2020 NEP Draft Big Board/Draft

[BaconGrundleCandy]

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Very good to see. His movements look clean & efficient. Didn't see any laboring, hitches or anything to suggest he's not on track. Ball didn't have a ton of zip but that's to be expected. This was probably the first time he's thrown this many passes at this pace in a long, long time. Not bad. Again big news here is his movements. They look clean and easy.

 

[mgteich]

Interesting. Personally I think the Pats should do whatever it takes to trade up and get Tua. Assuming his workouts go well.

So, if his workouts go well (and they did) you'd be willing to give at least 3 firsts for Tua? Our entire 2020 draft wouldn't be close to enough.

The open question is whether MIA moves up for Tua. They certainly have the ammunition.

 

[captain stone]

**** Chris Mortensen.

 

[slam]

I looked for players who tested best in the drills we favor/prefer. Then slotted them by talent/projection with that in mind. * Next to a name means they tested top 5-10 at their position.

Big Board ...

2020 NEP Big Board.xlsx

I'll have most if not all my grading done tonight. You'll be able to find those here ...
Draft grades (2011-present)
DRAFT GRADES - HISTORY 2011-PRESENT.xlsx


Any questions, comments feel free to ask or shoot your shot.

Great work. I've been using this to play with the mock draft simulators. You find certain players that you wind up drafting a lot as this assessment rates some players higher than the field, like OT Hakeem Adeniji, C Cesar Ruiz, LB Markus Bailey, and the blue Safety tier. And that big group of WRs tend to go very quickly so that you don't always get a blue tier WR when the Pats' 3rd round picks come around.

I have a question about the board in general. Do you exclude the players at the top of the draft which the Pats have little chance at getting a shot at? Like Chase Young, Tua, and Burrow. Or do they somehow not fit the Pats' scheme?

 

[PF_SU]

Several teams doing serious research on QB Love

Among teams doing varying levels of homework on Love, according to sources: Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, New England Patriots, Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers and Washington Redskins, among several others.

I would love it if Love is still available at 23 and the Chargers were desperate enough to trade 37, 71 and a 2021 first to move up...

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Great work. I've been using this to play with the mock draft simulators. You find certain players that you wind up drafting a lot as this assessment rates some players higher than the field, like OT Hakeem Adeniji, C Cesar Ruiz, LB Markus Bailey, and the blue Safety tier. And that big group of WRs tend to go very quickly so that you don't always get a blue tier WR when the Pats' 3rd round picks come around.

I have a question about the board in general. Do you exclude the players at the top of the draft which the Pats have little chance at getting a shot at? Like Chase Young, Tua, and Burrow. Or do they somehow not fit the Pats' scheme?

That's one of the main things the board brings. Identifying our guys and what type of value we have on these prospects.

So I'll basically exclude 95% of the guys I think we have no shot at. Nothing to do with scheme etc. OT for example, it's more than likely all are gone but I really think 1-2 might slip enough for a reasonable trade up or even to 23. Unlikely but you can absolutely count on the unknown happening. So instead of picking one, all of the big 4 fit us in some way. I just left them all there. Probably should add Brown bc I think he slips out the top 10 as well.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Graded out as my IDL over Brown.

Kinlaw might be available at 23 or small trade up (two 3rds). He's been fascinating for years. Literally him or nothing on that DL. It's Kinlaw or bust. So much untapped potential here. You here him speak and you can't help but wonder if he's happy with the situation he was in. Seems like a guy that not only wants to be coached but be taught by the best. Wants to be challenged, pushed. Not sure he got that everyday but he will in most cases next level. You listen to him speak and he's a different cat. He's a ride or die type guy on the field but has it together from most accounts off it. Knows what's important.
Anyway back to his development. You listen to him speak and he's clearly not happy with where he's at. What he's done. He's a dog. That's one of the biggest things I look for that separates prospects from each other. Guys that simply want to work and get better. His potential is off the charts. I see a lot of Chris Jones without the question marks.

Kinlaw doesn't have many holes tbh imo. He simply needs to widen his array of moves. Plays with vg leverage but when he's on, with his length, he's very hard to impede. I'd like him to get just get better on his follow through. He'll get a bit too high as he makes contact or on his 3rd/4th step. If he improves, even slightly, it would go a long, long way.

+ Grip strength. Love it. So underrated. Mainly mins with a bull & extending his monster arms. He'll work a push/pull ofr that. Rip. Swim. His balance could improve a bit imo. Esp lined up at 5T trying to work outside.

+ Upper and lower strength. Very hard to block all around. His effort/motor are non-stop. Strength/length are very real. + Quicks. Very hard to block. Like a said strong grip. Big time power in his hands.

At times you can imagine teams will take advantage of his aggression.

I'd love Bill to make him his pet project. He really needs a guy he can look up to everyday at the facility.

Work on his leverage a bit. He has absolutely everything you want as a mound of clay. All the tools it takes to be a diverse pass rusher. Slow the game down a bit and push some buttons.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

I expect Kinlaw to be gone by 23...most likely top 15. Good news on Tua, but I think NE needs to trade up with Detroit at 3 to get him. It'll take a King's ransom to do that.

 

[lancerman]

Interesting. Personally I think the Pats should do whatever it takes to trade up and get Tua. Assuming his workouts go well. Not sure about Love...

Mock draft: Patriots pick QB with the most upside in the 2020 NFL Draft

It’s impossible to get Tua at anything that is a reasonable price. Also this team has no business taking on anybody with an injury history. Especially at that position.

Unless he falls within 5 picks the trade up isn’t worth it. Especially since it’s highly likely we have a better pick next year in a draft featuring Lawrence. See what Stidham has. If he sucks we can start making plays for that guy

I agree with the assessment of the link. Right now the teams receiver depth is old Edelman and one year of Sanu. Our passing game was a huge weakness. Our needs are TE, WR, and LB. This isn’t a good TE draft and we would not s lot of fortune for a LB. You don’t need to overthink this one. Get a WR.

 

[mgteich]

I don't think that the situation is all that unusual. Aren't there usually about 15 consensus blue chippers that almost everyone thinks is worthy, and a couple of QB that some team will rate as a blue chipper?

I think that you had about 12 blue-chippers not counting Herbert and Love.

Don't we often say that there is little difference in quality between 20 and 50? As always there will be a couple of over-reaches early, but it quite possible that the value at 23 won't be much better than the blue at 53. Do you disagree?

BOTTOM LINE
If we can get a blue-chipper on Belichick's board at 23 (or with a bit of a trade up), then get the player, otherwise, look for a trade down.

It would seem that our best shots at value would be one of the top OT's, the DL Kinlaw, and whichever QB is available.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

I expect Kinlaw to be gone by 23...most likely top 15. Good news on Tua, but I think NE needs to trade up with Detroit at 3 to get him. It'll take a King's ransom to do that.

i expect kinlaw to go in the top 10.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I don't think that the situation is all that unusual. Aren't there usually about 15 consensus blue chippers that almost everyone thinks is worthy, and a couple of QB that some team will rate as a blue chipper?

I think that you had about 12 blue-chippers not counting Herbert and Love.

Don't we often say that there is little difference in quality between 20 and 50? As always there will be a couple of over-reaches early, but it quite possible that the value at 23 won't be much better than the blue at 53. Do you disagree?

BOTTOM LINE
If we can get a blue-chipper on Belichick's board at 23 (or with a bit of a trade up), then get the player, otherwise, look for a trade down.

It would seem that our best shots at value would be one of the top OT's, the DL Kinlaw, and whichever QB is available.

I think he was speaking more to the lack of consensus at certain positions. Just draft hype.

 

[Chevrolet]

Tua is a health risk...not now, probably not this year, but that type of hip injury can predisposes to early degenerative joint disease of the hip. I do not believe a top 10 team will take that risk without having had a team physician personally evaluate him. However I do think in the 10-20 range someone will take him.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

 

[mgteich]

I think he was speaking more to the lack of consensus at certain positions. Just draft hype.

fair enough

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

So I know everyone is wondering how C19 will effect the 2020 draft. Teams will be ok this year. Pro days got squashed but you have enough info to make reasonable assessments.

I think it could effect 2021 more. By now scouts are usually getting ready for spring/summer scouting. This is actually a critical time. This is when you're getting info of guys who will breakout. Who came into spring/early summer in shape or not. Guys that are standing out, prospects coming out of left field. It's an important time. Watching players and talking to coaches.
I could definitely see people/scouts being behind on some prospects until late next year - throughout the draft.

 

[Joker]

You've done yeoman's work compiling all this information for us this offseason. I hope there's a resolution soon but pandemics don't have a history of just going away quickly. If this blows up again in the fall, like many experts are predicting, you're 100% correct as far as the 2021 scouting and draft go. Like a blind man trying to land an airplane.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

You've done yeoman's work compiling all this information for us this offseason. I hope there's a resolution soon but pandemics don't have a history of just going away quickly. If this blows up again in the fall, like many experts are predicting, you're 100% correct as far as the 2021 scouting and draft go. Like a blind man trying to land an airplane.

Hate saying it but in some way, shape or form. I have a feeling we'll be dealing with this all year. Even if it flattens out, on a small scale, things will still be different I imagine.

Trustworthy contacts, friends will be key. Definitely uncharted territory in a lot of ways. I'm sure most smart teams will capitalize in some ways.