Trading Into 2019

[stcjones]

There is a lot of good give & take in this thread. Nice.
Any theory that features the Patriots packaging 3 or more picks for one player
(even a QB) is dead on arrival.

I’m just concerned that they get another elite CAT in here.....we need one that can sprint, cut, backpedal, jump sky high, flip and land on its feet.....not just another cat that is simply going to overflow the kitty litter box with crap....

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Yep, I just suggested something similar in another thread. Those two additional third round comp picks could give us some nice flexibility when added to anything that may be added. We could see two years of quality high round options.

I wish someone would ask max kellerman about last years claims that trading some picks away for players (and ealy was really just trading down like 10 spots) was bb gearing up for one last run in 2017 w brady.

We are set up nicely to have the next few drafts pretty loaded with high picks and at the same time we should field brady a strong contender for his last few years. We may be a couple players away (t, lb, de) and may already be there if we really have something with some of the unknowns in rivers /garcia/croston.

 

[aluminum seats]

Doesn't really fit here I guess, but I was just thinking about how Mike Ditka traded his entire draft for a running back. Eight picks, including two first rounders, for one player. He moved from 12 to 5. It's amazing he wasn't shot.

 

[maineman209]

Doesn't really fit here I guess, but I was just thinking about how Mike Ditka traded his entire draft for a running back. Eight picks, including two first rounders, for one player. He moved from 12 to 5. It's amazing he wasn't shot.

I think he might've been high, though.

 

[Off The Grid]

I see two positions where this may be important: LT and QB.

If we believe that the current prospects aren't worthy, and perhaps that we have other less expensive solutions, then perhaps we should trade 2 of our top 63 picks for 2019 first so that we will have the ammunition to address these positions next year if we need to.

Under this scenario, we'd see if we have a starting LT in Garcia (or perhaps someone else), and whether one of flyers on a QB has paid off.

If one can get the standard deal ~ which is usually a 50% Discount on their Pick, based on the way such Trades've been negotiated, historically ~ then one should do so almost regardless of circumstances. The deprecation of the Time Value of a Deferred Draft Pick is highly subjective. In EarthSpeak: If some braying JackAss wants to discount next year's Draft Pick by about 50%, based on Book Value, because he lacks patience, because he's developed a ManCrush on some Prospect, or fears for'is job, fleece'm!!

 

[Off The Grid]

If we could find a team willing to deal a 2nd and future 1 for either 23 or 31 id do it in a heartbeat.

That's probably doable on value, for a playoff team.

If its a playoff team wouldn't be worth trading 23 maybe 31

But he's right. His description of that theoretical Trades echoes what we did with the Ravens, back in 2003, when we traded them #19 for #41 and their 2004 1st Rounder.

In case anyone's wondering or rusty on that one: Leaving peripherals aside, we basically traded the Ravens Kyle Boller in return for Vince Wilfork and Eugene Wilson.

*As lovely as the idea sounds, a non-playoff team'd have to be incredibly stupid to trade, say, #42 and next year's 1st Rounder ~ approximately #10 in the Draft, right? ~ for #31.

It's gotta be worth the other Team's while.

 

[Off The Grid]

Trade number 23,43 and a first rounder in 2019 and some other picks to get the number 2 overall pick.

This is a joke, right? Or you thought you were in a Jets forum?

 

[Huckleberry1]

You have to see who is available when they are picking. No one thought Vince Wilfork would be around at #21. The other consideration is how the Patriots have evaluated the two drafts. As things stand I would rather see them stand pat and take the picks. They have many needs and I want the players in the program now so they can start addressing them. If they don’t like the player’s available then I’m fine with pushing the picks back a year.

 

[Love The Drake]

Im warming up to Baker Mayfield or Mason Rudolph.

 

[Off The Grid]

Doesn't really fit here I guess, but I was just thinking about how Mike Ditka traded his entire draft for a running back. Eight picks, including two first rounders, for one player. He moved from 12 to 5. It's amazing he wasn't shot.

What an @$$Hole. That was the year'f idiotic HalfBack Trades. Before Ditka destroyed his own team for a HalfBack ~ Ricky Williams, for those who weren't around, then ~ the Colts gave away Marshall Faulk to the Rams for a 2nd Rounder and change.

Sure, they drafted Edgerrin James and got 2 tremendous years out'f'm before running'm into the ground, after which he was good but never again great...but why bother with spending the #4 Pick on James if you've already got Marshall freaking Faulk???

They could've spent that Pick on Torry Holt.

And then the Colts would've had Peyton Manning, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, and Marvin Harrison!! Thank God for the stupidity of our Enemies!!

 

[mgteich]

When you consider how much of an improvement the #1 QB and #1 RB (particularly Barkley) could make for CLE, I don’t think they’d take anything but a king’s ransom of draft picks. Then again, they are the Browns, so who knows?

If CLE gets their QB, the issue is Barklay. If the patriots were there and had pick our QB at 1, I'm not sure that we would think that nay RB is worth the 4th pick in the draft. If it were us, we would take Chubb or move down.

 

[aluminum seats]

What an @$$Hole. That was the year'f idiotic HalfBack Trades. Before Ditka destroyed his own team for a HalfBack ~ Ricky Williams, for those who weren't around, then ~ the Colts gave away Marshall Faulk to Rams for a 2nd Rounder and change.

Sure, they drafted Edgerrin James and got 2 tremendous years out'f'm before running'm into the ground, after which he was good but never again great...but why bother with spending the #4 Pick on James if you've already got Marshall freaking Faulk???

They could've spent that Pick on Torry Holt.

And then the Colts would've had Peyton Manning, Marshall Faulk, Torry Holt, and Marvin Harrison!! Thank God for the stupidity of our Enemies!!

Their stupidity helps for sure..Ditka gave all his picks to Snyder, who gave them away to somebody else. It's the circle of life/stupidity.

 

[patfanken]

I remember reading once that the the draft grades for prospects from 20-50 are generally the same, which is why BB rarely gets caught up in the whole "first rounder" thing.

It seems once you get past the 7-10 elite position players and the top QB prospects the next group of prospects are pretty much the same (athletically) well into the second round. For example it hurt that the Niners did so well at the end of the season which moved our pick down 8 or so picks. But for BB it doesn't matter much since the same value will be there whether its the 34 or 42.

That's why I can see BB trading the 31st pick for something in the 40's plus a pick that fills the gap we have in the 4th and fith rounds because he is thinking that all he is giving up at that point is 5th year of control.

My ONLY concern in adding more picks this year is having too many picks and not enough open slots on a team that, as it it currently stands would be a serious superbowl contender. Right now the Pats have 4 quality picks where they hopefully will add 3 to 4 future starters on a team that needs to start to develop a new generation of "core players" to this roster.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

If a QB is drafted, he does not have to be ready to play on day 1.
Tom Brady will be in town for 1-3 more years.

And that is the way it used to be and accounted for a great deal of success. Think of Brady who sat for a year, Aaron Rodgers as a recent example and Jimmy G. * ( * TBD but initial returns look good) as guys who sat and learned.
In contrast, Troy Aikman and Peyton were thrown in on day 1 for OJT training and despite 1-15 and 3-13 years respectively turned in HOF careers. There are plenty of other guys who were not as successful when thrown in as rookies...e.g. David Carr
If I'm a QB, I would love to be drafted by the Pats as the 'heir apparent" to sit learn, get well coached, pick the brain of TFB and know that in a few years......the keys to the kingdom could be yours if they play their cards right... All they have to do is look at Garrapollo's contract... Get the QB signed for 4 years and if Brady plays 2-3 years the timing is right for the Pats to avoid another Jimmy G situation and it could be a smooth transition.....

 

[Off The Grid]

I remember reading once that the the draft grades for prospects from 20-50 are generally the same, which is why BB rarely gets caught up in the whole "first rounder" thing.

Very good point.

Having become consumed by this process several years ago, I'ave noted with bemusement that I'ave often perceived enormous "Air Pockets", as I like to call'm, between as outrageously sprawling a range as 10-70 or more!! Yeah. Mind you: At #11, there'll generally remain a number of Prospects that I value as high as #11 or more...but who certainly have little risk of being drafted before #70 or later, hence the "Air Pocket."

 

[SammyBlueCat]

There is a lot of good give & take in this thread. Nice.
Any theory that features the Patriots packaging 3 or more picks for one player
(even a QB) is dead on arrival.

mgteich care to expand on what exactly you disagree with? When has Bill Bellichick done something like this???

 

[SammyBlueCat]

If Belichick didn’t move up six spots from 17 to 11 the year JJ Watt was taken (when we also had 28, 33, 56, 73, and 74—good lord), he sure as hell isn't going to give up a bunch of high picks for one player. No way.

We had 2 firsts, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds that year, and I’m sure Belichick appreciated a lot of things about JJ Watt and his projected NFL future—and that was only six spots.

Now, they may certainly give up one of those higher picks if the right guy is there, but this talk of mortgaging the future by giving up 3-4 high picks is ridiculous.

BINGO!

 

[mgteich]

mgteich care to expand on what exactly you disagree with? When has Bill Bellichick done something like this???

The issue isn't packaging. The issue is preferring high quality picks rather than players at 23 or 31 who are about the same as 10-20 place lower. Belichick has moved up about as often as he has moved down.

McGinist was picked at 4, Seymour at 6. I believe that Belichik has moved up in the first for several other players.

The point is not the number of picks. After all, we might trade 2-3 picks to move up to 10 and get 2 back in the 4th and 5th.
==
As Ken says, the issue is getting a quality stud, or moving down into the sweet spot, which is slightly different in each draft, partly depending on position, but likely goes through pick 43.

So, for me, I think it reasonable to use 23 and 31 to move (with or without another pick, and picks coming back). It is also reasonable to trade down and trade the other into 2019. Finally, it s just possible that a player we want in available at 23 or 31 with few of the same value and position a bit later, in which case we;d make the pick.

 

[mgteich]

I think that we agree. The question is whether there is a elite position player worth trading up for. If I add your 7-10 to the 5 quarterbacks, I get 12-15 elite players. As you say, if we don't get one of these, trading down and/or into 2019 may be right.

I remember reading once that the the draft grades for prospects from 20-50 are generally the same, which is why BB rarely gets caught up in the whole "first rounder" thing.

It seems once you get past the 7-10 elite position players and the top QB prospects the next group of prospects are pretty much the same (athletically) well into the second round. For example it hurt that the Niners did so well at the end of the season which moved our pick down 8 or so picks. But for BB it doesn't matter much since the same value will be there whether its the 34 or 42.

That's why I can see BB trading the 31st pick for something in the 40's plus a pick that fills the gap we have in the 4th and fith rounds because he is thinking that all he is giving up at that point is 5th year of control.

My ONLY concern in adding more picks this year is having too many picks and not enough open slots on a team that, as it it currently stands would be a serious superbowl contender. Right now the Pats have 4 quality picks where they hopefully will add 3 to 4 future starters on a team that needs to start to develop a new generation of "core players" to this roster.

 

[Boomer B]

If Mayfield makes it past Buffalo at 12 do we jump ahead of Arizona at 15 to get him? Would GB at 14 take 23 and 43?