Trading Into 2019

[FoxboroFlyer]

Trade involving the top five picks often break away from the draft value chart by quite a bit (it's really the only section of the draft in which it does break down regularly by a significant margin). However, that's changed a bit over time.

Before the new CBA and rookie wage scale, teams drafting in the top five often didn't want to be there and have to deal with the rookie salary negotiations. So, they'd trade out at a sometimes substantial discount - 25%-30% in a couple of instances. Even so, there were plenty on instances in which a team holding a top-3 pick committed highway robbery and received up to a 30% premium.

Since the rookie wage scale has been in place, the "giveaways" have pretty much disappeared, especially when the circumstance of a particular draft have provided the high-pick holder with substantial leverage - the kind of leverage that the Giants have now with the #2. If they'll be happy with taking a QB later and feel they can acquire a high-value player at one position of need or another as long as they remain in the top-10 or even-top-15 after a trade, they'll be able to get every point that the chart shows for the #2 and possibly a bit more, because it won't matter to them if they end up "having to" pick at #2. It seems to me that about the only way they'd accept a "point discount" is if they're receiving five relatively early picks in exchange - or - as with any likely Buffalo offer - a pick in the top-15 plus another first (and more) that they can trade down for more picks in 2018 or even into the 2019 draft.

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As an example from this year's draft, the Jets acquired the #3 from IND (2200 points) in exchange for the #6 (1600) + both their 2nd-rounders, #37 (530) & #49 (410) ... a total of 2540 trade for a pick charted at 2200 ... they paid a 15.5% premium above chart values to move up 3 spots.

No one is giving the Patriots any sort of discount to move up. Bank on that. If anything they're gonna have to pay more. That's the reason I'm fairly confident we need not worry about these trade up to top 5 rumors. Bill will not be bent over.

 

[mgteich]

It is NOT at all clear to be why CLE wouldn't prefer 3 top picks for the 4th pick, 3 top picks that match the book value of the pick. We have a conspiracy theory on this board. We think that everybody hates us.

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

It is NOT at all clear to be why CLE wouldn't prefer 3 top picks for the 4th pick, 3 top picks that match the book value of the pick. We have a conspiracy theory on this board. We think that everybody hates us.

You may have your own conspiracy that everyone doesn't hate us...they do. I'm simply saying it's gonna take the MINIMUM of the JJ points system for the Pats to go up that high for a QB. You believe what you will though. Cleveland is freaking swimming in picks! They have no incentive to discount them.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

. We have a conspiracy theory on this board. We think that everybody hates us.

Get outside New England and you'll find out...that they do!!!!!

 

[mgteich]

Get outside New England and you'll find out...that they do!!!!!

The NFL is a business. Whether Cleveland fans dislike the patriots matters not at all to the owners and GM of the CLE NFL franchise.

 

[mgteich]

Now that argument makes sense. However, it depends on how much value CLE believes they get with Chubb or Barklay compared to 3 players.

Cleveland is freaking swimming in picks! They have no incentive to discount them.

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

Now that argument makes sense. However, it depends on how much value CLE believes they get with Chubb or Barklay compared to 3 players.

IMO those players you mentioned are the best at their positions by a large margin...so it would make absolutely no sense for them to pass on them to collect more picks when they already have a ton of them. Just my opinion.

 

[mgteich]

IMO those players you mentioned are the best at their positions by a large margin...so it would make absolutely no sense for them to pass on them to collect more picks when they already have a ton of them. Just my opinion.

I agree. I just can't guess what CLE would do.

In fact, in another thread, this one too perhaps, I suggested that the patriots realistically may be considering trading up somewhere between 9 and 15, after the 4 quarterbacks, Barclay and Chubb and perhaps the 2 top safeties are gone. I probably should add the Guard who should also be in top 9.

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

I agree. I just can't guess what CLE would do.

In fact, in another thread, this one too perhaps, I suggested that the patriots realistically may be considering trading up somewhere between 9 and 15, after the 4 quarterbacks, Barclay and Chubb and perhaps the 2 top safeties are gone. I probably should add the Guard who should also be in top 9.

You think they'd go up to #9-#15 for Jackson? I hope that's not the plan.

 

[mgteich]

You think they'd go up to #9-#15 for Jackson? I hope that's not the plan.

I don't know. As I have said, I'm not sure that Jackson is the right guy.

If garcia isn't expected to be our starter next year, we might move up for McGlinchey.

 

[FoxboroFlyer]

I don't know. As I have said, I'm not sure that Jackson is the right guy.

If garcia isn't expected to be our starter next year, we might move up for McGlinchey.

I really hope we don't move up to over draft a player at a position of "need". If you're going up that high it should be for the BPA imo, Minkah Fitzpatrick. Even though I know that's never gonna happen.

 

[Deus Irae]

I really hope we don't move up to over draft a player at a position of "need". If you're going up that high it should be for the BPA imo, Minkah Fitzpatrick. Even though I know that's never gonna happen.

Need + Talent + Positional value + Positional draft value + Draft depth at position + Overall draft depth = Value

Gotta figure LT is pretty high value for this draft, if there's one they like.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

The NFL is a business. Whether Cleveland fans dislike the patriots matters not at all to the owners and GM of the CLE NFL franchise.

You're moving the goalposts. You posted that Pats fans believe there is a conspiracy to hate us. Look around, Denver basketball uses Brady's picture to elicit boos.......Other teams and their owners believe the only way BB and Brady could have success is through cheating and do whatever they can to push Goodell to punish the team.. It is';t paranoia if someone really is out to get you... 31 owners are jealous of NE and push the commissioner to do what their teams cant do on the playing field....... I left Boston at age 18 and have lived in NY State and Philly since then.. I have a sense of multiple fan bases.. I have been pelted by Jets fan for wearing a Troy Brown jersey at the Meadowlands and attended Pats games in multiple cities.......
They pity teams like TB and Cleveland... They hate NE.........

 

[mgteich]

this is no different than the attitude of boston fans toward NY teams, especially before the red sox had won a world series

You're moving the goalposts. You posted that Pats fans believe there is a conspiracy to hate us. Look around, Denver basketball uses Brady's picture to elicit boos.......Other teams and their owners believe the only way BB and Brady could have success is through cheating and do whatever they can to push Goodell to punish the team.. It is';t paranoia if someone really is out to get you... 31 owners are jealous of NE and push the commissioner to do what their teams cant do on the playing field....... I left Boston at age 18 and have lived in NY State and Philly since then.. I have a sense of multiple fan bases.. I have been pelted by Jets fan for wearing a Troy Brown jersey at the Meadowlands and attended Pats games in multiple cities.......
They pity teams like TB and Cleveland... They hate NE.........

 

[SammyBlueCat]

There is a lot of good give & take in this thread. Nice.
Any theory that features the Patriots packaging 3 or more picks for one player
(even a QB) is dead on arrival.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

If a QB is drafted, he does not have to be ready to play on day 1.
Tom Brady will be in town for 1-3 more years.

 

[supafly]

Now that argument makes sense. However, it depends on how much value CLE believes they get with Chubb or Barklay compared to 3 players.

When you consider how much of an improvement the #1 QB and #1 RB (particularly Barkley) could make for CLE, I don’t think they’d take anything but a king’s ransom of draft picks. Then again, they are the Browns, so who knows?

 

[supafly]

There is a lot of good give & take in this thread. Nice.
Any theory that features the Patriots packaging 3 or more picks for one player
(even a QB) is dead on arrival.

If Belichick didn’t move up six spots from 17 to 11 the year JJ Watt was taken (when we also had 28, 33, 56, 73, and 74—good lord), he sure as hell isn't going to give up a bunch of high picks for one player. No way.

We had 2 firsts, 2 seconds, and 2 thirds that year, and I’m sure Belichick appreciated a lot of things about JJ Watt and his projected NFL future—and that was only six spots.

Now, they may certainly give up one of those higher picks if the right guy is there, but this talk of mortgaging the future by giving up 3-4 high picks is ridiculous.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

Bb has alot of flexibility here. One easy trade i can see is trading a first to a lesser team for their 2019 1st and a mid rounder this year. We could easily end up with a top 15 pick next year in that scenario and still have plenty of high quality pick opportunities this year.

But it all depends on whos there. Im thinking he really didn’t like last years class as he gave up a 1st for a position that wasn’t really a great need. For all we know maybe he’ll have guys there at almost every draft slot and we wont see any major trades.

 

[supafly]

Bb has alot of flexibility here. One easy trade i can see is trading a first to a lesser team for their 2019 1st and a mid rounder this year. We could easily end up with a top 15 pick next year in that scenario and still have plenty of high quality pick opportunities this year.

But it all depends on whos there. Im thinking he really didn’t like last years class as he gave up a 1st for a position that wasn’t really a great need. For all we know maybe he’ll have guys there at almost every draft slot and we wont see any major trades.

Yep, I just suggested something similar in another thread. Those two additional third round comp picks could give us some nice flexibility when combined with anything else that may be added. We could see two years of quality high round options.