Just a couple of comments since this is so early.
Thanks for the detailed comments, Ken. I'll address some of them individually, some as a group. I'll jump around a bit, too.
7. DL and OL are my only MUST haves in this draft. After that, I'd be all in on a high risk, high reward strategy going after guys coming off injuries, small school guys, and "character risks" And if we don't find someone we really like, trade the pick out another year even if you don't get full value.
4,. Initially I was all in on drafting the top OLman on the board with our first pick regardless of whether we trade up, down or stay at 32. But watching Vince get pushed around Saturday kind of scared me a bit. I have great hopes for Easley, but he's not an anchor type guy. I'm also not one who thinks we need a LOT of players this draft, so if you think we need to get into the low 20's to get a guy like Goldman or Phillips, I'd be all for it. If we can find a quality starter in the 4th round, I can realistically expect we can find one in the 2nd or 3rd.. But make no mistake, I want to find an OL starter in this draft.
5. Goldman sounds awesome, but if Phillips shows he can stay low off the snap and has good knee bend to go along with that power, explosion and athleticism, I'm all in on him. The way the game's played today, a 6'6 guy in the middle with long arms is very attractive to me.
6. As for a FA interior offensive linemen, I'll get back to you after I read more about them. I'd have to be very sure that the guy I'm replacing Connolly will be a significant upgrade before I give him starter FA money. If Bolling truly is that kind of guy, then I'd be all for it. It would make HAVING to get that OL starter in the draft a little less pressing.
My priority in this offseason is building both lines, primarily through the draft. I would look at offensive skill players (and DBs) on day 3, and possibly in FA if the values are within our price range. I thought I would at least explore the option that the Pats might be able to address some needs in free agency, not with big money targets but with mid-range guys in the Browner/LaFell contract range. I don't know if that will be feasible or if the right opportunities will be there, but I thought it was worth tossing out. I think that BB generally likes to plug holes in FA so that he doesn't go in to the draft with urgent needs.
I think Connolly is nearing the end of his tenure as a starter. He could be back, but I don't have confidence that he can hold up as a starter, and I think an upgrade is needed at LG. Asking a rookie to step in right away is tough, so I could see going for a veteran if they are available within range. Boling is a VERY good pulling guard. Probably a long shot, but something to explore.
I think the OL class is very deep, and I think that the Pats can get 2 very good linemen on day 2 and early day 3, even if they don't address the position in FA. I really like guys like Jeremiah Poutasi (think Mike Iupati) and Jake Fisher (think Kyle Long) on day 2, and guys like Jarvis Harrison, Donovan Smith, Robert Myles and Laken Tomlinson late day 2/early day 3.
I think that 2015 will be Wilfork's last year, and I'm not even certain that he'll be back - $9M is an awful lot to pay, I don't see him taking a pay cut, and I don't want to push any money further out in the future on a guy who on the downturn of a great career. Getting a long term successor would be my highest priority, along with interior OL; DE would be just as important if Ayers is not re-signed, and I firmly believe in the value of rotation. I'm fine with any of Goldman, Brown and Phillips, and I doubt my final order will be set until after the Combine. I'm also warming to the idea (if Wilfork is not back for 2015, or if Branch is not re-signed) of doubling up on DT with an early pick plus East Carolina's Terry Williams late, especially if BB picks up an extra late round pick.
2; Sorry that Vacarro isn't going to happen now that Chung has been resigned. I'm not sure I get all your interest in him, but I don't really know anything about the kid except how well he was thought of in the draft and how far he's fallen in the Saints eyes. I STILL don't see the need for SS types. I think in today's NFL you are looking for CB/S hybrids, rather than S/LB hyprids.
I think instead of looking for that prototype SS, I'm thinking it would be easier and cheaper to find that 225-235 LB with blazing speed like Cassilas who can be used in certain packages AND on ST's But that;s just me.
I always considered Vaccaro a long shot, but again, I thought it was an idea worth floating. While I think he would have been a stud in the role I envision, I'm actually pretty content with Chung/Wilson/Ebner.
To respond to your statement which I've bolded, I don't see much of a role for a traditional SS, either. But I think the "star" or "stud" DB position is one of the most important in a hybrid sub defense that I envision evolving.
I think the Pats will play a multi-front hybrid defense, but I think that as long as the current rules favor the passing game, that we will see more and more domination by "sub" sets with 5 or more DBs. The game is played more in space than ever before, and being able to combat that is paramount. The Pats were in sub for almost 75% of the defensive snaps this year.
I think that being able to play the entire game in sub and still stop the run is kind of a Holy Grail goal for the offense. To achieve this, you need a quality "star" or "stud" DB. The main roles of this DB as I see it merge those of a S (both free and strong), slot CB, and coverage/blitz LB, and include run support, functioning zone coverage, blitzing, covering TEs and RBs out of the backfield, and playing as a slot CB. I don't see this player as being a boundary (outside) CB, or being more than adequate as a deep safety. But I think that this player is paramount in helping to limit the run and to help take away the middle of the field, forcing teams to go outside against the strength of our CBs. Most coverage LBs can do some of this, but few are really quick enough to play slot CB, or to line up as a deep S and drop down as a robber. Traditional SSs don't have the skill set, either.
Vaccaro can do all of those things, and excel at them. I think - and have discussed elsewhere - that Tavon Wilson also has many of these skills and had experience playing most of these roles in college, which is why BB "reached" for him in the 2nd round. Pat Chung has most of them, and experience playing a hybrid DB "roverback" position when he was at Oregon. Nate Ebner has the raw athleticism, but his skills are still limited in coverage; he seems to be developing better as a pure LB/S hybrid so far. But I'm reasonably content with that combination for now. But because I think that position is so important, I was open to an upgrade if Vaccaro was available.
In keeping with that general direction, I also favor picking up a rotational DE who can play in space. In the past I was more focused on a "jumbo" DE who could play LDE in a 4-3 Under, DE in a 3-4, or move inside in sub packages. But I'm probably more interested in a more athletic and explosive variation of Ninkovich at the moment - someone who can set the edge and rush the passer, but also who excels in space. That's why I'm so interested in guys like Danielle Hunter, Bud Dupree and Max Valles. Valles in particular I think could become a Jamie Collins kind of player with his combination of explosivenes and ability to excel in space.
3. I loved most of your cap saving ideas and understand how a "Sanders-like" Royal would be attractive. However we are just now getting a glimpse of why the Pats brought in Amendola. (actually we got a full glimpse in the first Bills game, but most have forgotten). IF we can get his contract down to the $2MM range I'd like to keep him. He does a lot of little things like blocking and adds a lot of depth to ST's as well as WR.
I REALLY want to bring this entire receiver "band" back and see what another year together will bring. There is enough size speed and quickness in the guys we have now. Draft your red shirt guy late, but I think that between LaFell, Edelman, Amendola, Tyms, Dobson, Boyce, Wright, Gronk, give us a quality receiver group that is young enough to build upon for Brady's last 3 years . That being said, if they can't rework DA's contract, cut the bum and do your Royal thing.
Amendola's showing in the divisional game against Baltimore certainly argues for another year. Clearly he can produce when given the chance. Some of his numbers were due to being caught in a numbers game as the #3 WR when the Pats played far fewer 3 WR sets than in previous years. I wouldn't be averse to having him back for one more year if his contract can be re-worked. As far as your statement which I've bolded, last year I had exactly the same hope regarding Amendola/Dobson/Thompkins/Boyce, who combined for a grand total of 36 receptions for 291 yards and 1 TD in the regular season. I'd like a little more productivity from the back end of the receiver group, no matter who. I'm all in favor of bringing in some late round draft competition as well. I love the depth at WR in this draft, and feel that there will be some really good players available in the late rounds.
Whatever happens, it will be fun to see how things play out. We're blessed to have such a talented, deep, and stable team with so many players totally committed and aligned in terms of their priorities. The apparent melt-down in Denver is another reminder of how special this organization is.
