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Realistic availability at #32

Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by patchick, Apr 15, 2019.

  1. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I decided to try a little meta analysis to get a handle of the likely state of the board at #32. NFL.com and CBS.com have a total of 10 mocks done in April. 52 different players make it into round 1 in at least one of those mocks.

    Of those, 27 are gone before pick 32 in at least 7 of the 10 mocks. Let's call them the "consensus gone" players. (Notably, they include every single defensive front 7 player anybody here has mentioned as a first round target, except Jerry Tillery.)

    The next tier is the "even money" players, still available in 4-5 mocks:
    Jerry Tillery IDL
    Kaleb McCary OT
    Josh Jacobs RB
    Marquise Brown WR

    Then the "likely" players, available in the majority of mocks, though not all:
    Deandre Baker CB
    Rock Ya-Sin CB
    Justin Layne CB
    Jaylon Ferguson EDGE
    D'Andre Walker EDGE
    Chris Lindstrom IOL
    Erik McCoy IOL
    Dalton Risner OT
    Miles Sanders RB
    Nasir Adderley S
    Taylor Rapp S
    Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S
    Johnathan Abram S
    Juan Thornhill S
    Irv Smith TE
    A.J. Brown WR
    N'Keal Harry WR
    Kelvin Harmon WR
    Parris Campbell WR
    Hakeem Butler WR
    Riley Ridley WR

    It seems to me that the value in that list is in IOL and WR, and if you want another position a trade up might be in order. What do you think?
     
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    Last edited: Apr 15, 2019
  2. mgteich

    mgteich PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    For me, this is a AJ Brown or trade down.

    I think that this is a great approach. I think that it might be instructive to do the same analysis at 21. It would seem that this is the year to move up, using a 3rd. although the raiders might turn out to be the trade partner.

     
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  3. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    I agree with Mg. if that’s how things have shaped up a week Thursday, AJ Brown is my only definite stick at 32 and pick. I could get comfortable with Risner, Thornhill and Hakeem Brown though if they can’t find a trade back option.
     
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  4. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    By the by, that was a useful exercise. Thanks.
     
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  5. zimmy

    zimmy Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    This is a good exercise. From consensus mocks here are players that regularly go in the top 15 that we likely have no shot at without a significant trade up:

    Kyler Murray
    Nick Bosa
    Quinnen Williams
    Josh Allen
    Ed Oliver
    Jawaan Taylor
    Devin White
    Montez Sweat
    TJ Hockenson
    Devin Bush
    Jonah Williams
    Drew Lock
    Andre Dillard

    Players who usually go between 10-25 but rarely make 32:

    Noah Fant
    Dwayne Haskins
    Rashaan Gary
    DK Metcalf
    Brian Burns
    Christian Wilkins
    Clelin Ferrell
    Deandre Baker


    Players who do make it to 32 regularly but insiders claim will go higher:

    Daniel Jones
    Dexter Lawrence
    Garrett Bradbury
    AJ Brown
    Kaleb McGary
    Byron Murphy
    AJ Brown

    That is 28 players - one or two of these might reasonably make 32 or close to it with a small trade up

    That leaves is with players such as:

    CB: Greedy Williams, Rock Ya-Sin
    S: Johnathan Abram, Juan Thornhill
    RB: Josh Jacobs
    DT: Jerry Tillery, Jeffrey Simmons
    WR: Marquise Brown
    OT: Dalton Risner
    OG: Chris Lindstrom, Erik McCoy

    In this case I would try and trade up for a Brown, Lawrence, Fant etc. If I have to stay at 32 I think the value is at safety (Thornhill) or along the o-line. I like Tillery/Simmons but I'm not sure they will be on our board given their character concerns.

    The alternative is a trade down from 32 and then up from 56 to get a couple of picks in the late 30s. Could get a couple of impact players there.
     
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  6. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Very cool, anyone who can obsess over the draft with a new angle is ok in my book.

    This is a total cop out but I see a lot of depth at some positions of need:
    - WR is strong all the way into rounds 3-4
    - TE is top heavy, if Fant or Hockenson are gone consider Smith or wait until pick 64/73

    Then look for value (BPA) at positions of need or premium positions (DE, DT, S, O line, CB) or trade back.

    A lot of "ORs"...
     
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    Last edited: Apr 15, 2019
  7. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I agree that Brown leaps out as the biggest upgrade to the team, and if he's there I'd grab him.

    But it has to be said: Lindstrom and McCoy both seem like locks to be high-level starters for a long time. BPA, anyone? ;)
     
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  8. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

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    IMHO, If Dexter Lawrence is still on the board after 20, the Pats will trade up for him. He's the kind of dominant DT that they need for the interior D-line.

    With the rumors that the Browns are trying to trade back into the first round, I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats traded back from 32 if Lawrence is off the board. I just don't see the Pats picking a 1st round WR.
     
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  9. Ivan

    Ivan Hall of Fame Poster

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    I think Simmons will be there, and Daniel Jones could fall to the end of the round as well. I’m hoping Lawrence will be there but doubt he will make it to them.
     
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  10. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    It should be worth noting for those who think we should trade back if we want an OL that it would be worth their while taking a look at the first few picks of last year’s 2nd round.

    33. Austin Corbett OG
    34. Will Hernandez OG
    37. Braden Smith OG
    39 James Daniels OC
     
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  11. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    Just one more thought for those keen on trading back. Look at Patchick’s list for who’s available at 32. Is there anyone there you’d be particularly keen on trading up for if you were a team looking to get to 32? And, of course, if we want to trade back, the teams just above us may want to trade back too. It just isn’t a given unfortunately.
     
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  12. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    FWIW, I'm increasingly doubtful of that. Even with the injury, it's hard for me to picture many teams choosing Tillery over Simmons. (I know I wouldn't.)
     
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  13. Ivan

    Ivan Hall of Fame Poster

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    The big unknown is always who will drop. If the mocks are accurate, and they are usually off by about 6-10 picks, depending upon the draft, then they could get lucky and one of their guys will be available. That said I’m still expecting them to make a move, I just don’t know if it will be up or down. Seattle still seems like the sweet spot to get an immediate impact player that dropped out of the top 20.
     
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  14. cstjohn17

    cstjohn17 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That is where the eye of the beholder comes in...

    If Simmons is a 90 grade but you only get him for 4 years and Tillery is an 80 but you get him for 5 years which is a better investment?

    4 * 90 = 360
    5 * 80 = 400

    Overly simplistic but you get the idea.
     
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  15. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ah, but the scale is exponential. ;)
     
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  16. mrscruff

    mrscruff PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Easy, Simmons for 4 years. If Tillery is the top pick, he must miss his first year anyway, them's the rules, (see Isaiah Wynn, Derek Rivers, Cyrus Jones ;) so might as well get it out of the way with Simmons.
     
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  17. holyredeemer

    holyredeemer 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

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    I see A LOT of guys I’d love in Rd. 2. I’d have to give more thought into how far I’d be willing to trade back and whether or not controlling that extra year is a biggie. I really like Tillery & Brown for us, but I would really have a hard time pulling the trigger on drafting anyone associated with AB if I was a GM. Is that petty? I don’t know. BTW, cool thread. Thanks for the research. You’re gettin’ itchy for it to all be over with, aren’t ya?
     
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  18. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    She’s gonna’ have a ditty to compose this year.
     
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  19. captain stone

    captain stone Pro Bowl Player

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    Has Deebo Samuel fallen completely outside of 1st-round consideration now? Understandable, but I would still choose him ahead of Harmon, Campbell, Butler & Ridley.
     
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  20. manxman2601

    manxman2601 Hall of Fame Poster

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    I would too although Butler interests me purely from a mismatch pov.
     
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