Will the Patriots use the franchise tag this year?

[Huckleberry1]

I would note that Vinatieri was franchised twice by the patriots.

And as much as I love Vinatieru his days kicking off in NE were seriously limited, and that isn’t the case for Gostkowski at all.

 

[Froob]

Are there any good kickers in the draft? We have a lot of picks and it’s going to cost a lot to keep Gost. If you get a guy making a million bucks that’s like 4-5 mill extra per season to work with.

Not ****ting on Gostowski here by the way, I’d prefer to just pay him, but I think there’s always that argument to be made if you can get a better value you might make it. That’s sorta what brought Gostowski here to begin with.

 

[kennyb]

Point is to tag and TRADE Flowers. Bingo extra picks.

Ghost? Guy chokes, sorry. Almost any stiff of the street could kick better than him. Belichick seems reluctant to use him at times.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Yep, but times have changed and it’s clear Gostkowski has years to go with his leg. Guaranteed money is what really matters, and they can do that.

Tagging can be a prelude to a longer deal. That happened last time they tagged Gostkowski.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Point is to tag and TRADE Flowers. Bingo extra picks.

Ghost? Guy chokes, sorry. Almost any stiff of the street could kick better than him. Belichick seems reluctant to use him at times.

The debate at the end of this SB was less about Gostkowski and more about the fact that a conversion ended the game, period, while a kick have the Rams a chance, as small as it was.

 

[kennyb]

He also went for it on 4th and 1 rather than kick a 49 yarder. Also the giants sb, going for it on 4th and 13 rather than kick a 50 yarder. He's a choker.

 

[patfanken]

Almost everyone here has thought for weeks (months?) that the only way to keep Flowers would be to franchise him and use $17.1M of the 2019 cap on him.

Personally, I don't think that it would be a good idea.

Maybe it's just me, but I think that we need to pay 3 WR's, a NT, 2 CB's, an OT, a K, a P, and hopefully Simon. Using $17.7M is just not the way to start.

The great thing is that we'll know soon.

I'm not looking for them to franchise him and keep him here for a year. I'm thinking that it might afford them more flexibility if they franchise him until the draft. Keep him off the market until after they see what they get in the draft. By then they will have a better idea of what their roster is gong to look like and THEN let him test the market after everyone else gets a piece of this defensive class and the market might not be so hot. And the Pat could have a better chance at keeping him at a number in the $13MM range/yr.

Then again, the Pats might feel that Flowers is a good solid player but more a product of the system and not worth more than 10MM/yr that someone will overpay for. When all is said and done, I think this is closer to the actual truth.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

He's a choker.

Then all kickers are chokers.

 

[mgteich]

Sorry, I don't understand.

Why would Flowers accept $13M from the patriots after the draft? He will have signed the tag and have accepted his guaranteed $17M. Are you suggesting that he would then sign a 3/$39M contract, essentially accepting $11M a year for 2020 and 2021?

Or are suggesting that you hope that Flowers doesn't sign his tag, and that the patriots can withdraw the tag and hope to sign him for $13M AAV?

I'm not looking for them to franchise him and keep him here for a year. I'm thinking that it might afford them more flexibility if they franchise him until the draft. Keep him off the market until after they see what they get in the draft. By then they will have a better idea of what their roster is gong to look like and THEN let him test the market after everyone else gets a piece of this defensive class and the market might not be so hot. And the Pat could have a better chance at keeping him at a number in the $13MM range/yr.

Then again, the Pats might feel that Flowers is a good solid player but more a product of the system and not worth more than 10MM/yr that someone will overpay for. When all is said and done, I think this is closer to the actual truth.

 

[patfanken]

Sorry, I don't understand.

Why would Flowers accept $13M from the patriots after the draft? He will have signed the tag and have accepted his guaranteed $17M. Are you suggesting that he would then sign a 3/$39M contract, essentially accepting $11M a year for 2020 and 2021?

Or are suggesting that you hope that Flowers doesn't sign his tag, and that the patriots can withdraw the tag and hope to sign him for $13M AAV?

Yeah, the latter. Again, there is a lot of speculation in my scenario. You spotted one key factor. Flowers would have to be willing not to sign the franchise tag until some predetermined time after the draft and before organized team activities in May.

For this to work I would guess Flowers would have to be self aware enough understand that just going to the team that will pay him the most might not be the best for him over the long term. Then the Pats would have to show him a contract that would be team friendly at say $13MM/yr, but would given him at least $17MM up front in his first year

The Pats have worked Brady's deals like that the last 2 times he's resigned. Huge money in a bonus and the rest over time. Brady's cap numbers during most of those cap numbers have shown to be less than market value, until the last 2 or 3 years

Just some "idle thoughts" on this. Also remember I'm writing this at 1:30 am after a pee break.

 

[supafly]

Sure wish they’d be able to use it on Flowers, but that would take up too much of the available cap space.

I really thought they’d treat this one differently.

 

[luuked]

I don’t, kickers last so I would give him the good guaranteed $$, and make the deal longer.

The point is to prevent him from being a FA on March 13. And the only way to guarantee that is with a franchise tag.

Unless Ghost is in a giving mood there is no reason for him or his agent to agree to a contract extension a week away from FA. He is not a middle class player that might get lost in the shuffle but would be a marquee FA in a league where it seems half of the teams have issues with kicking.

Franchise him and then use the spring to negotiate a 2-3 year contract that works for both sides.

I’m coming at it from he point of view that they need the tag for Flowers, although I hope I am wrong

That is the mistake in your approach. You are looking at the tag something that would be "wasted" on Ghost when in reality he is exactly the perfect case to use it on. Compared to Flowers not much money would hit the cap when he signs, meaning there is still a lot of flexibility they have to look at middle class FA / trades, they don't risk getting into a bidding war in a league with a lot of bad kicking and there is a realistic chance to actually reach an extension over the summer.

If you tag Flowers he will just play on the tag, cash 17m guaranteed and go into FA against next season. If the team was ready to sign him to an extension at the value he considers fair they will do it anyway. Having more time into the summer makes no difference for those negotiations.

In reality the tag is a tool to have leverage in negotiations or to buy time if you are close to an extension and think things will get done. But it is an awful idea to use it to just buy a year of time.

 

[FreeTedWilliams]

I think the Pats have told Flowers to go make his best deal, just give us a chance to meet or beat it before you sign elsewhere. It’s what they did with Hightower and Solder. Hightower did not get any stupid money offers so he signed back with the Pats. The Giants gave Solder a boatload of money and the Pats let him walk.

Flowers is great, he is as solid and dependable as they come. The Pats lost the only game he missed last year. Hopefully they can resign him, but with all the other DEs getting tagged, his price has just gone through the roof. The Pats May have to tag him and hope they can come to a long term deal.

 

[Huckleberry1]

The point is to prevent him from being a FA on March 13. And the only way to guarantee that is with a franchise tag.

Unless Ghost is in a giving mood there is no reason for him or his agent to agree to a contract extension a week away from FA. He is not a middle class player that might get lost in the shuffle but would be a marquee FA in a league where it seems half of the teams have issues with kicking.

Franchise him and then use the spring to negotiate a 2-3 year contract that works for both sides.



That is the mistake in your approach. You are looking at the tag something that would be "wasted" on Ghost when in reality he is exactly the perfect case to use it on. Compared to Flowers not much money would hit the cap when he signs, meaning there is still a lot of flexibility they have to look at middle class FA / trades, they don't risk getting into a bidding war in a league with a lot of bad kicking and there is a realistic chance to actually reach an extension over the summer.

If you tag Flowers he will just play on the tag, cash 17m guaranteed and go into FA against next season. If the team was ready to sign him to an extension at the value he considers fair they will do it anyway. Having more time into the summer makes no difference for those negotiations.

In reality the tag is a tool to have leverage in negotiations or to buy time if you are close to an extension and think things will get done. But it is an awful idea to use it to just buy a year of time.

I have more concern about losing Flowers to either Miami or the Jets than I do about losing Gostkowski, and using your tag logic it’s just a one year deal for either. I think they can get both done by finding out where the guaranteed money lines are and making sure both reach that number, I don’t think the overall value of the deal’s are as important as the guarantees.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

They can't lose Gostkowski, who would probably demand more as a FA than they would be willing to pay (see Vinatieri, Adam). So, they either do a deal or tag him.

I agree that the Flowers' case is more complicated, but I don't want them to lose him either.

 

[mgteich]

Unfortunately, this boils down to arithmetic. If Flowers is franchised, Flowers can sign and guarantee $17M for this year. A 3/$13M AAV contract would really be a 2/$11M AAV extension. I just don't see Flowers evaluating his 2020 and 2021 prospect to be worth $11M a year.

I don't even see Flowers signing for $13M a year for the extension. And, just BTW, he would need lots of money guaranteed.
========
That being said, if the team thinks that they are close to a deal with Flowers, then franchising makes some sense. A couple of the contenders would likely sign someone else.
However, the team should be prepared to pay him $17M in 2019 PLUS sign a reasonable extension. I don't think that such a total contract (including 2019) could be anywhere near $13M a year.

. Then the Pats would have to show him a contract that would be team friendly at say $13MM/yr, but would given him at least $17MM up front in his first year

 

[mgteich]

OPEN QUESTION
Is Flowers worth $17.1M of 2019 cap money for his 2019 services?
===================
If we franchise Flowers, I would expect no long-term deal. I would expect that we would be drafting a DE or two in the first 6 picks of the draft, with the idea of Flowers leaving after the season.

I could see Belichick doing this, but I don't think so.
====
BY THE WAY
Even if the team were successful in trading him in May or June, they would have lost the use of $17M of cap money between now and then.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I have more concern about losing Flowers to either Miami or the Jets than I do about losing Gostkowski, and using your tag logic it’s just a one year deal for either. I think they can get both done by finding out where the guaranteed money lines are and making sure both reach that number, I don’t think the overall value of the deal’s are as important as the guarantees.

Again, using the tag is not the same as the player playing on it. They can still negotiate a LTD.

 

[Froob]

If this guys the real deal and can grab him in the 5th round after a trade back, it’d save us quite a bit of cap room if Gostowski gets 4-6 mill. We have more picks than we can use

1. Cole Tracy, K, LSU
   Height: 5-11. Weight: 188.
   Projected Round (2019): 5-7.
   2/25/19: The graduate transfer Tracy was excellent for LSU in 2018, nailing a lot of clutch field goals, including going 5-for-5 to help the Tigers pull off an upset over Georgia. In 2018, Tracy was 29-of-33, with all but one of his misses coming in the 50-plus-yard range. His long was 54 yards. He also didn't miss an extra point.
   
   Prior to playing for LSU, Tracy was one of the top kickers in Division II. He won the award for the best kicker in Division II for 2017 after he was 27-of-29 in his junior year playing for Assumption College.

WalterFootball.com: 2019 NFL Draft: Kicker Rankings

Kinda a careful what you wish for situation, Gost has been one of the most accurate kickers ever putting his big misses in the playoffs these past few seasons aside.

 

[Ring 6]

OPEN QUESTION
Is Flowers worth $17.1M of 2019 cap money for his 2019 services?
===================
If we franchise Flowers, I would expect no long-term deal. I would expect that we would be drafting a DE or two in the first 6 picks of the draft, with the idea of Flowers leaving after the season.

I could see Belichick doing this, but I don't think so.
====
BY THE WAY
Even if the team were successful in trading him in May or June, they would have lost the use of $17M of cap money between now and then.

No he isn’t and few players are.
Paying players at or near the top of their positions pay scale has never proven to be a sound way to build and sustain a winner.
Football is an odd sport. People focus on the 3 or 4 biggest names (who by the way made those names surrounded by teammates) and think that is the key to a good team when the reality is your (lack of or limitation of) weaknesses are as, and often more, critical to success than you strengths.

If you replace flowers with deadrick wise, for example, you gave a big droppoff at one position but 15,000,000 to spend to improve others.