Semi-OT: Houston releases OL Brennan Williams

[mayoclinic]

From NFL.com:

The Houston Texans have released offensive tackle Brennan Williams. Williams, the 89th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft, was waived with the failed physical designation on Monday, according to ESPN Boston. Williams didn't play a snap as a rookie after undergoing microfracture surgery on his knee.

Texans general manager Rick Smith would probably pay good money to mind erase last year's third round. The team's other pick in the third, defensive end Sam Montgomery, was released in October after violating team rules at a hotel in Kansas City.

The reasons behind Williams' release are far less salacious. Still, parting ways with two top 100 picks in a year represents a significant organizational failure.

Brennan Williams released by Houston Texans - NFL.com

It should be noted that BB was widely derided for "reaching" for Duron Harmon with the 92nd pick in the 3rd round in the 2013 draft, sandwiched neatly in-between Williams at 89 and Montgomery at 95. Harmon goes to training camp in his second year as the favorite for a starting job opposite Devin McCourty. Josh Boyce at 102 in the 4th round was also drafted in the same vicinity, and has a chance to became the Pats' kickoff returner and perhaps more. Late 3rd/early 4th round picks are far from a sure thing.

 

[Brady6]

From NFL.com:



http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000367044/article/texans-release-thirdround-pick-brennan-williams

It should be noted that BB was widely derided for "reaching" for Duron Harmon with the 92nd pick in the 3rd round in the 2013 draft, sandwiched neatly in-between Williams at 89 and Montgomery at 95. Harmon goes to training camp in his second year as the favorite for a starting job opposite Devin McCourty. Josh Boyce at 102 in the 4th round was also drafted in the same vicinity, and has a chance to became the Pats' kickoff returner and perhaps more. Late 3rd/early 4th round picks are far from a sure thing.

Microfracture surgery is a devastating surgery; very few players seem to return to their previous form.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Yes Mayo. My daughter used to try that on me. Comparing herself to kids failing in school to make herself look good.

 

[mayoclinic]

Yes Mayo. My daughter used to try that on me. Comparing herself to kids failing in school to make herself look good.

????

Not comparing at all. I just said that late 3rd/early 4th round picks aren't a sure thing, and that we should temper expectations about guys like Harmon, Boyce, and (for 2014) Bryan Stork. The draft's a crapshoot, and hindsight's always 20-20. FWIW, I liked both Montgomery and Williams in 2013. Heck, I was elated when we signed Armond Armstead. You win some, you lose some.

 

[PatFanCraig]

I thought Montgomery was garbage. I liked Williams. A good athlete and a hard worker in ever department. TAnd he really had a good feel for poditioning and how to use length. The Harmon pick was flamed because of Allen. Harmon however has flashed. His floor seems pretty high. But his ceiling is higher than many thought. He plays to his 4.51 at the least,while showing a nice closing burst. He played some fs and corner without looking bad. So he could end up being really good in coverage for a SS. He also has nice size at 6'1 while looking bigger than he did in college at 199lbs. He could be on of the most respected SS's in the league. Not saying he will but its very realistic he could.

 

[BritPat]

Big fan of the kid, sign the beast!

 

[patchick]

????

Not comparing at all. I just said that late 3rd/early 4th round picks aren't a sure thing, and that we should temper expectations about guys like Harmon, Boyce, and (for 2014) Bryan Stork. The draft's a crapshoot, and hindsight's always 20-20.

If nothing else, Harmon's a good illustration that how much the fan base screams, curses and cries "reach!!!" is worthless as a predictor of how well a pick will pan out.

 

[Danger Zone]

????

Not comparing at all. I just said that late 3rd/early 4th round picks aren't a sure thing, and that we should temper expectations about guys like Harmon, Boyce, and (for 2014) Bryan Stork. The draft's a crapshoot, and hindsight's always 20-20. FWIW, I liked both Montgomery and Williams in 2013. Heck, I was elated when we signed Armond Armstead. You win some, you lose some.

It varies from study to study, but I believe 3rd round picks have a 65% to 75% chance of being a bust.. despite the amount of scrutiny and energy these teams direct towards these college players.

 

[Danger Zone]

If nothing else, Harmon's a good illustration that how much the fan base screams, curses and cries "reach!!!" is worthless as a predictor of how well a pick will pan out.

Or to the effectiveness of Confirmation Bias and blind ego.

There were many fans criticizing the Easley pick as being an obvious reach... and they only relunctantly relaxed their stance after the numerous reports about Easley being the target pick of the Super Bowl winning Seahawks..

Even then most of them simply morphed a bit and are simply pretending that they feel he's just too much of a "reach" due to him being an injury risk.

To be fair, I waited for similiar reports to come out about Tavron Wilson.. but nothing ever was forthcoming. Its certainly fair I think to clearly label that pick as a reach.

 

[BradyFTW!]

If nothing else, Harmon's a good illustration that how much the fan base screams, curses and cries "reach!!!" is worthless as a predictor of how well a pick will pan out.

I think it's most of the same people who spent 5+ years hating on James Sanders for merely being a league-average starting safety. Once you get past the 2nd round, anyone who becomes a competent starter for any significant period of time is a hit.

 

[patchick]

To be fair, I waited for similiar reports to come out about Tavron Wilson.. but nothing ever was forthcoming. Its certainly fair I think to clearly label that pick as a reach.

I think it's fair to label Wilson as a "lousy draft pick." The fact that he was called a "reach" at draft day doesn't mean that being a "reach" is the REASON he was a lousy pick. If you went with draft-day labels as causation, you'd also have to say that Sebastian Vollmer was a great pick because he was a "reach," and Rob Gronkowski was a great pick because he was an "injury red flag," and Chad Jackson was a lousy pick because he was a "steal."

This may sounds like empty semantics, but I think it's important. A while back I tallied up the Patriots' past draft results based on whether they were labeled reach, steal, or fair value, and determined that those draft-day labels had NO predictive value in terms of the players' success.

If you say "Wilson was a reach according to published draft rankings, and he was a bust," and conclude from that the in the future you have to adhere to published draft rankings, then you're wasting your time focusing on the wrong factors.

 

[mayoclinic]

I think it's fair to label Wilson as a "lousy draft pick."

From Devin McCourty today, FWIW:

McCourty did have quite a bit to say about his teammates, some of whom will be fighting for a place on the roster like Tavon Wilson. Wilson has played sparingly for the Patriots, falling in and out of favor with the coaches over his two seasons in New England. But this has been a big offseason for him, according to McCourty.

"Yeah, I’m excited for him," he said. "I think sometimes guys get killed from the outside view and they’re still putting in the work. That’s why I’m excited. Tavon never budged at any second and just got down on himself and stopped working. This offseason in the spring time he’s been working incredibly hard just to get out there and play more. I think that’s his focus, just to get better as a football player and helping the team as much as possible, so it’s an exciting time for him coming into training camp.

"Each year guys come in and it’s a new year," he said. "You have new opportunities, new chances to get out there and play more. He’s just one of those guys that have come in here and I think he’s put himself in pretty good position to come in here and compete and try to get on the field."

http://www.boston.com/sports/footba...rty_says_contract_status_not_a_big_deal.html

I was never a fan of the Wilson pick (I don't think anyone was) and he hasn't done much in 2 seasons. This year he either makes a leap or he's gone, IMO, and I'd personally bet on the second option. But it's just remotely possible that it may be too soon to call him a "lousy draft pick". Then again, given that we passed up Lavonte David, it was probably a lousy draft pick, no matter what happens.

 

[Kontradiction]

If nothing else, Harmon's a good illustration that how much the fan base screams, curses and cries "reach!!!" is worthless as a predictor of how well a pick will pan out.

It's about even. The fanbase cried "reach!!!" with Vollmer and he's our second best OL, when healthy. The fanbase also cried "reach!!!" with Tavon Wilson, and he's been about as useless as tits on a bull.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

I never understood that. If bulls had tits you could get milk from them. That's useful. Not that I would want the job. Maybe that's it.

 

[Danger Zone]

I think it's fair to label Wilson as a "lousy draft pick." The fact that he was called a "reach" at draft day doesn't mean that being a "reach" is the REASON he was a lousy pick. If you went with draft-day labels as causation, you'd also have to say that Sebastian Vollmer was a great pick because he was a "reach," and Rob Gronkowski was a great pick because he was an "injury red flag," and Chad Jackson was a lousy pick because he was a "steal."

This may sounds like empty semantics, but I think it's important. A while back I tallied up the Patriots' past draft results based on whether they were labeled reach, steal, or fair value, and determined that those draft-day labels had NO predictive value in terms of the players' success.

If you say "Wilson was a reach according to published draft rankings, and he was a bust," and conclude from that the in the future you have to adhere to published draft rankings, then you're wasting your time focusing on the wrong factors.

Well, by "reach" I personally mean the assumption that the player could have been had for a later draft pick.

Id be highly surprised if there was any predictive value to what the majority of the masses cry and yell about.

I think there's a chance that a few fans would approach ok to average luck in picking draft picks that are ultimately successful in the NFL by playing it safe (as long as we remember to have them choose picks that are still on the board).

But I trust Belichick to know better than anyone here (yes, despite a 4 year draft drought that doesnt take into consideration the fact that we forfeited and lost a first round pick and a draft drought that wont take into consideration the acquisitions of Moss and Welker for a 4th and 2nd) which players he feels will best help his team should they be able to make the transition into the NFL.

Mayb he's wrong to do so, but there's little doubt in my mind that Belichick takes the overall lockerroom chemistry into consideration and maybe any particular player's ability to accept his style of coaching... something I guarantee no fan ever takes into consideration except in extreme cases of certain players in certain positions.. ie qb.. ie Manziel.

 

[PatFanCraig]

I never liked Wilson or Hightower in 2012. I liked David/Wagner/Burfict/Kendricks better. While I don't keep official logs I believe I liked wagner best. Burfict/David evenly. As for Harmon my first reaction was isn't he a Tavon clone. Now, I like him better than first rounder Buchanan in many ways. and as much ormore than Pryor/clinton I actually like him as much as Nix and more than Pryor. Harmon played corner for us and fit right in. That gives plenty of evidence he will be top flight in coverage for a as with experience. He has top SS speed and range. His closing burst has seemed to even surprise Bill himself. His tackling reliability has improved dramatically and with more experience and coaching by seasons end will be as reliable a tackler as there is at SS. He is 6'1 and seems every bit as big as haha or even 6'1 212 Buchanan. And he has made some jarring wow hits himself. His coverage/range/instincts/tackling are every bit as good haha's maybe better. After year he had for us and ability shown even at nickel corner and centerfield fs along with improved tacking since college,had he been able to magically enter the 2014 draft again he would have been a first rounder! His ceiling is every bit as high as haha/Pryor/Buchanan.

 

[Danger Zone]

I never liked Wilson or Hightower in 2012. I liked David/Wagner/Burfict/Kendricks better. While I don't keep official logs I believe I liked wagner best. Burfict/David evenly

I know you werent insinuating otherwise, but Wagner was taken the pick before the Patriots in the 2nd.

Belichick might have loved Wagner but didnt have the option to take him unless he prophestized the Seahawks taking him one pick before and he traded up to take Wagner before them.

Thats the insidious and much underestimated effect of drafting in an average Drafting position of 26th for 14 years.

 

[Deus Irae]

If nothing else, Harmon's a good illustration that how much the fan base screams, curses and cries "reach!!!" is worthless as a predictor of how well a pick will pan out.

I think it's fair to label Wilson as a "lousy draft pick." The fact that he was called a "reach" at draft day doesn't mean that being a "reach" is the REASON he was a lousy pick. If you went with draft-day labels as causation, you'd also have to say that Sebastian Vollmer was a great pick because he was a "reach," and Rob Gronkowski was a great pick because he was an "injury red flag," and Chad Jackson was a lousy pick because he was a "steal."

This may sounds like empty semantics, but I think it's important. A while back I tallied up the Patriots' past draft results based on whether they were labeled reach, steal, or fair value, and determined that those draft-day labels had NO predictive value in terms of the players' success.

If you say "Wilson was a reach according to published draft rankings, and he was a bust," and conclude from that the in the future you have to adhere to published draft rankings, then you're wasting your time focusing on the wrong factors.

Wilson was a lousy pick. Wilson was a reach. Vollmer was a steal. Dennard was a steal, too.

People here like to act as if these sorts of claims are magically invalid when they are used about Patriots players (only when used in a negative light, of course), but they aren't.

Yes, Wilson was a lousy draft pick because he was a reach (especially since he was a reach who's busted to this point). If he'd have been taken in round 6, or even round 5, it would have been a worthwhile gamble.

 

[PatFanCraig]

There were other LBs than Hightower/Wagner. David/Burfict/Kendricks all outplaying Hightower as well. Had nothing to do with where we we picked. Could have drafted Wagner in Round One if he really liked him. I just felt Hightower was to similar to Spikes who I wasn't a fan of.

 

[patchick]

Wilson was a lousy pick. Wilson was a reach. Vollmer was a steal.

I think you have to either declare "steals" and "reaches" on draft day OR after the results become clear, not both. Because the meanings of the terms shift.

On draft day, a draft "steal" is a player who slipped to a lower draft point than most analysts predicted based on his talents, allowing a team to secure his rights with an attractively cheap pick.

Three years later, a draft "steal" is a player whose performance has far exceeded what you'd expect from his draft position.

If you mix the two assessments they either become nonsense -- Vollmer was a reach and a steal! -- or just another way of saying "good picks" and "bad picks."