I really don't see us doing much in FA this off season. It is hard to even speculate until we determine what to do with our own FA's and contract issues. If Vince gets cut, then clearly FA will be the place to find his immediate replacement. The same goes for Connolly, Mayo, and Ammendola, if things don't get worked out with them. If all 4 stay, the Pats should see cap relief in the neighborhood of $10MM this year..
Here are the problems with potential FA's
1. We are not going to get any of the top guys at their positions. First we don't have the cap room, and secondly, its not consistent with our basic philosophy to do so, even if we did have the room. (Revis being the exception that proves the rule)
2. Boling and Carpenter are experience names with decent reputations, but in the end how much difference in production would they make over Flemming, Kline, Connolly, Wendell, and a high draft pick. Neither is and "elite" impact player. They COULD be better, but by how much?
3. Vareen's cap # last season was just over a million. My guess is the Pats would be willing to go as high as $2.5MM, which for most folks would be a nice raise. Unfortunately He's likely to see something in the 3-4MM/yr range. Financially if the difference is around $500,000, it makes sense for him to stay, given the playoff $ and the media attention and what that brings. However if it starts to get over a Million/yr more, then he has to make the move. Question is will other teams pay that much for a good receiver who has been a bit of a disappoint as a runner this year. 11 catches in the Superbowl was nice, but he didn't make hardly anyone miss, and was always brought down by the first guy to hit him.
4. I felt for sure that Ridley is a goner, but the more likely that it seems Vareen will go, the more likely it is that it seems he will be back. Coming off the ACL, he's not going to get much more that a vet minimum/incentive laden "prove it" deal from the rest of league, anyway. It might as well be here, and doesn't hurt that he loves it here.
5. All the WR junkies should note that even if Amendola is released due to cap needs, Dobson, could readily take his place, although with a different set of skills. Those who now summarily dismiss him should be aware that while Dobson's rookie numbers weren't noteworthy, they were the best any rookie WR had put up in the BB era, and when you compare them to say, Dez Bryant's you'd find them VERY comparable. Bryant only had about 40yds more receiving yds,(510-544) while Dobson averaged 2 yds more per catch..(14-12).
The kid was never really healthy last season, and when he was finally ready to play, he was too far behind to earn the snaps.....and then he got hurt again. If he come back fully healthy and determined, I don't see why he wouldn't earn a spot in a WR rotation, and make Amendola a lot easier to let go, and then keep Boyce on the roster or PS as a much cheaper Edelman back up. There really isn't a need for a FA WR, or high end draft pick.
6. If Vince goes, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats make a strong run at Henry Melton - He was a plus player before his ACL injury, who had a very mediocre year coming off it. Often it takes until the 2nd year for a player to come 100% back. He could be worth a deal that only pays him big money if he earns it. and lowers Vince's cap slot by 4 Million for 2015.
