Horford and Tatum are two completely different players. I am not even sure who the Sixers will have Horford (while paired with Embiid) defend when the Celts put Walker/Hayward/Brown/Tatum/Kanter on the court. Hell, we could see Simmons or Harris on Tatum/Brown more. Horford helped the Celts' defense..he was a great help defender and improved his three point shooting last year, but I would take Tatum vs. Horford ISO every day and twice on Sundays. Likewise, I would also post up Horford vs. Tatum every chance I got. Again apples and oranges therefore a wash.
Hayward in two seasons with the Celts:
11.3 ppg
3.3 apg
4.4 rpg
.527 eFG%
25.6 mpg (started 19 of 73 games)
Josh Richards' best season in 2018-9 w/ Miami:
16.6 ppg
4.1 apg
3.6 rpg
.492 eFG%
34.8 mpg (also started 73 of 73 games)
Difference: +5.3 ppg, +.8apg, -.8rpg, -.035eFG%, and +8.8mpg when comparing Richards' best season vs. Hayward's crappy 2017-2019 seasons.
Reasonable likehood? I think it is VERY reasonable to expect:
- Tatum to get better as his issue was shot selection and/or lack of aggression...two very fixable things.
- Brown to see his numbers rise with more minutes. This is a natural expectation.
- Walker to be Walker....I am even expecting a drop in his numbers across the board as he was the top dawg in Charlotte.
- Hayward to bounce back to All Star form...we could see Hayward showing signs of that late in the season and during the playoffs before the team collapsed against the Bucks.
- I don't think it is reasonable to expect us to replace what Horford did here by committee. Horford was integral to our team the last three years. However, I expect us to adjust by doing things differently (e.g. better rebounding and inside scoring w/ Kanter). Ditto for Kyrie being replaced by committee.
Overall, it is reasonable to expect the Celtics to outperform last year's team due to better chemistry and letting our young guys lead the way. In addition, Philly took a step back offensively with the departures of Butler and Redick..but got stronger defensively with a stretch big man in Horford who can cover for Embiid. Both teams were separated by TWO games last year with the last match up being won by Philly 118-115 after both Kyrie/Morris missed two shots and Butler hit a 9 footer. That was basically the difference last year.
Perhaps it helps to keep the names out if it, and consider what normally would happen with a particular type of player.
- An all-star player that suffers a horrendous leg injury (something more than a ACL) would be expected to struggle his first year back and return somewhat-to-form his second. What do we expect from Hayward?
- Two very young promising players have sensational years and look like future stars only to take a big step backward when a ball-dominant point guard returns and poisons team chemistry. Now that the poisonous team chemistry guard is gone, what do we expect from Tatum and Brown?
- The poisonous chemistry point guard is replaced by a team-first high character point guard that is almost as talented. What do we expect from Walker?
In all of these cases, I don't think it is just hope, barring injury it would be surprising if Hayward, Brown, Tatum, don't take a big step forward. I would also argue that for this type of young team, a high character point guard like Walker will be at least as good as Irving.
The real loss is Horford. Kanter is not going to replace Horford (certainly on defense), so we will have to see if any replacements are forthcoming prior to the trade deadline.
However, IMHO the Horford departure was inevitable. Everybody talks about how BB always lets a player go a year early instead of a year late. I think Ainge is exactly the same way. Who are some of the most beloved players of the Ainge era? Certainly Garnett and Pierce, and they were traded for a wealth of Net picks (at age 37 and 35). Rondo was traded before his next big contract. Antoine Walker was traded before a big contract. Perkins wanted a bit too much money and he was traded. Really, the question is: which player who is either aging or due a big pay day has NOT been traded by Ainge? I can't think of any, can you all?
So: there was simply no way that Ainge was going to give Horford a max contract that would be giving him max money at age 37. And, Horford already showed a real decline last year.
Because of all that Horford has contributed to the Celtics, it was a disappointment to see him go. But with both BB and Ainge, it is all about the future instead of the past. Ainge judged that he couldn't give a max contract to an aging Horford. Let's see if he can pull a rabbit out of his hat with some type of defensive big man to complete the roster before the trade deadline.
