Idle thoughts - a requiem

[patfanken]

I am angry, disappointed, and furious over the result of this game. But it is my obligation to discuss it....and I will so to the best of my ability. However when I am done with it, I am done with the NFL until sometime after the draft. I will have a passing interest in having Manning get his lunch handed to him in the superbowl, but I won't bother to watch or to listen to it or any of the next two weeks of BS

I do NOT want to get caught up in the “blame game” hurricane that is about to hit the media for the next several months. There are lots of things to QUESTION about today’s game, but blame…..? That is being too lazy because it is the easy way out. The lowest common denominator if you will.

So let’s get this started so I can get this over with and drown my sorrows by binge watching this season of House of Cards on Netflix until I fall asleep.

Disclaimer – I watched this at a local bar. It was hard to hear the announcers (not that that’s a bad thing), but there were things you would like to know that I don’t and I haven’t read a thing on the site. Something like some technical screw up I think the Pats had to endure. What was up with that?

1. Where to start. Ok let’ begin with the home field advantage, because it was a big reason for many of the problems we saw today. Von Miller is a great pass rusher, but like Freeney in Indy, he really knows how to take advantage of the home crowd.

One of my pet peeves among NFL players is that they do not improve their quickness off the ball. Miller has. 2 or 3 of his most impressive rushes today came because he was able to get off the ball right at the snap and the OLman assigned to block him didn’t because of the crown noise.

Also being on the road directly affects the volume of plays you can run because it is hard to communicate in hostile environments.

Third your ability to communicate changes at the LOS is also made much more difficult. It was clear to me a couple of times that Brady changed something at the LOS and not everyone got the message.

It is not THE reason for the loss, but it didn’t help.

2. The Refs. – Boy that first quarter or so was REALLY hard to handle. If there ever looked like there was a fix in, it surely did then. Non-calls on Gronk after being hit 3 times AFTER the 5 yard mark. A PI on a Pats play after the receiver ran into HIM. The 15 yarder that killed a drive on Stork for doing the exact same thing a Denver player had done a couple of plays before. Neither were worthy of a flag. We got the call on the backward pass, but no thanks from the officials who clearly missed the call. Plus the early whistle made us score from almost 30 yds out, instead of getting the TD right there because the whistle blew early

In the end it gave Manning 7 points because the right call on the PI there would have ended their drive. HOWEVER as bad as the first quarter or so was, it really didn’t continue the rest of the game. Sure there were a number of non-calls (like Talib’s hold of Gronk keeping him from jumping). But that’s the way they were consistently calling the game.

BOTTOM LINE: the officials didn’t help, but it was a lot more to it than that that cost us the game.

3. Manning – Manning sucked. He was as bad as we expected, even worse. His 2 TDs were mistakes by Jamie Collins (who played a stellar game other than those 2 plays). His next 2 best throws came on prayers that were answered by receivers who were blanketed by our defenders. 175 yards and just barely over .500 completion rate is not going to win the superbowl….or even come close. Christ they only got 12 first downs. Manning is going to finish his career at under .500 winning percentage in playoff games.

4. The Denver run game – The Pats were outstanding today in covering the run. Denver almost got half their yardage on one play. I hope they break that one down later in the week, I would like to see what happened. I was shocked to see him break thru the line untouched. When the play started I was thrilled and didn’t expect him to make the first down. Unfortunately that ONE time led to what turned out to be the game winning FG.

5. The Denver Defense. - I have to say that was the best D I’ve seen thrown at the Pats in years. There were a number of times where Brady had plenty of time, but still couldn’t find anyone open.

You’d like to think that they were doing a lot of holding or some kind of nefarious thing to stop our receivers, but on most of the plays I saw mostly it was just good coverage and preparation. The Denver LB’s and DB’s were jumping on routes like they knew they were coming way to much.

During the first quarter, when the announcers, were ball washing Wade Philips, I was whining at the screen they should save their kudos for the refs, because they were the real reason the Pats weren’t converting 1st downs. It is tough to convert 2nd and 20. That was the refs, not Wade. However as the game went on, the expected adjustments never happened, or never worked. Brady rarely looked comfortable in the pocket even when he had time. Nothing ever looked like it was in rhythm The ball never came out on time as we have so often seen when things are going as expected

This should be Josh’s first priority this off season. Breaking down what Philips did and come up with an answer for next time. Believe me every DC of a team will will play next season will be spending a lot of time looking at this scheme and strategy.

6. I won’t be listening but I will find it funny that so many mediots will be SHOCKED at this result after predicting a 3-7 point victory for the Pats and having them lose by 2, only because of a missed extra point. Most of them will try to make it look like Pats vs the Rams circa 2001. Don’t buy it.

7. Gronk was just awesome. 166 yds and still getting mauled. He really IS a man.

 

[patfanken]

8. My questions :

a. I felt all along the Pats would need to stretch the Defense even it was for show. They never really did unless it was routes outside to White and Boldin. Where was the in and up cut that had Edelman wide open in the AFCCG in 13. Until that 4th down to Gronk on the last drive we never threatened the deep middle of that 2 deep. In my mind we allowed them to keep squeezing our short routes by never making them pay for that strategy.

That being said, we missed by inches on several of those RB wheel routes and double moves on the outside. Like they say, football is a game of inches

b. I question the formation and play call on that 4th and one on the first drive to tie the gamef late in the 4th. Shouldn’t you win or lose a game by doing what you do best. Our running game does NOT demand any respect so why run a play that demands the defense to respect the run. We should have lined up with 4 wides and a RB from the shot gun and let Brady decide where to go with the ball. Run/pass, it wouldn’t mattered. If it had failed we would have gone down doing what we do best.

c. Brandon LaFell played most of this game and didn’t get a single target. I have to question that. You also have to question his future here.

d. I don’t think I wouldn’t have done anything different, but think about this. Suppose DA didn’t break that tackle and the Pat were left with 4th and 6 from the 20 with 3.50 left and all three timeouts. Maybe they take the FG, narrowing the score to -5 and get the ball back again with 155 left and one TO, and the Gronk score was for the WIN instead of the possibility of a tie. Hmmm.

e. Brady – This isn’t a game he’ll cherish. Both those picks were his fault.He had more than a few flat out misses on some short stuff. All those deep RB passes were open for the most part. Difficult throws for sure, but you’d like your HOF QB to make one or two, like the one to Gronk. Still he wasn’t getting great protection at the end and took a beating all day. He will win that game 8 times out of ten. Today was just not the day.

f. Collins and Hightower - Both were superb, however it was Collins who is directly to blame for both the Denver TDs. He blew the coverage on the first Daniels TD giving them a lay up, and on the 2nd he played bad situational football. He never should have gone for the double move on 3rd and 10 on the GL. Granted that WAS Manning’s best pass of the day.

g. Did Chandler Jones even play today, because as far as I could see, he was pretty invisible. They credited him with one tackle. Was it his knee?

i. I question just a little bit, why we came out so soft at the start of the game. When we started to play them tighter they never really threatened. That soft coverage on 3rd down plus the bogus PI directly led to that first score

9. Malcolm Butler is going to be a top notch CB for at least the next 3 or 4 years. On the 2 plays where balls were caught on him, he got his hands on both of them. Great catches by those guys. He had a fantastic year, and there is room to improve. Next year some of those “missed by an inch” plays will be passes defended and some of those passes defended will be picks. They really need to get him some more money this off season.

10. On to next year.

a. Priority #1 get the OL solidified. I’m not sure we need to add different players as to get back Solder and Wendell. Have Volmer get healthy and back to the right side, and have Stork, Jackson, Mason, Andrews and Kline, make their 2nd/3rd year jumps

b. Beyond adding those 18 IR guys to the 53 that finished the year, everything else will be a competitive luxury. It is going to be very hard to make this team next season and there will be an number of good guys who won’t.

c. There will be tons of things to discuss this off season, but despite the really hard schedule we have next season, I really like how the team is shaping up.


d. I really hope the team mounts an all out attack on getting that draft pick back. Not that I think it is key to our success, or anything, but that we were subject to an injustice and we shouldn’t just let it go.


11. To those of you who will watch the superbowl, I hope it ends up the way you want. I will probably be back on Monday or Tuesday to support my own thread and answer any questions or comments. Like most of you, I really hate seeing the season end like this, but it is the season we got. Next year, we hope will be better. Good night.

 

[Joker]

Thanks my friend.We've been here before. We've been to the top before also. Sometimes you get the bull, sometimes you get the horns

 

[HeadHunter]

@patfanken thanks for the great break down as always. I look forward to them after every game. Cheers to you for making me feel just a little bit better and cheers to next year.

 

[luuked]

The elephant in the room were the OL breakdowns that we just couldn’t get under control. I am not sure what the solution there will be because we already have a lot of resources invested into our OL but our inability to handle the Denver pass rush, especially in the interior and letting Brady step up really cost us the game. It is anyway a good point in time to draft another OT to groom behind Solder/Vollmer so I guess this would be the first domino to fall. Despite feeling disgusted by some of the Guard play today I am not sure if it is reasonable to assume that we will put high draft stock/FA money into that position.

The second big issue, and it really haunted us the entire season, was our special teams play. In the previous years we had been outstanding on special teams and could really rely on those guys. However, after Scottie O’Brien went into retirement we seemed to have regressed a lot in that area. Fumbling on punts/kickoffs, the meltdown against the Eagles, abysmal coverage on opponent’s gunners in the return game.. and now also missed extra points. While obviously a lot of that are individual errors I wonder if there will be any change over the summer around the ST coordinator position.

The third lesson that is somewhat combined with the OL play is that we really need a credible 1st/2nd down RB threat. And this is something that I think has been missing for a time now, except for the handful games that Dion Lewis was healthy. However, if the opponent exactly knows your intentions on almost every play everything gets more difficult..

Also I wouldn’t be surprised to hear about the real extent of LaFell’s injury in the next few days. Similarly, wouldn’t be surprised if Edelman actually reaggravated his injury at some point and that’s why he disappeared for the most of the game.

 

[Teleman]

Thanks Ken. I really appreciate and enjoy your insights.

 

[Patriot Missile]

Thanks for the 2015/16 Idle Thoughts edition.

 

[blackglass3]

Thanks for the great stuff as usual, Ken!

 

[upstater1]

I was exhausted by this season. It started in March. As a fan, I've had my fill of football. Game 6 this year felt like game 12. I'll get over this loss quick. If they'd lost to Osweiler, I'd have been over it already.

 

[Mark.]

I was exhausted by this season. It started in March. As a fan, I've had my fill of football. Game 6 this year felt like game 12. I'll get over this loss quick. If they'd lost to Osweiler, I'd have been over it already.

As much as I wanted to see a win, the loss didn't shock me and I'd rather lose the AFCCG than the SB. With the o-line woes, I don't know how Brady made it through the game w/o a major injury. With Defamegate, it felt like there was no offseason. Imagine how exhausted both mentally and physically Brady is.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Thanks for being a true fan of the team and putting into words what most of us feel.

I was confused by the lack of help for the left tackle position that was constantly getting abused. Even a chip and go or another Olineman would have helped give Brady that extra .1-.35 seconds he needed (then again maybe that's just wishful thinking).

I agree about the first quarter refs and that if felt balanced after that. Certainly some some other things that could have been called on us and other non-calls.

Denver is going to have their hands full with Carolina.

 

[BelizePats]

Rational thought in a sea of anger and blame. I will tune out over the next 2 weeks but will watch the Super Bowl. I have a vested interest in seeing Manning lose and the NFL not get the outcome it so badly wants.
Thanks Ken.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Thanks my friend.We've been here before. We've been to the top before also. Sometimes you get the bull, sometimes you get the horns

Absolutely.

The Pats are playing in rarefied air, where the difference between a Lombardi and crying is a rub play that goes awry or a missed Extra Point.

FWIW, my grades for the game:

Defense: A (maybe even A+ for the **** that the Offense left them to handle)

Offense:
Total: D
Line: D-
Brady: B/B+, a lot of his throws were off targer or noodle armed or panicked, and, while he spent the day on his butt and that wasn't his fault, he didn't step up when the game was going to turn on a couple of plays...and the two picks didn't help.

Special Teams: D-

A decent return by Amendola (quickly obliterated by the O line) rescues this from being an F.

Gostkowski: F. His Regular Season stats are as meaningless as Peyton's. I'll repeat that. I love Gostkowski's regular season stats, just like Peyton's fans love his.

BUT, we can't have it both ways and slam Peyton for putting up big numbers from September to December and for choking when it counts in January and not call a spade a spade for what we saw today, when Gostkowski misses that XP and then has a chance to give the Pats a last gasp and his onside kick goes five yards before it's recovered. #4 is still Mr. Clutch for the Pats....and always will be IMO...I'm not ready to argue that, so everybody can save their collective breath.

 

[Tony2046]

Thanks Ken. I enjoy reading your breakdowns.

One huge positive to consider is that Brady n crew completely discredited the whole deflategate BS with their 10-0 start along with Brady's league leading stats. It shoved the whole deflategate premise of deflating footballs for a competitive advantage right up Roger's arsh. Amen to that.

The only thing I want to see this offseason is answers for the Oline Oline Oline Oline.

 

[smg93]

Thank you Ken for your posts all year. Just to post a general comment: That Denver D played well today and it all starts up front - when you can get a 3 man rush pressure Tom Brady, you pretty much know that no one's going to be open downfield.

 

[raduray]

As always, this is one of the more insightful posts on this forum. I generally agree, with the exception that I think we need to pursue a viable deep threat. That shouldn't need to come from the RB's.

 

[gitgronked82]

Thanks Ken. I enjoy reading your breakdowns.

One huge positive to consider is that Brady n crew completely discredited the whole deflategate BS with their 10-0 start along with Brady's league leading stats. It shoved the whole deflategate premise of deflating footballs for a competitive advantage right up Roger's arsh. Amen to that.

The only thing I want to see this offseason is answers for the Oline Oline Oline Oline.

for rational fans, yes.

for most fans- PATS COULDNT WIN WITHOUT CHEATING! brady has 0 legit rings!!!!!!

 

[mgteich]

Third your ability to communicate changes at the LOS
5. The Denver Defense. - I have to say that was the best D I’ve seen thrown at the Pats in years. There were a number of times where Brady had plenty of time, but still couldn’t find anyone open.

You’d like to think that they were doing a lot of holding or some kind of nefarious thing to stop our receivers, but on most of the plays I saw mostly it was just good coverage and preparation. The Denver LB’s and DB’s were jumping on routes like they knew they were coming way to much.

During the first quarter, when the announcers, were ball washing Wade Philips, I was whining at the screen they should save their kudos for the refs, because they were the real reason the Pats weren’t converting 1st downs. It is tough to convert 2nd and 20. That was the refs, not Wade. However as the game went on, the expected adjustments never happened, or never worked. Brady rarely looked comfortable in the pocket even when he had time. Nothing ever looked like it was in rhythm The ball never came out on time as we have so often seen when things are going as expected

This should be Josh’s first priority this off season. Breaking down what Philips did and come up with an answer for next time. Believe me every DC of a team will will play next season will be spending a lot of time looking at this scheme and strategy.

Our OL was not able to protect Brady against the best pass rush and best defense in the NFL.

Josh's first priority will be to have a much better offensive line, as well as better running backs. We have a fine offense if Brady has just a couple of seconds to throw. Denver, with the best pass rush that I can recall Brady playing against just didn't give him that time.

Sure, Josh will break down the game. But the issue was that we were seriously outmanned. Really awesome pass-rushers had to overcome the likes of Cannon, Stork, Andrews, Mason and Kline. This was not close to a fair fight.

 

[PatsFanNM]

I think we should be grateful that a team that had this much injury in a year could get within a two-point conversion of tying the AFC championship game. My guess is that eight to ten of the people playing today could end up with surgery, and that doesn't, of course, count all the people on IR.

This was a tough game. The Denver defense was great. The Pats defense was great except on the first drive. Denver had great field position several times and could manage only field goals, or even went backwards and had to punt. The other touchdown came on a perfect Manning pass to the very corner of the end zone, with a linebacker -- albeit a great one, but injured -- on a tight end. Very tough play to stop.

The O line was disappointing. How much better would they have been with Solder in there? Better. How much better without second-year guy and a rookie, but experienced veterans instead? We'll see next year, and I'm sure we'll have additions.

I don't see how you can call out special teams because a guy who has hit 560 PATs in a row finally misses one. Terrible place to miss it, and it cost us at least the tie. Brady was asked about Gostkowski in his press conference and went beyond his usual non-criticism of a teammate. He said he was a completely great player and teammate. And he is.

Sorry they lost. But the season as a whole was a heroic effort. And they never stopped fighting.

 

[Canuck]

Great post as always Ken.

Patriots had problems with their Microsoft Tablets while Denver's were working OK. According to what I heard, Denver was allowed to keep using theirs while NFL tried to fix the Patriots. Not sure what the problem was but it was fixed. If this had happened at home and the Patriots had won, the Headlines would probably be Patriots Cheat Again.

There was no fix in but still the same old ****. Denver was allowed to maul Gronk all over the field but we get called for minor infractions. Frustrating but it's been that way all season. I hate that they treat Gronk differently from other receivers. Still Gronk is a beast and I can't blame the defenders if the NFL allows them to get away with it.

The OL struggled when Solder went down. At one time they had Flemming playing LT and Stork RT. Too many injuries. We need a stud LG. That position has trended downward since Mankins left. Jackson and Mason are jags at this point. Losing Wendell hurt our strength at RG. Cannon is what he is, a back-up tackle. If he had more talent he would be a starter.

Our run game is in serious need. Lewis was a find but I have serious doubts that he can stay healthy for a whole season. I think he should be used next year as the 3rd down back and not as the lead back as he was used at times this year. I was a huge White fan in preseason but he was never utilized like Vereen was. Bolden is a good special teams player, as a RB and receiver he is ho hum. Blount is an adequate lead back but the power run game really suffered when he got injured.

LaFell disappeared this year. There was never a serious outside threat this year. Not sure if he will be back but it's a situation that has to be addressed. With no outside threat, it makes it harder for Edelman and Gronk to get open.

The defense was the strength of the team. They did their part this year, it was the offense that really struggled. As much as I like Chandler Jones, he simply has a hard time being healthy enough to be effective in the playoffs. Mayo's game has gone down hill. We need another stud LB to go with Hightower and Collins.

The good news, despite all the injuries and all the things that could go wrong, did go wrong, we still had a very good chance of going to back to back SB's. Home Field advantage was a huge factor and the Patriots blew their chance to get it.

Here's to 2016 and another run at the SB. Kudos to the 2015 Patriots for their grit and determination to succeed despite all their adversity. Brady showed that the only thing deflating in 2015 was Goodell's honor and integrity.

In the end Denver was the number 1 seed and played well enough to win. They earned the win but I will be rooting for Carolina in the SB.