Realistic availability at #32

[ctpatsfan77]

Fair enough! I agree that the immediate incremental value isn't there.

FWIW I just saw a mock that had the Pats taking OL Dalton Risner at #32. Technically sound tackle with positional versatility, could step in immediately as swing tackle then be Cannon's heir apparent on the right side. It makes some sense.

If that's what happens, it could make sense. [To be fair, the only reason Cannon wasn't a top-100 pick was his cancer diagnosis.] A first-rounder who isn't getting significant playing time by year two is a worrisome thing.

 

[VJCPatriot]

Yeah looking at this draft it seems highly likely that the Pats will trade down if no 1st round grades are available at #32. They only move up to the early 20's if they can get a dominant player with a blue chip grade.

Of the receivers Deebo, AJ Brown, Marquise Brown, Campbell, Harry, Whiteside etc. are all possible targets in the early 2nd round area.

 

[manxman2601]

Interesting ranking via Bob McGinn. Makes me think AJ could be there at 32 and Deebo at 56.



Having said that, I wonder how far Boykin and Hardman make it into the 3rd.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Interesting ranking via Bob McGinn. Makes me think AJ could be there at 32 and Deebo at 56.



Having said that, I wonder how far Boykin and Hardman make it into the 3rd.

No Isabella? interesting. . . .

 

[Sciz]

Giardi said on NFLN that Fant could fall out of the first round in part due to some work ethic concerns. Could just be a team that wants him to fall to them, but I do think there’s definitely something bizarre about how not even the 2011 Gronk/Hernandez TE coach could quite make Hockenson and Fant fit perfectly into the offense together.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Giardi said on NFLN that Fant could fall out of the first round in part due to some work ethic concerns. Could just be a team that wants him to fall to them, but I do think there’s definitely something bizarre about how not even the 2011 Gronk/Hernandez TE coach could quite make Hockenson and Fant fit perfectly into the offense together.

George Kittle was just talking about how Fant owns records in the weight room at Iowa.

I alot has to do w who's throwing the ball as well. Stanley was just awful at times. Struggling to complete 15 passes. Balls in the dirt regularly. Tons off target.

Sad bc I loved Stanley coming into the year but my goodness was he bad.

Idk I think people are still sleeping on Fant. 21 yo rookie who runs a real 4.5 at 250. Ive also seen him carry defenders for yards down field.

 

[manxman2601]

Giardi said on NFLN that Fant could fall out of the first round in part due to some work ethic concerns. Could just be a team that wants him to fall to them, but I do think there’s definitely something bizarre about how not even the 2011 Gronk/Hernandez TE coach could quite make Hockenson and Fant fit perfectly into the offense together.

Well he’s been on a visit so hopefully we’ll have a clear picture. I wonder how we’d see him compared to the RTs and WRs we’ve been looking at in that area of the draft.

 

[everlong]

You make a solid case, but I have to say that the OT situation in particular scares me. Cannon has missed 12 games to injury in the past 2 seasons. Wynn is coming off a major injury and has never played an NFL game. And that's the entire depth chart. A promising swing tackle is essential, IMO.

I think this is a really underrated factor in this year's draft. This team only played well last year when the starting 5 were healthy. It wasn't like other years where they had a swing tackle or even guard like a Vollmer who could go to either side, a Mankins who could slide outside, etc. Wynn could be that guy but then you need an LT.

Their taking Risner or Lindstrom both who could start and play multiple positions could very well happen even with AJ Brown or another of your original players still on the board.

 

[everlong]

BTW, I'm nearly convinced we see a small trade down from 32 coupled with a small trade up from 56 or 64 so they get 3 picks in the ultimate value section of this draft.

 

[p8ryts]

I decided to try a little meta analysis to get a handle of the likely state of the board at #32. NFL.com and CBS.com have a total of 10 mocks done in April. 52 different players make it into round 1 in at least one of those mocks.

Of those, 27 are gone before pick 32 in at least 7 of the 10 mocks. Let's call them the "consensus gone" players. (Notably, they include every single defensive front 7 player anybody here has mentioned as a first round target, except Jerry Tillery.)

The next tier is the "even money" players, still available in 4-5 mocks:
Jerry Tillery IDL
Kaleb McCary OT
Josh Jacobs RB
Marquise Brown WR

Then the "likely" players, available in the majority of mocks, though not all:
Deandre Baker CB
Rock Ya-Sin CB
Justin Layne CB
Jaylon Ferguson EDGE
D'Andre Walker EDGE
Chris Lindstrom IOL
Erik McCoy IOL
Dalton Risner OT
Miles Sanders RB
Nasir Adderley S
Taylor Rapp S
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S
Johnathan Abram S
Juan Thornhill S
Irv Smith TE
A.J. Brown WR
N'Keal Harry WR
Kelvin Harmon WR
Parris Campbell WR
Hakeem Butler WR
Riley Ridley WR

It seems to me that the value in that list is in IOL and WR, and if you want another position a trade up might be in order. What do you think?

Good job! Trade down.

 

[p8ryts]

I have a feeling that if Gordon comes back this year and keeps his nose clean (oops!), he’ll get a second contract from us as he’ll be relatively cheap and come with huge upside. So Brown, Gordon another high upside rookie like Hardman, Isabella, Boykin and maybe another year or two of Edelman is a really nice look for the next 2-3 years.

I just don't understand the faith in Gordon. When was the last time he rewarded anyone's faith in him. I didn't even like the emphasis placed on him on the field last year. I have zero faith in him and prefer a Dorsett to a Gordon.

 

[mgteich]

It isn't a matter of faith. Gordon was on the squad in 2018 and helped a lot when he was available. I expect the same this year.

Perhaps we will need to choose between Dorsett and Gordon for the 53. I don't expect that to be the case, but we'll see. I like Dorsett, but Josh and Tom didn't have much faith in him last year.

In any case, if healthy, Thomas is likely to be more likely to be the #2 than either Gordon or Dorsett.

I just don't understand the faith in Gordon. When was the last time he rewarded anyone's faith in him. I didn't even like the emphasis placed on him on the field last year. I have zero faith in him and prefer a Dorsett to a Gordon.

 

[SBLIII]

BTW, I'm nearly convinced we see a small trade down from 32 coupled with a small trade up from 56 or 64 so they get 3 picks in the ultimate value section of this draft.

I could also see 3 picks from 33-45/48.

top half of the 2nd round has tremendous value historically.

trade down from 32. trade up from 56 and 64.

Could come away with Deebo, Lindstrom and Adderley.

 

[everlong]

I could also see 3 picks from 33-45/48.

top half of the 2nd round has tremendous value historically.

trade down from 32. trade up from 56 and 64.

Could come away with Deebo, Lindstrom and Adderley.

I'm don't see Deebo as a second rounder but conceptually agree.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

I'm don't see Deebo as a second rounder but conceptually agree.

1st or 3rd?

 

[everlong]

1st or 3rd?

late 3rd to early 4th. I think he has the upside of Cordarrelle Patterson in the pros. I know I'm in the vast minority but I think he's a KR and 3rd receiver.

 

[VJCPatriot]

I've gotta disagree with you on Deebo. He's one of the best WR prospects in this year's draft and if we get him in the 2nd round could end up one of the steals of the draft. Yes, he's a great kick returner but that's about all he has in common with Patterson.

Deebo is an excellent route runner and what sets him apart from his peers is his excellent YAC ability. He has the potential to turn a simple slant into a touchdown because of his elusiveness in the open field after the catch. In a system like the Pats where Brady loves to dink and dunk, Deebo could make some serious bread living off those short routes that he extends for extra YAC.

Take a look at these clips and tell me he wouldn't be a great fit in our system, where those short routes are the bread and butter of our offense. And last but not least those hands, how bout dem 1 handed grabs?

late 3rd to early 4th. I think he has the upside of Cordarrelle Patterson in the pros. I know I'm in the vast minority but I think he's a KR and 3rd receiver.

 

[DaBruinz]

BTW, I'm nearly convinced we see a small trade down from 32 coupled with a small trade up from 56 or 64 so they get 3 picks in the ultimate value section of this draft.

Just remember that trading down costs a critical 5th year as well.

 

[manxman2601]

I just don't understand the faith in Gordon. When was the last time he rewarded anyone's faith in him. I didn't even like the emphasis placed on him on the field last year. I have zero faith in him and prefer a Dorsett to a Gordon.

It isn’t a matter of faith but one of talent. And “if” did a lot of work in my post. I’d ‘if’ he comes back and ‘if’ he keeps his nose clean.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Just remember that trading down costs a critical 5th year as well.

Out of curiosity, when was the last time we picked up a 5th year option? I don't have the time at the moment to look into it, but I imagine it's been a while.