OT - Celtics to trade #1 overall pick?

[Ras-IR Dowling]

They gave up an awful contract in Oladipo and a young but so far underperforming Sabonis.

A one year rental, but they gave up no draft picks and two boxes of crayons. And it was not the box of 64 with the built-in sharpener.

Exactly. Offloading oladipos contact for 1 year of PG is worth it imo

 

[RobertWeathers]

Sounds like Danny offered multiple 1sts. The only thing that adequately explains what went down is IND just didn't want PG in the East. Either that or they're vastly overrating what they got back.


I agree, I'm glad Danny wasn't able to pull off the desperation move, and am happy with Plan B. Next year's draft is going to be great, and it's going to be pivotal given that the odds of Lebron being on the move are high.

Not sure why people are assuming Danny didn't have some kind of understanding he could sign PG

 

[borg]

Sounds like Danny offered multiple 1sts. The only thing that adequately explains what went down is IND just didn't want PG in the East.

Back half of the 1st round draft picks are essentially worthless. The quality of player is suspect and any impact could be years from now, if at all.
On top of that, the Celts offered players whose contracts expire in 12 months. Instead, Toronto accepted players under control for multiple years with NBA experience. I get Toronto's mindset, especially when compared to the Celtics' package.

 

[patfanken]

Here's what I'm surprised at. What was the urgency for Indy to make a deal RIGHT now. There was absolutely no urgency to make a deal. The Celts made it clear that their plan was to sign Haywood first and THEN go after George.

If the Celts get Haywood then the urgency to add George would only get higher and thus improve Indy's bargaining position. IF the Celts don't get Haywood, then the pressure to get George only grows higher. It's a no lose situation either way for Indy.

Personally I would have given the LA pick, the Grizzly pick AND Crowder and Rozier for George even without an extention. Horford, Haywood, George, Issah, and Tatum, Brown, and an improving Smart, and Bradly would have had a real chance to compete against the best in the league

Instead the Indy GM just panicked and went for the first deal offered. So BOTH the Celtics and Indy lose. Clearly Indy didn't want George in the East. Its the only reason to move so fast.

BTW- The Celts might still be able to get another shot at George IF OKC's season isn't looking good around the trade deadline.

 

[Love The Drake]

That's mortgaging to much for a one year rental I wouldn't take risk that much for a one year shot at the title

 

[RobertWeathers]

Back half of the 1st round draft picks are essentially worthless. The quality of player is suspect and any impact could be years from now, if at all.
On top of that, the Celts offered players whose contracts expire in 12 months. Instead, Toronto accepted players under control for multiple years with NBA experience. I get Toronto's mindset, especially when compared to the Celtics' package.

Back end of the NBA draft is basically the NFL version of a 7th rounder.

 

[rochrist]

Back end of the NBA draft is basically the NFL version of a 7th rounder.

Not really. You get more superstars out of the back half of the 1st round in the NBA then you do the NFL. Off the top of my head, Kawhi Leonard, 15th, Jimmy Butler, 30th, Draymond Green, 35th, Tony Parker, 28th, Manu Ginoblilli /57th!/

 

[BradyFTW!]

Back end of the NBA draft is basically the NFL version of a 7th rounder.

I think it charts more like this:

top-5 pick: first half of first round NFL equivalent
4-10: late first round NFL equivalent
11-14: 2nd round NFL equivalent
High non-lottery pick (15-20): 3rd round NFL equivalent
Late non-lottery pick (20-30): 4th-5th round NFL equivalent
Second round pick: 6th-7th round NFL equivalent

Which is another way of saying that any pick within the top 20 of the NBA draft has a lot of value. In the teens you have a great shot at finding a solid rotational contributor--anything from the 4th to 10th guy in your rotation. Given how rosters are built in the NFL with most contenders having 3 guys taking up a ton of cap space, it becomes basically a necessity to have solid role players playing on cheap contracts, and hitting on late first round picks and any second round picks is a great way to do that.

Plus, with top-20 picks there's a very real possibility of knocking it out of the park and getting a franchise player: Myles Turner (11th in 2015), Devin Booker (13th in 2015), Giannis (15th in 2013), Klay Thompson (11th in 2011), and Kawhi Leonard (15th in 2011) are all either franchise guys or the next tier down.

Once you look at picks 20-30 it gets a little murkier, but there is still a ton of value there if you pick well. I'd liken it to rounds 4-5: the good teams find genuine plus talent there, the solid teams find contributors, and for the ****ty teams it's basically a throwaway because they suck at scouting.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Not really. You get more superstars out of the back half of the 1st round in the NBA then you do the NFL. Off the top of my head, Kawhi Leonard, 15th, Jimmy Butler, 30th, Draymond Green, 35th, Tony Parker, 28th, Manu Ginoblilli /57th!/

90% of players chosen in the NBA draft after #20 do nothing.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I think it charts more like this:

top-5 pick: first half of first round NFL equivalent
4-10: late first round NFL equivalent
11-14: 2nd round NFL equivalent
High non-lottery pick (15-20): 3rd round NFL equivalent
Late non-lottery pick (20-30): 4th-5th round NFL equivalent
Second round pick: 6th-7th round NFL equivalent

Which is another way of saying that any pick within the top 20 of the NBA draft has a lot of value. In the teens you have a great shot at finding a solid rotational contributor--anything from the 4th to 10th guy in your rotation. Given how rosters are built in the NFL with most contenders having 3 guys taking up a ton of cap space, it becomes basically a necessity to have solid role players playing on cheap contracts, and hitting on late first round picks and any second round picks is a great way to do that.

Plus, with top-20 picks there's a very real possibility of knocking it out of the park and getting a franchise player: Myles Turner (11th in 2015), Devin Booker (13th in 2015), Giannis (15th in 2013), Klay Thompson (11th in 2011), and Kawhi Leonard (15th in 2011) are all either franchise guys or the next tier down.

Once you look at picks 20-30 it gets a little murkier, but there is still a ton of value there if you pick well. I'd liken it to rounds 4-5: the good teams find genuine plus talent there, the solid teams find contributors, and for the ****ty teams it's basically a throwaway because they suck at scouting.

Thoughtful post but check out the careers of NBAers picked at #20 or later. It's not good.

 

[Bill Lee]

Not sure why people are assuming Danny didn't have some kind of understanding he could sign PG

Why should we?

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

Here's what I'm surprised at. What was the urgency for Indy to make a deal RIGHT now. There was absolutely no urgency to make a deal. The Celts made it clear that their plan was to sign Haywood first and THEN go after George.

If the Celts get Haywood then the urgency to add George would only get higher and thus improve Indy's bargaining position. IF the Celts don't get Haywood, then the pressure to get George only grows higher. It's a no lose situation either way for Indy.

Personally I would have given the LA pick, the Grizzly pick AND Crowder and Rozier for George even without an extention. Horford, Haywood, George, Issah, and Tatum, Brown, and an improving Smart, and Bradly would have had a real chance to compete against the best in the league

Instead the Indy GM just panicked and went for the first deal offered. So BOTH the Celtics and Indy lose. Clearly Indy didn't want George in the East. Its the only reason to move so fast.

BTW- The Celts might still be able to get another shot at George IF OKC's season isn't looking good around the trade deadline.

Indy has been hearing offers for PG13 For a while now. They didn't want him in Boston. I don't think thats up for debate. Esp with G.H.

That said Its a great deal for OKC and just an awful one for Indy. They gave up close to nothing for a top 10-12 player.

 

[deroc5050]

The problem with the Celtics is that they have a lot of there guys moving towards there next contracts. They need to sign a key player this off season or the cap situation will get ugly and there will be no way to sign any big names.

I have no idea who the Celtics will keep between Bradley, Smart, and Crowder. Then we have to decide what to do with IT's contract.

If we don't land a big name this off season we are basically building our team 3-5 years from now and thats only if we hit on Brown and Tatum.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Why should we?

His track record does not support the assumption he operates as a desperate GM who takes huge risks.

 

[Jackson 2]

The NBA is such an exciting product and it can be entertaining as hell. But, the salary cap provisions, the free agency rules, the need to match contracts/ salaries in trades, etc. create an enormously difficult situation for teams seeking to improve. Combine that with players on opposing teams being chummy chummy with one another and the inclination to form these super teams and the result is a league with a hierarchy that seems immune to change. I admire Danny Ainge's dealing acuman and his wilyness, but I've concluded that the accumulation of prime draft picks is overrated. Teams trading want established players as opposed to draft picks, even high ones, which are basically crap shoots. To me, it's discouraging.

 

[Deus Irae]

The problem with the Celtics is that they have a lot of there guys moving towards there next contracts. They need to sign a key player this off season or the cap situation will get ugly and there will be no way to sign any big names.

I have no idea who the Celtics will keep between Bradley, Smart, and Crowder. Then we have to decide what to do with IT's contract.

If we don't land a big name this off season we are basically building our team 3-5 years from now and thats only if we hit on Brown and Tatum.

If they don't bring in a FA, they're still theoretically set at positions 1-4, and they can afford to keep at least 2 of the Thomas/Bradley/Smart trio. Next year's picks (Brooklyn and Lakers) would be the key for the 5.

It's all premised on the success of the draft picks, but it's set in place.

Thomas/Rozier/Smart at the point
Bradley/Smart/Brown at the 2
Crowder (until it's time to move on)/Brown/Tatum at the 3
Horford/Tatum at the 4
TBD at the 5

Assorted fill ins and the Europeans would be rounding out the squad.

 

[captain insano]

at this point does anybody think the celtics will get hayward? i dont.

 

[VectorPrime]

Danny's entire legacy is hinging on the hope that Brown and Tatum not only hit as good players but as bonafied starts. That's a tough gamble.

 

[borg]

Danny's entire legacy is hinging on the hope that Brown and Tatum not only hit as good players but as bonafied starts. That's a tough gamble.

His entire legacy?
Seems a bit dramatic don't you think?

 

[captain insano]

Danny's entire legacy is hinging on the hope that Brown and Tatum not only hit as good players but as bonafied starts. That's a tough gamble.

dannys legacy is as solid as a rock. its not his fault a team takes less than what he offered. im glad the celtics didnt waste assets on a one year rental. and its not his fault if hayward decides to play somewhere else. what is danny supposed to do. put a gun to his head?