Realistic availability at #32

[patchick]

I decided to try a little meta analysis to get a handle of the likely state of the board at #32. NFL.com and CBS.com have a total of 10 mocks done in April. 52 different players make it into round 1 in at least one of those mocks.

Of those, 27 are gone before pick 32 in at least 7 of the 10 mocks. Let's call them the "consensus gone" players. (Notably, they include every single defensive front 7 player anybody here has mentioned as a first round target, except Jerry Tillery.)

The next tier is the "even money" players, still available in 4-5 mocks:
Jerry Tillery IDL
Kaleb McCary OT
Josh Jacobs RB
Marquise Brown WR

Then the "likely" players, available in the majority of mocks, though not all:
Deandre Baker CB
Rock Ya-Sin CB
Justin Layne CB
Jaylon Ferguson EDGE
D'Andre Walker EDGE
Chris Lindstrom IOL
Erik McCoy IOL
Dalton Risner OT
Miles Sanders RB
Nasir Adderley S
Taylor Rapp S
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S
Johnathan Abram S
Juan Thornhill S
Irv Smith TE
A.J. Brown WR
N'Keal Harry WR
Kelvin Harmon WR
Parris Campbell WR
Hakeem Butler WR
Riley Ridley WR

It seems to me that the value in that list is in IOL and WR, and if you want another position a trade up might be in order. What do you think?

 

[mgteich]

For me, this is a AJ Brown or trade down.

I think that this is a great approach. I think that it might be instructive to do the same analysis at 21. It would seem that this is the year to move up, using a 3rd. although the raiders might turn out to be the trade partner.

I decided to try a little meta analysis to try to get a handle of the likely state of the board at #32. NFL.com and CBS.com have a total of 10 mocks done in April. 52 different players make it into round 1 in at least one of those mocks.

Of those, 27 are gone before pick 32 in at least 7 of the 10 mocks. Let's call them the "consensus gone" players. (Notably, they include every single defensive front 7 player anybody here has mentioned as a first round target, except Jerry Tillery.)

The next tier is the "even money" players, still available in 4-5 mocks:
Jerry Tillery IDL
Kaleb McCary OT
Josh Jacobs RB
Marquise Brown WR

Then the "likely" players, available in the majority of mocks, though not all:
Deandre Baker CB
Rock Ya-Sin CB
Justin Layne CB
Jaylon Ferguson EDGE
D'Andre Walker EDGE
Chris Lindstrom IOL
Erik McCoy IOL
Dalton Risner OT
Miles Sanders RB
Nasir Adderley S
Taylor Rapp S
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S
Johnathan Abram S
Juan Thornhill S
Irv Smith TE
A.J. Brown WR
N'Keal Harry WR
Kelvin Harmon WR
Parris Campbell WR
Hakeem Butler WR
Riley Ridley WR

It seems to me that the value in that list is in IOL and WR, and if you want another position a trade up might be in order. What do you think?

 

[manxman2601]

I agree with Mg. if that’s how things have shaped up a week Thursday, AJ Brown is my only definite stick at 32 and pick. I could get comfortable with Risner, Thornhill and Hakeem Brown though if they can’t find a trade back option.

 

[manxman2601]

By the by, that was a useful exercise. Thanks.

 

[zimmy]

This is a good exercise. From consensus mocks here are players that regularly go in the top 15 that we likely have no shot at without a significant trade up:

Kyler Murray
Nick Bosa
Quinnen Williams
Josh Allen
Ed Oliver
Jawaan Taylor
Devin White
Montez Sweat
TJ Hockenson
Devin Bush
Jonah Williams
Drew Lock
Andre Dillard

Players who usually go between 10-25 but rarely make 32:

Noah Fant
Dwayne Haskins
Rashaan Gary
DK Metcalf
Brian Burns
Christian Wilkins
Clelin Ferrell
Deandre Baker


Players who do make it to 32 regularly but insiders claim will go higher:

Daniel Jones
Dexter Lawrence
Garrett Bradbury
AJ Brown
Kaleb McGary
Byron Murphy
AJ Brown

That is 28 players - one or two of these might reasonably make 32 or close to it with a small trade up

That leaves is with players such as:

CB: Greedy Williams, Rock Ya-Sin
S: Johnathan Abram, Juan Thornhill
RB: Josh Jacobs
DT: Jerry Tillery, Jeffrey Simmons
WR: Marquise Brown
OT: Dalton Risner
OG: Chris Lindstrom, Erik McCoy

In this case I would try and trade up for a Brown, Lawrence, Fant etc. If I have to stay at 32 I think the value is at safety (Thornhill) or along the o-line. I like Tillery/Simmons but I'm not sure they will be on our board given their character concerns.

The alternative is a trade down from 32 and then up from 56 to get a couple of picks in the late 30s. Could get a couple of impact players there.

 

[cstjohn17]

Very cool, anyone who can obsess over the draft with a new angle is ok in my book.

This is a total cop out but I see a lot of depth at some positions of need:
- WR is strong all the way into rounds 3-4
- TE is top heavy, if Fant or Hockenson are gone consider Smith or wait until pick 64/73

Then look for value (BPA) at positions of need or premium positions (DE, DT, S, O line, CB) or trade back.

A lot of "ORs"...

 

[patchick]

For me, this is a AJ Brown or trade down.

I agree that Brown leaps out as the biggest upgrade to the team, and if he's there I'd grab him.

But it has to be said: Lindstrom and McCoy both seem like locks to be high-level starters for a long time. BPA, anyone?

 

[DaBruinz]

IMHO, If Dexter Lawrence is still on the board after 20, the Pats will trade up for him. He's the kind of dominant DT that they need for the interior D-line.

With the rumors that the Browns are trying to trade back into the first round, I wouldn't be surprised if the Pats traded back from 32 if Lawrence is off the board. I just don't see the Pats picking a 1st round WR.

 

[Ivan]

I decided to try a little meta analysis to get a handle of the likely state of the board at #32. NFL.com and CBS.com have a total of 10 mocks done in April. 52 different players make it into round 1 in at least one of those mocks.

Of those, 27 are gone before pick 32 in at least 7 of the 10 mocks. Let's call them the "consensus gone" players. (Notably, they include every single defensive front 7 player anybody here has mentioned as a first round target, except Jerry Tillery.)

The next tier is the "even money" players, still available in 4-5 mocks:
Jerry Tillery IDL
Kaleb McCary OT
Josh Jacobs RB
Marquise Brown WR

Then the "likely" players, available in the majority of mocks, though not all:
Deandre Baker CB
Rock Ya-Sin CB
Justin Layne CB
Jaylon Ferguson EDGE
D'Andre Walker EDGE
Chris Lindstrom IOL
Erik McCoy IOL
Dalton Risner OT
Miles Sanders RB
Nasir Adderley S
Taylor Rapp S
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S
Johnathan Abram S
Juan Thornhill S
Irv Smith TE
A.J. Brown WR
N'Keal Harry WR
Kelvin Harmon WR
Parris Campbell WR
Hakeem Butler WR
Riley Ridley WR

It seems to me that the value in that list is in IOL and WR, and if you want another position a trade up might be in order. What do you think?

I think Simmons will be there, and Daniel Jones could fall to the end of the round as well. I’m hoping Lawrence will be there but doubt he will make it to them.

 

[manxman2601]

I agree that Brown leaps out as the biggest upgrade to the team, and if he's there I'd grab him.

But it has to be said: Lindstrom and McCoy both seem like locks to be high-level starters for a long time. BPA, anyone?

It should be worth noting for those who think we should trade back if we want an OL that it would be worth their while taking a look at the first few picks of last year’s 2nd round.

33. Austin Corbett OG
34. Will Hernandez OG
37. Braden Smith OG
39 James Daniels OC

 

[manxman2601]

Just one more thought for those keen on trading back. Look at Patchick’s list for who’s available at 32. Is there anyone there you’d be particularly keen on trading up for if you were a team looking to get to 32? And, of course, if we want to trade back, the teams just above us may want to trade back too. It just isn’t a given unfortunately.

 

[patchick]

I think Simmons will be there

FWIW, I'm increasingly doubtful of that. Even with the injury, it's hard for me to picture many teams choosing Tillery over Simmons. (I know I wouldn't.)

 

[Ivan]

The big unknown is always who will drop. If the mocks are accurate, and they are usually off by about 6-10 picks, depending upon the draft, then they could get lucky and one of their guys will be available. That said I’m still expecting them to make a move, I just don’t know if it will be up or down. Seattle still seems like the sweet spot to get an immediate impact player that dropped out of the top 20.

 

[cstjohn17]

FWIW, I'm increasingly doubtful of that. Even with the injury, it's hard for me to picture many teams choosing Tillery over Simmons. (I know I wouldn't.)

That is where the eye of the beholder comes in...

If Simmons is a 90 grade but you only get him for 4 years and Tillery is an 80 but you get him for 5 years which is a better investment?

4 * 90 = 360
5 * 80 = 400

Overly simplistic but you get the idea.

 

[patchick]

That is where the eye of the beholder comes in...

If Simmons is a 90 grade but you only get him for 4 years and Tillery is an 80 but you get him for 5 years which is a better investment?

4 * 90 = 360
5 * 80 = 400

Overly simplistic but you get the idea.

Ah, but the scale is exponential.

 

[mrscruff]

That is where the eye of the beholder comes in...

If Simmons is a 90 grade but you only get him for 4 years and Tillery is an 80 but you get him for 5 years which is a better investment?

4 * 90 = 360
5 * 80 = 400

Overly simplistic but you get the idea.

Easy, Simmons for 4 years. If Tillery is the top pick, he must miss his first year anyway, them's the rules, (see Isaiah Wynn, Derek Rivers, Cyrus Jones so might as well get it out of the way with Simmons.

 

[holyredeemer]

I decided to try a little meta analysis to get a handle of the likely state of the board at #32. NFL.com and CBS.com have a total of 10 mocks done in April. 52 different players make it into round 1 in at least one of those mocks.

Of those, 27 are gone before pick 32 in at least 7 of the 10 mocks. Let's call them the "consensus gone" players. (Notably, they include every single defensive front 7 player anybody here has mentioned as a first round target, except Jerry Tillery.)

The next tier is the "even money" players, still available in 4-5 mocks:
Jerry Tillery IDL
Kaleb McCary OT
Josh Jacobs RB
Marquise Brown WR

Then the "likely" players, available in the majority of mocks, though not all:
Deandre Baker CB
Rock Ya-Sin CB
Justin Layne CB
Jaylon Ferguson EDGE
D'Andre Walker EDGE
Chris Lindstrom IOL
Erik McCoy IOL
Dalton Risner OT
Miles Sanders RB
Nasir Adderley S
Taylor Rapp S
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S
Johnathan Abram S
Juan Thornhill S
Irv Smith TE
A.J. Brown WR
N'Keal Harry WR
Kelvin Harmon WR
Parris Campbell WR
Hakeem Butler WR
Riley Ridley WR

It seems to me that the value in that list is in IOL and WR, and if you want another position a trade up might be in order. What do you think?

I see A LOT of guys I’d love in Rd. 2. I’d have to give more thought into how far I’d be willing to trade back and whether or not controlling that extra year is a biggie. I really like Tillery & Brown for us, but I would really have a hard time pulling the trigger on drafting anyone associated with AB if I was a GM. Is that petty? I don’t know. BTW, cool thread. Thanks for the research. You’re gettin’ itchy for it to all be over with, aren’t ya?

 

[manxman2601]

I see A LOT of guys I’d love in Rd. 2. I’d have to give more thought into how far I’d be willing to trade back and whether or not controlling that extra year is a biggie. I really like Tillery & Brown for us, but I would really have a hard time pulling the trigger on drafting anyone associated with AB if I was a GM. Is that petty? I don’t know. BTW, cool thread. Thanks for the research. You’re gettin’ itchy for it to all be over with, aren’t ya?

She’s gonna’ have a ditty to compose this year.

 

[captain stone]

I decided to try a little meta analysis to get a handle of the likely state of the board at #32. NFL.com and CBS.com have a total of 10 mocks done in April. 52 different players make it into round 1 in at least one of those mocks.

Of those, 27 are gone before pick 32 in at least 7 of the 10 mocks. Let's call them the "consensus gone" players. (Notably, they include every single defensive front 7 player anybody here has mentioned as a first round target, except Jerry Tillery.)

The next tier is the "even money" players, still available in 4-5 mocks:
Jerry Tillery IDL
Kaleb McCary OT
Josh Jacobs RB
Marquise Brown WR

Then the "likely" players, available in the majority of mocks, though not all:
Deandre Baker CB
Rock Ya-Sin CB
Justin Layne CB
Jaylon Ferguson EDGE
D'Andre Walker EDGE
Chris Lindstrom IOL
Erik McCoy IOL
Dalton Risner OT
Miles Sanders RB
Nasir Adderley S
Taylor Rapp S
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson S
Johnathan Abram S
Juan Thornhill S
Irv Smith TE
A.J. Brown WR
N'Keal Harry WR
Kelvin Harmon WR
Parris Campbell WR
Hakeem Butler WR
Riley Ridley WR

It seems to me that the value in that list is in IOL and WR, and if you want another position a trade up might be in order. What do you think?

This is a good exercise. From consensus mocks here are players that regularly go in the top 15 that we likely have no shot at without a significant trade up:

Kyler Murray
Nick Bosa
Quinnen Williams
Josh Allen
Ed Oliver
Jawaan Taylor
Devin White
Montez Sweat
TJ Hockenson
Devin Bush
Jonah Williams
Drew Lock
Andre Dillard

Players who usually go between 10-25 but rarely make 32:

Noah Fant
Dwayne Haskins
Rashaan Gary
DK Metcalf
Brian Burns
Christian Wilkins
Clelin Ferrell
Deandre Baker


Players who do make it to 32 regularly but insiders claim will go higher:

Daniel Jones
Dexter Lawrence
Garrett Bradbury
AJ Brown
Kaleb McGary
Byron Murphy
AJ Brown

That is 28 players - one or two of these might reasonably make 32 or close to it with a small trade up

That leaves is with players such as:

CB: Greedy Williams, Rock Ya-Sin
S: Johnathan Abram, Juan Thornhill
RB: Josh Jacobs
DT: Jerry Tillery, Jeffrey Simmons
WR: Marquise Brown
OT: Dalton Risner
OG: Chris Lindstrom, Erik McCoy

In this case I would try and trade up for a Brown, Lawrence, Fant etc. If I have to stay at 32 I think the value is at safety (Thornhill) or along the o-line. I like Tillery/Simmons but I'm not sure they will be on our board given their character concerns.

The alternative is a trade down from 32 and then up from 56 to get a couple of picks in the late 30s. Could get a couple of impact players there.

Has Deebo Samuel fallen completely outside of 1st-round consideration now? Understandable, but I would still choose him ahead of Harmon, Campbell, Butler & Ridley.

 

[manxman2601]

Has Deebo Samuel fallen completely outside of 1st-round consideration now? Understandable, but I would still choose him ahead of Harmon, Campbell, Butler & Ridley.

I would too although Butler interests me purely from a mismatch pov.