Possible Contributions By 1st Or 2nd Rounders

[patfanken]

QB - I honestly can't say which (if any) of the QB prospects available in this draft - at any pick - might be viewed by BB as an adequate (or better) candidate to try to develop into Brady's replacement. I really have no idea how BB might evaluate such prospects, and I absolutely do not trust any QB scouting reports from anyone to be any closer to how BB actually sees things than I am. So, I can't project that BB won't sell most of the Pats 2018 and 2019 top draft picks draft to move up into the top-5 for a QB prospect, and I'm equally unable to project that he won't just skip QB this draft altogether. AFAIK, there are roughly equal chances that it could go to either extreme or end up somewhere in the "middle." A drafted QB would seem unlikely to contribute much in 2018, regardless when he's selected.

This might be viewed as blasphemy, but while I can see the Pats drafting a QB this April in the first 3 rounds, unlike the media hype, I DON'T see the urgency for the Pats to find THE Brady replacement in this draft. There is always next year in the draft, and they way offenses are run these days, there will be a ton of QB's coming out (again), who have had a lot of success throwing the football.

The KEY element if finding one that works is NOT going to be how well they throw the ball, but rather how quickly they can process what they see and make the right decision WHERE to throw the ball. Footwork, mechanics, and velocity can all be coached up. The ability to process the field at NFL speed is the real gift. I'm not sure how you can determine if someone has the "gift" but THAT is what makes Brady, Brady.

I don't see them squandering all that draft currency for a shot at any of the top 5 since none of THEM are sure things either. I'd like to see them draft one of the 2nd tier guys like Lauletta (especially since I was coached by his grandfather) and see what happens over the course of a couple of years. It should also be noted all the young veteran QB movement this year. Who is to say that over the next few years Brady's replacement may come, not from the draft. but through FA. I saw a case for Paxton Lynch made here a while back and it was a good one. HIS college stats were every bit as good as guys expected to go in the top 5 this year. Maybe coaching can fix what is keeping him back.

The point being, this isn't a do or die year to get Brady's replacement and the eventual guy DOESN'T necessarily have to come from the draft.


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[patfanken]

Was the comment below about IOL's? If so, I agree.

I any case, do you think that anyone at 23 or later is capable of starting at RT?

Also, do you consider McGlinchey out of our reach (many think so; I'm just asking)?

It's been our experience to see a number of rookies get significant time as rookies, so it can certainly happen again. But here's the thing. I think that by the time 23 comes around all the true first round OL talent will be long . What will be left will be 3rd and 4th round talent that will be over drafted simply because they are the "next best players".

Now clearly we have done very well in the 3rd and 4th rounds in finding Thuney and Mason recently. But its a matter of effective use of draft capital. Lets use those first 3 picks on guys with 20-50 grades.

As to McGlinchey, he'll be gone in the first half of the round. jmho.

 

[maineman209]

Got Rivers coming back who always seems to be a forgotten factor. Whether he plays de/lb remains to be seen, but it seems like a safe bet that he is almost a bonified 2018 draft pick considering the injury and not being able to play in his rookie season. Had huge upside with many pundits claiming he could of been the best defensive impact in last years draft.

Still want another LB and safety in this draft as well as another CB.

I don't think that Rivers has been forgotten, he simply hasn't "come back" yet.

All we've seen so far is how the coaches used him in a couple pre-season games and how he performed in those limited assignments. We really don't know how the coaches evaluated those performances or how they'd have used him over the course of the regular season, if he hadn't gotten injured.

While his experience in last summer's OTAs and last year's Camp hypothetically give him an advantage over 2018 rookies, Rivers pretty much needs to prove himself all over again.

 

[AzorianPats]

Got Rivers coming back who always seems to be a forgotten factor. Whether he plays de/lb remains to be seen, but it seems like a safe bet that he is almost a bonified 2018 draft pick considering the injury and not being able to play in his rookie season. Had huge upside with many pundits claiming he could of been the best defensive impact in last years draft.

Still want another LB and safety in this draft as well as another CB.

Along with Rivers, I will add Garcia (who I believe is the future LT) the second year jump for Wise Jr, and the additions of Danny Shelton and Adrian Clayborn and the return of Vincent Valentine.

I'm with you on picking a LB and Safety. Hightower is a beast, but is hurt a lot and is getting up there in age, while Van Noy is good, but even he was dinged up quite a bit last year .If we were to get a guy like LVE, or Rashaan Evans would be huge .

Like wise with safety. Mccourty and Chung are getting up there and Harmon is decent, but a Justin Reid or Ronnie Harrison would be awesome, or maybe even a Derwin James (with a trade up) is in play .

I think the roster as it stands today is in prime position to win a SB. I think this draft is more finding some up in coming talent to build the future around .

 

[supafly]

I think the roster as it stands today is in prime position to win a SB. I think this draft is more finding some up in coming talent to build the future around .

I think that’s slightly optimistic, although I agree with most of what you say. In my opinion, the way the team looks right now on 4/9 is that they’re lined up for another division title and playoff run, possibly even another AFCCG appearance—which is saying a lot when you really think about it.

In order for them to not only get back to the SB and win it again, I think we’ll not only need most of the new additions to look good (Clayborn, Shelton, McCourty, Matthews, Hill), but we’ll also need a few rookies to step up and fill some holes. While the draft is always going to be something that you’d build the future around, it’s my opinion that we’ll have to hope for more production than we’d usually expect from some of the new additions. Of course, guys like Rivers and Garcia are a part of that group, too. There will be injuries as usual, so having better depth is a must.

 

[oceansizer]

Considering Rivers as a potential contributor do not forget about Trey Flowers who is going to test the market next year. I hardly believe we have enough money ammo to keep Flowers and Mason. If Flowers leaves the organisation we are in trouble with a pass rush again. Even if Rivers will take over some Flowers duties and Claiborn will play opposite that is not enough. I think some DE taken in this draft for example Hubbard should be a contributor immediately. I am also an adherer of bolstering safety position. Playing "nickel base" defense makes a safety a key part of it. Assuming how many snaps our safeties played last season and potential injuries we strongly need help.

 

[mgteich]

I agree.

However, when I use the term "come back yet", I use that term to refer to Hightower, Edelman, Valentine, J Jones, and even Mitchell. We expect them to come back to their previous top form, or a bit lower.

I consider last year's injured rookies to be "hopes" and in many ways BEHIND this year's rookies. It is extremely difficult for a rookie to lose his rookie year to injury and be solid contributors. The list of patriots that have done so is extremely small.

After the discussions over the years, I suppose that being out for illness is a bit different (Cannon and now Garcia).

As an aside, Rivers is likely to be given a 3rd year to prove himself, even if he doesn't do much this year.
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If we really thought that Rivers (and/or Langi and.or Davis) will be a solid contributors on the 2018 team, then the front seven wouldn't be the high priority that we think it is.

I don't think that Rivers has been forgotten, he simply hasn't "come back" yet.

All we've seen so far is how the coaches used him in a couple pre-season games and how he performed in those limited assignments. We really don't know how the coaches evaluated those performances or how they'd have used him over the course of the regular season, if he hadn't gotten injured.

While his experience in last summer's OTAs and last year's Camp hypothetically give him an advantage over 2018 rookies, Rivers pretty much needs to prove himself all over again.

 

[mgteich]

I guess it's fine to state all the needs that we are, and all the players that must perform in order for us to win the SB. We should look to improve at every position.

However, those who put their money behind their analysis (not like us), believe that the patriots are more likely to win the SB than any other team.

So, while are needs are great, they are less than all the other teams.

I think that’s slightly optimistic, although I agree with most of what you say. In my opinion, the way the team looks right now on 4/9 is that they’re lined up for another division title and playoff run, possibly even another AFCCG appearance—which is saying a lot when you really think about it.

In order for them to not only get back to the SB and win it again, I think we’ll not only need most of the new additions to look good (Clayborn, Shelton, McCourty, Matthews, Hill), but we’ll also need a few rookies to step up and fill some holes. While the draft is always going to be something that you’d build the future around, it’s my opinion that we’ll have to hope for more production than we’d usually expect from some of the new additions. Of course, guys like Rivers and Garcia are a part of that group, too. There will be injuries as usual, so having better depth is a must.

 

[Hyped]

Speaking of our safeties. What if one of our trio is injured? Aren't t we in deep s*** then?

Eric Reid is still out there.....hmmm....not to mention the draft...

 

[Hyped]

Personally I think Cannon is the LT, but in reality my guess is as good as yours.

As to the LB's, with the Shelton signing I'm thinking that we might see a little more 3-4 this season in the mix. We finally have 3-4 DE's available in Brown, Guy, and Wise (to a lesser degree) to run it well. If that's so, then the LB's are going to get more snaps. Guys like Rivers and all the speed LB's that have been linked to the Pats (Evans, Esch, etc) would all benefit from playing in a 3-4 set. So I can see a high draft pick LB making a "contribution" in a defensive rotation this season, but none that will make an "impact".


Same goes for CB, S, and Edge rusher. In those positions, there COULD be contributors coming from the first 4 picks, but again no impact player.

I'm curious about your Thuney comment. Were you less than pleased with his performance this year? Again, I don't see an offensive lineman within our reach that be a starter this season. jmho.

With the Hill signing and Burkhead Gillislee and White returning, I don't see a rookie RB contributing much unless there are a slew of injuries at the position. Unfortunately RB IS a position where a rookie can come in an make an impact early.

Every year this team schemes its way to 40+ sacks and a reasonable amount of pressure. It would be nice to find a guy who simply can beat his guy one on one and demands double teams. They CAN be found where the Pats are picking in the first 2 rounds but none will be the "sure thing" that can be found in the top 10 picks of the draft. Anyone we get will have holes in their game, or be coming off an injury, or some other flaw that will make them a risk. I guess you can only hope to find that diamond in the rough like TFlowers. Unfortunately EVERY team in the league is looking for that guy.

I thought Thuney struggled a bit in 2017 with pass blocking at times.

Cannon at LT could work with Waddle on the other side, hmmm...

 

[supafly]

However, those who put their money behind their analysis (not like us), believe that the patriots are more likely to win the SB than any other team.

You’re going to play the “we’re favored to win the SB card?” Really? Hasn’t that been the case in just about every year from 2004, forward?

 

[mgteich]

You’re going to play the “we’re favored to win the SB card?” Really? Hasn’t that been the case in just about every year from 2004, forward?

and we've been the most likely to win in almost every year

It's a matter of arithmetic. If we are a 3-1 shot with everyone else no better than say a 5-1 shot, then we are the best , with a 25% chance of winning it all. So, in this example, we would be the best, and would be expected to lose 80% of the time.
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Even if we were an even best to win against the field (never happened I don't think), we still wold be expected to lose 50% of the time.
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Everyone wants us to be a lock to win the SB before the season starts. This will never happen. Last year, we may have been closest. Even at then end, after all that happened, a little better play at CB might have led to victory (by Bademosi, a focused Butler or a healthy J Jones). Even with more than 2 minutes left, the best Qb and best offense in the NFL might have scored the winning drive.
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BUTTOM LINE
So, yeah, I do pull that card. Belichick has not only brought us a competitive team every year. Belichick has often brought us the team most likely to win it all. And we whine that the team isn't good enough, or that Belichick should do better.

 

[supafly]

and we've been the most likely to win in almost every year

It's a matter of arithmetic. If we are a 3-1 shot with everyone else no better than say a 5-1 shot, then we are the best , with a 25% chance of winning it all. So, in this example, we would be the best, and would be expected to lose 80% of the time.
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Even if we were an even best to win against the field (never happened I don't think), we still wold be expected to lose 50% of the time.
============
Everyone wants us to be a lock to win the SB before the season starts. This will never happen. Last year, we may have been closest. Even at then end, after all that happened, a little better play at CB might have led to victory (by Bademosi, a focused Butler or a healthy J Jones). Even with more than 2 minutes left, the best Qb and best offense in the NFL might have scored the winning drive.
====
BUTTOM LINE
So, yeah, I do pull that card. Belichick has not only brought us a competitive team every year. Belichick has often brought us the team most likely to win it all. And we whine that the team isn't good enough, or that Belichick should do better.

But, what does any of this have to do with whether or not the team is currently “looking like a SB winner” without the benefit of the draft?

As a matter of fact, didn’t you recently start a thread taking the complete opposite stance, stating that they appeared to be weaker?

Even if they’re favored every year, we’re still looking at close to an 80% failure rate, if we start at the year that they began to be regular favorites (2004). Being favored doesn’t mean much. We were favored in the last 3 SB losses, and were the odds on favorite to get to the SB in all of the years that they failed to do so. I couldn’t care less about the often incorrect opinion of the general betting public. After all, they are mostly known losers.

 

[mgteich]

But, what does any of this have to do with whether or not the team is currently “looking like a SB winner” without the benefit of the draft?

As a matter of fact, didn’t you recently start a thread taking the complete opposite stance, stating that they appeared to be weaker?

Even if they’re favored every year, we’re still looking at close to an 80% failure rate, if we start at the year that they began to be regular favorites (2004). Being favored doesn’t mean much. We were favored in the last 3 SB losses, and were the odds on favorite to get to the SB in all of the years that they failed to do so. I couldn’t care less about the often incorrect opinion of the general betting public. After all, they are mostly known losers.

No biggie. I'm simply more optimistic than you are. There's nothing wrong with that.

Obviously, we need normal contributions from rookies, and to have only a reasonable quota of injuries.

I thought that the paragraph below was unnecessarily pessimistic. IMHO, we don't anywhere near all of that to be the best team in the AFC, and competitive for a SB.
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In order for them to not only get back to the SB and win it again, I think we’ll not only need most of the new additions to look good (Clayborn, Shelton, McCourty, Matthews, Hill), but we’ll also need a few rookies to step up and fill some holes. While the draft is always going to be something that you’d build the future around, it’s my opinion that we’ll have to hope for more production than we’d usually expect from some of the new additions. Of course, guys like Rivers and Garcia are a part of that group, too. There will be injuries as usual, so having better depth is a must.

 

[supafly]

No biggie. I'm simply more optimistic than you are. There's nothing wrong with that.

Obviously, we need normal contributions from rookies, and to have only a reasonable quota of injuries.

I thought that the paragraph below was unnecessarily pessimistic. IMHO, we don't anywhere near all of that to be the best team in the AFC, and competitive for a SB.
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In order for them to not only get back to the SB and win it again, I think we’ll not only need most of the new additions to look good (Clayborn, Shelton, McCourty, Matthews, Hill), but we’ll also need a few rookies to step up and fill some holes. While the draft is always going to be something that you’d build the future around, it’s my opinion that we’ll have to hope for more production than we’d usually expect from some of the new additions. Of course, guys like Rivers and Garcia are a part of that group, too. There will be injuries as usual, so having better depth is a must.

Well, it seems to be and “either/or” situation as it pertains to the free agent signings or the rookies. If we don’t get some production from guys like Clayborn and McCourty then I think we’d need to make up for some of that from the new additions (including Garcia, Rivers, etc).

I’m not meaning to be overly pessimistic. Our views on the current state of the team prior to the draft aren’t that far apart. I see another AFCCG appearance, where you happen to see a SB winner. I think we can get there, but it’s going to take some production from FAs + rookies.

 

[mgteich]

Well, it seems to be and “either/or” situation as it pertains to the free agent signings or the rookies. If we don’t get some production from guys like Clayborn and McCourty then I think we’d need to make up for some of that from the new additions (including Garcia, Rivers, etc).

I’m not meaning to be overly pessimistic. Our views on the current state of the team prior to the draft aren’t that far apart. I see another AFCCG appearance, where you happen to see a SB winner. I think we can get there, but it’s going to take some production from FAs + rookies.

our views are even closer than that.

I see us as the best team in the AFC, and equal to anyone in the NFC.

Winning the AFC championship and the SB depends on lots of things. The best team doesn't always win it all, nor would we expect that always to happen.

 

[maineman209]

I thought Thuney struggled a bit in 2017 with pass blocking at times.

Cannon at LT could work with Waddle on the other side, hmmm...

OTOH, when Solder got hurt in 2015, Cannon played LT for only two games before swapping ends with Vollmer for the final 8 (?) games of the season. Of course, that's not to say that Cannon wouldn't be the better option at LT now (which might be a bit concerning).

 

[DarrylS]

One of the things I like about the NFL is that they are not reluctant to use top draft picks where there is a need and the player can do the job, compare that to MLB...

Need to remember that Harmon may not be available for about 4 games after his stupid move to try to bring M into Costa Rica... so the Pats are thinner there as well as older there.. My binky, although only a pipe dream, is Minka Fitzpatrick would add to this group.

 

[mgteich]

OTOH, when Solder got hurt in 2015, Cannon played LT for only two games before swapping ends with Vollmer for the final 8 (?) games of the season. Of course, that's not to say that Cannon wouldn't be the better option at LT now (which might be a bit concerning).

We speak of the miracle of Scar and his teaching. Cannon is one of his start pupils. Perhaps Cannon can be better at LT this year than in 2015, especially if that is the plan from Day One.

If Cannon is considered to be reasonable option at LT, I would suspect that we are OK at RT with Waddle and Tobin as the backup.