Full disclosure: I'm less optimistic about this game than most. I think we'll win, but I probably place the odds of losing higher than most (I'm hovering between 70-30 and 60-40, so let's say 65-35). FWIW, I agree that the Steelers' D is nearly as good as ours, to the point that I wouldn't classify it as a major advantage for us. The main advantage, in my eyes, is that our offense is better and we have home field. The Steelers' offense has generally struggled on the road; Roethlisberger's home/road splits are pretty alarming if you're a Steelers fan. A lot of that probably comes down to crowd noise, so I hope our crowd brings it on Sunday. If that trend continues, and their offense plays like it generally has on the road, we will win. If they break the trend, then it's anyone's game.
Offensively, I think our winning formula is to go right after Mitchell and Timmons in the middle of the defense. Any time Mitchell is in deep coverage, I hope to see us attacking him with deep sideline throws to Hogan or seam passes to whoever happens to be in the middle of the field. Make him commit, and rely on him to overcommit and create openings for big plays. Shazier and Tuitt are the defenders that worry me. Shazier could disrupt our short passing game with his range, Tuitt can manhandle guys at the LOS and could disrupt us there. Harrison and Dupree are good, but I think our guys can handle them and keep them from having the kind of impact they had last week. It's a pretty big testament to Cannon's progress that I'm going into this game considering him to be one of the strongest matchups on the field for us; amazing how much perceptions can shift in just a few months.
