I'm looking at this from the perspective of the current team, Detroit.
- Trading Stafford prior to June 1 - ie, when other teams are interested in making a deal - results in a huge cap savings.
- Rather than the current $33 mil cap hit, it becomes $19 mil - a savings of $14 mil.
- On the other hand that also means the new regime is dedicating $19 mil of their 2021 cap to a person who is not there in dead money.
- What happens once they commit to drafting a QB at #7, regardless of how many QBs are off the board?
For those that propose a post-June 1 trade, keep in mind that deal doesn't make sense for either side.
- If they draft a QB in the first round the Lions lose all leverage during Stafford trade negotiations.
- Meanwhile Brad Homs and Dan Campbell would have been unable to be a buyer in free agency since they were stuck with Stafford's $33 mil cap number, while entering 2021 free agency with virtually no money to spend ($2 mil).
Bottom line is that trading Stafford means that the new management is implicitly going to admit 2021 will be an awful season. The Ford family didn't hire a new regime to have a worse season than the Lions had in 2020.