It’s a crapshoot. In the last 21 years 16 QBs were drafted #1 overall. They were the can’t miss franchise changer. The only one to win a SB was Eli Manning.
Huge difference between consensus can’t miss picks like Elway/Manning/Luck and now Lawrence who almost everyone see’s coming a mile away and is about as NFL ready as you can get.... and guys like Mayfield, Goff, Eli, Murray etc who were the best prospect in the draft but there was the understanding that they were not going to be world beaters out the gate.
Also using Super Bowls as the end all be all metric if extremely faulty and really kinda shows that we’ve been a bit spoiled. One it presumes the team is actually functionable. The Browns are a disaster to hold it all on Mayfield is stupid. Then you have outlier situations like Brady who is a 6th rounder that ate up 6 rings. That’s not an occurrence that happened in the 35 SB’s before Brady and likely won’t happen for the next 30 after he retires. So it’s prone to outliers. Likewise Nick Foles won a SB but he’s not someone you would ever want here long term.
1998: Peyton Manning. Won 2 SB’s. Consistent contender.
1999: Tim Couch. Was on the Browns. Franchise is a disaster. The second pick was McNabb who changed a losing franchise into a winning one and went 4 NFCCG’d in a row including a SB and then another.
2000: bad QB draft. None in the top 10
2001: Michael Vick. Was a strong franchise QB. Probably the proto type for modern running QB’s. Nobody would say he didn’t make Atlanta relevant.
2002: David Carr, bust
2003: Carson Palmer was a good franchise QB. Very good. Got plagued with injuries later
2004: Eli Manning. 2 SB’s. The next QB was Rivers who made the Chargers relevant again. The next was Ben 2SB’s
2005: Alex Smith who had a strong career as a franchise QB. Not super elite but he was strongly consistent and limited mistakes and could win with a good team
2006: No number 1 overall. Vince Young was the only top 5 QB. He was good. He has injury issues.
2007 Jamarcus Russell. Bust. It was also a bad class and he was the only QB worth taking in round 1
2008: not a number 1, but Ryan was the first QB taken at 3. MVP and made a SB. Complete franchise guy. Falcons are happy with him
2009. Stafford. Franchise QB. Every one considers him solid. Stuck on Lions who are garbage
2010 Bradford. Again decent but had injury issues that derailed his career.
2011 Cam Newton. I know it’s in vogue to **** on him. But he’s been a solid player his first 10 years, was an MVP, made the SB, made his franchise relevant last decade. Later on injury issues hurt.
2012 Luck. Nobody considers him a failure. Brought a bad team to the playoffs on impact was in a conference title game his 2nd year, injuries and bad protection reigned his career. His franchise killed him. The board would kill for a healthy Luck
2013: terrible QB draft. First was chosen at 16. N/A
2014: again a bad draft. The Jaguars needed somebody so they got Bortles, but he wasn’t hyper like you were talking and a team like the Texans that could have used a QB skipped him for a DE
2015. Winston.. this was not a cant miss prospect. He’s consistently been the same dude he was in college. Just the best of a bad bunch.
2016: Goff. Solid starter. Made a SB. Was considered an MVP candidate after Mahomes in 2018. Still part of competetive teams.
2017. Mayfield. He’s decent. Not great but the best the Browns ever had. Was rookie of the year. Has pulled out some solid wins. The time since he’s been drafted has been the best for that franchise.
2019: Murray. Currently leading a winning team that used to be abysmal.
2020. Burrow. Looks great but the Bengals will get him killed.
Most ended up being franchise QB’s. This last decade Winston and Bradford were the only outright number 1 overall busts. One was an injury thing than other was a guy part of weak draft that ended up being the same guy he was in college. Yeah there are a handful of busts overall. But you mostly had solid starters. That’s not including all the other guys that were drafted early that had great careers.
Hate to break it to you.... Tom Brady ain’t walking through that door. You could pick in the 6th round every draft for 20 years and you won’t find a guy half as good as Brady.
Now if we go by your metric of SB winners. Since 2000 outside of Brady: Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson. Ben Roethlisberger, Peyton Manning. Drew Brees. Aaron Rodgers. Eli Manning. Joe Flacco. Wilson. Foles. Mahomes. Nobody on this site would want Dilfer, Johnson or Foles a long term.
So.... you have Ben (11th overall), Peyton 1 overall, Eli 1 overall, Flacco 18th overall, Rodgers 24th overall (who was considered a massive draft slide), Brees 32 overall, Mahomes 10th overall and Wilson 75 overall. The only multi winners are two number 1’s and an 11, the only that would be outside the first round in the modern draft structure is Wilson. So I guess you can hope for some once in a generations slides. But really even then most of those are organizational.