What Might Get Done In Ten Days (before the season starts)

[maineman209]

Re-sign Solder And Waddle, let Fleming walk.

Fleming is just as capable, far less injury-prone and more versatile.

Release Gillislee, re-sign Burkhead. Let Lewis test the market but try to bring him back. Draft a RB in the first 3 rounds.

No guarantee whatsoever that the Pats are able to replace Gillislee's success rate/production and pass-pro even with a 2nd-round RB. And that only saves about $1M off the cap.

Re-sign Amendola

Good idea.

Release Bennett and Allen, draft a TE. Let the Gronk saga play out.

Very highly unlikely that the Pats would be able to even come close to replacing Allen or Bennett's blocking abilities with a TE drafted from this class. Allen still has some upside as a receiver. Bennett is old.

Release Alan Branch

Release Shea McClellin- re-sign M. Flowers

Flowers is a definite yes for me. Branch is clearly past his sell-by date. McClellin should retire and immediately register for a CTE study.

Release Jordan Richards

I get that he's the most reviled player on the Pats roster, followed closely by Roberts, but there's nothing significant to be gained by cutting either until their upgrades are under contract (which is far from certain to happen).

 

[p8ryts]

Fleming is just as capable, far less injury-prone and more versatile.

Good Point on Fleming's availability. I've liked Waddle but he is not on the field often enough. Just pay Solder!!

No guarantee whatsoever that the Pats are able to replace Gillislee's success rate/production and pass-pro even with a 2nd-round RB. And that only saves about $1M off the cap.

Good idea.

Yup

Very highly unlikely that the Pats would be able to even come close to replacing Allen or Bennett's blocking abilities with a TE drafted from this class. Allen still has some upside as a receiver. Bennett is old.

Yup


Flowers is a definite yes for me. Branch is clearly past his sell-by date. McClellin should retire and immediately register for a CTE study.

Yup

I get that he's the most reviled player on the Pats roster, followed closely by Roberts, but there's nothing significant to be gained by cutting either until their upgrades are under contract (which is far from certain to happen).

I would rather have Demarius Travis or David Jones from the Practice Squad. I'm actually ok with the rest of the secondary. Not great but good enough if we can improve the DL and LBs.

 

[signbabybrady]

Possible.

Keep Fleming, let Solder and Waddle walk, and count on Croston to make a leap and Garcia to get healthy.

Let Lewis and Burkhead walk. Keep White/Gillislee/Bolden, and backfill with Frank Gore and a couple rookie RBs.

Cut Bennett, extend-restructure Allen, keep Hollister and backfill TE with Will Tye at TE.

Let Amendola walk (or retire) and backfill at WR with the PS guys and a couple new UDFA.

Not pretty, and certainly outrageous to many fans, but could get the job done.

I like your phrasing of not pretty better than me saying drastic. But clearly your seeing my point. Next few weeks will be very interesting to say the least.

 

[BlueThunder]

Always a fun time of the off season..then the draft...grab your popcorn...
At the start of very season there seem to be around 20 or so new faces on the active roster.....
Trying to guess the players not returning is never easy........

 

[maineman209]

That would be a dream..

Think Brady and co would have to reconstruct their contracts.

Maybe turn a lot of it into signing bonuses.. I don't understand the cap like others do, so not sure how we can make them cheaper

Using Allen as a relatively simple extension-restructure example:

CURRENT CONTRACT (age in parentheses):

2018 (28) - salary, $4.5M .. *wkly roster, $500k .. CAP HIT = $5.0M
2019 (29) - salary, $6.9M .. *wkly roster, $500k .. CAP HIT = $7.4M
TOTAL CONTRACT VALUE = $12.4M ... APY (AAV) = $6.2M

At this point, Allen's guaranteed pay for 2018 (from any team) is zero.
* Wkly roster bonus is the play-to-get-paid variety; if he misses a game, the player loses 1/17th of that bonus.

EXTENDED CONTRACT (adds two years):
-- [NOTE: This is a very player-friendly version.]

- Converts $3.5M of his 2018 salary into signing bonus.
- Converts $2M of his 2019 salary into signing bonus, and another $2M into receiving incentive bonuses ($1M/year).
- The maximum contract value for the first two years hasn't changed; it's still $12.4M.
- Allen gets something he doesn't currently have: $5.5M in guaranteed money, + his 2018 and 2019 salaries (if he plays).

2018 (28)
- salary, $1.0M .. SB, $1.375M .. wk-rb, $500k .. CAP HIT = $2.875M
(+ up to $1M in receiving incentives)
2019 (29)
- salary, $2.9M .. SB, $1.375M .. wk-rb, $500k .. CAP HIT = $4.775M
(+ up to $1M in receiving incentives)
2020 (30) .. $2.0M roster bonus due on 5th day of new league year
- salary, $4.0M .. SB, $1.375M .. wk-rb, $500k .. CAP HIT = $7.875M
2021 (31)
- salary, $7.0M .. SB, $1.375M .. wk-rb, $500k .. CAP HIT = $8.875M
TOTAL MAXIMUM CONTRACT VALUE = $22.4M .. APY (AAV) = $6.6M

The last two years of this deal are "funny money". If Allen is cut before the 5th day of the 2020 league year, $14.0M of that $22.4M disappears and the Pats add just $2.75M to dead money against the cap (the final two SB payments).

Meanwhile, the Pats shave $2.125M off the 2018 cap and $2.625M off the 2019 cap, unless Allen achieves his receiving incentives, in which case keeping him will have totally been worth it.

 

[maineman209]

I would rather have Demarius Travis or David Jones from the Practice Squad. I'm actually ok with the rest of the secondary. Not great but good enough if we can improve the DL and LBs.

Why, though? What have they proven over the course of playing in an NFL season that Richards hasn't, or even a 2018 rookie?

 

[maineman209]

I like your phrasing of not pretty better than me saying drastic. But clearly your seeing my point. Next few weeks will be very interesting to say the least.

THIS week will probably get interesting ... real soon.

 

[Jimke]

Why, though? What have they proven over the course of playing in an NFL season that Richards hasn't, or even a 2018 rookie?

All Richards has proven is that he cannot make important tackles. Despite this I suspect
Belichick would extend his contract instead of cutting him.

 

[Snooky97]

Using Allen as a relatively simple extension-restructure example:

CURRENT CONTRACT (age in parentheses):

2018 (28) - salary, $4.5M .. *wkly roster, $500k .. CAP HIT = $5.0M
2019 (29) - salary, $6.9M .. *wkly roster, $500k .. CAP HIT = $7.4M
TOTAL CONTRACT VALUE = $12.4M ... APY (AAV) = $6.2M

At this point, Allen's guaranteed pay for 2018 (from any team) is zero.
* Wkly roster bonus is the play-to-get-paid variety; if he misses a game, the player loses 1/17th of that bonus.

EXTENDED CONTRACT (adds two years):
-- [NOTE: This is a very player-friendly version.]

- Converts $3.5M of his 2018 salary into signing bonus.
- Converts $2M of his 2019 salary into signing bonus, and another $2M into receiving incentive bonuses ($1M/year).
- The maximum contract value for the first two years hasn't changed; it's still $12.4M.
- Allen gets something he doesn't currently have: $5.5M in guaranteed money, + his 2018 and 2019 salaries (if he plays).

2018 (28)
- salary, $1.0M .. SB, $1.375M .. wk-rb, $500k .. CAP HIT = $2.875M
(+ up to $1M in receiving incentives)
2019 (29)
- salary, $2.9M .. SB, $1.375M .. wk-rb, $500k .. CAP HIT = $4.775M
(+ up to $1M in receiving incentives)
2020 (30) .. $2.0M roster bonus due on 5th day of new league year
- salary, $4.0M .. SB, $1.375M .. wk-rb, $500k .. CAP HIT = $7.875M
2021 (31)
- salary, $7.0M .. SB, $1.375M .. wk-rb, $500k .. CAP HIT = $8.875M
TOTAL MAXIMUM CONTRACT VALUE = $22.4M .. APY (AAV) = $6.6M

The last two years of this deal are "funny money". If Allen is cut before the 5th day of the 2020 league year, $14.0M of that $22.4M disappears and the Pats add just $2.75M to dead money against the cap (the final two SB payments).

Meanwhile, the Pats shave $2.125M off the 2018 cap and $2.625M off the 2019 cap, unless Allen achieves his receiving incentives, in which case keeping him will have totally been worth it.

Thank you for this. May send you a PM later as i want to understand it a bit more. Thank you again

 

[maineman209]

All Richards has proven is that he cannot make important tackles. Despite this I suspect
Belichick would extend his contract instead of cutting him.

BB would probably say that every tackle is important. Richards made 27 of them in 2017. How many have either Travis or Jones (or a not-yet-acquired rookie) made in a real NFL game?

 

[mgteich]

Yes, there is an "easy" opportunity to "restructure/extend contracts" with Bennett and Allan. Of course, that does NOT imply reductions in compensation. If the team wants reductions in compensation, then the players will be cut and go into free agency, where the patriots can compete with everyone else for tight ends.

Allen could be easily extended-restructured to reduce his 2018 cap his by $2.5M or more. Bennett could be restructured to save another $3M. McCourty could be extended to save another $4M-$5M. Another Brady extension could save another $7M-$9M.

 

[maineman209]

Thank you for this. May send you a PM later as i want to understand it a bit more. Thank you again

Please keep in mind that it was mostly just off the top of my head. I'm sure Miguel would do a much, much better job.

 

[mgteich]

Thank you for this. May send you a PM later as i want to understand it a bit more. Thank you again

Pm's are fine

However, if you have questions, other might benefit from the answers, so consider asking the questions here.

 

[mgteich]

Most expect Fleming to have a much, much higher price tag. He will likely start somewhere. BECAUSE of his injury history, there should be much less interest in Waddle, at a much lower cost.

Fleming is just as capable, far less injury-prone and more versatile.

 

[Ring 6]

Yes, there is an "easy" opportunity to "restructure/extend contracts" with Bennett and Allan. Of course, that does NOT imply reductions in compensation. If the team wants reductions in compensation, then the players will be cut and go into free agency, where the patriots can compete with everyone else for tight ends.

Bennett can walk if it costs 6 mill to keep him. Why would we want him now on the contract we didn’t want to give him last year after 2 injuries a trip to the ir and an interest in retiring?

 

[mgteich]

I agree with all the numbers. The example illustrates how over $2M can be saved in cap room, even with contract that is a no-brainer for the player to accept. I'm not sure how many here are willing to pay Allan $7M and $3.4M. That's $5.2M a year. We pay the cap over 3 years, as is often the case.

Allan should be more than willing to accept ONLY $7M guaranteed to play this year! (with $3,4M next year, plus incentives in both years).
=============
CASH to ALLAN ($10.4M plus receiving bonuses)

2o18 (cap $2.875)
$7M ($5.5M signing bonus, .5M roster bonus, and $1M salary)

2019 (cap $4.775)
$3.4M ($2.9M salary plus .5M roster bonus)

2020 (cap 2.75M)
$0 under this contract, since the contract would need to negotiated)

Using Allen as a relatively simple extension-restructure example:

CURRENT CONTRACT (age in parentheses):

2018 (28) - salary, $4.5M .. *wkly roster, $500k .. CAP HIT = $5.0M
2019 (29) - salary, $6.9M .. *wkly roster, $500k .. CAP HIT = $7.4M
TOTAL CONTRACT VALUE = $12.4M ... APY (AAV) = $6.2M

At this point, Allen's guaranteed pay for 2018 (from any team) is zero.
* Wkly roster bonus is the play-to-get-paid variety; if he misses a game, the player loses 1/17th of that bonus.

EXTENDED CONTRACT (adds two years):
-- [NOTE: This is a very player-friendly version.]

- Converts $3.5M of his 2018 salary into signing bonus.
- Converts $2M of his 2019 salary into signing bonus, and another $2M into receiving incentive bonuses ($1M/year).
- The maximum contract value for the first two years hasn't changed; it's still $12.4M.
- Allen gets something he doesn't currently have: $5.5M in guaranteed money, + his 2018 and 2019 salaries (if he plays).

2018 (28)
- salary, $1.0M .. SB, $1.375M .. wk-rb, $500k .. CAP HIT = $2.875M
(+ up to $1M in receiving incentives)
2019 (29)
- salary, $2.9M .. SB, $1.375M .. wk-rb, $500k .. CAP HIT = $4.775M
(+ up to $1M in receiving incentives)
2020 (30) .. $2.0M roster bonus due on 5th day of new league year
- salary, $4.0M .. SB, $1.375M .. wk-rb, $500k .. CAP HIT = $7.875M
2021 (31)
- salary, $7.0M .. SB, $1.375M .. wk-rb, $500k .. CAP HIT = $8.875M
TOTAL MAXIMUM CONTRACT VALUE = $22.4M .. APY (AAV) = $6.6M

The last two years of this deal are "funny money". If Allen is cut before the 5th day of the 2020 league year, $14.0M of that $22.4M disappears and the Pats add just $2.75M to dead money against the cap (the final two SB payments).

Meanwhile, the Pats shave $2.125M off the 2018 cap and $2.625M off the 2019 cap, unless Allen achieves his receiving incentives, in which case keeping him will have totally been worth it.

 

[mgteich]

To be complete, you also add $2.75M to the 2020 cap.

Meanwhile, the Pats shave $2.125M off the 2018 cap and $2.625M off the 2019 cap, unless Allen achieves his receiving incentives, in which case keeping him will have totally been worth it.

 

[patsinthesnow]

On Phil Perry/Mayo’s podcast they talked about Croston as the potential swing tackle next year. He was on the roster all season & the only backup OL in the preseason who really didn’t blow chunks.

IMO I dont think we can afford to pay Fleming or Waddle 4-5 million a season on top of Solder.

 

[mgteich]

Last year's supposed offers, and last year's market, are largely irrelevant.

The team has a decision to make. We'll know in 10 days.

I suspect that he and his agent believe that some team will give him $6M in salary and bonus, or even more likely, more than you would give him for 2018 in a new contract.

Bennett can walk if it costs 6 mill to keep him. Why would we want him now on the contract we didn’t want to give him last year after 2 injuries a trip to the ir and an interest in retiring?

 

[Ring 6]

Last year's supposed offers, and last year's market, are largely irrelevant.

Of course they are NOT.
It’s the same player a year older and further injured and contemplating retirement.

The team has a decision to make. We'll know in 10 days.

I suspect that he and his agent believe that some team will give him $6M in salary and bonus, or even more likely, more than you would give him for 2018 in a new contract.

I seriously doubt that.
I think Bennett is either going to play for a cheap contract this year or retire. His value is at its all time low.

I will be very disapponted if belichick wastes 6 million in him.