2019 Front Six

[mgteich]

I don't think this group is bad at all going into the offseason. Yes, we need to replace Flowers. Yes, we need to draft a DT and a LB, but we start with a good group.

DL: Wise, Guy, Clayborne, Brown, Butler, Simon
LB: Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, Bentley, Sam
ST: King

???: Rivers, Davis, Shelton

 

[signbabybrady]

I don't think this group is bad at all going into the offseason. Yes, we need to replace Flowers. Yes, we need to draft a DT and a LB, but we start with a good group.

DL: Wise, Guy, Clayborne, Brown, Butler, Simon
LB: Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, Bentley, Sam

???: Rivers, Davis, Shelton

You take Flowers away from this group and things are very different. Wise and Bentley are still getting better so maybe one of them takes that leap to elite like Flowers did but short of that we really need to bring Flowers back.

 

[mgteich]

You take Flowers away from this group and things are very different. Wise and Bentley are still getting better so maybe one of them takes that leap to elite like Flowers did but short of that we really need to bring Flowers back.

We might be able to find a replacement for Flowers for a better value than the $12-15M AAV that Flowers will require. I agree that we need to sign a top DE.

This isn't a large shopping list. We need to sign a top DE and draft a DT.

 

[signbabybrady]

We might be able to find a replacement for Flowers for a better value than the $12-15M AAV that Flowers will require. I agree that we need to sign a top DE.

This isn't a large shopping list. We need to sign a top DE and draft a DT.

Possible but not likely. I was OK with letting Chandler Jones walk but this one will hurt a little more I think. More than anything letting Flowers walk comes down to BBs thoughts on the upside of Wise and Bently.

 

[RayClay]

We might be able to find a replacement for Flowers for a better value than the $12-15M AAV that Flowers will require. I agree that we need to sign a top DE.

This isn't a large shopping list. We need to sign a top DE and draft a DT.

Why do you assume that salary? We always hit the panic button and assume we can't re-sign Vollmer or Hightower, for example, then we do. We'll sign who we can and I disagree we're set elsewhere.

Van Noy looks prime, but I see no locks elsewhere. Brown and Guy are not more than average talents. I assume we might coach Shelton up, but we could use an earthmover in there.

Hightower is year to year as far as being an exceptional LB. Love Bentley, but he really hasn't played/shown much. Sign Flowers if they can and just keep acquiring talent there. A Position in flux IMO. Also, we have depth at pass rusher if guys like Rivers and Davis can bloom, but they are not yet a mature, effective unit.


"

 

[primetime]

You think that's pretty good, I think that's cringeworthy. Van Noy is the best player of the bunch and, while underrated, he's hardly a star. About that defensive line, the less said the better.

 

[BelizePats]

If Browns 5th year option wasn't picked up by the team, will he even be on the roster in 2019?
I can live with the LB corps for 2019, particularly if Bentley and Sam can contribute anything.

But, the Dline is the weak link from my perspective. Shelton has been an disaster and when he's a healthy scratch, the D is actually better. Claybourn has been somewhat of a disappointment, given his salary, lack of production and undisciplined, inability to set the edge. Flowers I hope we keep but if his salary is in the range that "experts" have been throwing around, he's long gone.
Draft a DT in the first and use the Bears second to take the best DE available.

 

[mgteich]

You think that's pretty good, I think that's cringeworthy. Van Noy is the best player of the bunch and, while underrated, he's hardly a star. About that defensive line, the less said the better.

I get it. You consider our current defensive front just awful.

I consider that it is respectable and will be improved by adding bentley (and perhaps Sam) next year, in addition to any other signees or draftees.

It is simply a matter of judgement and perspective.

 

[mgteich]

I don't consider our DT's a disaster with Brown, Guy, and Butler, Sure, we can use a better 4th than Shelton, and I'm sure that will happen, perhaps with a 1st rounder as you suggest.
And yes, perhaps we will sign someone better than Brown.

.

But, the Dline is the weak link from my perspective. Shelton has been an disaster and when he's a healthy scratch, the D is actually better. Claybourn has been somewhat of a disappointment, given his salary, lack of production and undisciplined, inability to set the edge. Flowers I hope we keep but if his salary is in the range that "experts" have been throwing around, he's long gone.
Draft a DT in the first and use the Bears second to take the best DE available.

 

[BelizePats]

What I actually said was that I consider the Dline the weak link in the D. It was Shelton that I referred to as a disaster. I hope they resign Brown to reasonable money for 2-3 years but after not picking up his 5th year option, he'll be a free agent at the end of the year and there are a lot of bad teams and GM's that seem committed to overpaying our FA's.
Overall I think they need to upgrade at the DT position and to me, this is priority 1 for the team.

 

[mgteich]

Sure Shelton is a disaster, but why does that matter? He sits at then of the bench (actually inactive) with Rivers and Davis. The DL that plays is doing a good job. And, I think that almost everyone agrees that the team will try to get an upgrade to Brown in free agency, or in the early rounds of the draft.

What I actually said was that I consider the Dline the weak link in the D. It was Shelton that I referred to as a disaster. I hope they resign Brown to reasonable money for 2-3 years but after not picking up his 5th year option, he'll be a free agent at the end of the year and there are a lot of bad teams and GM's that seem committed to overpaying our FA's.
Overall I think they need to upgrade at the DT position and to me, this is priority 1 for the team.

 

[BelizePats]

I think matters given the cost to acquire him. I would much rather have that 3rd back and no Danny Shelton and Clevelands 5th. I realize that that this is said with the benefit of hindsight. I guess he provides some depth in case of injury.
I would say that the Dline has played well recently and I certainly hope this trend continues.
I would hope that the Pats deal with the Dline upgrade in the draft. Free agency often leads to poorly spent money, in my opinion.

 

[holyredeemer]

I don't think this group is bad at all going into the offseason. Yes, we need to replace Flowers. Yes, we need to draft a DT and a LB, but we start with a good group.

DL: Wise, Guy, Clayborne, Brown, Butler, Simon
LB: Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, Bentley, Sam
ST: King

???: Rivers, Davis, Shelton

•Wise is okay. I’m a huge fan of the energy he brings to that field, but this year he hasn’t made much of a jump, and continues to be a liability in the run game. I would love to see him take a leap next year, but wouldn’t bet on it.
•Guy is a solid, lunch pail guy and we need him around.
•Clayborne has flashed, but shown no consistency. His best role IMO would be as a situational back up.
•Brown is what he is. We’ve never gotten the production out of him that we wanted, but he’s not awful. Again, rotational guy.
•Butler is a rotational guy. Fringe player.
•Not sure what we have in Simon yet. If we keep him around, he might be a solid find.
•Not sure what to make of HT. He looks like a completely different player out there vs previous seasons, and next year he’s going to be another year older.
•I love Van Noy. Very under rated player, but as someone said before me, he’s not a pro bowl caliber guy.
•Hopefully Bentley comes back healed up and ready to pick up where he left off.
•Sam, no idea what we have in the guy.
•Roberts is a guy that’ll make a solid play here and there, but can’t be depended on full time.

So what do we have? A whole lot of uncertainty and not a single stalwart in the front 7. Solid? Sure. But, it’s a group of guys that are going to be exploited from time to time or just **** the bed here and there. If Flowers walks and we enter the season with that group and no significant push made to sign an impactful FA, trade for a few guys, or draft a top half guy, I won’t be exactly sold on the group.

That’s what the offseason is for.

Buckle up kiddos, this offseason is going to be one wild ass ride!

 

[maineman209]

Estimating a value for each player based on snap count distributions, and taking injuries into account, it appears to me that the top four in EDGE rotation are (when they're all fully healthy):
- Flowers, Clayborn, Simon, Wise

Flowers has been getting the largest snap share by far, averaging 81%/game when healthy. Clayborn, Simon, and Wise have all been in the 35%-45% range (varying from game-to-game). The issue has been that all four have only been fully healthy the last two games, and in week-4 (v. MIA), which was Simon's debut. Simon hurt his shoulder early in week-5 (IND), was out for two games, and then (apparently) on a "pitch count" for the next three games leading up to the BYE.

Davis, essentially a rookie, has made a much stronger case as reserve DE than has Rivers (also, essentially a rookie). In his six appearances, Davis has averaged 43% of the D-snaps. Davis was effectively the #4 DE through the first three games until Simon was signed, and then the #4 again for three games while Simon was on a "pitch count". Rivers, meanwhile, has averaged only 14% over his five games active.

My guess is that there's about a 55% chance the Pats retain Flowers on a $12M-$14M APY contract. I'm also guessing that Clayborn (high cap cost included) stays until the Pats have an adequate replacement in hand. I'm pretty sure that Davis and Rivers- both of them dirt cheap - stay until the end of Camp (because, why not?). Wise stays, of course, even if he's hit his ceiling. I also think the Pats may try to retain Simon on a 2-year deal at relatively short money.

None of this precludes the Pats acquiring OTA/Camp competition for Clayborn, Simon, Rivers and Davis via the draft or free agency.
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On the INTERIOR DL, for the first three games, Guy, Brown and Shelton were more or less equal in snap-count percentages (45%-55%), while Butler seemed to be used situtionally (25%-35%). Butler appeared to be taking some snaps away from Shelton in wk-4 (MIA) and in wk-5 (IND) until Brown hurt his knee. Shelton hit his high snap percentag for the season in wk-6 (KCY, 61%)) when Brown was out.

Starting in wk-8, Shelton's snap percentages clearly began to decline, while Brown's and Butler's increased. Since the BYE, Shelton played 14% against the Jets and then was a healthy scratch against Minny.

My guess is that the Pats really try to retain Brown, and that Shelton may not get a competitive offer, if he receives one at all. I also think that the Pats will acquire another 2-3 DTs via the draft and free agency, regardless what happens with Brown.

-----------------
In the first three weeks of the season, before he tore his bicep, Bentley was averaging pretty close to the same snap percentages as Hightower and Van Noy, and easily justifying his snap counts with his contributions. He was starting-caliber from the get-go.

Since then, it's been the Van Noy & Hightower show, with Van Noy averaging between 90%-100% of the D-snaps, Hightower averaging between 75%-90%, and Roberts filling in with right around 50%. Roberts' play has improved significantly this season, enough so that both BB and Flores have remarked on it. Basically, for this first time in awhile, in 2019 the Pats will have four competent to very good LBs under contract, all between the ages of 23 (Bentley) and 29 (Hightower). That's pretty much a full rack. Also, according to both BB and Flores, the KVN-HT duo + Roberts have been playing together long enough that their communication has been outstanding this season. That's pretty much a full rack.

But then,there's Hightower's cap hits - $10.4M in 2019 and $11.4M in 2020 - and his past unreliability. The Pats could save a bit over $5M on the 2019 cap and almost $9M on the 2020 cap by getting something for him in trade. If he finishes this season unscatched, there would be no better time to move him. OTOH, Van Noy and Roberts are both free agents at the end of 2019, while Hightower is signed through 2020.

Whether Hightower is traded in the spring or not, I expect that the Pats will acquire at least a couple LB prospects on draft weekend who are at least potentially capable of replacing McClellan and/or Humber on ST, both of whom will be over 32 before the season starts.

 

[TheRainMaker]

Why do you assume that salary?

I'd like to know that too. Why do people keep assuming he's worth the same if not more than what Danielle Hunter just got one year ago? Most people on this board and media that throw these high numbers around have nothing to back it up as to why he warrants that type of money . In addition, people aren't factoring in his competition: he could possibly go up against DeMarcus Lawrence (may not get tagged again), Frank Clark (probably gets tagged), Ziggy Ansah, Jadaveon Clowney and Donte Fowler to name a few . And not to mention he's never had more than 6.5 sacks in a season. If he wants to come close to the money people think he'll get, he'll have to end the season with 8 or more sacks like most of his competitors.

 

[NashuaPats]

I haven't heard a thing about Rivers since the season began. I remember he looked promising in the 2017 preseason. Does anyone have any insight on the guy?

 

[JayNM]

You sure are more optimistic than I... I think our Front 7 is pretty bad without Flowers and, when the gameplan is not perfect and you need players to rise up, we often see that... Basically, what I'm saying is that we have good coaches that masquerade bad players

I think we need a major overhaul there. Because of that, I am really hoping that we keep Flowers, as the foundation type. Then we draft heavily in those positions.

Not counting the guys on rookie deals, the only guy I'd keep out of these is Guy and Van Noy. All others are repleaceble (including Hightower, who I think we all agree has lost a step) IMO

 

[MrBigglesWorth]

I see the defensive tackles as the weakness. Years past they had wilfork then Alan branch and even akiem Hicks... Many times this season they've been outright awful against the run.. they are awful against scrambling qbs.. watch out for Josh Allen.. the tackles put no pressure on the qb and as a result the ends over pursue... They were so desperate they put Trey flowers over the center against both greenbay and Minnesota ... Minnesota was stupid and threw too much.. Danny Shelton was not even active... I expect him not active tomorrow. Next yr I expect Malcolm brown and Shelton gone... Guy and Butler are good rotational but they need a major defensive tackle upgrade who can hold the line of scrimmage and put pressure in the qb... The ends are good.. flowers might be their best player on the entire team not named Brady and should get his money. I think the dline is pretty weak. It won't show up until the playoffs I suspect... They couldnt stop the eagles running game in the SB

Van noy is their best lb.. hightower will likely get a restructure.. roberts guesses too much on gaps.. Bentley shows promise

I don't think this group is bad at all going into the offseason. Yes, we need to replace Flowers. Yes, we need to draft a DT and a LB, but we start with a good group.

DL: Wise, Guy, Clayborne, Brown, Butler, Simon
LB: Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, Bentley, Sam
ST: King

???: Rivers, Davis, Shelton

 

[cstjohn17]

I don't think this group is bad at all going into the offseason. Yes, we need to replace Flowers. Yes, we need to draft a DT and a LB, but we start with a good group.

DL: Wise, Guy, Clayborne, Brown, Butler, Simon
LB: Hightower, Van Noy, Roberts, Bentley, Sam
ST: King

???: Rivers, Davis, Shelton

DT
Wise = JAG
Guy - Good player
Clayborne = JAG
Brown = Free Agent
Butler = JAG
Simon = Who?

LB
Hightower = Good player
Van Noy = Good player
Roberts = Sucks
Bentley = Who knows
Sam = Who knows

Rivers, Davis = suck
Shelton = Super suck (and he is a free agent)

Comparing to other teams the have a serious talent deficiency especially on the D line (DT & DE are both brutal). Good news is that the draft is deep along the line but don't try to sell me on this being a quality group.

 

[mgteich]

I read your thread, and conclude that we are in fine shape. Sure we can use a draft pick or two to upgrade, and will need to re-sign or replace Flowers, but the core is a top 10 defense.

•Wise is okay. I’m a huge fan of the energy he brings to that field, but this year he hasn’t made much of a jump, and continues to be a liability in the run game. I would love to see him take a leap next year, but wouldn’t bet on it.
•Guy is a solid, lunch pail guy and we need him around.
•Clayborne has flashed, but shown no consistency. His best role IMO would be as a situational back up.
•Brown is what he is. We’ve never gotten the production out of him that we wanted, but he’s not awful. Again, rotational guy.
•Butler is a rotational guy. Fringe player.
•Not sure what we have in Simon yet. If we keep him around, he might be a solid find.
•Not sure what to make of HT. He looks like a completely different player out there vs previous seasons, and next year he’s going to be another year older.
•I love Van Noy. Very under rated player, but as someone said before me, he’s not a pro bowl caliber guy.
•Hopefully Bentley comes back healed up and ready to pick up where he left off.
•Sam, no idea what we have in the guy.
•Roberts is a guy that’ll make a solid play here and there, but can’t be depended on full time.

So what do we have? A whole lot of uncertainty and not a single stalwart in the front 7. Solid? Sure. But, it’s a group of guys that are going to be exploited from time to time or just **** the bed here and there. If Flowers walks and we enter the season with that group and no significant push made to sign an impactful FA, trade for a few guys, or draft a top half guy, I won’t be exactly sold on the group.

That’s what the offseason is for.

Buckle up kiddos, this offseason is going to be one wild ass ride!