Super Bowl XLIX Carroll/Belichick prolepsis

[mosslost]

Did you watch the documentary where he goes through his thinking at the time? How he went through the pro's and con's in real time, and saw the other sideline in disarray and decided to press the issue? How they had Seattle's goal line offense extremely well diagrammed?

The idea that any of us neophytes could even begin to make a judgment about that, from this distance, is just absurd.

I beg to differ, and agree with most knowledgable football people who he made the wrong call and got lucky, but calling the timeout was the only correct decision in that moment. Brady would have had plenty of time to get to field goal range if the time had been called. If you are going to look at odds and percentages, it is unquestionable that BB did NOT play the percentages. The decision he made clearly reduced the Patriots chances of winning the game by leaps and bounds.

 

[mosslost]

It is debatable whether or not you should call a timeout in that situation or not and at the time I was screaming at my TV for a timeout. But looking over it I can see the upside to not calling the timeout. IDK how you can call that a "no brainer" and a "mistake". Belichick deciding not to call a timeout rushed the Seahawks and led to Seattle's decision to pass the ball. Seattle decided to pass the ball because w/out the timeout from Belichick they may not of had time to get 3 runs in if need be. So Carroll explained that he called the pass to make sure they could use all 3 chances to score.

Belichick just chose to bet on his defense instead of relying on a 40 second drive from Brady. And it worked out.

>>Belichick deciding not to call a timeout rushed the Seahawks and led to Seattle's decision to pass the ball. Seattle decided to pass the ball because w/out the timeout from Belichick they may not of had time to get 3 runs in if need be. So Carroll explained that he called the pass to make sure they could use all 3 chances to score.

This entire part was pure and utter blind luck. The fact is that BB greatly reduced the likelihood and the percentages of the Pats chances to win the game when he did not call the timeout. It is just a football fact. The odds were very high that the Seahawks would score there, and hence Brady needed time to get into field goal range, so BB made a wrong decision if the interest was to have the highest chance of being able to win the game. He just got bailed out and I am glad he did.

 

[bormio]

Felger and Mazz did a whole show on what would have happened had they lost.

Glad I missed that.

 

[Pats2000]

Not calling that time out was the biggest mistake BB ever made. It was a no brainer to call the timeout, and could have cost the Patriots a shot at the Super Bowl. He did get bailed out on that one in 49. Sorry, just a football fact.

A football fact? What's your pedigree to assert that? They even had practiced and knew Rhett goal line pass play they were running. It was one of the best strategies I've seen. Make Seattle tense, put it on them to play flawlessly on the biggest stage. He gambled his team was the better prepared and he was right

 

[Edelmania]

>>Belichick deciding not to call a timeout rushed the Seahawks and led to Seattle's decision to pass the ball. Seattle decided to pass the ball because w/out the timeout from Belichick they may not of had time to get 3 runs in if need be. So Carroll explained that he called the pass to make sure they could use all 3 chances to score.

This entire part was pure and utter blind luck. The fact is that BB greatly reduced the likelihood and the percentages of the Pats chances to win the game when he did not call the timeout. It is just a football fact. The odds were very high that the Seahawks would score there, and hence Brady needed time to get into field goal range, so BB made a wrong decision if the interest was to have the highest chance of being able to win the game. He just got bailed out and I am glad he did.

Eh I disagree especially with the blind luck part but we all can have our own opinions

 

[bormio]

I beg to differ, and agree with most knowledgable football people who he made the wrong call and got lucky, but calling the timeout was the only correct decision in that moment. Brady would have had plenty of time to get to field goal range if the time had been called. If you are going to look at odds and percentages, it is unquestionable that BB did NOT play the percentages. The decision he made clearly reduced the Patriots chances of winning the game by leaps and bounds.

Since Seattle's win chance was well over 90% either way, nothing BB did could have reduced the Pats chances of winning that much. And not all decisions in football are guided by the percentages - those do not take into account personnel matchups, emotion, intuition etc.

 

[aluminum seats]

You would be wrong then.

Incorrect.

 

[Palm Beach Pats Fan]

We're not going to comment on the use of prolepsis in the thread title?

lol, I had to google it, and I have 4 degrees!

 

[AvocadoIceCream]

Not calling that time out was the biggest mistake BB ever made. It was a no brainer to call the timeout, and could have cost the Patriots a shot at the Super Bowl. He did get bailed out on that one in 49. Sorry, just a football fact.

This is 10000% correct but you'll get flamed here because objectivity is frowned upon lol

 

[mikey m]

Eh I disagree especially with the blind luck part but we all can have our own opinions

No we can't. ML has already generously informed us that he and all the other people who are more knowledgeable about the game of football than BB have decided it is a proven fact that BB made a terrible decision, not opinion.

 

[bormio]

lol, I had to google it, and I have 4 degrees!

Must be a Harvard word.

 

[Simpelton]

Frankly I think both Carroll and Belichick were making good decisions at the end of the game. If we didn't have the situation we had I would take Pete Carroll as my head coach in a heartbeat. He's very good. He's not quite a match for the very best coach in the game right now, but neither is anyone else.

Both coaches were managing with an overall strategy in mind and made good tactical decisions based on the situation. Belichick made a better read, which is understandable because he has such vast experience in that arena, more than any other active coach, but Carroll really didn't make a bad one either. I would expect Carroll's decisionmaking and personnel to beat almost every team in the NFL with his team in such a good position and that much clock to work with. It just so happened that he was up against a grandmaster at the height of his ability, and he still gave his team a very good chance to come out of it with a Lombardi

It fell to their players to execute. Browner, Hightower and Butler simply executed better than Lynch, Lockette, Wilson or Kearse. The play call was decent, less than great but not WORST DECISION EVARRRRRR. If the execution had been there the Seahawks would have won that game. Putting your players in position to execute and win the game is the job of a head coach and Carroll definitely did that, that much is undeniable. That loss was not on Pete Carroll no matter how smugly the media tries to convince us it was.

 

[bormio]

I think if Seattle had run it with Lynch on 2nd down I think the Pats had a reasonable shot to stop that single play, maybe even get a small loss. They had stopped Lynch on 2 short-yardage situations earlier in the game - including one that forced the Seattle FG. Once it got to 3rd down, then the pressure would really have swung on Seattle. They almost certainly would have had to throw - or risk not getting a 4th down play. And you never want it to come down to a single 4th down play from the one - see NE vs Seattle this past season. Carroll expected BB to call a TO, and when he did not, I think they let more clock run than they intended - adding to the pressure they felt.

 

[YOUGOTMOSSED]

In this February 1, 2015 pre-Super Bowl joint press conference at 27:37 a reporter asks Carroll and Belichick how each handles 4th quarter pressure.

Carroll equivocates, doesn't give much of an answer actually, and looks uncomfortable.

Belichick is calm, precise: "I try to personally prepare for all the situations that come up during a game, and we try to instruct our team what we want to do in those situations when they come up. So, for us, it's all about practice: practice execution becomes game reality."

prolepsis? Sounds like someone hit the thesaurus before creating this thread.

 

[Pats1989]

BB not taking timeout " Possibly" could've cost them the SB. Then again, minus Tyree miracle catch & Manningham, Patriots have two more titles. Goes both ways. Only the Philly game was I certain they'd win in 4th quarter.

 

[Ras-IR Dowling]

That was pure dumb luck.

That the defense dissected the play which resulted in an interception?

 

[Oswlek]

I beg to differ, and agree with most knowledgable football people who he made the wrong call and got lucky, but calling the timeout was the only correct decision in that moment. Brady would have had plenty of time to get to field goal range if the time had been called. If you are going to look at odds and percentages, it is unquestionable that BB did NOT play the percentages. The decision he made clearly reduced the Patriots chances of winning the game by leaps and bounds.

Not playing the percentages =/ "clearly reducing the chances of winning by leaps and bounds". The first set is based on league averages and the latter is a single instance heavily influence by specific circumstance.

It's fair to say that Bill bucked the odds, and that his decision would have looked silly in retrospect had the gambit failed. Those are facts that you wouldn't get much disagreement about and more than sufficiently summarize your point of view. You take it a bridge too far when you say that all decisions that go against league averages are somehow wrong regardless of situation and outcome.

 

[Jlaff]

lol, I had to google it, and I have 4 degrees!

It's ok, it's usually the 4th degree that fully denotes the lack of intelligence. The first three, you might've actually had a plan and been working towards something!

 

[supafly]

lol, I had to google it, and I have 4 degrees!

I've got 4 myself (although 2 of them were only Associate degrees), and I'm still not sure that I fully understand the word.

 

[Jlaff]

Statistics are great until you can see for yourself a situation where they don't blindly apply. I'll accept the proposition that the time out was the right move, out of context, statistically. But let's just acknowledge Bill in his genius (and in a bit of gunslinging) found a situation where playing the numbers wasn't the best move.

The other thing I've always been so impressed with on that play, is none of the captains or players on the field, or other coaches, got nervous and called time out. Everyone was coached up to leave the timeouts to Belichick in that particular situation. Can you imagine if Mosslost was on the field, freaking out about the "right move". We might not have won that Superbowl.