Mike Lombardi on the Jamie Collins trade..

[Joey007]

Forgive me for my sin of tuning into ESPN, but it was on, and they are all glowing about how good Elandon Roberts has looked. Said there was a play against Cleveland where Roberts knocked Joe Thomas to the ground.

Joe Thomas.

Man maybe this guys even better than I realize.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Do people think BB didn't try to get more for Jamie Collins?

Why on earth would a team offer more than a 3rd if the player wanted to hit FA at the end of the year?

 

[luuked]

First: every adjusted cap limit expectation overshoots the real thing.

Let's assume this time, it doesn't. Every team is going to have a whole lot of money. Some may even have 100M plus to spend. We are still going to have to compete with teams for players. And which team doesn't over-pay for players? Not the 32 Million to Chris Ivory Jaguars, that's for sure.

I really think your arguments are based on future hopes that don't fit with recent history. Which doesn't make them invalid or anything, but I don't agree with the them. I think things don't suddenly change. Our way of doing things will, more likely than not, remain the same, in my opinion.

Wrong. As of right now we are the team with the third most cap space available for next season:

NFL Salary Cap Space | Over The Cap

Even if we resign everyone else we will easily end up with around 20m available depending on how the contracts are structured.

 

[JayNM]

Its atrocious because your premise is flawed. Checkout the compensatory compensation chart of last year:

Compensatory Draft Picks Cancellation Chart - Over the Cap

What you will see is that almost any qualifying UFA signing can cancel out a UFA lost. So if we sign 2-3 of the usual 1,5m FAs those could cancel out the compensatory 3rd we would get for Collins and whatever we will get for Ryan.

Your mistake is assuming that there has to be close to monetary equivalence of signings which is historically not true.

That's why the Patriots have, in recent years, signed players that have been cut rather than had their contract expired. Again, for the last 4 Free agencies, we had more players lost than brought in, for compensatory picks argument. BB clearly thinks that having those picks are important. But that's just speculation, you know? I have as much chance of being right as i have chance of being wrong. For the time being, i don't like the trade.

 

[long distance]

So finally it is allowed to say something critical about this top 3 D? Something other than drooling over some statistics? Well, then I am glad that the sobering effect of half-season evaluation is hitting not only the Patriots locker room but also this board.



BB understands well who this defence played this year. And he knows who they will have to play if they want to win when it matters. This defence has a potential to be the SB D (it doesn't matter if its top 3, top 5 or top 10; it doesn't matter what statistics say; BB doesn't care about this- I bet he doesn't even look at weekly media created statistics ..) All he wants is that this D turns potential into reality - every week. That it progresses with each game, grows and glues.

If that means cutting one of the best defensive athletes - then be my guest. Of course its more to this move than meets the eye. I was thinking about this option last couple of weeks (even before Van Noy became another in line of LB additions this year) .. but to be honest I never thought they would actually do it in the SB bound season. This season BB traded two best athletes this D had in some time and its not easy to take since it was such a joy to finally have them here. But he was with this two young men for three years and we'll just have to trust him on that.

 

[JayNM]

Wrong. As of right now we are the team with the third most cap space available for next season:

NFL Salary Cap Space | Over The Cap

Even if we resign everyone else we will easily end up with around 20m available depending on how the contracts are structured.

I hope you are right then. We do have a whole lot of money. Will hope we use it

 

[Silver Blue&Red]

He didn't do his job

 

[BradyFTW!]

Yup. He has. It's the return that's stunning. McCourty has been playing better as Butler has played better. It's a symbiotic relationship.

As Howe said, one sack from Collins. One. A scrub LB will run into one sack. I trust BB knows what he' doing, but he's a wild man for sure.

I think using the one sack stat to portray Collins negatively is a bit misleading. He hasn't been great by any measure, but judging inside LBs by sacks isn't super useful. Especially since Hightower has been the one doing most of the A gap blitzes this year and Collins has missed some time due to injury.

As long as Hightower stays healthy, I think they can gameplan around this trade in a lot of ways, But relying on Hightower to stay healthy is an iffy proposition on a good day.

 

[luuked]

That's why the Patriots have, in recent years, signed players that have been cut rather than had their contract expired. Again, for the last 4 Free agencies, we had more players lost than brought in, for compensatory picks argument. BB clearly thinks that having those picks are important. But that's just speculation, you know? I have as much chance of being right as i have chance of being wrong. For the time being, i don't like the trade.

Of course you can not like the trade and there is nothing wrong with that.. obviously.

My point the entire time was that there is nothing guaranteed in terms of compensation if you let someone walk. And if you wanna restrict yourself to a certain segment of players in FA then sure. But I assume that this team plans ahead and is aware of years where it's prudent to go light on FAs to keep those compensatory picks coming in and then there are years where they plan to hand out some extensions which means there will only be a couple of compensatory picks available anyway and then they don't have to work within those restricted bounds.

Or in different words, preferring a guaranteed pick to a high compensatory could be a slight show of hand that the Pats have some substantial FA plans.

 

[JayNM]

Of course you can not like the trade and there is nothing wrong with that.. obviously.

My point the entire time was that there is nothing guaranteed in terms of compensation if you let someone walk. And if you wanna restrict yourself to a certain segment of players in FA then sure. But I assume that this team plans ahead and is aware of years where it's prudent to go light on FAs to keep those compensatory picks coming in and then there are years where they plan to hand out some extensions which means there will only be a couple of compensatory picks available anyway and then they don't have to work within those restricted bounds.

Or in different words, preferring a guaranteed pick to a high compensatory could be a slight show of hand that the Pats have some substantial FA plans.

I can only hope you are right

 

[BradyFTW!]

That's why the Patriots have, in recent years, signed players that have been cut rather than had their contract expired. Again, for the last 4 Free agencies, we had more players lost than brought in, for compensatory picks argument. BB clearly thinks that having those picks are important. But that's just speculation, you know? I have as much chance of being right as i have chance of being wrong. For the time being, i don't like the trade.

Yeah, I agree with that. Belichick has proven over an over again that he'll tailor his FA strategy however he needs to if a 3rd round comp pick is at stake. If that means signing one fewer $1.5M/year UFA from another team, then that's that.

 

[JMC00]

All year Qb's have had their way with this defense

'
Ya Taylor absolutely shredded them yesterday

 

[BradyFTW!]

'
Ya Taylor absolutely shredded them yesterday

Shredded is an overstatement, as is any claim that the defense has been good or has played to anything resembling expectations.

But, speaking of yesterday, I do think the Pats' D played a pretty iffy game considering they were going against a Bills offense that was missing McCoy, Watkins, and Goodwin with Woods playing far below 100%.

 

[TomPatriot]

If maybe they thought that Collins was holding the defense back, who will step up now and take his place? We need more than just Hightower and Roberts.

Maybe the guy who does his job and shows up every play on special teams - Mingo.

 

[long distance]

Certainly not this year. I think it's fair to say he was last year, but Hightower and Butler have both played at a much higher level than Collins has this season. Probably McCourty too, although he can be tough to observe watching the TV broadcast when he's playing deep so often.

It was visible the last four games - with the return of Ninko and emergence of Roberts - that the D is improving visibly against the run. For people who love stats - look at the stats @BUF of rushing yards allowed when Collins was in compared to when Roberts was in.

No doubt this move can hurt Pats - it will not be easy to improve pass D without Collins .. especially with inconsistent CB #2&3 play ..

 

[luuked]

Yeah, I agree with that. Belichick has proven over an over again that he'll tailor his FA strategy however he needs to if a 3rd round comp pick is at stake. If that means signing one fewer $1.5M/year UFA from another team, then that's that.

I agree but on the flipside this also means to me that if the team projects that there will only be so many compensatory picks handed out and they can get them guaranteed earlier and unshackle themselves from a rigid FA strategy for one offseason which coincidentally is the one with a ****ton of space then I trust them to do so.

I will judge after the first wave of FA is done.

 

[scott99]

I think they got rid of Lombardi because he wanted more money and wasn't performing as well as in the SB year.

 

[Deus Irae]

Shredded is an overstatement, as is any claim that the defense has been good or has played to anything resembling expectations.

But, speaking of yesterday, I do think the Pats' D played a pretty iffy game considering they were going against a Bills offense that was missing McCoy, Watkins, and Goodwin with Woods playing far below 100%.

The defense has been a top NFL defense. Now, what that might say about the offenses the team's faced, and the other NFL defenses this year...

 

[BradyFTW!]

It was visible the last four games - with the return of Ninko and emergence of Roberts - that the D is improving visibly against the run. For people who love stats - look at the stats @BUF of rushing yards allowed when Collins was in compared to when Roberts was in.

No doubt this move can hurt Pats - it will not be easy to improve pass D without Collins .. especially with inconsistent CB #2&3 play ..

It's possible that they think Mingo is ready for an expanded role in the passing game, maybe. He's a hell of an athlete, and maybe they figure disciplined, playing-within-his-role Mingo > freelancing Collins?

 

[luuked]

I can only hope you are right

Hope so too. Like I said, either we go quiet as usual in FA which in turn means that we have extended (or franchised) everybody (Bennett, Long, Hightower, Butler) or might get one exciting FA session.