Belichick Can't Have Much Faith In The Kids

[supafly]

1. Dobson had a VERY good season for a rookie receiver. He improved every week until he was injured and showed some real development with Brady. In the Pittsburgh and Miami games, Dobson was regularly making back shoulder catches.

I think the Alshon Jeffrey comparison is a very real one. Both are size/speed guys and had almost identical numbers at the combine and were known for having great hands in college. If Dobson puts in the work, he could very well be a 1,000 yard receiver next season. I am not saying he is gonna be Alshon and catch 90 balls for 1400yds, too many other targets, but I could envision 60 catches for 1100 yards and 6 or 8 TDs.

2. LaFell might have improved, but he is a possession receiver who has struggled with drops. Those do not mix. I like LaFell, but I think Thompkins and Boyce might have a higher ceiling.

You had me up until the last sentence. To each his own. It's obviously a difference of opinions. I don't think that both of Thompkins/Boyce even make the team unless we experience an injury or two. The odds of all 3 rookies making the team are not too good from the law of averages alone, especially since we've addressed the position with better talent.

For what it's worth to you, Aaron Dobson's "improvement" ended up equating to 18 catches for the last 3 months of the season from mid-October to mid-January. If you think that showed great skill, more power to you. I think he looked like exactly what he was, which is a 2nd round pick who obviously has some talent, but couldn't seem to parlay that into Brady's trust on a consistent level. The fact that he's also battled some injuries is another matter. He ended up having a nice peak before the bye, and hopefully that is something to build on. I agree that he obviously has upside. Whether or not that will end up relating to on-field production is anyone's guess.

We have absolutely no idea if he's going to be Alshon Jeffery (your words, not mine) or Taylor Price, Brandon Tate, and Chad Jackson---all 3 who everyone was SUPER high on in their 2nd year.

We can be cautiously optimistic with Aaron Dobson without having to rely on him, which is exactly what Bill Belichick seems to be doing. The thought of needing to depend on a 2nd year kid who hasn't shown anything but a few flashes here and there wasn't sitting well when trying to compete with the elite teams of the NFL. There will be plenty of opportunities for Dobson if he's healthy.

 

[JMC00]

And BTW, I'm fine with going into the draft intending to double dip at TE in order to solve THAT huge problem.

Yes.

Any two of Amaro, Seferian-Jenkins, Niklas or Fiedorowicz and I would be happy with the '14 draft.

Red zone

5 Wide

Dobson Rookie TE Gronk Rookie TE LaFell

Shortest guy is 6'3". Deal with that NFL

 

[West Philly Patriot]

You had me up until the last sentence. To each his own. It's obviously a difference of opinions. I don't think that both of Thompkins/Boyce even make the team unless we experience an injury or two. The odds of all 3 rookies making the team are not too good from the law of averages alone, especially since we've addressed the position with better talent.



For what it's worth to you, Aaron Dobson's "improvement" ended up equating to 18 catches for the last 3 months of the season from mid-October to mid-January. If you think that showed great skill, more power to you. I think he looked like exactly what he was, which is a 2nd round pick who obviously has some talent, but couldn't seem to parlay that into Brady's trust on a consistent level. The fact that he's also battled some injuries is another matter. He ended up having a nice peak before the bye, and hopefully that is something to build on. I agree that he obviously has upside. Whether or not that will end up relating to on-field production is anyone's guess.



We have absolutely no idea if he's going to be Alshon Jeffery (your words, not mine) or Taylor Price, Brandon Tate, and Chad Jackson---all 3 who everyone was SUPER high on in their 2nd year.



We can be cautiously optimistic with Aaron Dobson without having to rely on him, which is exactly what Bill Belichick seems to be doing. The thought of needing to depend on a 2nd year kid who hasn't shown anything but a few flashes here and there wasn't sitting well when trying to compete with the elite teams of the NFL. There will be plenty of opportunities for Dobson if he's healthy.

This seems like a reasonable position. I feel like the season ends and we sometimes forget what it was like in the moment. The receiving talent we fielded did NOT pass the eye test. I was high on Boyce. He showed ZERO. I was optimistic about Thompkins. My hope is he doesn't see the field this season at all.

Where was all this praise when the offense was stalling on 3rd down game in and game out. Brady was more frustrated than I have ever seen him and I've watched his entire career.

Nothing that happened in that Denver playoff game shocked me. We saw it all year. If Gronk were to go down can our WR corp get it done? Ask yourselves that.

Clearly BB isn't as content with the options as some others here and for that I'm thankful. Also comparing Revis/Browner to the Lafell/Edelman signings is ridiculous. Nothing else need be said.

 

[ripatsfan91]

You had me up until the last sentence. To each his own. It's obviously a difference of opinions. I don't think that both of Thompkins/Boyce even make the team unless we experience an injury or two. The odds of all 3 rookies making the team are not too good from the law of averages alone, especially since we've addressed the position with better talent.

For what it's worth to you, Aaron Dobson's "improvement" ended up equating to 18 catches for the last 3 months of the season from mid-October to mid-January. If you think that showed great skill, more power to you. I think he looked like exactly what he was, which is a 2nd round pick who obviously has some talent, but couldn't seem to parlay that into Brady's trust on a consistent level. The fact that he's also battled some injuries is another matter. He ended up having a nice peak before the bye, and hopefully that is something to build on. I agree that he obviously has upside. Whether or not that will end up relating to on-field production is anyone's guess.

We have absolutely no idea if he's going to be Alshon Jeffery (your words, not mine) or Taylor Price, Brandon Tate, and Chad Jackson---all 3 who everyone was SUPER high on in their 2nd year.

We can be cautiously optimistic with Aaron Dobson without having to rely on him, which is exactly what Bill Belichick seems to be doing. The thought of needing to depend on a 2nd year kid who hasn't shown anything but a few flashes here and there wasn't sitting well when trying to compete with the elite teams of the NFL. There will be plenty of opportunities for Dobson if he's healthy.

With regards to Dobson, he has already performed better than any of the receivers you listed combined. I get being cautiously optimistic, but he has the production/ability to back it up. Better rookie year than Deion Branch. Dobson has earned the optimism, the optimism Tate, Price, and Jackson was baseless hype.

- In 2 season with the pats Taylor Price: 3 catches, 41 yds, 0 TDs
- In 2 seasons with the pats Chad Jackson: 13 catches, 152 yds, 3 TDs
- In 2 seasons with the pats Brandon Tate: 24 catches, 432 yds, 3 TDs

In one season with the pats Aaron Dobson: 37 catches, 519 yds, 4 TDs


With regards to LaFell, an argument can be made that his production suffered in the run first offense. But he was also plagued by drops. I saw them and if you think Dobson or Thompkins drops were bad, you should see LaFell's. I just don't see LaFell as an upgrade from Thompkins large enough to warrant his contract. If Thompkins was healthy for all 16 games, odds are he would have outproduced LaFell.

12 games: Thompkins had 32 catches 466 yds and 4 TDs
16 games: LaFell had 49 catches 627 yds and 5 TDs

In other words, LaFell has to "blow up" here for his signing to be worth it. Because I am sure Thompkins or Dobson could have LaFell's 2013 contribution in their second seasons.

 

[supafly]

With regards to Dobson, he has already performed better than any of the receivers you listed combined. I get being cautiously optimistic, but he has the production/ability to back it up. Better rookie year than Deion Branch. Dobson has earned the optimism, the optimism Tate, Price, and Jackson was baseless hype.

- In 2 season with the pats Taylor Price: 3 catches, 41 yds, 0 TDs
- In 2 seasons with the pats Chad Jackson: 13 catches, 152 yds, 3 TDs
- In 2 seasons with the pats Brandon Tate: 24 catches, 432 yds, 3 TDs

In one season with the pats Aaron Dobson: 37 catches, 519 yds, 4 TDs


With regards to LaFell, an argument can be made that his production suffered in the run first offense. But he was also plagued by drops. I saw them and if you think Dobson or Thompkins drops were bad, you should see LaFell's. I just don't see LaFell as an upgrade from Thompkins large enough to warrant his contract. If Thompkins was healthy for all 16 games, odds are he would have outproduced LaFell.

12 games: Thompkins had 32 catches 466 yds and 4 TDs
16 games: LaFell had 49 catches 627 yds and 5 TDs

In other words, LaFell has to "blow up" here for his signing to be worth it. Because I am sure Thompkins or Dobson could have LaFell's 2013 contribution in their second seasons.

I find your stance to certainly be more than fair. I'm just giving you my thoughts. We'll have to see how it all ends up shaking out in the end, but I'm not as high on the 3 rookies as you seem to be.

I think that Belichick seems to be covering his bases just in case they don't work out, because the truth is that we honestly have no idea whatsoever.

Like I said, how some see the 3 rookies' contributions as "good" is beyond me, but in the last 3 months of the season they had 18 catches (Dobson), 11 catches (Thompkins), and 8 catches (Boyce). That is from the period of mid-October through mid-January. Personally, I can't really take numbers like that very seriously. If Belichick hadn't gone out and attempted to address the position, I'd have thought that he'd lost his mind. It was clearly the weakest WR corps we've had in years...possibly in Bill Belichick's entire career as a head coach.

 

[JMC00]

I just don't see LaFell as an upgrade from Thompkins large enough to warrant his contract. If Thompkins was healthy for all 16 games, odds are he would have outproduced LaFell.

12 games: Thompkins had 32 catches 466 yds and 4 TDs
16 games: LaFell had 49 catches 627 yds and 5 TDs
.

That's not the way you should look at it.

The way you should look at is had Thompkins been in Carolina's offense last year would he have produced the same as LaFell? (who I've seen more than a few NFL people say Panthers played him out of position playing him in the slot)

And the answer I come up with is, no.

 

[West Philly Patriot]

With regards to Dobson, he has already performed better than any of the receivers you listed combined. I get being cautiously optimistic, but he has the production/ability to back it up. Better rookie year than Deion Branch. Dobson has earned the optimism, the optimism Tate, Price, and Jackson was baseless hype.



- In 2 season with the pats Taylor Price: 3 catches, 41 yds, 0 TDs

- In 2 seasons with the pats Chad Jackson: 13 catches, 152 yds, 3 TDs

- In 2 seasons with the pats Brandon Tate: 24 catches, 432 yds, 3 TDs



In one season with the pats Aaron Dobson: 37 catches, 519 yds, 4 TDs





With regards to LaFell, an argument can be made that his production suffered in the run first offense. But he was also plagued by drops. I saw them and if you think Dobson or Thompkins drops were bad, you should see LaFell's. I just don't see LaFell as an upgrade from Thompkins large enough to warrant his contract. If Thompkins was healthy for all 16 games, odds are he would have outproduced LaFell.



12 games: Thompkins had 32 catches 466 yds and 4 TDs

16 games: LaFell had 49 catches 627 yds and 5 TDs



In other words, LaFell has to "blow up" here for his signing to be worth it. Because I am sure Thompkins or Dobson could have LaFell's 2013 contribution in their second seasons.

Numbers like that for Thompkins look "ok" in a vacuum. But when you factor in the reality of the situation it's not good at all.

1) He played on one of the most pass centric offenses in the modern pass happy NFL.

2) there were stretches when he was the 2nd option on the field, in said pass happy offense. The cupboard was completely bare at times.

3) His QB is Tom *****ing Brady

4) Almost all of those stats came early and he fell off a cliff, and was benched for poor play.

As far as Lafell goes,his situation was completely different. And his numbers were still better. Not saying Lafell is gonna save this Corps but he is the better player and it isn't close.

 

[ripatsfan91]

I find your stance to certainly be more than fair. I'm just giving you my thoughts. We'll have to see how it all ends up shaking out in the end, but I'm not as high on the 3 rookies as you seem to be.

I think that Belichick seems to be covering his bases just in case they don't work out, because the truth is that we honestly have no idea whatsoever.

Like I said, how some see the 3 rookies' contributions as "good" is beyond me, but in the last 3 months of the season they had 18 catches (Dobson), 11 catches (Thompkins), and 8 catches (Boyce). That is from the period of mid-October through mid-January. Personally, I can't really take numbers like that very seriously. If Belichick hadn't gone out and attempted to address the position, I'd have thought that he'd lost his mind. It was clearly the weakest WR corps we've had in years...possibly in Bill Belichick's entire career as a head coach.

Very fair point of view. I guess my perspective is that at least 1 of the 3 rookie receivers will develop into a starting caliber receiver opposite of Edelman.

To be fair, the lack of catches the last 3 months were due to injury. Thompkins had the hip, Dobson the foot, and Boyce went on IR with the ankle.

I agree the receiver position had to be addressed, but I don't think LaFell was the guy to do it. I would have been much happier with Sanders or Nicks at that price than LaFell. I just don't think LaFell is the answer to improving our receiving corps to put this into perspective:

Thompkins (0 NFL Experience): 1st 7 games, 7 starts, 23 catches, 334 yds, 4 TDs
Avg stat line for a game this season: 2.67 catches, 38.83 yds, .33 TDs

LaFell (4th Season): 1st 7 games, 7 starts, 21 catches, 278 yards, 3 TDs
Avg stat line for a game this season: 3.06 catches, 39 yards, .31 TDs

As you can see from the breakdown, LaFell was basically Thompkins but healthy and didn't have any competition on his team for playing time. As a rookie in a lesser role, Thompkins produced just as well and maybe even a little better everything considered. Is LaFell worth 3 million more a year than KT? I don't think so...

I agree the receiver position needed to be addressed, I just don't think LaFell warrants the contract he got or is an upgrade.

 

[supafly]

Numbers like that for Thompkins look "ok" in a vacuum. But when you factor in the reality of the situation it's not good at all.

1) He played on one of the most pass centric offenses in the modern pass happy NFL.

2) there were stretches when he was the 2nd option on the field, in said pass happy offense. The cupboard was completely bare at times.

3) His QB is Tom *****ing Brady

4) Almost all of those stats came early and he fell off a cliff, and was benched for poor play.

As far as Lafell goes,his situation was completely different. And his numbers were still better. Not saying Lafell is gonna save this Corps but he is the better player and it isn't close.

Exactly.

I believe that the injuries to Amendola, Gronkowski, and Vereen greatly benefited Kenbrell Thompkins, as the majority of his production came in the earlier weeks when he was much higher up on the depth chart.

 

[JMC00]

Also please note that LaFell did that being the 3rd and sometimes 4th option and was only targeted 88 times on a team that ran it more than they threw it (483 rushes to 473 passes)

 

[supafly]

I agree the receiver position needed to be addressed, I just don't think LaFell warrants the contract he got or is an upgrade.

I think that's going to be a hot debate around here for the rest of the 2014 calendar year.

I didn't get a chance to see the entire contract breakdown, and I'm not fully equipped to comprehend it 1/2 as much as others here anyway, but I did hear that his cap hits were structured pretty low and more appropriately than some expected.

 

[patsfan-1982]

all the rookies and DA had a total of 5 rec in the playoffs Austin Collie a street FA who was cut I think more then once had 5 rec alone. now that does not mean that one or all 3 rookies and DA wont have a good 2014 but BB had to bring in at lest one mid level WR

 

[supafly]

all the rookies and DA had a total of 5 rec in the playoffs Austin Collie a street FA who was cut I think more then once had 5 rec alone. now that does not mean that one or all 3 rookies and DA wont have a good 2014 but BB had to bring in at lest one mid level WR

Yeah, I think that goes to show that all of our "measurables" and expert analysis doesn't really mean a damn thing in the big picture.

A guy who had to sign a waiver due to having so many concussions and who was cut 3x throughout the season was able to step in and use his smarts to get open and do what was needed to move the chains.

 

[JMC00]

Thompkins (0 NFL Experience): 1st 7 games, 7 starts, 23 catches, 334 yds, 4 TDs
Avg stat line for a game this season: 2.67 catches, 38.83 yds, .33 TDs

#1 or #2 outside WR option in a passing offense with the GOAT throwing to him.

LaFell (4th Season): 1st 7 games, 7 starts, 21 catches, 278 yards, 3 TDs
Avg stat line for a game this season: 3.06 catches, 39 yards, .31 TDs

Playing out of position, 3rd option, in a running offense with Cam Newton throwing to him.

Also I like how you hold week 1 against him when they played the Seahawks and Carolina threw it 23 times and he wasn't targeted once and he only played 40% of the offensive snaps.

 

[patfanken]

I find your stance to certainly be more than fair. I'm just giving you my thoughts. We'll have to see how it all ends up shaking out in the end, but I'm not as high on the 3 rookies as you seem to be.

I think that Belichick seems to be covering his bases just in case they don't work out, because the truth is that we honestly have no idea whatsoever.

Like I said, how some see the 3 rookies' contributions as "good" is beyond me, but in the last 3 months of the season they had 18 catches (Dobson), 11 catches (Thompkins), and 8 catches (Boyce). That is from the period of mid-October through mid-January. Personally, I can't really take numbers like that very seriously. If Belichick hadn't gone out and attempted to address the position, I'd have thought that he'd lost his mind. It was clearly the weakest WR corps we've had in years...possibly in Bill Belichick's entire career as a head coach.

Your position is also fair, but fails to consider that over the last 3rd of the season Dobson was dealing with a foot injury that required surgery after the season, and I thought Thomkins' season really ended the game he fell so hard on his hip (making a great catch, btw), that my hip hurt for days afterwards. Add those 2 factors to the rookie wall, and the lack of production they showed at the end of the season was more understandable.

As for Boyce, there's a lot less to base a reasonably savvy opinion. Its more a gut feeling which is caused by this. In very limited snaps, I can very clearly remember Boyce getting excellent separation beating CB's deep. Twice on the sideline and once in the seam. Once he missed a ball that would have been a great catch, but still catchable. On the other 2 Brady just missed him. He was hurt when we drafted him, and never really caught up. However in those very few opportunities, he showed the kind of flashes that merit a close look this season as well as some reasons for optimism from us

As for your comparisons with Tate, Price, and Jackson, its really apples and oranges with Thompkins and Dobson. Only a Boyce comparison would fit. In fact a Jackson comparison would be a great comparison for their respective first years. I'm hoping Boyce is a lot smarter and far more diligent than Jackson, who really squandered his athletic talent.

 

[ATippett56]

Yup.

Always cracks me up when some posters feel that is was the rookie WR's who were the problem and not the $h/tsalad TE position (ex of 5 games of Gronk). Let them develop and CORRECT the TE deficit (largely affected by Hoodlumdez' arrest).

Bill Belichick cut Daniel Fells, Jake Ballard, and eventually Zach Dudfeld last year.

 

[ripatsfan91]

Also I like how you hold week 1 against him when they played the Seahawks and Carolina threw it 23 times and he wasn't targeted once and he only played 40% of the offensive snaps.

What are your expectations for LaFell next season then?

 

[supafly]

Your position is also fair, but fails to consider that over the last 3rd of the season Dobson was dealing with a foot injury that required surgery after the season, and I thought Thomkins' season really ended the game he fell so hard on his hip (making a great catch, btw), that my hip hurt for days afterwards. Add those 2 factors to the rookie wall, and the lack of production they showed at the end of the season was more understandable.

As for your comparisons with Tate, Price, and Jackson, its really apples and oranges with Thompkins and Dobson. Only a Boyce comparison would fit. In fact a Jackson comparison would be a great comparison for their respective first years. I'm hoping Boyce is a lot smarter and far more diligent than Jackson, who really squandered his athletic talent.

As far as any comparisons go, it was more to suggest that we really have no idea how they'll come out in the 2nd year, than to compare any specific players and their talent.

In other words, we've seen this before with Jackson, Tate, and Price, so it's obviously fair to wonder whether or not there will be any receivers who show some of the same. It's not about specific skill set or quality of their play--as we really honestly have no idea whatsoever. It's more about history repeating itself, and the odds of it happening/not happening.

In terms of their injuries, etc--sure, that's obviously fair to bring up, but it also doesn't change the statistics either. The fact remains that none of the 3 rookies contributed much of anything from mid-October on, aside from the 18, 11, and 8 catches that I listed. It's hard to argue about great progression when you see what the numbers actually were. Hopefully that changes next year, but Belichick isn't going to sit by waiting for these kids to possibly develop either.

As I suggested before, it's quite possible that we can see at least one/two of them develop while also having better talent on the field at times, and it looks like that's the goal. It's possible that Dobson will be the superstar deep threat that we're all hoping for, but we have to have the bases covered in case that doesn't happen just the same.

 

[JMC00]

What are your expectations for LaFell next season then?

Stuff like this

Brandon LaFell - Spectacular Sideline Catch vs. Packers 9.18.2011 - YouTube

3rd and 22, takes it away from Sam Shields and comes down with both feet in.

 

[borg]

Gronk's 6-8 games? In his 4 NFL seasons, he's played 16, 16, 11 and 7 games.

Anyone else see a trend developing here?