Pittsburgh Steelers reporter Jeremy Fowler and
New England Patriots reporter Mike Reiss take an in-depth look at Sunday's AFC Championship Game matchup.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Record: 11-5 regular season, 2-0 playoffs
First place, AFC North
The Steelers have officially turned back the clock. After two seasons defined by
Ben Roethlisberger's high-volume passing attack, Pittsburgh is winning with the running game and defense combined with timely throws from Big Ben. The offensive line and running back
Le'Veon Bell are choreographing chunk yardage at relative ease. The blockers are dominating up front, and Bell is averaging 27.5 carries per game in his last eight games, all wins. Bell knows how to make a playoff entrance, with 167 and 170 yards in his first two career postseason games. The Steelers hope to ride him to a Super Bowl berth similar to how the
Denver Broncos used Terrell Davis as the linchpin for their late-90s championship runs. Line play has catalyzed a nine-game winning streak with 31 sacks and nine sacks allowed since Week 11. The Steelers' run defense has tightened up for the playoffs, allowing a combined 68 yards to the
Miami Dolphins'
Jay Ajayi and the
Kansas City Chiefs'
Spencer Ware over back-to-back weeks. But the challenge of the Patriots in Gillette Stadium looms large. "We are going to have to be as good as we've ever been to beat this team," Roethlisberger said.
Steelers' X factor
Cornerback
William Gay. Gay's play often goes unnoticed in the national landscape, but he's been the Steelers' most reliable cornerback over the last two seasons. Gay moved into the slot corner position to make room for rookie
Artie Burns, a pure outside corner. Gay's role couldn't be more crucial than it is this week against
Julian Edelman, the Patriots' unquestioned top target with
Rob Gronkowski out. Edelman works the middle of the field with precision and quick feet. If Gay can contain Edelman for a few seconds each passing down, that gives the pass-rush time to disrupt quarterback
Tom Brady up the middle or off the edge.
Why the Steelers will win
The buzz is palpable around the Steelers' facility. This team is brimming with confidence, and the winning is infectious. "We feel we can beat anybody right now," Bell said. The Steelers are catching the Patriots at a vulnerable spot, with several receivers battling injuries and the
Houston Texans showing a blueprint to rattle Brady with pressure up the middle in the divisional round. The 2016 Patriots defense hasn't played a quarterback with Roethlisberger's skill set. He's 3-1 all time in AFC title games. The first two playoff games with Roethlisberger-Bell-Antonio Brown in the same lineup has produced undeniable results. The Steelers have at least four players on their defensive front four who can consistently win one-on-one matchups, including a possessed
James Harrison, who has 2.5 sacks this postseason. And Roethlisberger has 1,503 yards in his last four games against New England.
Why the Steelers will lose
In this era, the Steelers simply haven't found ways to win meaningful games against the Patriots. Brady is 5-1 in his last six games against the Steelers, and in that span he's produced 19 touchdown passes without throwing an interception. He likes the matchup against this defense, and even when the Steelers held Brady to 222 yards in Week 7,
LeGarrette Blount ran wild for 127 yards and two scores. The Steelers thrive off turnovers, and Brady produced only two interceptions in the regular season (though the Houston Texans received turnovers from him twice last week). Bill Belichick is known for making key adjustments after bad games, and he's got all the motivation he needs from that sloppy Houston game. And Pittsburgh hasn't played a team this good during its winning streak. The Steelers' mettle will be tested from the first snap.
Steelers prediction
The Patriots are known for taking away an opponent's best option. So if they try to take away Bell, can they also take away Brown? This is where the lack of an explosive second receiving option could finally catch up to Pittsburgh. If
Ladarius Green doesn't return from a concussion, missing his fifth straight game, the Steelers will need the supporting cast of
Eli Rogers,
Jesse James and others to emerge. Though they are nice pieces, that emergence is hardly a guarantee against the NFL's top-ranked defense. The Patriots haven't allowed a 90-yard rusher in the last 24 games, ESPN Patriots reporter Mike Reiss reports; Bell often eats 90 yards by halftime. Something must give. The Steelers are tempting to pick, they really are. This is more than a fighting-chance scenario. They are magma-hot. The tiebreakers: The Patriots' six straight home playoff wins and the Brady effect.
Patriots 27, Steelers 21
Oakland Raiders (1973-77).
Patriots' X factor
Defensive tackle
Alan Branch is playing arguably the best football of his 10-year career, as he is a stabilizing presence inside against the run. The Patriots haven't allowed a 90-yard rusher in each of their last 24 games, but Le'Veon Bell, who has hit that mark in each of his last eight games, should challenge that. How Branch plays will be critical, as his ability to two-gap and hold up on the interior allows linebackers to come downhill and make plays. Bill Belichick said in December that the 6-foot-6, 350-pound Branch was the team's most consistent defensive tackle "by far" this season.
Why the Patriots will win
Start with Brady. He wasn't too pleased with his two-interception performance in the divisional round, and his history of bouncing back with top-of-the-line performances in those situations is well-documented. In the end, the key will be the Patriots' tackling and red zone defense. The Steelers, with as good of a trio as New England has seen this year in quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Bell and receiver Antonio Brown, will move the ball and get the ball to Bell and Brown with a chance for them to pile up yards after the catch. The Patriots are one of the NFL's best tackling defenses, so they should be able to limit the big play. Then it will come down to whether they can deliver in the red zone, which they've done a lot more of in the second half of the season.
Why the Patriots will lose
Belichick said it best after Saturday's win over the Texans: "We fumbled, they intercepted us [twice], we had too many balls out, and we're lucky we didn't lose more than we did. We have to play better, we have to coach better, or there won't be much left in our season." It always starts with turnovers. The most telling stat: In Belichick's 17 years as head coach, the Patriots are 137-13 in the regular season when they have a positive turnover differential and 34-41 when it's negative. Defensively, it would take an uncharacteristic day of sloppy tackling and giving up the big play.
Patriots prediction
This game resembles the back-to-back AFC Championship Game contests against the
Baltimore Ravens following the 2011 and 2012 regular seasons -- two big, physical, mentally tough teams who won't wilt in the big-game environment. This has all the makings of a field goal-type game. Who is more likely to throw the game-turning interception? Brady has four this year (two in the regular season, two in the playoffs) and Roethlisberger has 15 this year (13 in the regular season, two in the playoffs).
Patriots 27, Steelers 24
