Mike Evans gets BIG Deal

[maineman209]

$55m of it guaranteed smdh, there goes the WR market

That's what folks said when Julio Jones got $35.5M guaranteed in 2015, and when Hopkins got $36.5M last spring.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Cap inflation + positional inflation.

Oh, I get that. I just don't think he's worth that investment. Antonio Brown, maybe. Julio Jones, maybe. But Evans? His stats are inflated by volume -- Jameis locks on to him a lot -- and I don't see transcendent ability. He's good, but not the kind of player to push a team over the edge. In fact, I don't think any WR really is, but that's a different matter altogether.

 

[Love The Drake]

If Cooks wants that I will drive him to Chicago myself.

 

[Love The Drake]

The Landry contract subtract 3 mill each season would be the kind of contract Cooks gets on the open market.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Hmmm.

 

[JMC00]

Belichick has also never paid a WR anywhere near top of the market money for more than one year, which he did on 2 separate occasions. Those 2 players were Moss & Welker, both of whom were gone the following year. Make of that what you will but I wouldn't discount it.

Moss was 33 years old and pushed his way out of town and had clearly gone off the cliff.

Welker was 32 and it was a simple "year sooner, than a year later" Which Bill went with the younger Amendola and to bring back Edelman. A move that was 100% the correct move as Amendola and Edelman were huge factors in winning 2 rings.

Brandin Cooks is entering his prime and will be only 25 this season.

So Cooks' situation is nothing compared to Moss & Welker

Which btw Moss cost a 4th rounder that the Pats had gotten from the 49ers the day before and Welker cost a 2nd & 7th.

Cooks a 1st round pick which means Belichick passed on taking a player that he would have under control for at least 5 years.

Again Cooks situation nothing like Moss or Welker.

And? I can give you 82.5m reason why the original poster had a point. BB has never paid top of market to a WR long term. He will just bring in another guy, some scrap heap cast off no one wants.

Man, that's a chitload of money. Crazy. Wonder where that puts them, cap-wize?

Has Cooks come out and said he wants that kind of money to stay in NE? No. So the OP doesn't have a point that what Mike Evans signed for today has any effect on Cooks/Pats.

That's like saying Garoppolo's deal and whatever Cousin's gets is suddenly gonna make Brady decide he wants a top QB contract/

 

[Jangles]

As a guy that had Mike Evans on his fantasy team I can tell you he should have got the vet minimum

 

[maineman209]

Aside from the big guarantee, I’m not seeing how this is exactly “setting the market?”

Brown—17m
Hopkins—16+m
Landry—16.2m franchise tag
Evans—16+m

Setting the market for Cooks. And "it" may not be a much about APY as it is about the guaranteed money.

A sampling of "high-end WR contracts, sorted by year signed, with the total of the 3 seasons of production just prior to the new contract:

2015:
TY Hilton (age 26) - end of 2014 season:
214/360 (59.4%) .. 3289 yds (15.4 ypc) .. 19TD
... $13.0M APY ... $11M gtd

Julio Jones (age 26) - end of 2014 season:
224/350 (64%) .. 3371 yds (15.0 ypc) .. 18 TD
... $14.25 APY ... $35.5M gtd

AJ Green (age 27) - end of 2014 season:
264/459 (57.5%) .. 3817 yds (14.5 ypc) .. 28TD
... $15.0M APY ... $26.75M gtd
_____________________
2017:
DeAndre Hopkins (age 25) - end of 2016 season:
265/470 (56.4%) .. 3685 yds (13.9 ypc) .. 21 TDs
... $16.2M APY ... $36.5M gtd

Antonio Brown (age 28) - end of 2016 season:
371/528 (70.2%) ... 4816 yds (13.0 ypc) ... 35 TDs
... $17.0M APY ... $68M gtd
__________________
2018:
Adams (age 25) - end of 2017 season
199/332 (59.9%) ... 2365 yds (11.9 ypc) ... 23 TDs
... $14.5M APY ... $18M gtd

Jeffrey (age 28) - end of 2017 season
163/308 (52.9%) ... 2417 yds (14.8 ypc) ... 15 TDs
... $13.0M APY ... $13.3M gtd

Mike Evans (age 24) - 2015-2017:
214/457 (52.7%) .. 3528 yds (16.5 ypc) .. 20 TDs
... $16.5M APY ... $55M gtd
_________________________

Note that Davante Adams has a higher APY on his 2017 deal than Julio Jones got in 2015 (for lower overall production than Jones), but Adams also got about half as much guaranteed.
----------
Here's basically the same list (with a couple more players who will be getting second contracts soon) , using the 3-year production averages, and sorted by average yards per season (descending order):

Brown (28) 2014-2016, $17.0M/$19M gtd
... 124r .. 1,605y .. 11.7 TDs .. 70% .. 13.0 ypc

*** OBJ (25) 2014-2016 (*IR'd in 2017) _____?
... 96r .. 1,374y .. 11.7 TDs .. 63.0% .. 14.3 ypc

Green (27) 2012-2014, $15.0M/$26.75M gtd:
... 88r .. 1,272y .. 9.3 TDs .. 57.5% .. 14.5 ypc

Hopkins (25) 2014-2016, $16.2M/$36.5M gtd:
... 88r .. 1,228y .. 7.0 TDs .. 56.4% .. 13.9 ypc

Evans (24) 2015-2017, $16.5M/$55M gtd:
... 71r .. 1,176y .. 6.7 TDs .. 52.7% .. 14.1 ypc

*** Cooks (25) 2015-2017 _____?
... 76r .. 1,131y .. 8.0 TDs .. 63.0% .. 14.9 ypc

Julio Jones (26) 2012-2014, $14.25M/$35.5M gtd:
... 75r .. 1,124y .. 6.0 TDs .. 64.0% .. 15.0 ypc

Hilton (26) 2012-2014, $13.0M:
... 71r .. 1,096y .. 6.3 TDs .. 59.4% .. 15.4 ypc

*** Landry (25) 2015-2017 _____?
... 105r .. 1,093y .. 5.7 TDs .. 69.0% .. 7.2 ypc

*** Cooks (24) - 2017 ONLY _____?
... 65r .. 1,082y .. 7.0 TDs .. 57.0% .. 16.6 ypc

*** Robinson (24) 2014-2016 (*IR'd in 2017) _____?
... 67r .. 943y .. 7.3 TDs .. 52.5% .. 14.1 ypc

Jeffrey (28) 2015-2017, $13.0M:
... 54r .. 806y .. 5.0 TDs .. 52.9% .. 14.8 ypc

Adams (25) 2015-2017, $14.5M:
... 66r .. 788y .. 7.7 TDs .. 59.9% .. 11.9 ypc

*** Watkins (24) 2015-2017 _____?
... 42r .. 690y .. 6.3 TDs .. 58.3% .. 16.3 ypc

*To be fair to OBJ and Robinson, who were IR'd in 2017, I used their 2014-2016 averages.

 

[maust]

That's what folks said when Julio Jones got $35.5M guaranteed in 2015, and when Hopkins got $36.5M last spring.

 

[maineman209]

Ruh-roh!

 

[maust]

Ruh-roh!

Got a loaded diaper here and I'm not afraid to use it

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

If they had a good QB i could see him being worth that....but the don't...and he drops everything

 

[maineman209]

Got a loaded diaper here and I'm not afraid to use it

Isn't that tantamount to going the Full Stevenson?

 

[maust]

Isn't that tantamount to going the Full Stevenson?

The Full Stevenson would mean using it on everyone.

GET IT?!!

 

[supafly]

Hmmm.

Hmmm, is right. How could they come to that conclusion based on the statistical comparison?

 

[luuked]

Belichick has also never paid a WR anywhere near top of the market money for more than one year, which he did on 2 separate occasions. Those 2 players were Moss & Welker, both of whom were gone the following year. Make of that what you will but I wouldn't discount it.

I thought after last years shocking huge deal for Gilmore we have become more careful about using "BB never paid position xyz big money" take.

Before Gilmore our CBs were mostly bargain contracts. But guess what.. the salary cap now is on its way to be 200m in a few years. No point in predicting something based on history if one of the key variables is changing.

If top receivers will soon get 20m contracts then 14-15m is not overpaying.

 

[maineman209]

The Full Stevenson would mean using it on everyone.

GET IT?!!

So, more like a poop-bomb than a poop-bullet? Yes, I can see that now.

 

[Bill Lee]

Cap inflation + positional inflation.

Cap inflation + positional inflation + He's a promising young player with 4 straight 1,000 yard seasons

Oh, I get that. I just don't think he's worth that investment. Antonio Brown, maybe. Julio Jones, maybe. But Evans? His stats are inflated by volume -- Jameis locks on to him a lot -- and I don't see transcendent ability. He's good, but not the kind of player to push a team over the edge. In fact, I don't think any WR really is, but that's a different matter altogether.

From TB's point of view, the thing is you can't get AB or JJ but you can get Evans. Yes, they're setting the market for a lesser player, but there aren't any great WRs on the free agency list and they can fit him onto the cap, so it's a done deal.