Oficial Post Game Thread- Pats beat the Cardinals

[Twentytothree]

Data is very clear. 75% to 80% of the QB’s league is a first round pick. The preponderance in the top 10 of the draft.

The starting QBs for the majority of NFL teams were NOT drafted by their current team in the top 10. A handful were acquired by trade/FA and another dozen or more were drafted outside of the top 10. As I showed before, for the 10 strongest teams at the moment the number is 3/10 drafted by current team in top 10.

The idea that the Patriots need to tank to become contenders again remains laughable. Moving the goal posts from need to draft "top 10" to "somewhere in the first round" makes no sense, as obviously no tanking is necessary for drafting a QB somewhere in the first round.

In any case, BB is not going to tank. The core of his philosophy is to compete.

 

[lancerman]

The starting QBs for the majority of NFL teams were NOT drafted by their current team in the top 10. A handful were acquired by trade/FA and another dozen or more were drafted outside of the top 10. As I showed before, for the 10 strongest teams at the moment the number is 3/10 drafted by current team in top 10.

The idea that the Patriots need to tank to become contenders again remains laughable. Moving the goal posts from need to draft "top 10" to "somewhere in the first round" makes no sense, as obviously no tanking is necessary for drafting a QB somewhere in the first round.

In any case, BB is not going to tank. The core of his philosophy is to compete.

The core of his philosophy is to win.

 

[DaBruinz]

Caserio actually said that they landed 2 of the 3 guys they were targeting in the second round. Dugger and Uche.

Personnel head Nick Caserio assesses Patriots’ Day 2 picks

Caserio breaks down what the Patriots like about each of their Day 2 selections

www.bostonherald.com

And Dugger looks like an absolute hit. He is fast, consistent against the run and competent in coverage in his rookie year. There is nothing not to like about him. Uche also has looked the part but with a smaller sample size so far.

That doesn't support Stone's claims that they went with Dugger because McKinney was gone.. We have no idea who the 3 guy was. Just that they got 2 of they guys they wanted.

 

[Uptown]

 

[luuked]

That doesn't support Stone's claims that they went with Dugger because McKinney was gone.. We have no idea who the 3 guy was. Just that they got 2 of they guys they wanted.

I think you are misunderstanding my point. I am saying they clearly targeted Dugger after seeing him at the Senior Bowl.

The breadcrumbs are all there in various interviews. On the other hand there is no indication they were into McKinney outside the meeting at the Combine which by all accounts didn't go well.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

It’s worth noting that 6 of those 11 were the same guy who was an extreme outlier they thus far has occurred exactly one time in the SB era.

Let’s go through it

2001: Brady the outlier

2002: Brad Johnson 9th round pick who got carried. Never player more than 50 games for a single team.

2003. Brady the outlier

2004: Brady the outlier

2005: Ben 11th overall

2006: Peyton Manning 1st overall

2007: Eli Manning 1st overall

2008: Ben 11th overall

2009: Brees 32nd overall

2010: Rodgers 24th overall

2011: Eli Manning 1st overall

2012: Flacco 18th overall

—— I hope you realize that right here guys picked in the first 32 spots won 8 consecutive SB’s

2013: 75th overall

2014: Brady the outlier

2015: Peyton Manning 1st overall

2016: Brady the outlier

2017: Foles 88th overall *ill get to this later.

2018: Brady the outlier

2019: Mahomes 10th overall.

Since Brady got here, 1st round picks (most of them high) account for 10 of the 19 SB’s. Of the 9 remaining Brady accounts for 6, Foles who got granted a first seed basically road Wentz who was a 2nd overall to the playoffs so you have to give Wentz some credit for even giving them the position to do it, that leaves Johnsob and Wilson.

Then for multiple SB wins since the 2000’s it’s

Brady: outlier at pick 199

Ben: pick 11

Peyton: pick 1

Eli: pick 1

so 3 of the 4 multi SB winners were high first round.

The reason I keep bringing up Brady is an outlier is because no QB in the SB era had even a 10th of the success being drafted that late. It’s like hoping for lighting to strike as a strategy. Meanwhile you have first overalls like Aikman, Elway, Bradshaw, and even Jim Plunkett who account for 11 SB’s. Add the 4 from the Manning’s and the 1st overall pick accounts for 15 of 54. Drop that to top 16 and you can add Namath (16), Dawson (17), Griese (18), McMahon (19), Simms (20), Dilfer (21.... he didn’t a first round game manager job), Ben (22, 23), Peyton and Eli (gets you to 27), Mahomes (28).

And now all of a sudden 28 of 54 SB winning QB were in the top 16 picks. That’s 51%. If it’s about winning SB’s....

So 9 Superbowl trips were with a low QB pick. Hmm. Tell me also what are the chances a 7th rd QB becomes a leading slot receiver. Or 2 undrafted CBs making the pro bowl. What are the odds ???

.

 

[Twentytothree]

The core of his philosophy is to win.

Can't win without competing

 

[lancerman]

So 9 Superbowl trips were with a low QB pick. Hmm. Tell me also what are the chances a 7th rd QB becomes a leading slot receiver. Or 2 undrafted CBs making the pro bowl. What are the odds ???

.

Both odds are a lot lower than picking them high. If you wanted to use Tom Brady’s existence to throw off all the numbers that’s fine, but also acknowledge Tom Brady as an anomaly that happened once in the last half century at his position and recognize that it’s doubtful we see another player as successful as Tom Brady much less one at a pick that low in the next 20 years and quite frankly if we do, the odds that it’s our team again that benefits are astronomical.

Hoping on another Tom Brady is not a valid strategy unless you want to put the team in purgatory.

There’s no risk less option. But there are options that have far higher success rates. It might mean you have to pick early in the draft and take a chance on someone.

 

[Lagaffe_07]

After this Cam performance, I really want to see Stidham play. Not because I think he will be the next Tom Brady and our futur starter. I want to see him just because I want to try something else. If the fact that he doesn’t play means that Bill know what he has which is not an NFL caliber player because Cam is maybe the worst starting QB in the league. So I really don’t understand why he is dressing every Sunday as our backup if he can’t play.

Imo something happened during training camp that led Stidham in the dugout.

maybe everyone is right and it will be worse with him but there is chance that it could be better also. You have nothing to lose in trying at worst you have a better draft pick. I just think Bill told Cam that he will ride him out no matter what

 

[lancerman]

Can't win without competing

Can’t compete without talent. Chicken and egg.

 

[lancerman]

After this Cam performance, I really want to see Stidham play. Not because I think he will be the next Tom Brady and our futur starter. I want to see him just because I want to try something else. If the fact that he doesn’t play means that Bill know what he has which is not an NFL caliber player because Cam is maybe the worst starting QB in the league. So I really don’t understand why he is dressing every Sunday as our backup if he can’t play.

Imo something happened during training camp that led Stidham in the dugout.

maybe everyone is right and it will be worse with him but there is chance that it could be better also. You have nothing to lose in trying at worst you have a better draft pick. I just think Bill told Cam that he will ride him out no matter what

I think it’s a lot simpler. Cam for all his issues, is likely just better and helps the team more. He can run, teams still respect him on the run and it helps with our running backs sometimes. Stidham has also made boneheaded plays and costly turnovers every single time he hit the field. That probably is something they are seeing with him and they might value Cam with more mechanics extending some plays over the guy who seems to be unable to read coverage.

Personally I would be shocked if he was on the team this year. The Chiefs game proved that Bill would rather go with Hoyer. It could simply be, Covid makes having depth matter and Stidham is cheap depth.

 

[DropKickFlutie]

Both odds are a lot lower than picking them high. If you wanted to use Tom Brady’s existence to throw off all the numbers that’s fine, but also acknowledge Tom Brady as an anomaly that happened once in the last half century at his position and recognize that it’s doubtful we see another player as successful as Tom Brady much less one at a pick that low in the next 20 years and quite frankly if we do, the odds that it’s our team again that benefits are astronomical.

Hoping on another Tom Brady is not a valid strategy unless you want to put the team in purgatory.

There’s no risk less option. But there are options that have far higher success rates. It might mean you have to pick early in the draft and take a chance on someone.

All I'm saying is yes those stats may be right, but Belichick himself is a massive anomaly. If we had an avg GM or avg coach I agree. But this guy pulls elite players out of nowhere all the time. Brady, Edelman, Butler, JC Jackson, Lawrence Guy, a lot of others. So I'm not convinced burning a first round pick on a QB is necessary. In fact I think going defense is tbe way to go. The aggregate history doesn't apply if Belichick is here because he's the GOAT.

.

 

[lancerman]

All I'm saying is yes those stats may be right, but Belichick himself is a massive anomaly. If we had an avg GM or avg coach I agree. But this guy pulls elite players out of nowhere all the time. Brady, Edelman, Butler, JC Jackson, Lawrence Guy, a lot of others. So I'm not convinced burning a first round pick on a QB is necessary. In fact I think going defense is tbe way to go. The aggregate history doesn't apply if Belichick is here because he's the GOAT.

.

Belichick has one playoff win without an elite QB. He’s the greatest coach ever, but he can’t defy logic.

If the strategy is hope for something unlikely, don’t be surprised if next year we are in the same spot

 

[Nunchucks]

I think it’s a lot simpler. Cam for all his issues, is likely just better and helps the team more. He can run, teams still respect him on the run and it helps with our running backs sometimes. Stidham has also made boneheaded plays and costly turnovers every single time he hit the field. That probably is something they are seeing with him and they might value Cam with more mechanics extending some plays over the guy who seems to be unable to read coverage.

Personally I would be shocked if he was on the team this year. The Chiefs game proved that Bill would rather go with Hoyer. It could simply be, Covid makes having depth matter and Stidham is cheap depth.

Except that Stidhim is now the number 2.

 

[lancerman]

Except that Stidhim is now the number 2.

Well yeah, Hoyer got benched in his one moment to be a back up. Stidham would likely have gotten benched too if there was another QB available

 

[NYCPATS4LIFE]

If cam comes back and we upgrade the wr position are they the favorites for the division next season? I’m not the biggest cam fan. They likely missed out on a opportunity to get a franchise QB this year. I don’t know if it makes them the favorite. They will need to find a QB. I don’t think cam isn’t a Super Bowl QB at this point.

 

[luuked]

Except that Stidhim is now the number 2.

Because the assumption that there was some minor upside of Hoyer's experience in the system and veteran status making him able to hold the fort melted away the same way he melted away at the end of Q2 in KC.

At that point he became a progress blocker for Stidham. That doesn't necessarily mean he started performing better in his limited practice reps.

 

[Nunchucks]

Because the assumption that there was some minor upside of Hoyer's experience in the system and veteran status making him able to hold the fort melted away the same way he melted away at the end of Q2 in KC.

At that point he became a progress blocker for Stidham. That doesn't necessarily mean he started performing better in his limited practice reps.

All I know is that he is now number 2 and is the first in line if cam gets pulled.

 

[sb1]

Stidham is Number 2 all right.

 

[Nehalem]

After this Cam performance, I really want to see Stidham play. Not because I think he will be the next Tom Brady and our futur starter. I want to see him just because I want to try something else. If the fact that he doesn’t play means that Bill know what he has which is not an NFL caliber player because Cam is maybe the worst starting QB in the league. So I really don’t understand why he is dressing every Sunday as our backup if he can’t play.

Imo something happened during training camp that led Stidham in the dugout.

maybe everyone is right and it will be worse with him but there is chance that it could be better also. You have nothing to lose in trying at worst you have a better draft pick. I just think Bill told Cam that he will ride him out no matter what

Because Edelman is on injured reserve and the #3 QB is Brian Hoyer.