It’s worth noting that 6 of those 11 were the same guy who was an extreme outlier they thus far has occurred exactly one time in the SB era.
Let’s go through it
2001: Brady the outlier
2002: Brad Johnson 9th round pick who got carried. Never player more than 50 games for a single team.
2003. Brady the outlier
2004: Brady the outlier
2005: Ben 11th overall
2006: Peyton Manning 1st overall
2007: Eli Manning 1st overall
2008: Ben 11th overall
2009: Brees 32nd overall
2010: Rodgers 24th overall
2011: Eli Manning 1st overall
2012: Flacco 18th overall
—— I hope you realize that right here guys picked in the first 32 spots won 8 consecutive SB’s
2013: 75th overall
2014: Brady the outlier
2015: Peyton Manning 1st overall
2016: Brady the outlier
2017: Foles 88th overall *ill get to this later.
2018: Brady the outlier
2019: Mahomes 10th overall.
Since Brady got here, 1st round picks (most of them high) account for 10 of the 19 SB’s. Of the 9 remaining Brady accounts for 6, Foles who got granted a first seed basically road Wentz who was a 2nd overall to the playoffs so you have to give Wentz some credit for even giving them the position to do it, that leaves Johnsob and Wilson.
Then for multiple SB wins since the 2000’s it’s
Brady: outlier at pick 199
Ben: pick 11
Peyton: pick 1
Eli: pick 1
so 3 of the 4 multi SB winners were high first round.
The reason I keep bringing up Brady is an outlier is because no QB in the SB era had even a 10th of the success being drafted that late. It’s like hoping for lighting to strike as a strategy. Meanwhile you have first overalls like Aikman, Elway, Bradshaw, and even Jim Plunkett who account for 11 SB’s. Add the 4 from the Manning’s and the 1st overall pick accounts for 15 of 54. Drop that to top 16 and you can add Namath (16), Dawson (17), Griese (18), McMahon (19), Simms (20), Dilfer (21.... he didn’t a first round game manager job), Ben (22, 23), Peyton and Eli (gets you to 27), Mahomes (28).
And now all of a sudden 28 of 54 SB winning QB were in the top 16 picks. That’s 51%. If it’s about winning SB’s....