Will this defense be top ten? (hint: no)

[Joker]

You must have not watched the game.

 

[supafly]

30-20 with 2:30 left last week was absolutely garbage time.

Yeah, that didn't happen.

 

[supafly]

You must have not watched the game.

I don't know if you're quoting him or me.

Like I said and you just showed from the recap, The score was 23-20 with a little more than a minute to play.

When the opposition has a chance to tie and send it to OT on the last play, it's not what most refer to as meaningless, or garbage time. I can guarantee that our coach and players don't see it that way.

 

[Oswlek]

I don't know if you're quoting him or me.

Like I said and you just showed from the recap, The score was 23-20 with a little more than a minute to play.

When the opposition has a chance to tie and send it to OT on the last play, it's not what most refer to as meaningless, or garbage time. I can guarantee that our coach and players don't see it that way.

It was 30-20, not 23-20, and the Jets were out of timeouts. Whether you call it "garbage time" or not, NE clearly switched to a prevent defense.

 

[supafly]

It was 30-20, not 23-20, and the Jets were out of timeouts. Whether you call it "garbage time" or not, NE clearly switched to a prevent defense.

Are you trying to tell me that the score of the game wasn't 23-20 Pats with a little more than a minute remaining (about 1:15)?

There are many things that could've happened in that last 75 seconds, and the NYJ had a chance to tie it on the last play. If we need to remind ourselves that they played some GTFB scheme to puff our chests a bit, fine, but when a team has the opportunity to tie and send it to OT on the last play of any game, I don't consider it meaningless.

 

[Joker]

have no idea what your point is...the Pats took the ball at 5 and half minutes, drove the field and scored with a minute and a half left, making it 30-20. The Jets never had a chance. They DID get the onside kick after scoring a FG but you must be kidding if you think they had any shot at scoring a game tying touchdown with 18 seconds left after the onside kick recovery.

 

[supafly]

have no idea what your point is...the Pats took the ball at 5 and half minutes, drove the field and scored with a minute and a half left, making it 30-20. The Jets never had a chance. They DID get the onside kick after scoring a FG but you must be kidding if you think they had any shot at scoring a game tying touchdown with 18 seconds left after the onside kick recovery.

The "point" is that the poster who quoted me claiming that it was 30-20 with 2:30 left isn't correct. That never happened. It was still a 3 point game with 1:15 remaining.

It's also that no matter how little you think the odds were of the Jets tying the game on a Hail Mary at the end, any game that gives that opportunity isn't defining "meaningless" garbage time in a traditional sense. That's really pushing the term in my opinion, that's all.

 

[Oswlek]

Are you trying to tell me that the score of the game wasn't 23-20 Pats with a little more than a minute remaining (about 1:15)?

There are many things that could've happened in that last 75 seconds, and the NYJ had a chance to tie it on the last play. If we need to remind ourselves that they played some GTFB scheme to puff our chests a bit, fine, but when a team has the opportunity to tie and send it to OT on the last play of any game, I don't consider it meaningless.

I'm confused, Sup. What relevance does the 23-20 score have to how NE played defense on NY's next possession? I don't see anyone claiming garbage time began earlier than Gronk's TD, do you? It's also demonstrable fact that the Patriots played defense from that point on as if it were garbage time, so they clearly thought it was.

I understand your hesitancy with using that term, but given how unlikely NY's odds of winning were and the defensive tactics chosen, it fits that situation.

 

[supafly]

I'm confused, Sup. What relevance does the 23-20 score have to how NE played defense on NY's next possession? I don't see anyone claiming garbage time began earlier than Gronk's TD, do you? It's also demonstrable fact that the Patriots played defense from that point on as if it were garbage time, so they clearly thought it was.

I understand your hesitancy with using that term, but given how unlikely NY's odds of winning were and the defensive tactics chosen, it fits that situation.

The original point was that the term was being overused a bit--yes, as demonstrated by the fact that it was a close 3 point game with a little over a minute remaining.

I then had a poster try to school me on a scenario that didn't occur, (30-20 with 2:30 left), and another who posted the exact same thing I just said yet sarcastically claimed that "I didn't watch the game."

If we're so desperate for NextGen stats and win probability ratios that we're actually going to include :20 or :30 seconds of a relatively close, one score game as garbage time, so be it.

That doesn't change the fact that "garbage time" has traditionally meant backup players and games that are clearly out of reach. I don't agree with including the NYJ scenario in that category, for obvious reasons. To each his own.

 

[Oswlek]

That doesn't change the fact that "garbage time" has traditionally meant backup players and games that are clearly out of reach. I don't agree with including the NYJ scenario in that category, for obvious reasons. To each his own.

I hear you, particularly on the time and backup variables. That said, NY's win probability was roughly the same in that situation as Miami's in the final five minutes of yesterday's game and NE made a significant schematic adjustment so the other side has merit, IMO.

 

[supafly]

I hear you, particularly on the time and backup variables. That said, NY's win probability was roughly the same in that situation as Miami's in the final five minutes of yesterday's game and NE made a significant schematic adjustment so the other side has merit, IMO.

I understand. As a matter of fact I mentioned to JMC00 that I found the stats not only helpful, but quite relevant. I am just drawing a line where I think that applies, and some homers seem to think that means that I want to piss on their parade. That isn't true.

I simply stated that I thought we were throwing out the term a bit loosely, that's all. Perhaps I am just a bit more old school in this regard, since I did not see backup players and an out of reach score in last week's game? At any rate, there's a bit of difference in opinions and we've exhausted the conversation about as far as it can go.

 

[Soul_Survivor88]

Excellent info CEO.

Did your info source list how many minutes of total game time fall into the 99% likelihood of victory?

I think the 99% likelihood of victory is based on the specifics of the game itself (minutes left + scoring differential between teams) so "garbage time" would need to be calculated on a case-by-case basis.

 

[Triumph]

Best front 7 since the days of Bruschi, Seymour, McGinest, etc. Malcom Brown is making plays out there already. The back 4 are playing great as well.

Reminds me more of a NY Giants type defense that always attacking.

 

[DarrylS]

The eyeball test from my couch is that we have a very good defense, the best that I have seen in a long time..

Statistics do not tell the whole story, 7 of the 13 Dolphins drives were 3 or 4 downs.. that is impressive as Miami has been on an offensive roll..

 

[supafly]

I think the 99% likelihood of victory is based on the specifics of the game itself (minutes left + scoring differential between teams) so "garbage time" would need to be calculated on a case-by-case basis.

Win probability is a nice tool to use. I see it all the time during live, in-game betting, as the odds change based on that aspect alone.

It is however, far from foolproof, or a lot of people would simply take the easy money on the straight up money line every single time (no spread).

I find it interesting that last night, which was actual garbage time, saw the team continue to effectively send 4, even 5 guys at times, and play some man coverage, so I'd be interested in going back and reviewing the previous game film. I did not see this suggestion of automatic prevent defense in all of our games this year. I think that is something that the fans exaggerate a bit in certain instances.

 

[supafly]

The eyeball test from my couch is that we have a very good defense, the best that I have seen in a long time..

Statistics do not tell the whole story, 7 of the 13 Dolphins drives were 3 or 4 downs.. that is impressive as Miami has been on an offensive roll..

Yes, that's the most important aspect to take away, the fact that the defense appears to be quite capable of scheming and executing to levels of success.

 

[Angelpats]

Secondary getting better each game too. Letting them play and learn is all they need. This is not like previous years when we are leaving guys wide open, this group competes every down. Sometimes there is a mixup but they compete and the longer they play together the better. That's why I say there is not need to trade for an overpriced CB. I understand getting backup if someone gets dinged but I have faith in these guy. This was the hottest offense last two weeks, big play after big play. Don't even say they played bad teams either because before this game started a lot of people were scared of the dolphins and some predicted an upset. Give these guys their due.

 

[DarrylS]

Any criticism of the secondary has to take into account that last nite was Butler's 9th start and Coleman was playing in his 7th game, so every game is learning experience for those guys..

The most encouraging part of this is that Butler is not experiencing a second year slump, and is progressing instead of regressing as has happened in the past for some or our DB's..

 

[Huckleberry1]

I don't know if you're quoting him or me.

Like I said and you just showed from the recap, The score was 23-20 with a little more than a minute to play.

When the opposition has a chance to tie and send it to OT on the last play, it's not what most refer to as meaningless, or garbage time. I can guarantee that our coach and players don't see it that way.

They really didn't have a chance to score, Bowles admitted after the game it took two plays because Fitzpatrick's arm wasnt strong enough to get it to the end zone and they were unable to get two plays off. Was it humanly possible, yes, but the Patriots weren't facing themselves.

 

[PatriotsReign]

Hint: Yes, they will be top 10.