Dilfer: NE offense very different, thinks spread should come back

[QuantumMechanic]

I thought this story, with an extended quote from Trent Dilfer, was interesting.

He says the NE offense has been a lot different than it’s been in a long time and thinks using more spread would fix things.

https://sports.yahoo.com/former-nfl-player-offers-interesting-201849631.html

 

[primetime]

I thought this story, with an extended quote from Trent Dilfer, was interesting.

He says the NE offense has been a lot different than it’s been in a long time and thinks using more spread would fix things.

https://sports.yahoo.com/former-nfl-player-offers-interesting-201849631.html

I agree. It's interesting they've gone back to a pre-2003 scheme with 21 personnel as a base offense when the most successful offenses in the league use a 11 base for everything. I don't think a fullback works in today's NFL except in certain short yardage situations. Develin being on the field lets the defense stack the box, and he's slower and smaller than most of the defensive players he comes up against. Same goes for Allen, who the defense can safely ignore as a receiving threat. That makes running harder, not easier. It's funny, because the Patriots run defense is so putrid precisely because they're very often in 3-2-6 or 4-1-6 personnel to match with receivers and their linemen just get plowed.

I don't know, this feels like one of those situations where Belichick/McDaniels zigged when the league zagged. Usually that works out for the Patriots, but this time it seems to be really hurting them.

 

[PittPatriot]

I think Rex and James White basically play the same role. Perhaps Rex is a better in between the tackles runner than white? Perhaps white is the better route runner and pass catcher?
If Phillip Dorsett is not a part of the mix (apparently he is not). I’d put James White on the line as a receiver either in the slot or out wide.

 

[oldrover]

On a related note... more hurry-up offense, please. They really seem to benefit from...





...that tiny burst of speed.

 

[primetime]

On a related note... more hurry-up offense, please. They really seem to benefit from...





...that tiny burst of speed.

Well, that's part of the spread that Dilfer is talking about, but I also agree with this, the offense's tempo has been an issue all year. The plodding pace and fullback make it look more like offenses of the 80s than today.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Interesting take. Our offense has really struggled in all of our losses except the Miami game. It seems like Bill drafted Michel in order to protect old man Brady but it hasn’t worked out as planned.

 

[mgteich]

We have been PLEADING for more of a running game for a couple of years. We now have Michel, Burkhead, White and Develin. Possibly, we'll add Hill or someone else for 2019.

Going back would be fine except for the age, speed and health of Brady, Gronk and Edelman, the keys to the offense you all seem to want to go back to. The OL is up to it. The lightly used backup receivers are up to it (Hogan, Dorsett and Patterson).

 

[RobertWeathers]

I agree. It's interesting they've gone back to a pre-2003 scheme with 21 personnel as a base offense when the most successful offenses in the league use a 11 base for everything. I don't think a fullback works in today's NFL except in certain short yardage situations. Develin being on the field lets the defense stack the box, and he's slower and smaller than most of the defensive players he comes up against. Same goes for Allen, who the defense can safely ignore as a receiving threat. That makes running harder, not easier. It's funny, because the Patriots run defense is so putrid precisely because they're very often in 3-2-6 or 4-1-6 personnel to match with receivers and their linemen just get plowed.

I don't know, this feels like one of those situations where Belichick/McDaniels zigged when the league zagged. Usually that works out for the Patriots, but this time it seems to be really hurting them.

I'm not buying what Dilfer is selling. Whats even more interesting is the article shows Tom basically having the same numbers as last year.

If he wants to pull out some historicals which show Tom's efficiency (or inefficiency) and production splits based on the formation and play calls which support his assertion then fine.

Any problems the offense has are based on a lack of execution and personnel (see less talent and injuries).

 

[RobertWeathers]

Well, that's part of the spread that Dilfer is talking about, but I also agree with this, the offense's tempo has been an issue all year. The plodding pace and fullback make it look more like offenses of the 80s than today.

Agree. Tempo and rhythm has been lacking. I think that has more to do with the playcalling than formations.

 

[Uptown]

My opinion: we need to open up the playbook. Utilize the versatility of Da Burkmeister, White, CP, Michel & maybe even Dorsett. We have mismatches all over our offense. While teams always keep a few tricks up their sleeves for the playoffs, I believe this is what we’ve been waiting to see all year, along with that “NE tempo” which we’re so accustomed to. This is what we’ll see in January & (hopefully Feb).

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Any problems the offense has are based on a lack of execution and personnel (see less talent and injuries).

And coaching...

 

[Gronk]

There have been consistently weird playcalling, pace, and personnel decisions on offense all year. I'm not sure that spread and hurry-up is a fix-all to what's wrong, mainly because you could put Gronk, Edelman, Gordon, Hogan, and Dorsett all on the field and it sounds great but there isn't much evidence from THIS season than any of the 5 would consistently (or even frequently) win their matchup in man-to-man quickly enough to allow Tom to get the ball out of his hands in 2/3 seconds. I'm not sure if the 5 guys I listed above have EVER all been in on a play together, which is just dumb. Why not? When LGB was around we often bemoaned how obvious their run formations became. Somehow that's gotten worse even though we have RBs that are viable in both run/pass situations. I did love Burkhead's couple runs late last week where he just refused to go down, at least someone had some fight in them. Anyway, I'm not sure that spread alone is the answer - poor and inconsistent execution of what they're trying to do is a much more direct culprit of their struggles - but certainly revisiting some of those concepts would be quite welcome.

 

[maineman209]

I agree with Dilfer that the Pats have been playing a significantly different offensive scheme this season. I also agree that the Pats haven't been executing it with much consistency - awesomely sometimes, awfully at other times.

OTOH, on the rare occasion that the offense has run the spread+hurry-up, they've executed very well and sometimes been dominant.

Dilfer's "protecting the defense" hypothesis also has some merit, obviously. OTOH, the Pats have been running some widely-varying schemes there, too. The unusual amount of dime the past two games might be an example. And, again, inconsistent execution has been a huge problem.

The optimist in me suspects that the Pats will run different offensive and defensive schemes in the playoffs - perhaps radically different - that combine just the elements that they've been executing well.

 

[Ring 6]

My opinion: we need to open up the playbook. Utilize the versatility of Da Burkmeister, White, CP, Michel & maybe even Dorsett. We have mismatches all over our offense. While teams always keep a few tricks up their sleeves for the playoffs, I believe this is what we’ve been waiting to see all year, along with that “NE tempo” which we’re so accustomed to. This is what we’ll see in January & (hopefully Feb).

The patriot playoff offense is different than the patriot regular season offense.
In Brady’s last 16 post season starts (16 to compare to a regular season) he has thrown 712 passses.
In the last 8, he has thrown 379 passing for 2881 yards and 18 TDs averaging 30 ppg scored.

 

[aluminum seats]

Interesting take. Our offense has really struggled in all of our losses except the Miami game. It seems like Bill drafted Michel in order to protect old man Brady but it hasn’t worked out as planned.

I think that may be true, that rather than trying to protect the defense as Dilfer said, it’s about Brady.

JG left, Belichick said, ok, this is going to be the guy until he’s 45, we’re drafting a running back, we’re drafting offensive linemen, we’re not going to make Brady do everything.

Interesting...this team is healthy..the playoffs are going to be fascinating.

 

[Ring 6]

I agree with Dilfer that the Pats have been playing a significantly different offensive scheme this season. I also agree that the Pats haven't been executing it with much consistency - awesomely sometimes, awfully at other times.

OTOH, on the rare occasion that the offense has run the spread+hurry-up, they've executed very well and sometimes been dominant.

Dilfer's "protecting the defense" hypothesis also has some merit, obviously. OTOH, the Pats have been running some widely-varying schemes there, too. The unusual amount of dime the past two games might be an example. And, again, inconsistent execution has been a huge problem.

The optimist in me suspects that the Pats will run different offensive and defensive schemes in the playoffs - perhaps radically different - that combine just the elements that they've been executing well.

I think it’s a reasonable optimism for a team that has a 27-10 post season record.

 

[juny]

i think the offense has been ok until they get into the red zone. hope the stats back it up, but it feels like they are getting too many 3s instead of 7s once they get there

 

[Uptown]

i think the offense has been ok until they get into the red zone. hope the stats back it up, but it feels like they are getting too many 3s instead of 7s once they get there

Yep. If we clean up our red zone offense/mental mistakes/run D.....we’ll be playing in ATL & it won’t be against the Falcons.

 

[Triumph]

The guys on the other team know Brady likes the short game and they take it away.

The Steelers did not play zone which leaves holes in the defense. They played man forcing tight windows and the clock ticking down in the pocket where Brady is waiting for an opening. Rex Ryan did the exact same thing in past seasons vs NE so I dont not buy the scheme change.

Patricia and Vrabel showed the league how beat the NE offense this year. Bradys 2 worst games thus far were vs Detroit and Tenn. Combined, Brady was sacked 5 times, 1 TD and 1 INT. His completion % hovered around 50%.in both affairs.

Blocking is a factor too and Brady is less effective when he gets hit or knocked down. Even when he completes a pass, the defense is still knocking him down. Watch. Over the course of 4 quarters that takes it toll on Brady.

The prefect storm is why the Pats are losing.

 

[maineman209]

i think the offense has been ok until they get into the red zone. hope the stats back it up, but it feels like they are getting too many 3s instead of 7s once they get there

YEAR ... RZ ATT ... RZ TDs ... RZ% ... rank
2018 ..... 50 ....... 29 ..... 58% .... 16
2017 ..... 70 ....... 42 ..... 60% ..... 5
2016 ..... 60 ....... 38 ..... 63% ..... 8
2015 ..... 61 ....... 40 ..... 66% ..... 4
2014 ..... 67 ....... 39 ..... 58% ..... 9
2013 ..... 65 ....... 36 ..... 55% .... 15

It looks to me like the Pats' TD% in the RZ hasn't been a huge issue compared to the last few seasons. However, getting into the RZ seems like it may have been a bit of a problem this season.

The Pats will need to get into the RZ 10 times in these last two games, and score TDs on 6 or 7 of those trips, to get close to matching where they were in 2016.

Obviously, the rankings are pretty useless.

----------
Defense:

YEAR ... RZ ATT ... RZ TDs ... RZ% ... rank
2018 ..... 43 ....... 27 ..... 63% .... 23
2017 ..... 48 ....... 21 ..... 44% ..... 4
2016 ..... 44 ....... 23 ..... 52% ..... 8
2015 ..... 42 ....... 24 ..... 57% .... 16
2014 ..... 46 ....... 22 ..... 48% ..... 6
2013 ..... 50 ....... 28 ..... 56% .... 16
2012 ..... 46 ....... 24 ..... 52% .... 13
2011 ..... 61 ....... 34 ..... 56% .... 21
2010 ..... 50 ....... 27 ..... 54% .... 19

RZ TD% allowed this season is the worst it's been in a long time.