DL & EDGE Players: Run stuffers, designated pass rushers, hybrids, etc

[manxman2601]

Very interesting. I've heard rumblings that he has anger issues. Combine that with his struggles against the run, and I've moved him way down on my board, but I could see the appeal for him in this scheme. Other than arm length, he has the perfect measurables for a Patriots edge player, and he was certainly productive this season.

I'm not a fan of his tape either but value and athleticism may come together if there aren't any top guys (Basham/Wise) there at 72. But I doubt he'll be on my final board.

 

[WaterfallJumper]

Still looking to do a few more reviews in the upcoming week, but I've pretty much settled on the guys I like. The biggest change is that I went back and rewatched a ton of Willis, and I think I was too harsh on him in several aspects. His hand placement is better than I gave him credit for, and he does shed blocks with good technique; his base is just sometimes disconnected from his hand movements, which saps some of his natural power. He's young and still developing, and some of that coordination and suddenness will come with age and training. Right now, he's a physical, strong, heady player, and even if his steadiness sometimes looks like plodding, he'll improve as he continues to put it all together.

I'm on the verge of upping my grade from mid-2nd to late-1st, and it seems that I'm not the only one moving him up my draft board. I no longer expect him to be available in the late 2nd, let alone at 72. It's a shame, because his interviews make him sound like a perfect Patriot: mature, focused, hard-working, football-savvy, etc.

 

[captain stone]

That's the thing. We can't possibly know who would or would not have been available later in the draft.

We, and the Kiper crowd, see the draft as almost purely a hierarchy of perceived "talent". This guy gets a 2nd-round "talent" grade, whereas this other guy gets a 5th-round grade. So, a guy with a 5th-round grade should be selected in the 5th round. If he's actually taken a couple rounds earlier, then we assume that it's a significant "reach" and the GM is either a genius (if it works out) or an idiot (if it doesn't) because the prospect certainly would have been available later - according to his "grade".

The fact is though, probably 50% (or more) of what determines when a prospect gets picked is the perception, on the part of the GM, of the demand for that prospect's services by other teams (the draft is essentially an auction, after all). So, if the GM really wants a specific prospect and he's certain that the prospect will be off the board by his next selection opportunity, he has to take that prospect right there and then (even if it's a couple rounds "early"), regardless of what we (or Kiper or Mayock) think about the prospect's talent level.

We simply do not have access to the information about potential demand from other teams that BB does.

This is all much easier to see with the jockeying for position/line-jumping in the 1st round, but it happens in pretty much every round. In fact, a major reason for teams trading up for what turns out to be a bust is "irrational exuberance" for a given prospect's perceived talent on the part of multiple teams. To a great degree, much of the expectation that a prospect will be taken in the 1st is often the result of publicity, that sometimes borders on propaganda, combined with a serious tendency toward group-think and oneupmanship on the part of team owners that blinds them and GMs to red flags that a more dispassionate evaluator would take into account.

What exactly does any of this post have to do with the Fact that whenever Bill reaches for somebody that nobody else had ranked in the same round (or two, or three, or...) in which they were taken, they All have Sucked?

 

[maineman209]

What exactly does any of this post have to do with the Fact that whenever Bill reaches for somebody that nobody else had ranked in the same round (or two, or three, or...) in which they were taken, they All have Sucked?

"ALL"? I don't think so.

And, taken in a league-wide context, I don't see BB as have done poorly at all with the draft. His record isn't perfect, but no one's is. Pretty much every other team has, at one point or another, traded a lot of picks to move up into the top 10 of the first round to draft a guy who turned out to be an irredeemable bust.

Anyway, that's all completely beside the point of my post.

 

[captain stone]

Which was…?

 

[maineman209]

Which was…?

In a nutshell ...

Talent and fit evaluations aren't anywhere near 100% rational, objective "science", and teams have a couple orders of magnitude more observations and data on which to base their judgments than we fans do. So, there can be (and often are) significant differences between how we rank a particular prospect relative to his peers at a position and how some, or even most, teams do.

Draft slot numbers merely represent a team's place in line at the buffet. "When" a prospect get scooped up by a team in the line is as much a function of that team's perception of his popularity among the teams in line behind them as it is a function of their evaluation of his talent.

Team's don't trade up from, say, #25 to #15 because the talent pool is better up there. They do so to line jump ahead of other teams to scoop up a specific prospect who they want and who they believe other team's ahead of them also want.

Sometimes this happens because the team's decision makers who really know there stuff believe their own talent evaluation (which is sometimes way off the mark ... because it's not 100% objective science) . Sometimes this happens because the owner thinks he knows more than the professionals in his employ, and/or just likes the guy, and/or thinks the guy will be more exciting for the fans to watch and put more fannies in the seats.

 

[long distance]

So Michael Lombardi likes Trey Hendrickson. Worth noting.

Very interesting. I've heard rumblings that he has anger issues. Combine that with his struggles against the run, and I've moved him way down on my board, but I could see the appeal for him in this scheme. Other than arm length, he has the perfect measurables for a Patriots edge player, and he was certainly productive this season.

Far from my fav guy but since attitude is key for me I wouldn't mind the pick.

He has the size (-hands), he gets his job done one way or the other, he has lateral speed that Pats still lack from ED/OLB position . and Id guess he is moldable.

 

[manxman2601]

Far from my fav guy but since attitude is key for me I wouldn't mind the pick.

He has the size (-hands), he gets his job done one way or the other, he has lateral speed that Pats still lack from ED/OLB position . and Id guess he is moldable.

All true. But I did get concerned at seeing him pushed back 2-3 feet by TEs. I don't think he'll be a significant year one contributor.

 

[maineman209]

All true. But I did get concerned at seeing him pushed back 2-3 feet by TEs. I don't think he'll be a significant year one contributor.

While it would seem beneficial to acquire prospects who can contribute something this season (because I think they're still a little thin on the front-7 edges), 2018 potential is the key for me since the Pats could be losing Ealy, Nink and Van Noy. So, I'd be okay with a guy who might only see 100-150 rotational/"relief" snaps later in 2017 if he can be a significant contributor/"starter" in 2018.

 

[long distance]

All true. But I did get concerned at seeing him pushed back 2-3 feet by TEs. I don't think he'll be a significant year one contributor.

And then you have f.e. Ebukam lower than him on current boards that is stronger, quicker, faster, much more versatile, productive (even has longer arms despite almost 3“ shorter) .. and can be big day 1 contributor on ST..

Or Mathis in his range (or lower) who is a monster player compared..
Rivers who is just so smart..

 

[manxman2601]

And then you have f.e. Ebukam lower than him on current boards that is stronger, quicker, faster, much more versatile, productive (even has longer arms despite almost 3“ shorter) .. and can be big day 1 contributor on ST..

Or Mathis in his range (or lower) who is a monster player compared..
Rivers who is just so smart..

I see Ebukam much more as a stand up linebacker who could offer pass rushing specialist upside. Mathis has too many red flags for me so I haven't watched him and can't comment. Rivers is very good but he's too much of a pass rushing specialist for me to think he's a likely Patriots pick. BB doesn't want someone who bends the edge but rather someone who attacks the OT head on effectively two gapping. At least that's the way I see it.

 

[long distance]

I am stealing this from one Falcon board - from Nawrocki's Draft Preview - to add another perspective on some edge binkies and others..

Some harsh evals but not too hard to see most of them.
Glad to see Basham & Tomlinson dodged the bullets..

(here is how the "Scout's Take" is described by Nawrocki at the beginning of the Draft Guide: "Included with many player profiles is a "Scout's Take", actual feedback reflecting unique and consensus opinions from NFL evaluators, stemming anywhere from veteran area scouts blanketing a region of the country to the savvy GMs going over the top of it when they can fit it into their busy schedules.")


Derek Rivers(DRE-ROLB): "There were games he was just standing around and not going hard. He has short arms. He's not good against the run. His hand use is marginal at best. He could have had 20 sacks if he didn't take plays off, especially at that level. I wish he were tougher."

Tyus Bowser(ROLB-PRS): "He is kind of raw. His instincts are not great. He has some bend and speed, but his motor runs hot and cold too much watching him on tape."

Tim Williams(DRE-ROLB): "The most underrated talent at Alabama is #56. He has first round talent but his character is going to knock him down. He played close to 260lbs.(in 2015) and was down to 238lbs(in 2016). He doesn't look big when you see him on the field because he is surrounded by so many giants. He has some issues, but the coaches love him there(Alabama)."

Takkarist McKinley(DRE-ROLB): "He is stiff, stiff, stiff. He's a straight-line speed guy that falls down when he tries to bend. Two-thirds of his production comes when he is unblocked vs. bad competition. He will get overdrafted.

Malik McDowell (DLE-DT): "His interview was one of the most difficult to sit through. There was a lot of blame for everyone else. It was very self-centered. It confirmed what you see on tape. He is a boom-or-bust guy. There is no in-between. How far does he slide before someone says this guy is too big, too long and too athletic not to draft? Some coach will be pounding the table saying, 'I know I can change him' - just glad it won't be us."

Carl Lawson (DLE-LOLB): "Lawson is a walking china doll. He looks like an undersized tin man. With all due respect, he plays his butt off. He's so stiff though, there's no way he can be an end."

T.J. Watt(ROLB-DRE): "T.J. Watt has some upside. I just left Wisconsin. He's probably a 3rd rounder for us. He reminds me of Redskins 2nd round pick(#47 overall in 2014) Trent Murphy. Watt is another better football player than athlete type. He has to be in a 3-4 defense as a rush linebacker."

Taco Charlton(DLE): "Taco didn't wow me at the combine and he didn't wow me on tape. You hear prognosticators and even people in our own building talking about him as a great defensive end - I just haven't bought in. He'll be drafted highly just off his sheer physical traits. I will stand by my grade in the 3rd round and see how his career plays out. I know what I saw, and I can only grade what I see."

Tarrell Basham(DLE): "Our coaches really like him. I don't think he can be a linebacker ater watching him work out at the Combine. He needs to have his hand in the dirt and moving forward. That's how he is going to make his living."

Caleb Brantley(3T): "Brantley is sitting in the 4th round for us. I think he is underrated as an 'under' tackle. His production is not great but the movement skill is there. Against some of the best competition late in the season, he played very well."

Daeshon Hall (DLE-LOLB): "Hall is really a 4-3 base end. He has a big frame but not the strength. He's stiff and mechanical."

Trey Hendrickson (DRE-ROLB): "He flashed at the East-West Shrine game against a bunch of bad offensive lineman. I wish he were more powerful. I didn't think he set the edge well on tape. He is a pass-rush specialist to me."

DeMarcus Walker(DLE-OLB): "How he got all those sacks baffles me. I didn't think he was a very good player."

Dalvin Tomlinson (DT): "Tomlinson is not just an anchor guy. He can play a little tackle-to-tackle. He will be drafted more highly than people expect because he can push the pocket".

 

[long distance]

Addendum from Reiss' article:

In 2016, draft analyst Nolan Nawrocki had said this about NC State offensive lineman Joe Thuney: “Looks destined for a role with a zone-blocking team like the Patriots.” He nailed it, as the Patriots selected Thuney in the third round (No. 78). Thuney was one of the most productive rookies of the entire NFL class, missing just four snaps all season. With that as a springboard, here is one nugget from Nawrocki’s 2017 draft preview with a Patriots twist: He sees a lot of Shea McClellin in Wisconsin linebacker/defensive end T.J Watt, the brother of J.J. Watt. Nawrocki writes, “He could evolve into a very dependable, productive pro if used to accentuate his strengths the way McClellin is in New England.” Might the Patriots be interested? That will be a fun one to monitor.

 

[Luxusdk]

Watt is more of a Clay Matthews breed then McClellin and the reason I have him as Pats top pick. Watt also has that relentless motor, probably runs in the family

 

[patchick]

What exactly does any of this post have to do with the Fact that whenever Bill reaches for somebody that nobody else had ranked in the same round (or two, or three, or...) in which they were taken, they All have Sucked?

Wow, I can't imagine what you're basing this statement on. I once sorted out all of the Pats draft picks who were considered "reaches" on draft day an those who were considered "steals" to see if those rankings/opinions actually predicted the quality of the draft choices. It turned out that popular opinion of the value of the pick had no predictive value. NONE.

 

[BaconGrundleCandy]

I am stealing this from one Falcon board - from Nawrocki's Draft Preview - to add another perspective on some edge binkies and others..

Some harsh evals but not too hard to see most of them.
Glad to see Basham & Tomlinson dodged the bullets..

(here is how the "Scout's Take" is described by Nawrocki at the beginning of the Draft Guide: "Included with many player profiles is a "Scout's Take", actual feedback reflecting unique and consensus opinions from NFL evaluators, stemming anywhere from veteran area scouts blanketing a region of the country to the savvy GMs going over the top of it when they can fit it into their busy schedules.")


Derek Rivers(DRE-ROLB): "There were games he was just standing around and not going hard. He has short arms. He's not good against the run. His hand use is marginal at best. He could have had 20 sacks if he didn't take plays off, especially at that level. I wish he were tougher."

Tyus Bowser(ROLB-PRS): "He is kind of raw. His instincts are not great. He has some bend and speed, but his motor runs hot and cold too much watching him on tape."

Tim Williams(DRE-ROLB): "The most underrated talent at Alabama is #56. He has first round talent but his character is going to knock him down. He played close to 260lbs.(in 2015) and was down to 238lbs(in 2016). He doesn't look big when you see him on the field because he is surrounded by so many giants. He has some issues, but the coaches love him there(Alabama)."

Takkarist McKinley(DRE-ROLB): "He is stiff, stiff, stiff. He's a straight-line speed guy that falls down when he tries to bend. Two-thirds of his production comes when he is unblocked vs. bad competition. He will get overdrafted.

Malik McDowell (DLE-DT): "His interview was one of the most difficult to sit through. There was a lot of blame for everyone else. It was very self-centered. It confirmed what you see on tape. He is a boom-or-bust guy. There is no in-between. How far does he slide before someone says this guy is too big, too long and too athletic not to draft? Some coach will be pounding the table saying, 'I know I can change him' - just glad it won't be us."

Carl Lawson (DLE-LOLB): "Lawson is a walking china doll. He looks like an undersized tin man. With all due respect, he plays his butt off. He's so stiff though, there's no way he can be an end."

T.J. Watt(ROLB-DRE): "T.J. Watt has some upside. I just left Wisconsin. He's probably a 3rd rounder for us. He reminds me of Redskins 2nd round pick(#47 overall in 2014) Trent Murphy. Watt is another better football player than athlete type. He has to be in a 3-4 defense as a rush linebacker."

Taco Charlton(DLE): "Taco didn't wow me at the combine and he didn't wow me on tape. You hear prognosticators and even people in our own building talking about him as a great defensive end - I just haven't bought in. He'll be drafted highly just off his sheer physical traits. I will stand by my grade in the 3rd round and see how his career plays out. I know what I saw, and I can only grade what I see."

Tarrell Basham(DLE): "Our coaches really like him. I don't think he can be a linebacker ater watching him work out at the Combine. He needs to have his hand in the dirt and moving forward. That's how he is going to make his living."

Caleb Brantley(3T): "Brantley is sitting in the 4th round for us. I think he is underrated as an 'under' tackle. His production is not great but the movement skill is there. Against some of the best competition late in the season, he played very well."

Daeshon Hall (DLE-LOLB): "Hall is really a 4-3 base end. He has a big frame but not the strength. He's stiff and mechanical."

Trey Hendrickson (DRE-ROLB): "He flashed at the East-West Shrine game against a bunch of bad offensive lineman. I wish he were more powerful. I didn't think he set the edge well on tape. He is a pass-rush specialist to me."

DeMarcus Walker(DLE-OLB): "How he got all those sacks baffles me. I didn't think he was a very good player."

Dalvin Tomlinson (DT): "Tomlinson is not just an anchor guy. He can play a little tackle-to-tackle. He will be drafted more highly than people expect because he can push the pocket".

I look forward to Nolans stuff every year but the scouts quotes have always sounded a bit manufactured to me?

For instance Rivers does need to put more hustle on plays away from him and his arms are on the short side but I disagree strongly with that quote.

37.5 sacks/56.5 TFL are not the #'s of someone standing around.

His hands are actually very good and there's many others who agree.

He's not just a pass rush specialist and plays the run just fine. His hands are regarded by many as some of the best in this class.

He can attack the loop/hoop and his man, something that goes unnoticed.

 

[jboston19]

@pinakk12: BREAKING: Former #Gators DL Caleb Brantley facing misdemeanor charge for allegedly knocking a woman unconscious that "displaced a tooth." pic.twitter.com/R3SsT3UbEc



Brantley has to be absolutely brain dead in addition to a horrific person to do something like this a week before the draft.

 

[long distance]

Not only another interesting prospect off the board but also less likely guys like Wormley, Ogunjobi, Tomlinson falling to #72/#96

 

[long distance]

I look forward to Nolans stuff every year but the scouts quotes have always sounded a bit manufactured to me?

For instance Rivers does need to put more hustle on plays away from him and his arms are on the short side but I disagree strongly with that quote.

37.5 sacks/56.5 TFL are not the #'s of someone standing around.

His hands are actually very good and there's many others who agree.

He's not just a pass rush specialist and plays the run just fine. His hands are regarded by many as some of the best in this class.

He can attack the loop/hoop and his man, something that goes unnoticed.

Agreed. But they do add some perspective.

Rivers certainly has Qs to answer . but I like his cat-like approach. He's not just rushing fool machine like most pure rushers but chooses his shots and then he's deadly. Reminds me a little of LeV Bell approach.

But its refreshing to see so blatantly that Bowser has instincts issues and that's not a small matter (even if he is still learning the trade), the Lawson and Takk takes I saw as well, Hall's surprising lack of strength is generally scouted..

Then again these are prospects and coaches will roll the dice on what and how much they can improve..

 

[maineman209]

Watt is more of a Clay Matthews breed then McClellin and the reason I have him as Pats top pick. Watt also has that relentless motor, probably runs in the family

If the Comp for Watt is Trent Murphy, I like him. I saw both Murphy and McClellin in their draft years as semi-comps for OLB/DE Nink - disciplined, solid edge-setters and good against the run with some rush chops and ability to cover the flat and a bit more. I thought McClellin was mis-cast with the Bears, but Murphy seems to have been properly deployed by the Skins.

In contrast, I didn't like Matthews much because he was a pass rush specialist and poor against the run (though he's gotten a bit better the past couple of years.