Bob's big board and draft grades 2019

[WaterfallJumper]

On Simmons, you have to trust the team to do its due diligence on his character. Yes, he was young; yes people deserve second chances. But realistically, this is a tough time for the Patriots to draft any player with an indelible video like that out there.

While there's no denying that the video looks ugly, the fact that he was going to a relative's defense makes it easier for me to forgive. I know it probably won't be the case for everyone, but to me there's a difference between a teenager going overboard defending someone vs attacking a woman unprovoked. Before and after the assault, everyone has defended his character -- he has quite the reputation at Miss State for his community and charity work, and his coaches rave about his work ethic and accountability. He also owned up to his actions and talked about how much he learned from the incident. It seems like it's pretty clearly a one-off situation.

But I'm a real sucker for a good redemption story, so . . .

 

[BobDigital]

While there's no denying that the video looks ugly, the fact that he was going to a relative's defense makes it easier for me to forgive. I know it probably won't be the case for everyone, but to me there's a difference between a teenager going overboard defending someone vs attacking a woman unprovoked. Before and after the assault, everyone has defended his character -- he has quite the reputation at Miss State for his community and charity work, and his coaches rave about his work ethic and accountability. He also owned up to his actions and talked about how much he learned from the incident. It seems like it's pretty clearly a one-off situation.

But I'm a real sucker for a good redemption story, so . . .

I agree. While you hate to see it an 18 year old still in HS going overboard on some poor girl who started crap with a relative is clearly different than choking your pregnant GF for instance.

 

[BobDigital]

Justin Layne – CB Michigan St

6'2 and 192lbs. He has good size for the position. His combine was very solid. You would have liked to see better than 4.5 on the 40 but it isn't bad. His VJ, BJ, 3CT and 20YS shuffle were all good to very good. His quickness tested better than his long speed. Has been a starter for the past 2 years. Has a big wing span. We got to see him face very good WRs and QBs.

The good. Great length and size which shows up on a number of plays. Isn't afraid to press and get physical but also looks comfortable playing zone. Played both sides of the field. Is willing to stick his nose in and hit hard whenever he gets the chance. I didn't see him get beat deep badly once though he was a step behind at least 2 times. With his length it would have taken a near perfect pass. Seems hard to beat vertically.

The Bad. Was repeatedly abused but quick cuts underneath. At times he looked like he didn't know how to handle crossing patterns in man. Admittedly it was a small sample size. Can be beat with long speed. Not active enough with his hands. Needs to abuse reach and length more if he wants to be successful. Thin frame translates to run defense they way you'd think. Even when left alone with multiple gaps to choose from in run D he didn't pick the optimal one often enough. When he plays press he needs to put hands on the WR more often.

I like the player. He's the kind of guy you that you know what you'll get. While getting beat underneath can be an issue you take that over a guy who lets himself get beat over the top. The balls skills, positioning and trailing aren't always on point. but he has the size and length to be in position to still make a play. The lack of run D is an issue and something you hate to see when drafting one of these longer outside guys, but he still can bring value and start if matched up well. Grade 5.6

 

[BobDigital]

Mack Wilson – LB Alabama

6'1 240lbs. He wasn't able to do much at the combine and what he did didn't impress much scoring below average on the BJ and VJ. His pro day 40 time wasn't special either. Clearly these test don't show him to be a superior athlete. I don't think he is and I doubt anyone would accuse him of that. His production in Alabama was only okay. The notable mark is his interception total.

The good. Can lay the wood down at times. Is a solid STs player. Good in coverage. Understands what your play is trying to accomplish and tends to find himself in the right spot. Doesn't make many mistakes. Goes for the ball when he gets the chance.

The bad. Doesn't have sideline to sideline speed. A number of times simply couldn't keep up with the play even if he got a decent jump. Run defense isn't bad, but suspect. Couldn't get off blocks against higher competition. Sometimes missed tackles he should have had due to a combination of lack of speed, failure to get off blocks or bad angles. Rarely laid the wood down against a RB to stop him; allowing them to fall/dive forward.

Mack Wilson is considered by most as the 3rd best LB. If that's the case I don't think this class is very good. He would've been more attractive 10 years ago with 2 other big LBs on the field. Most teams opt to take an LB off the field and put a DB on. If Mack Wilson is one two LBs on the field you'll be run if. If you want him in coverage you may as well put in a DB. In college only a few teams could expose him. In the NFL a lot of players will be too fast for him. While brains can make up for a lack of talent to an extent, eventually you reach a bottle neck. Wilson is such a player IMO. He can make your team and fill a role in obvious passing downs and STs, but I'd be surprised if he's a starter in 4 years. Grade 4.6

 

[BobDigital]

Darnell Savage – FS Maryland

5'11 and 198lbs. Savage absolutely crushed the combine. He was top 5 in 40, VJ and BJ. He also had a good 3CT and 20YS. The only thing he did badly in was the bench, and that was very bad. This tells his his long speed and first step burst are both top tier, and his quickness is more than good enough. Maybe a little on the weaker side though?



There isn't anything here I want to point out in particular. I just find it fun to watch.

The good. Effortlessly flies around the field with quickness and speed. Looks as good as a CB in coverage. Can make plays few others can. Has 3 years starting experience. Has a knack for making the big play. Huge upside potential. Usually reads the play correctly.

The bad. He's small and he plays small. Easily pushed around if a WR gets hands on him and is taken out of the play. If the play gets clogged he becomes fairly useless. Sometimes is too aggressive and makes mistakes. Lacks a true position in some respects.

This is a hard player to do a write up on. His highlight tape shows all pro potential. Watch his game tape and you see a mixed bag. The first thing that concerns me is he's hard to give a position to. Clearly he isn't a strong safety, so he must be a free safety? But he isn't really a free safety you want away from the play. So an in the box free safety? Then who handles the over the top duties? He could be like Devin McCourty and just play a bunch of single high but part of me feels he'd be wasted doing that. But if you put him too close to the box then you risk letting your CBs be 1 on 1 down the field.

Don't get me wrong, there's nothing wrong with being a good single high safety (which I think he can potentially be), but this is a player you want to develop to do more things if possible. You want him getting up field and blowing up plays You want him jumping routes and taking them for six. He'd probably do best on a team with a low safety and high safety without a true strong safety. I think he wants to be is just a bit outside the box eying the QB or in coverage. If he's in coverage and the pass in completed underneath then you may as well not consider him off the field as he'll be blocked out. I think a team who drafts him will probably need to build their D with him in mind. Kind of dangerous for a player who makes the amount of misreads Savage still does and is far from polished, but the upside is tantalizing. Grade 6.0

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Darnell Savage – FS Maryland

5'11and 198lbs. Savage absolutely crushed the combine. He was top 5 in 40, VJ and BJ. He also had a good 3CT and 20YS. The only thing he did badly in was the bench, and that was very bad. This tells his his stop speed and first step burst are both top tier, and his quickness is more than good enough. Maybe a little on the weaker side?



There isn't anything here I want to point out in particular. I just find it fun to watch.

The good. Effortlessly flies around the field with quickness and speed. Looks as good as a CB in coverage. Can make plays few others can. Has 3 years starting experience. Has a knack for making the big play. Huge upside potential. Usually reads the play correctly.

The bad. He's small and he plays small. Easily pushed around if a WR gets hands on him and is taken out of the play. If the play gets clogged he becomes fairly useless. Sometimes is too aggressive and makes mistakes. Lacks a true position in some respects.

This is a hard player to do a write up on. His highlight tape shows all pro potential. Watch his game tape and you see a mixed bag. The first thing that concerns me is he's hard to give a position to. Clearly he isn't a strong safety, so he must be a free safety? But he isn't really a free safety you want away from the play. So an in the box free safety? Then who handles the over the top duties? He could be like Devin McCourty and just play a bunch of single high but part of me feels he'd be wasted doing that. But if you put him too close to the box then you risk letting your CBs be 1 on 1 down the field.

Don't get me wrong, there's nothing wrong with being a good single high safety (which I think he can potentially be), but this is a player you want to develop to do more things if possible. You want him getting up field and blowing up plays You want him jumping routes and taking them for six. He'd probably do best on a team with a low safety and high safety without a true strong safety. I think he wants to be is just a bit outside the box eying the QB or in coverage. If he's in coverage and the pass in completed underneath then you may as well not consider him off the field as he'll be blocked out. I think a team who drafts him will probably need to build their D with him in mind. Kind of dangerous for a player who makes the amount of misreads Savage still does and is far from polished, but the upside is tantalizing. Grade 6.0

He reminds me a bit of Tyrann Mathieu, but he's faster and can be a knockout artist. Actually, the name that came to mind the first time I watched him was Brandon Meriweather 2.0 -- though I think he's a smarter player. I really love watching Savage's highlights. Second only to Abram for me in terms of the fire he plays with on defense.

 

[BobDigital]

Riley Ridley – WR Georgia

6'1 199lbs. The forgotten WR of this draft. Brother of first rounder Calvin, Riley had an bad combine. He was below average to down right bad in the 40, Bench, VJ, 3CT and 20YS; and only slightly above average in BJ. He stood on those times at his pro day. His stats in college were not impressive (besides the TDs). He didn't do much in 16' or 17' This year he was barely the #1 guy with little separation between him and everyone else. Was that just the system, or something else?

The good. Looks like an NFL WR. Crisp routes and good hands. Understands how to play the game. A greater mix of tricks than you're use to in a college WR. Very low bust potential. Is able to make contested catches and catch through contact. Seems to have good body control. Critical short yardage situations are where his skill set shines the most.

The Bad. Allergic to YAC unless the defense messes up. The top speed and quickness clearly aren't there. If he can't make you fall into his trap then he can't get open, or open just enough that it needs to be perfectly timed and thrown. Ceiling is low. Run blocking is often whiffed.

This was probably the review you expected. Sorry it couldn't be more exciting. The question about Riley isn't if he can be a #1. The question is if he can be a #2 or #3? That entirely depends on how you define those things. For my money if he was my 2nd best option in the passing game I would not be at all happy about it. So I guess that means he's a premier #3 or a bad option 2nd. Personally I wouldn't considering taking such a player till day 2 was over. But he becomes very interesting when day 3 starts. Grade 4.9

 

[BobDigital]

So a minor update!

There's now 3 weeks before the draft. Right now I just made a list of all the prospects I want to do and that list contains 34 players. At the rate I'm going averaging over 2 a day I can take 6-10 request not on that list and still be done before the 25th of April. So if you have someone you want me to look at name them. Just so you know if it's someone generally projected to go by in round 1 or 2 they are probably already on my list. Still if you want them done early request it anyway.

Keep in mind I'm not looking at OL or RB as I've given up on trying to evaluate them haha

 

[BobDigital]

Clelin Ferrell – DE Clemson

6'4 264lbs. Back to back good years of production. Last year posted 19.5TFL and 11.5 sacks. At the combine his bench was okay. His 3CT and 2YS were neat the top of the list. Chose not to do the 40, BJ or VJ at his pro day blaming it on a toe injury. Personally I think he didn't want to do the events cause he believed they wouldn't help him.

This was a hard break down. Mostly because he was played besides a stacked line on a stacked defenses. It makes it hard to tell how much of what he did was him being good and how much was his team. The truth, as usual, is somewhere in the middle. I did a fun exercise and looked as his sacks all year. I count 6 sacks that had to do more with his team than him. Winning 1v1 vs TEs and RBs. Going in completely untouched. Getting the QB rolling into your waiting arms. Not elite plays. A lot of the plays he made were when he either perfectly timed the snap count or had a teammate help him get a favorable situation. When he had to play an OT straight up 1v1 without getting an advantage he did well, but he didn't look amazing.

something I like about his game is he's a fairly balanced pass rusher. He can both bull rush and beat you to the outside. That's something I tend to prefer in top prospects, however his speed to the outside isn't lightning fast and his bull rush rarely gets there in time. When is comes to his pass rush tricks he has a few good ones, but mainly relies on pushing the hands and arms away. That's the only move I'd say is at a particularly high level, but it isn't that high of a level.

His ability to hold the edge is good, not great. When put on the inside he usually gets bulled over, but will occasionally knife though. His ability to diagnose a play is maybe the best part of his game. A number of times I saw him cut off his rush early to cover the RB. Smart plays for sure. Overall he's a complete DE, but not a game changer, just a very good starter. Talk of him being a top 10 pick are unjustified IMO. Grade 6.6

 

[patchick]

So a minor update!

There's now 3 weeks before the draft. Right now I just made a list of all the prospects I want to do and that list contains 34 players. At the rate I'm going averaging over 2 a day I can take 6-10 request not on that list and still be done before the 25th of April. So if you have someone you want me to look at name them. Just so you know if it's someone generally projected to go by in round 1 or 2 they are probably already on my list. Still if you want them done early request it anyway.

Keep in mind I'm not looking at OL or RB as I've given up on trying to evaluate them haha

Tempting offer! Are Jalen Jelks and Dawson Knox on your list?

 

[BobDigital]

Tempting offer! Are Jalen Jelks and Dawson Knox on your list?

Nope. I'll check them out and try to get both done before the weekend.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Clelin Ferrell – DE Clemson

6'4 264lbs. Back to back good years of production. Last year posted 19.5TFL and 11.5 sacks. At the combine his bench was okay. His 3CT and 2YS were neat the top of the list. Chose not to do the 40, BJ or VJ at his pro day blaming it on a toe injury. Personally I think he didn't want to do the events cause he believed they wouldn't help him.

This was a hard break down. Mostly because he was played besides a stacked line on a stacked defenses. It makes it hard to tell how much of what he did was him being good and how much was his team. The truth, as usual, is somewhere in the middle. I did a fun exercise and looked as his sacks all year. I count 6 sacks that had to do more with his team than him. Winning 1v1 vs TEs and RBs. Going in completely untouched. Getting the QB rolling into your waiting arms. Not elite plays. A lot of the plays he made were when he either perfectly timed the snap count or had a teammate help him get a favorable situation. When he had to play an OT straight up 1v1 without getting an advantage he did well, but he didn't look amazing.

something I like about his game is he's a fairly balanced pass rusher. He can both bull rush and beat you to the outside. That's something I tend to prefer in top prospects, however his speed to the outside isn't lightning fast and his bull rush rarely gets there in time. When is comes to his pass rush tricks he has a few good ones, but mainly relies on pushing the hands and arms away. That's the only move I'd say is at a particularly high level, but it isn't that high of a level.

His ability to hold the edge is good, not great. When put on the inside he usually gets bulled over, but will occasionally knife though. His ability to diagnose a play maybe the best part of his game. A number of times I saw him cut off his rush early to cover the RB. Smart plays for sure. Overall he's a complete DE, but not a game changer, just a very good starter. Talk of him being a top 10 pick are unjustified IMO. Grade 6.6

Ferrrell is one of the few players for whom I would be completely comfortable trading up to draft. Seahawks at 21 might be a willing partner since they only have 4 picks (if I recall) and have all but advertized that their pick is for sale. He might not be an all pro game changer, but he looks like the perfect Patriot DE. I don't see how we have a shot at him without a trade, but we traded up for Chandler Jones and I'd put Ferrell in the same category. In fact, I liked his college tape a lot better.

 

[BobDigital]

Ferrrell is one of the few players for whom I would be completely comfortable trading up to draft. Seahawks at 21 might be a willing partner since they only have 4 picks (if I recall) and have all but advertized that their pick is for sale. He might not be an all pro game changer, but he looks like the perfect Patriot DE. I don't see how we have a shot at him without a trade, but we traded up for Chandler Jones and I'd put Ferrell in the same category. In fact, I liked his college tape a lot better.

Well I wouldn't hate trading up for him for the right price. Obviously he won't fall to 32, nor should he. He is a better player than that. Now if he is there are 21 it might be worth considering depending on what the board looks like. Personally I wouldn't use the capital to trade up the 21 to get him as I don't think he'd be worth what we'd need to give up. To me the value in this draft is between picks 45-90. I think we'll see players who would usually be very solid 2nd round picks fall all the way out of that round.

I would hate to give up any pick in that spot if I don't believe I'm getting a true game changer. Personally If we trade up for anyone I would rather it be Simmons. Not that I want to trade up for him either ideally.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Well I wouldn't hate trading up for him for the right price. Obviously he won't fall to 32, nor should he. He is a better player than that. Now if he is there are 21 it might be worth considering depending on what the board looks like. Personally I wouldn't use the capital to trade up the 21 to get him as I don't think he'd be worth what we'd need to give up. To me the value in this draft is between picks 45-90. I think we'll see a players who would usually be very solid 2nd round picks fall all the way out of that round.

I would hate to give up any pick in that spot if I don't believe I'm getting a true game changer. Personally If we trade up for anyone I would rather it be Simmons. Not that I want to trade up for him either ideally.

I think you're spot on that it depends on the board. I've thrown out a lot of names as potential targets at 32, even guys I don't think are first round "worthy" as year one starters, because there's a lot of volatility after the top 12 or 15 players. That probably signals that we should trade down, because I like a ton of players in that 40 - 100 range, but with 12 picks I'm also inclined to not worry about value as much as just getting the right guy.

For Ferrell specifically, I see him more like Lazar does, as an instant starter and borderline pro bowler. He might not be a double digit sack guy every year, although I think he has that potential, but he's NFL ready against the run and pass right now. Smart, tough, disciplined player with more athleticism than he's sometimes credited -- I think he could step right in and be a similar player to Flowers, with upside to post more sacks. We'll see, I guess. Best Patriots Draft Fits: Edge Defenders | CLNS Media

 

[BobDigital]

Dawson Knox – TE Ole Miss

6'4 254lbs. At the combine his bench was underwhelming but his VJ, 3CT and 20YS were all good. At the pro day his BJ was 122 inches, his 40 was 4.57 and 4.51 and his 3CT was 6.98. His 40 would've been 2nd best and his BJ would have tied for 3rd. His 3CT would've been #2. In the past 2 years he has failed to play full seasons but had no major injuries I could find. So what about the tape?

He didn't produce much the last 2 years and maybe part of that was being buried under great talent But I feel like if he was truly a better player he would've forced his way into their scheme more (we know how college can be though). I'll only partly hold that lack of production against him.

As for his play on the field I was disappointed after seeing his tested numbers . That isn't to say there aren't things to like. He has good hands and a nice catch radius. He adjust to the ball well and made a few tough catches. In the open field his speed mostly shows up well and he may be the best blocker I've seen so far in this class. The only thing I wouldn't ask him to do is pass block a DE, but no TE should be doing that alone.

The bad. When in man he never seems to get open. The only times I saw him beat man were due to a stumble, 2 defenders contacting each other and a very badly thrown pass he made a great adjustment on. He's a space player and if played tight he can be taken away. Seems unwilling to run into contact if he can help it. A few times he push and fell forward with a guy on him, but when it comes to the open field with a guy in front of him he hesitates.

His quickness doesn't show up on film and he may have no idea how to do the little tricks the WRs can get open when tightly covered. If he can't beat man he has to learn that. He isn't naturally a fluid athlete. Outside of inline situations he doesn't play up to his size. His balance seems okay, not good but okay. He can be a dependable blocker at the next level and when open in a zone he can gain you a nice chunk of yards. There's more talent to be tapped (but not as much as his test suggest). I see a very good TE #2 right now with upside to someday be a serviceable TE #1. Not good, but serviceable. Grade 5.1

 

[BobDigital]

Dexter Lawrence – NT/DT Clemson

6'4 342lbs. He had a very good combine considering his position and weight. He did very well in the 40 and bench. I couldn't find any other numbers on his pro day. Again it will be hard to separate him from his great teammates a bit. He has 3 years starting. His most statistically productive year was actually his freshman year which is kind of interesting. Maybe it has more to do with him becoming larger and more run defense focused?

Great run defense. Rarely goes backward. Usually gets decent push in the pocket. Can either hold his area or be active in getting to the QB. Has the ability to bull rush as well as use more lateral quickness than you would expect for a man his size. Has played along the line a little. Was already busted for PEDs in college and will be looked at closer because of it. If his initial burst is absorbed he doesn't have much chance to impact the play as a pass rusher.

When I look at Lawrence I see a good similarity to Wilfork in a lot of ways. The question really isn't if he's a good player. It's where does a player like him fit in the NFL these days? Lawrence isn't only a run defender, but that's most of what he'll do. He can pass rush some and collapse the pocket, but if I'm going to use a top pick on a DT I'd like one who does more to stop the passing game. While Lawrence is a very good player I just see his role being smaller in today's game than it would've been 15 years ago. I question if you really want a 350lb DT as a 3 down player, particularly on 3rd and long situations. If he isn't a guy you automatically want on the field in every situation it makes me question how high his value should be. Grade 6.3

 

[patchick]

When I like at Lawrence I see a good similarity to Wilfork in a lot of ways. The question really isn't ifs he's a good player. It's where does a player like him fit in the NFL these days?

That's why I can't pencil in Lawrence at #32. He's worthy of the pick in the abstract, and if he could line up at NT between Richard Seymour and Ty Warren he would be a force of nature. But that kind of player just doesn't carry the same value in the current defense.

 

[manxman2601]

I don’t remember Malcolm Brown or Danny Shelton offering much in the way off pass rush and we were prepared to spend a 1st on one and a 3rd for one year of the other. I’m not convinced pass rush from the interior is that important to us - that’s what the sub interior rushers are for.
It’s interesting that a forum that lusted after Vita Vea last year seems a bit less interested in Lawrence this year. Not meant as a dig at the forum (or any individuals), it’s just that they’re very similar prospects and for long periods, Vea was all this forum seemed to talk about last year.

I’ll leave you with one final nugget. In their freshman years, Ed Oliver and Lawrence had identical pass rushing grades from PFF. Lawrence is not just a run stuffer.

 

[manxman2601]

This thread is in my personal hall of fame of draft threads.

 

[manxman2601]

The Bad. He doesn't get much YAC. Goes down easier than he should.

One of the first things I noticed about him.