2018 Defense vs 2019 Defense

[Ring 6]

I must say that the CB position has the best mix of quality veterans and early career guys that I can recall. There's going to be intense competition for the final roster spot. If Duke Dawson is healthy and shows what he can do that got him drafted, Belichick will head into 2019 with four or five good to excellent corners that feature some size to deal with all these big WRs that teams are throwing at them.

With Collins return to push the young guys for a job, LB looks stronger than 2018. The only question mark on D is how they'll replace Flowers' production and versatility in the front seven. How I wish they'd had the cap room to lock in Flowers for a few years.

The d does look strong. We had one of the best secondaries last year. Gilmore is a stud and as you said there is a lot of competition for the other corner spots. Safety is solid.
Adding a 100% Hightower and Collins and bringing back Bentley along with vannoy and Roberts makes this the best and deepest lb in years.
Bennett will approximate flowers. There is a lot of young potential for the other DE spot and hopefully that competition will see one of them each it.
DT is my worry. I’d prefer Guy to be DT3. He can be overmatched at times and while he is pretty solid he is by no means a “run stuffer”. Perhaps pennel becomes what peal branch was. If that happens we will be scary. I want to se more beef brought in. We are loaded with guys who can rush from the DT spot on passing downs, but run stopping DTs are thin.

Very encouraging outlook right now though.

 

[RobertWeathers]

The d does look strong. We had one of the best secondaries last year. Gilmore is a stud and as you said there is a lot of competition for the other corner spots. Safety is solid.
Adding a 100% Hightower and Collins and bringing back Bentley along with vannoy and Roberts makes this the best and deepest lb in years.
Bennett will approximate flowers. There is a lot of young potential for the other DE spot and hopefully that competition will see one of them each it.
DT is my worry. I’d prefer Guy to be DT3. He can be overmatched at times and while he is pretty solid he is by no means a “run stuffer”. Perhaps pennel becomes what peal branch was. If that happens we will be scary. I want to se more beef brought in. We are loaded with guys who can rush from the DT spot on passing downs, but run stopping DTs are thin.

Very encouraging outlook right now though.

It's a shame Suh and Wilkerson are sketchy characters. Based on ability and potential alone they'd be nice rotational pieces.

 

[mgteich]

So, you expect to carry 6 corners?

I must say that the CB position has the best mix of quality veterans and early career guys that I can recall. There's going to be intense competition for the final roster spot. If Duke Dawson is healthy and shows what he can do that got him drafted, Belichick will head into 2019 with four or five good to excellent corners that feature some size to deal with all these big WRs that teams are throwing at them.

With Collins return to push the young guys for a job, LB looks stronger than 2018. The only question mark on D is how they'll replace Flowers' production and versatility in the front seven. How I wish they'd had the cap room to lock in Flowers for a few years.

 

[Ring 6]

Hackett: Bend but don't break Patriots defense could be thing of past

Disagree with that article.
Job 1 is to prevent the big play. Aggressive defense allows big plays.
The day we become an all out aggressive defense is the day we are team with the talent disadvantage.
Basic rule of thumb. Aggressive play changes the balance of talent. In other words if you are less talented and play conservative you rarely win because the way you win is with big plays and fluky plays. Aggressive defense create those in both directions.
If you are the better team conservative play gives you a better chance to win and not let an inferior team beat you because they popped a couple of big plays when aggressive play left you vulnerable.

 

[Ring 6]

So, you expect to carry 6 corners?

If no one gets injured
Gilmore
Jackson
Mccourty
Joejuan
Dawson
Jones

All seem pretty much locks to make the team.

 

[ivanvamp]

The thing about Jones is that he proved he could play safety as well. So he brings versatility.

Honestly, the defensive backfield is as loaded as I've ever seen it for the Pats. High level quality and tremendous depth.

 

[IllegalContact]

counting on Winovich starting is a fantasy

 

[jah]

If no one gets injured
Gilmore
Jackson
Mccourty
Joejuan
Dawson
Jones

All seem pretty much locks to make the team.

I'd say Dawson is far from a lock. He's shown about as much as Berrios, and I think most people here know how I feel about Berrios by now.

 

[SBLIII]

I'd say Dawson is far from a lock. He's shown about as much as Berrios, and I think most people here know how I feel about Berrios by now.

By cutting Dawson, Belichick would cut his first 2nd round pick after 1 season in his 20th season as NEP HC, he would potentially create a massive DB hole for the 2020 season and he would take on a 1.8 million dead cap hit.

All in all, while not impossible, fairly unlikely.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Disagree with that article.
Job 1 is to prevent the big play. Aggressive defense allows big plays.
The day we become an all out aggressive defense is the day we are team with the talent disadvantage.
Basic rule of thumb. Aggressive play changes the balance of talent. In other words if you are less talented and play conservative you rarely win because the way you win is with big plays and fluky plays. Aggressive defense create those in both directions.
If you are the better team conservative play gives you a better chance to win and not let an inferior team beat you because they popped a couple of big plays when aggressive play left you vulnerable.

When people say “aggressive” I don’t think they mean blitz every down. It really depends on which QB they play. It was quite shocking seeing them come after Rivers in the divisional round like they did. The guy was dear in headlights after their first TD drive. They did the same thing in the Super Bowl which caused the game sealing Gilmore interception.

They were also surprisingly aggressive in spots of the game against Mahomes in both meetings.

When it’s obvious passing downs/3rd and 7+, teams should bring the heat.

 

[Ring 6]

I'd say Dawson is far from a lock. He's shown about as much as Berrios, and I think most people here know how I feel about Berrios by now.

Berrios is unlikely to have the skill to play in the nfl. He hasn’t shown anything be she’s he hasn’t got anything. Dawson was injured. Not showing anything because you are injured is not a statement on your ability.

 

[Ring 6]

When people say “aggressive” I don’t think they mean blitz every down. It really depends on which QB they play. It was quite shocking seeing them come after Rivers in the divisional round like they did. The guy was dear in headlights after their first TD drive. They did the same thing in the Super Bowl which caused the game sealing Gilmore interception.

They were also surprisingly aggressive in spots of the game against Mahomes in both meetings.

When it’s obvious passing downs/3rd and 7+, teams should bring the heat.

But a conservative defense plays aggressively in spots and an aggressive defense plays conservatively in spots.
It’s not mutually exclusive, it’s a place along a continuum. The patriots as presently constituted will be near the furthest in the league toward the conservative end.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I'd say Dawson is far from a lock. He's shown about as much as Berrios, and I think most people here know how I feel about Berrios by now.

He hasn't shown jack but cutting a 2nd rounder in Year 2 is unprecedented.

 

[jimnance]

So, you expect to carry 6 corners?

6 cbs in today's NFL is a necessity.

 

[Bradyking12]

The d does look strong. We had one of the best secondaries last year. Gilmore is a stud and as you said there is a lot of competition for the other corner spots. Safety is solid.
Adding a 100% Hightower and Collins and bringing back Bentley along with vannoy and Roberts makes this the best and deepest lb in years.
Bennett will approximate flowers. There is a lot of young potential for the other DE spot and hopefully that competition will see one of them each it.
DT is my worry. I’d prefer Guy to be DT3. He can be overmatched at times and while he is pretty solid he is by no means a “run stuffer”. Perhaps pennel becomes what peal branch was. If that happens we will be scary. I want to se more beef brought in. We are loaded with guys who can rush from the DT spot on passing downs, but run stopping DTs are thin.

Very encouraging outlook right now though.

Yea everything seems perfect on D except for DT, wouldn't be surprised of we make a mid season trade if needed.

 

[One-If-By-Sea]

The Sciano bailout before he event took the job formally was unprecedented.

BB as HC of the NYJ says Hi.

 

[Uptown]

I'd say Dawson is far from a lock. He's shown about as much as Berrios, and I think most people here know how I feel about Berrios by now.

Dawson was a 2nd round draft pick....just last year.

 

[mgteich]

Yes, Dawson was a 2nd rounder, and that would normally mean that he is a lock.

However, almost no players have ever spent their rookie year injured and then become a contributor to the patriots. Over 19 years, Watson and Flowers are the exceptions.

The more likely issue is Dawson's contract.
========
BOTTOM LINE
Dawson is likely to stay, perhaps moving the team to trade Jones. The alternative is to trade Dawson for a 7th and move on. The team thought that Dawson had great potential when they drafted him. The open question is whether his injuries have changed that judgement. Camp and the pre-season should help the coaches better evaluate him.

Dawson was a 2nd round draft pick....just last year.

 

[Ring 6]

Yes, Dawson was a 2nd rounder, and that would normally mean that he is a lock.

However, almost no players have ever spent their rookie year injured and then become a contributor to the patriots. Over 19 years, Watson and Flowers are the exceptions.

The more likely issue is Dawson's contract.
========
BOTTOM LINE
Dawson is likely to stay, perhaps moving the team to trade Jones. The alternative is to trade Dawson for a 7th and move on. The team thought that Dawson had great potential when they drafted him. The open question is whether his injuries have changed that judgement. Camp and the pre-season should help the coaches better evaluate him.

You have a false narrative though. You say almost no players spent their rookie year injured then became contributors but how many high picks spent their rookie year injured and then didn’t contribute in year 2?
Keeping a guy around on IR that would have been cut if healthy shouldn’t color your outlook on a second rounder.

Take a 7th and move on? Should we do that with Wynn too?

 

[mgteich]

If Dawson is useless and much worse because of his 2018 injury, keeping him on the roster doesn't in any way prevent "a massive DB hole in 2020". If Dawson is no good, he wouldn't be the solution. All keeping Dawson on the roster does is to move some of his fixed costs to 2020.

The coaches will evaluate him, and decide whether he is even worthy of a few reps in 2019. If so, they might trade Jones.

By cutting Dawson, Belichick would cut his first 2nd round pick after 1 season in his 20th season as NEP HC, he would potentially create a massive DB hole for the 2020 season and he would take on a 1.8 million dead cap hit.

All in all, while not impossible, fairly unlikely.