Bill Belichick defensive philosophy and draft position

[BobDigital]

Just a random thought I had about BB and his defense. We often talk about BB's bend but don't break style of D. However as I thought about it and looked into that I came more and more to believe that was not the case and BB transitioned to a bend don't break out of need.

When it comes to defense it is all about keeping points off the board. If you can bend but not allow TDs you will succeed in that. If you can however stop teams cold you will succeed even more. So if BB is such a genius why does he choose to do bend don't break?

The answer is simple. He has no choice and to try to build a D that will stop teams in their tracks is not practical. That is because their draft position is too high. I believe BB once he realized he was not going to get any top draft picks due to the institutional winning of the franchise would not be able to get the players needed to play a more effective defensive style.

In 2001-2004 he did well acquiring FAs to fill out his team and Harrison was of course the big time addition but the keys to those Ds not to take anything away from other guys were Seymour (6th overall) Mcginest (4th overall) and Law (23rd overall and a steal). I am not trying to take away credit from guys like Bruschi, Vrabel, Milloy, Warren, ect.. However to me the clear key defensive players are those trio of potential HOFers and the add of Harrison.

Getting players like those super elite talents is hard if you are picking in the bottom 8 nearly every year. So after it was clear that group was leaving it's prime BB was forced to make the transition to a different style of D. This was the bend don't break style. Not to say he didn't do bend don't break before but it was never to the extent we see it today.

Players who specialize in this (not pass rush artist or shut down man corners) tend to be easier to get in the later first round. A guy like McCourty is more likely to drop than a guy like Earl Thomas. So why try to find the poor man's Earl Thomas when you can get the guy who is best suited for this particular style?

This is why BB tends not to try to get too many pass rushers. The top pass rushers never fall to him and at 24-32 you can get that run stopping DT or that sure tackling LB. People who take away the run so you can drop back further.

 

[Poker]

Interesting post and theory. Never really considered that. However, Bob, how much do you think is also due to the systematic structural/rule changes in the NFL since 2004 favoring offensive football and making it harder to play true shutdown D period anymore, regardless of talent or draft position?

 

[BobDigital]

Interesting post and theory. Never really considered that. However, Bob, how much do you think is also due to the systematic structural/rule changes in the NFL since 2004 favoring offensive football and making it harder to play true shutdown D period anymore, regardless of talent or draft position?

Partly it is that too but the best Ds in general still look to attack as opposed to bend don't break. Seattle and Denver have been the best Ds of the past few years and both attack a lot and try to dictate the game as opposed to getting.

However a lot of this is just guess work in BB's mind but logically it follows this would be the way to go if you know it is unlikely you will ever get top end talents like Watt, Mack, Miller, Donald, ect..

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

In 2001-2004 he did well acquiring FAs to fill out his team and Harrison was of course the big time addition but the keys to those Ds not to take anything away from other guys were Seymour (6th overall) Mcginest (4th overall) and Law (23rd overall and a steal). I am not trying to take away credit from guys like Bruschi, Vrabel, Milloy, Warren, ect.. However to me the clear key defensive players are those trio of potential HOFers and the add of Harrison.

In keeping with that theory when he was with the Giants, he built around Lawrence Taylor who was drafted 2nd overall.. That doesn't happen (drafting high) when you're annually winning 12-14 games and drafting down the bottom unless you fleece some team...

 

[bruce_w]

So the Browns got all the great defensive players and we got the bottom of the barrel.

 

[n1997y]

It's an interesting theory, and quite possibly plays into it, but I think the primary reason is more that Belichick is absolutely committed to preparing his team to avoid beating itself. He is all about playing mistake free football. Problem with an attacking style defense is that when it doesn't work it's usually going to give the opponents a big play. Basically, the opponents will get to break a big play.

Perhaps you should look at it slightly differently. Assume Belichick would play the same defensive style regardless, but what if he got those high draft picks and exceptional athletic talents?

I think that would result in a suffocating defense. Not generating big plays like an attacking defense, but coming up with stops and frustrating the opponent's offense by preventing them from making plays. Same style, not allowing any big play breaks but also not bending very much either.

 

[Ring 6]

Just a random thought I had about BB and his defense. We often talk about BB's bend but don't break style of D. However as I thought about it and looked into that I came more and more to believe that was not the case and BB transitioned to a bend don't break out of need.

When it comes to defense it is all about keeping points off the board. If you can bend but not allow TDs you will succeed in that. If you can however stop teams cold you will succeed even more. So if BB is such a genius why does he choose to do bend don't break?

The answer is simple. He has no choice and to try to build a D that will stop teams in their tracks is not practical. That is because their draft position is too high. I believe BB once he realized he was not going to get any top draft picks due to the institutional winning of the franchise would not be able to get the players needed to play a more effective defensive style.

In 2001-2004 he did well acquiring FAs to fill out his team and Harrison was of course the big time addition but the keys to those Ds not to take anything away from other guys were Seymour (6th overall) Mcginest (4th overall) and Law (23rd overall and a steal). I am not trying to take away credit from guys like Bruschi, Vrabel, Milloy, Warren, ect.. However to me the clear key defensive players are those trio of potential HOFers and the add of Harrison.

Getting players like those super elite talents is hard if you are picking in the bottom 8 nearly every year. So after it was clear that group was leaving it's prime BB was forced to make the transition to a different style of D. This was the bend don't break style. Not to say he didn't do bend don't break before but it was never to the extent we see it today.

Players who specialize in this (not pass rush artist or shut down man corners) tend to be easier to get in the later first round. A guy like McCourty is more likely to drop than a guy like Earl Thomas. So why try to find the poor man's Earl Thomas when you can get the guy who is best suited for this particular style?

This is why BB tends not to try to get too many pass rushers. The top pass rushers never fall to him and at 24-32 you can get that run stopping DT or that sure tackling LB. People who take away the run so you can drop back further.

Bend but don't break is not a defensive strategy.
Bend but don't break is the result of prioritizing not allowing big plays, and having a good defense.
Playing conservatively makes you more vulnerable to first downs by being less vulnerable to big plays. There is always a trade off.
If you are a good defense that plays conservative you give up more on a big field and take away more on a short field (by being good).

BB doesn't set out to bend but not break.
He sets out to prioritize not allowing big plays and that has to be done at the expense of allowing more first downs but he plans to stop every play. If his defense sucked it would also break since his defense never sucks when it does bend it doesn't break.

 

[Ring 6]

Partly it is that too but the best Ds in general still look to attack as opposed to bend don't break. Seattle and Denver have been the best Ds of the past few years and both attack a lot and try to dictate the game as opposed to getting.

However a lot of this is just guess work in BB's mind but logically it follows this would be the way to go if you know it is unlikely you will ever get top end talents like Watt, Mack, Miller, Donald, ect..

Not true that the best defenses are more aggressive. The best defenses make more plays because they win more one on one battles. People often mistake good individual defensive plays with an aggressive style but that's not true.

 

[doesntmatter1]

Our defenses all seem to be fundamentally sound and versatile but they do look slightly different from coordinator to coordinator. I think Romeo Crennel is the biggest difference between our defenses from then and now. Crennel's defenses at KC and Houston look similar to our old defenses but slightly too out of control. I believe BB reigned in his aggressive style just enough to create magic.

Also, when it comes to pass rushers, BB is just too picky and wants this well rounded freak that rarely come along. I know we always want to draft a pass rusher but it is clear that Free Agency works out best in that department. ex Vrabel, Colvin, Ninkovitch, Andre Carter, Mark Anderson, Sheard etc

 

[randomk1]

Seahawks not really a good example since the core of their defense is Earl Thomas(14th pick) and later round guys. Basically they got super lucky with a few drafts.

 

[luuked]

Seahawks not really a good example since the core of their defense is Earl Thomas(14th pick) and later round guys. Basically they got super lucky with a few drafts.

I think you should look up their drafts a bit. Except for Chancellor and Sherman all of their core players are day 1/day 2 guys.

Bennett is a special case as he was a UDFA but didn't work out in Seattle and landed in Tampa after a few years. It's with the Bucs where things finally clicked and he had a breakout season and was brought back in FA.

It's true though that similar to the 49ers 6-7 years ago the Seahawks nailed 1-2 drafts with contributions from many late players but since then have regressed to the mean and were even below average at drafting. Nobody noteworthy except maybe Lockett since 2013.

Which is the true story of why they are not a powerhouse anymore. If you decide to pay most of your drafted core players and fail to keep drafting well you will end up lacking depth and have weak positional groups that can be exploited.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Just a random thought I had about BB and his defense. We often talk about BB's bend but don't break style of D. However as I thought about it and looked into that I came more and more to believe that was not the case and BB transitioned to a bend don't break out of need.

When it comes to defense it is all about keeping points off the board. If you can bend but not allow TDs you will succeed in that. If you can however stop teams cold you will succeed even more. So if BB is such a genius why does he choose to do bend don't break?

The answer is simple. He has no choice and to try to build a D that will stop teams in their tracks is not practical. That is because their draft position is too high. I believe BB once he realized he was not going to get any top draft picks due to the institutional winning of the franchise would not be able to get the players needed to play a more effective defensive style.

In 2001-2004 he did well acquiring FAs to fill out his team and Harrison was of course the big time addition but the keys to those Ds not to take anything away from other guys were Seymour (6th overall) Mcginest (4th overall) and Law (23rd overall and a steal). I am not trying to take away credit from guys like Bruschi, Vrabel, Milloy, Warren, ect.. However to me the clear key defensive players are those trio of potential HOFers and the add of Harrison.

Getting players like those super elite talents is hard if you are picking in the bottom 8 nearly every year. So after it was clear that group was leaving it's prime BB was forced to make the transition to a different style of D. This was the bend don't break style. Not to say he didn't do bend don't break before but it was never to the extent we see it today.

Players who specialize in this (not pass rush artist or shut down man corners) tend to be easier to get in the later first round. A guy like McCourty is more likely to drop than a guy like Earl Thomas. So why try to find the poor man's Earl Thomas when you can get the guy who is best suited for this particular style?

This is why BB tends not to try to get too many pass rushers. The top pass rushers never fall to him and at 24-32 you can get that run stopping DT or that sure tackling LB. People who take away the run so you can drop back further.

Interesting thought.

I tend to think its more a combination of both.....and a few more things.

His defensive philosophy is to manage risk, be disciplined and flexible. No big plays, play the system and match up vs the opponents strengths.

Some years he had elite talent to do that to the 9s. Some not so much.

They may not have HoF -caliber types like Seymour, Law, Bru or Rodney types but they have pretty talented players sprinkled all over the defense who know their roles, play disciplined and are versitile.

 

[slam]

It seems to me that just two years ago that they had the young, talented core personnel for an attacking front 7 for a 4-3 defense. Chandler Jones, Easley, Jamie Collins, Hightower, Akeem Ayers. Doesn't it seem that they would do well if asked to play in the attacking style of Dungy's Colts teams? Remember how excited we were at the prospect of aligning Jones, Easley, and a blitzing Collins on one edge for the next five years?

Of course, due to economics, attitude, and coaches decisions the defense evolved back into the run stuffing, gap conscious, underrated unit that can't convince people they're worthy of the best PPG defense mantle.