Will this defense be top ten? (hint: no)

[Joey007]

Even with the garbage time counting, in the Bills game it was more due to overaggressive play calling on offense that lead to wearing out the defense. Had we ran more at the end of it it would not have even been an issue.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

this thread is a fail (so far)

 

[Deus Irae]

Garbage time is when only a miracle, or barrage of ridiculous plays, can keep a team from winning. Being up 2 scores with 2 minutes left and the other team having possession is not garbage time.

For a good primer on garbage time v. non-garbage time, one need only compare the Jaguars and Jets games.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

@Deus Irae @Bobsyouruncle I would define "garbage time" as down-weighted plays in which the win probability added (WPA) is less than the expected WPA for that type of play. Take for instance a game in which the Pats are up 42-17 with 5:32 left in the fourth quarter. With a smaller margin and more time left on the clock, a field goal by the losing team could cost the Pats -16.4% in win probability (just to throw a random figure out there). But with a 24-point advantage, a field goal in that kind of scenario would only cost the Patriots -0.1%. In my opinion, that would be classified as a garbage time play.

 

[rochrist]

But our pass rush is weak, and our secondary is terrible. How is that possible?

I don't know. I don't care and I can't stand it!

 

[JMC00]

Well if we want to throw the 99% win probability stuff away then the Pats have given up 27 points in garbage time

Pitt- 7. Scored was 28-14 and they scored with 7 seconds left.
Jax- 14. Scored 30-3 and 51-10
Indy-6.

And yes that dolts TD was garbage time.

3 plays, 9 yards- PUNT
6 plays, 14 yards- PUNT
6 plays, 17 yards- DOWNS
Pats go up 2 scores- 34-21
3 plays, -7 yards- PUNT
6 plays, 7 yards- PUNT
9 plays, 56 yards- DOWNS
Patriots up 34-21 with 3 minutes to go.
Then they score the TD.

That was their 2nd half. Didn't get the TD until BB decided to rush 3 and drop everyone into zone and trade yards for time.

 

[Ring 6]

Garbage time is a bad term.
I look at it this way. When you have enough of a lead that playing conservative almost can't cost you the game allowing points in a low priority if you don't allow them quickly.
The end of Pitt and Indy are examples. We only cared (as we should have) about not letting them score QUICKLY. If they want to go on a long drive that consumes the clock when they are down 2 scores we will gladly play the type of d that allows it.
Anyone who thinks we do the sand thing on these drives in a one score game is kidding themselves. That is why those scores are meaningless.


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[VrabelJr]

Garbage Time: I know it when I see it

 

[SlowGettingUp]

Garbage time is a bad term.
I look at it this way. When you have enough of a lead that playing conservative almost can't cost you the game allowing points in a low priority if you don't allow them quickly.
The end of Pitt and Indy are examples. We only cared (as we should have) about not letting them score QUICKLY. If they want to go on a long drive that consumes the clock when they are down 2 scores we will gladly play the type of d that allows it.
Anyone who thinks we do the sand thing on these drives in a one score game is kidding themselves. That is why those scores are meaningless.

The key (as you say) is when time becomes more important than yards.

I don't know the exact numbers, but if, when you give them say 8 yards and take say 30 seconds off the clock, your expected win percentage goes up instead of down, then you are in garbage time.

 

[Ring 6]

The key (as you say) is when time becomes more important than yards.

I don't know the exact numbers, but if, when you give them say 8 yards and take say 30 seconds off the clock, your expected win percentage goes up instead of down, then you are in garbage time.

Right. No defense ever lets the other team score. But if playing conservative is warranted and ensures a win and the other team wants to play conservative you will give up meaningless points and it is smart football.
Miami chose to try to be aggressive in garbage time and we got to the qb had a pick and could have had a few more. If they decided to play small ball against a conservative d they would have scored garbage points and our defense would have been just as good as it was except the garbage points would mask it.


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[Interception]

Which "negative" statistics were ignored?

The Pats are 11th in total yards allowed per game.. (A useless stat)
The Pats are 8th at points allowed per game at 17.
The Pats are 18th in total passing yards, having allowed 1745.
The Pats are 17th in passing yards per game allowed at 249.3
The Pats are tied for 15th with 11 Passing TDs allowed.
Opposing QBs have a rating of 86.2 which is good for 11th.
The Pats are 13th in total rushing yards allowed with 677.
The Pats are 7th in rushing yards per game at 96.7
They are tied for 10th at 4 rushing TDs allowed. (Note that 8 teams that they are either tied with or have allowed fewer also have only played in 6 games)

All the above haven't been ignored.. They just don't tell the WHOLE story about a team.
Furthermore, you ignore that this team has 26 sacks on the season, which is tied for first. They also have 26 QB hurries and 33 QB hits to go along with 41 Passes Defensed (good for 8th in the league). The Patriots have 8 interceptions (tied for 6th), 6 forced fumbles (14th) and 2 fumble recoveries.

But yeah, we're the one's ignoring statistics..

Dude. Face facts.. This team, which hasn't peaked yet, is well on it's way to being one of the best Belichick defenses and you made a stupid OP because you can't comprehend what stats mean something and what stats don't..

Only 3 of the 9 statistics you named are in the top 10... so how is my OP wrong? As far as statistics go, I was not wrong about this defense not being top 10. However, as I stated (and you ignored) in my last post, I have been pleasantly surprised and admit this defense is much better than I thought it would be... but of course you'll pick and choose quotes from my post and ignore the rest. Way to not mention any of the negative statistics either, like the 3rd down conversion rate mentioned earlier. Only 33% of your statistics were in the top ten. The defense as a whole may be hovering around 8th-12th right now (which is why I was pleasantly surprised), which is the important part, but as far as statistics go, it's not top 10. Red zone defense hasn't been too great either.

Say we're up by 3 with 3 minutes left in the super bowl against Rodgers. Will you really be that confident in this secondary? yes, we'll improve as the year goes on... but so will other teams.

Best defenses Belichick put together? Every superbowl team had a better defense. This one isn't in the top 3.

 

[Interception]

"Hey, you found negative stats? they're all meaningless. I found some good ones though, so I'll act like these mean something. I also know all these stats I'm naming show that we're not in the top 10, but your prediction about us not being top 10 makes you STOOPID TROLL"

If you say stats are meaningless, please do not refer to any of them.
This front 7 is much better than expected, it's covering up the holes in the secondary. however, we are one bad injury away from the defense falling apart. If Hightower or Collins go down, the front 7 takes a hit and the secondary gets exposed. Hightower was sorely missed in the game he didn't play in.
I don't see why everyone thinks we have great linebacker depth. Mayo hasn't been playing at all. Hell, Freeny has been more productive than Mayo. That's not depth, that's an injured player trying to work back (and there's no guarantee he'll recover). Mayo hasn't been getting any snaps... so what depth are you guys talking about? Are you still assuming Mayo can play like he did in 2012 and Belichick is just choosing not to play him? Be honest with yourselves.

You're all like the brainwashed people that blindly support our government with your "freedum!1!1!!" like no other country is free. Except you blindly support this team as if no other team can improve or expose this secondary as the year goes on. It's okay -- we'll wait for the first loss and see all the "DIS DEFENSE SUX" posts. Although I hope that day doesn't come this year. 19-0 would be nice.

 

[Bruins29]

Interception, please name the 10 teams that are ahead of the Pats in defense. Please be sure to give more weight to the important stats like points allowed obviously - Since that is a pretty important stat. Its a lot more important that passing yards allowed which is skewed since the Pats are usually up on teams and they are desperate to score points to come back late - While the Pats are smartly allowing them to march down the field to kill the clock.

Also, perhaps not having total confidence in the Pats CB position against the 2nd best QB in the game is a legit concern. However it has nothing to do with your original claim. Its a total strawman.

This to me just sounds like you were wrong. And instead of manning up and just admitting it, you are now moving the goalposts and trying to tap dance around the facts.

 

[JMC00]

If you are top 10 in points allowed, you're a top 10 defense. Right now New England is 8th and they are 11th in yards allowed.

So as @Bruins29 said right now you are moving goalposts and tap dancing around.

 

[RobertWeathers]

If you are top 10 in points allowed, you're a top 10 defense. Right now New England is 8th and they are 11th in yards allowed.

So as @Bruins29 said right now you are moving goalposts and tap dancing around.

Are you saying Top 10 figuratively or numerically?

Ask yourself if the 2010 and 2011 defenses were really top 10.

 

[JMC00]

Are you saying Top 10 figuratively or numerically?

Ask yourself if the 2010 and 2011 defenses were really top 10.

No clue why you added 2011 in there. They weren't a top 10 scoring defense.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I think their defense is better than their rankings because they have become almost exclusively a sub package game plan team that concedes different things depending upon the opponent and situation. They will let a team run amok if it keeps the QB from beating them and they will give up the middle at times to take away the long ball. And as noted they give up a lot of garbage yards and points. This is a good defense that should be really good by the end of the season, and if they continue to play the way they did against the fish out will be really hard for anyone to beat them.

 

[RobertWeathers]

No clue why you added 2011 in there. They weren't a top 10 scoring defense.

I put them both in there because they
were sub standard pass defenses and very average on 3rd down and in the red zone.

Was the 2010 D better than 2011's? Not really.

 

[DaBruinz]

Only 3 of the 9 statistics you named are in the top 10... so how is my OP wrong? As far as statistics go, I was not wrong about this defense not being top 10. However, as I stated (and you ignored) in my last post, I have been pleasantly surprised and admit this defense is much better than I thought it would be... but of course you'll pick and choose quotes from my post and ignore the rest. Way to not mention any of the negative statistics either, like the 3rd down conversion rate mentioned earlier. Only 33% of your statistics were in the top ten. The defense as a whole may be hovering around 8th-12th right now (which is why I was pleasantly surprised), which is the important part, but as far as statistics go, it's not top 10. Red zone defense hasn't been too great either.

Say we're up by 3 with 3 minutes left in the super bowl against Rodgers. Will you really be that confident in this secondary? yes, we'll improve as the year goes on... but so will other teams.

Best defenses Belichick put together? Every superbowl team had a better defense. This one isn't in the top 3.

Your OP is WRONG because the season isn't over you moron. It's not even HALF-WAY.
The "stats" that matter are WINS and POINTS ALLOWED. Last I looked, the Pats are 7-0 and they are 8th with 17 PPG allowed.

BTW, Could you show me where your original post mentioned ANYTHING about 3rd down conversion rate or Red Zone Conversion rate? OH WAIT. No. You can't. Why? Because you added them in a vain attempt to hold on to your pathetic argument. OH.. And 3rd Down % can be misleading. The Texans currently have the BEST 3rd down Defense allowing only 26 of 89 attempts. But they're considered the worse defense in the league. The Titans, Browns, Chargers, and Seahawks are also top 10 in 3rd down defense, but also all have losing records..

The Pats Opponents have had 66 possessions. They've resulted in 15 TDs (11 pass/4 rush) and 8 FGs. So, opponents have scoring on 23 of 66 possessions..

Furthermore, there are 12 teams that have only played 6 games. So those teams have an advantage, currently. In fact, until all the teams have had their bye, the stats will be skewed each week. In fact, after this week, some teams will have played 8 games, while most will have played just 7..

I didn't ignore anything you said. You being pleasantly surprised is irrelevant to the conversation. The rest of your post was blathering BS. I chose what was relevant. The bold-faced LIE that you told. Your CLAIM that people were ignoring stats. No. They weren't. They were going with the ones that matter. They weren't like you, cherry picking ones and thumping your chest as if you entire argument was correct..

Remember you said "They will be in the 20s in everything but scoring" All but 2 of their stats are better than that already and the Defense has improved each week..

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Sunday NFL Thoughts: Garbage Time, Cameron Wake, and Stork vs Andrews

Here are the points where the Patriots achieved 99% chance of victory:

Steelers: 10:21 left in the 4th quarter

Bills: 4:15 left in the 3rd quarter

Jaguars: 0:36 left in the 2nd quarter

Cowboys: 9:55 left in the 3rd quarter

Colts: 12:56 left in the 4th quarter

Jets: 1:18 left in the 4th quarter

Dolphins: 0:29 left in the 2nd quarter

This means that the Patriots have spent 30.1% of their games in garbage time, and this is where they've allowed 47.4% of their points. You can draw your own conclusions, but you would expect the percentage of garbage time to be equal to the percentage of points allowed if you believed garbage time doesn't matter. The Patriots don't actually have the best defense in the league, but they're a perfect complement to the offense, and that is exactly what is needed.