooling and a Rookie QB would be O.K. Picking up a high pick from the Pats would help them.Can Josh fix this kid?

In the end it's what BB puts around any QB. Not enough now.
DW Toys

 

[DW Toys]

There are a ton of possibilities out there, but no matter which name comes up, half the board will whine.

Bottom line: WHO?

You're not getting a Wilson or a Watson, so that leaves three choice groups:

Total bridge to draft development: Fitz, Smith, Ryan etc.

Vet possibilities to take over the team and give it a go: Wentz, Mariota, Jimmy, Brissett, Winston, etc.

Draft pick to jump right in: Fuhgettaboutit.

So where to go? I prefer the vet route. And I think that's where we'll be. Big trade for Wentz and Ertz, or a lesser trade for Mariota/Carr or Jimmy, or an FA flyer. I'd like to see him grab on of these guys and maybe take a Minshew or a Josh Rosen or someone to develop behind them as a second possible blooming.

I don't see BB trading up to grab a QB he thinks he can start in a year or so. Too much back-to-square-one possibility there, as so many just BUST. I think it's more likely we get one of these young, under-performing guys and a mid-round pick.

Great post!
DW Toys