My Blueprint for the Defense

[AzorianPats]

I don't think you Watched Hightower at Alabama then. He was an exceptional linebacker.

I thought by the end of the season, he was really coming along too.

I think its way to soon to give up on DH. Especially now that he's moving to MLB, which is his natural position.

 

[AzorianPats]

Pat Kirwan warns against trying to copy the Seahawks too much:

Seahawks a model for the rest of the NFL? Don't get carried away - CBSSports.com

However, Kirwan does single out some "tried and true" elements that factor into success:



The Pats' 2013 D didn't come close to having 7 guys who could rush the passer and 5 CBs who could cover. I'd like to see that gap at least narrowed, if not entirely remedied.

BB has been way ahead of the rest of the NFL on the second point.

BB always stresses fundamentals, but I don't know if his defensive staff a bit behind in teaching some of this. There have been an awful lot of missed tackles and sloppy tackling in recent years.

Mayo, let's be real here bro. Seattle deservingly won the SB, they were the best team all season. No denying that. But they were also lucky in the sense they didn't deal with injuries the way we did.

We will never know the real plans BB had for this defense, but I bet it was all thrown off when some key guys went down to injury this year. I thought he was planning on more pressure from the middle by getting a prospect like Armstead from Canada, and then getting a Tommy Kelly, but Armstead never seen the field, and Kelly who was playing great til he got hurt, went to IR. He picked up Chris Jones, but by the end he hit a wall. Not to mention the loss of Vince, who might not be a pass rusher, but he's important cog by 2 gapping, and taking up blockers so other guys get 1v1 matchups.

Injuries killed what started to finally look like a dominant top 5 defense. By the AFC championship game, we were using the end of the roster.

I know Seattle the it team now, and everyone wants to copy that. But there's more than one way to win.

 

[Kontradiction]

Mayo, let's be real here bro. Seattle deservingly won the SB, they were the best team all season. No denying that. But they were also lucky in the sense they didn't deal with injuries the way we did.

We will never know the real plans BB had for this defense, but I bet it was all thrown off when some key guys went down to injury this year. I thought he was planning on more pressure from the middle by getting a prospect like Armstead from Canada, and then getting a Tommy Kelly, but Armstead never seen the field, and Kelly who was playing great til he got hurt, went to IR. He picked up Chris Jones, but by the end he hit a wall. Not to mention the loss of Vince, who might not be a pass rusher, but he's important cog by 2 gapping, and taking up blockers so other guys get 1v1 matchups.

Injuries killed what started to finally look like a dominant top 5 defense. By the AFC championship game, we were using the end of the roster.

I know Seattle the it team now, and everyone wants to copy that. But there's more than one way to win.

Injuries weren't the only issue. Not having a deep enough pool of pass rushers was a big one. They were only two deep in that department with a very steep drop off after that. There was zero excuse for Jake Bequette to be on the roster.

 

[Kontradiction]

I don't think you Watched Hightower at Alabama then. He was an exceptional linebacker.

I'm becoming more and more intrigued by the idea of moving Hightower to DE full time and drafting a more athletic LB in day two and beyond. Someone like Jones (4.64) or Smallwood (4.68). Hightower has the size and the ability to shed blocks for it and can add a solid body to the rotation if Belichick is looking to continue to make the defense more athletic and aggressive.

 

[All22PatsFan]

I'm becoming more and more intrigued by the idea of moving Hightower to DE full time and drafting a more athletic LB in day two and beyond. Someone like Jones (4.64) or Smallwood (4.68). Hightower has the size and the ability to shed blocks for it and can add a solid body to the rotation if Belichick is looking to continue to make the defense more athletic and aggressive.

Trust me Hightower struggled on the strongside for a reason. He is best suited for MLB. I have thought about it though.

 

[All22PatsFan]

And Collins has the chance to be a special blitzer I would keep him on the strongside.

 

[Kontradiction]

Trust me Hightower struggled on the strongside for a reason. He is best suited for MLB. I have thought about it though.

Can you elaborate on that a little? Not saying you're wrong, but what did you see? You have access to the All-22 view so, as was the case yesterday in our conversation about Harmon, can you post screen shots or upload videos to YouTube to show us his struggles so we can figure out if it was simply technique or lack of power?

 

[All22PatsFan]

Can you elaborate on that a little? Not saying you're wrong, but what did you see? You have access to the All-22 view so, as was the case yesterday in our conversation about Harmon, can you post screen shots or upload videos to YouTube to show us his struggles so we can figure out if it was simply technique or lack of power?

Yea I can do that. I think if there were plans to move him to DE he would have gotten snaps there and when he started to play more MLB, he was in on a lot more runs, he was a standout along with DMac and Siliga late in the season. Collins also took a large step in the Playoffs. Last yr Hightower struggled on the strongside and I was unsure what we drafted him.

 

[Kontradiction]

Yea I can do that. I think if there were plans to move him to DE he would have gotten snaps there and when he started to play more MLB, he was in on a lot more runs, he was a standout along with DMac and Siliga late in the season. Collins also took a large step in the Playoffs. Last yr Hightower struggled on the strongside and I was unsure what we drafted him.

I hear you, but I don't think there were plans to move Hightower to DE at all last year. Especially not when Mayo went down for the season. But the selection of Collins last year coupled with his increased play down the stretch would seem to signal that BB is looking to go more athletic in the front 7. If that's the case, Hightower isn't a fit at LB but has shown the ability to rush the passer and defeat blockers one on one when he does so. He has the size and strength to line up on the strongside. I'm just wondering what you saw through the film to convince you otherwise in the limited amount of snaps he played there.

 

[All22PatsFan]

I hear you, but I don't think there were plans to move Hightower to DE at all last year. Especially not when Mayo went down for the season. But the selection of Collins last year coupled with his increased play down the stretch would seem to signal that BB is looking to go more athletic in the front 7. If that's the case, Hightower isn't a fit at LB but has shown the ability to rush the passer and defeat blockers one on one when he does so. He has the size and strength to line up on the strongside. I'm just wondering what you saw through the film to convince you otherwise in the limited amount of snaps he played there.

I think Collins played a lot better on the strongside then Hightower, part of that has to do with coverage. But Collins was so much better as a blitzer. Hightower IMO was better blizter when he was at MLB, his run blitzs were also really effective When the Patriots played a 43 under at the start of the year they had Hightower and Ninko standing, and one rushing, with the Mayo injury, Collins started doing that he was really effective, he just wasn't getting it done vs the run (He has since improved greatly). Hightower really started playing well past the Texans game. He performed really well on the inside. I thought it was evident during the playoffs and late season. If the pats were to move Hightower to DE, I think the Patriots would have to resign Spikes and I don't see that happening. The Patriots have a chance at top LB group with the unique combination of Collins, Hightower and Mayo. The Patriots need a speed rusher, who can play an Nickel situations, they can move Chandler inside. Collins is the Nickel LB so it is unlikely it will be him. With three DEs, Jones could have more rest and have the best year of his career. Higtower can be the best MLB in the game next season if he plays like he did in the playoffs.

 

[stelfans]

Hightower will be fine at MLB. He should drop about 10 pounds but he says BB is fine with him at 270 so what can we do?

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm becoming more and more intrigued by the idea of moving Hightower to DE full time and drafting a more athletic LB in day two and beyond. Someone like Jones (4.64) or Smallwood (4.68). Hightower has the size and the ability to shed blocks for it and can add a solid body to the rotation if Belichick is looking to continue to make the defense more athletic and aggressive.

I would be thrilled to put Hightower mostly in a DE rotation and draft Christian Jones to be an MLB, or a WLB with Mayo inside. I think Jones would bring a lot of what Kiko Alonso brought to Buffalo if he played inside, with more athleticism to be moved around.

When the Pats want to go "big" Hightower could move to MLB. And I agree that he should be playing at around 260#. I don't understand why the team wants him so heavy.

But it doesn't seem too likely that this will happen. Too bad.

 

[everlong]

I'm becoming more and more intrigued by the idea of moving Hightower to DE full time and drafting a more athletic LB in day two and beyond. Someone like Jones (4.64) or Smallwood (4.68). Hightower has the size and the ability to shed blocks for it and can add a solid body to the rotation if Belichick is looking to continue to make the defense more athletic and aggressive.

I would be jumping for joy if they did that. I was in favor of Hightower but I thought he would be much more fluid. A DE rotation of Nink, Jones and Hightower would be really solid.

I think Jones is going in the first round. The more I watch him there's just too much athletic talent and playmaking ability.

EDIT: Also a LB core of Mayo, Jones and Collins could stay on the field evey down and talk about size and speed. They would matchup against any of the high powered offenses very well. At that point I'd think about another FS to pair with McCourty vs a banger.

 

[mayoclinic]

I would be jumping for joy if they did that. I was in favor of Hightower but I thought he would be much more fluid. A DE rotation of Nink, Jones and Hightower would be really solid.

I think Jones is going in the first round. The more I watch him there's just too much athletic talent and playmaking ability.

I want Jones; still hoping he doesn't rise higher than day 2, but we'll get a better sense in a few weeks. Jones and Calvin Pryor would add so much much explosive playmaking capability to our defense.

What about something like this:

Day 1-2:

29. Calvin Pryor. Unlikely he will fall to 29, but you never know.
33 (possibly with a slight trade back, picking up a 4th round pick). Christian Jones.
62. Troy Niklas, TE.
93. Best interior OL.

Day 3:

[4 (from a possible trade back). Brent Urban or Justin Ellis, DT. Depends on which kind of DT you want.]
4. Richard Rodgers, TE.
6a. Aaron Lynch. With Hightower at DE we wouldn't need to go DE in the 1st.
6b. Antone Exum / Aaron Colvin. Depth at outside CB.
6 (comp). Trey Millard, FB/H-back.
6 (comp). Jonathan Dowling / Dontae Johnson, DB. A pair of 6' 2 1/2" guys who can play CB or S.
7. Larry Webster, DB/TE. Developmental pass rusher and/or athletic TE. He could be a dual-purpose threat.

Then you DE rotation would be Jones - Ninkovich - Hightower - Lynch - Buchanan, which would be darn good; Armstead could also get some snaps at DE if he comes back. Your LBs would be Mayo - Collins - Jones - Fletcher, with both Hightower and Ninkovich able to play LB if needed. Your secondary would be McCourty-Pryor at safety with Talib-Dennard outside and Arrington/Ryan in the slot, plus you'd have a couple of big DBs who can play outside or play safety.

 

[everlong]

Day 1-2:

29. Calvin Pryor. Unlikely he will fall to 29, but you never know.
33 (possibly with a slight trade back, picking up a 4th round pick). Christian Jones.
62. Troy Niklas, TE.
93. Best interior OL.

That pick at 33 has become automatic for you.

I don't see how Pryoor gets by the Eagles but that would be great.

Day 3:

[4 (from a possible trade back). Brent Urban or Justin Ellis, DT. Depends on which kind of DT you want.]
4. Richard Rodgers, TE.
6a. Aaron Lynch. With Hightower at DE we wouldn't need to go DE in the 1st.
6b. Antone Exum / Aaron Colvin. Depth at outside CB.
6 (comp). Trey Millard, FB/H-back.
6 (comp). Jonathan Dowling / Dontae Johnson, DB. A pair of 6' 2 1/2" guys who can play CB or S.
7. Larry Webster, DB/TE. Developmental pass rusher and/or athletic TE. He could be a dual-purpose threat.

The more I think about Lynch the more I have to think he's going to rise at the combine. I wouldn't doubt he goes in the 3rd.

Then you DE rotation would be Jones - Ninkovich - Hightower - Lynch - Buchanan, which would be darn good; Armstead could also get some snaps at DE if he comes back. Your LBs would be Mayo - Collins - Jones - Fletcher, with both Hightower and Ninkovich able to play LB if needed. Your secondary would be McCourty-Pryor at safety with Talib-Dennard outside and Arrington/Ryan in the slot, plus you'd have a couple of big DBs who can play outside or play safety.

It would be a great rotation at DE and much impoved pass coverage on each level.

 

[mayoclinic]

That pick at 33 has become automatic for you.

I don't see how Pryoor gets by the Eagles but that would be great.

It all depends on how highly you rate Jones, and how high you think he will go. I rate him ahead of Kyle Van Noy - not nearly as instinctive, but I think that will come; much more athletic, more versatile, and especially much stronger and able to fight through blocks.

I agree about Pryor. Green Bay may take him ahead of Philly. I'm just keeping him on my short list in case he slips.

The more I think about Lynch the more I have to think he's going to rise at the combine. I wouldn't doubt he goes in the 3rd.

Again, I agree - but what does one do - mock guys where they are currently rated by an amalgam of various draftniks, or mock them based on your own assessment of their ability?

16 months ago I had this mock, a full 6 months before the 2013 draft:

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/959894-my-blueprint-pats.html

None of those guys was a consensus first round prospect at the time. I didn't really expect them to stay that low, but I used where they were ranked at the time. That mock ended up including the #5 (Ansah), 7 (Cooper), 8 (Austin), 20 (Long), and 28 (Williams) picks. At the time Gil Brandt had gone out on a limb and predicted that Long "would be drafted" (see link in the OP) - he ended up being the #20 pick, and a consensus all-rookie player. Note also that Dontae Johnson - the only guy I had who didn't declare in 2013 - is still on my short list for 2014. Drew Boylhart has him going in the 1st round in his most recent mock, which is a bit of a stretch, but Bolyhart mocks based on his perception of talent, not rankings at the time.

I don't really believe for a second that Aaron Lynch will last to the 6th round. 3rd round sounds about right. But it's still early. For everyone who rises someone must fall. No one would ever have mocked Alfonzo Dennard in the 7th round this time 2 years ago. The key is to put together your prospect evaluations and draft board, hopefully with a clear and decisive vision in mind.

It would be a great rotation at DE and much impoved pass coverage on each level.

If Trent Murphy fell to 62 I don't think I could pass him up. But that's just me. He needs to bulk up and get stronger, but I think he can be a true stud LDE with terrific versatility. Lynch has more raw athleticism, but Murphy has more of everything else.

 

[manxman2601]

I'm becoming more and more intrigued by the idea of moving Hightower to DE full time and drafting a more athletic LB in day two and beyond. Someone like Jones (4.64) or Smallwood (4.68). Hightower has the size and the ability to shed blocks for it and can add a solid body to the rotation if Belichick is looking to continue to make the defense more athletic and aggressive.

We already have two athletic linebackers in Collins and Mayo whilst Hightower is underrated athletically. There's a big mismatch advantage to having a 270lb guy move like that. Still, I have no problem moving Hightower around to find the best mismatch in any moment.

 

[everlong]

It all depends on how highly you rate Jones, and how high you think he will go. I rate him ahead of Kyle Van Noy - not nearly as instinctive, but I think that will come; much more athletic, more versatile, and especially much stronger and able to fight through blocks.

You misunderstood me. It wasn't Jones I was saying was automatic. It was our actually owning the 33rd pick I was laughing at.

Again, I agree - but what does one do - mock guys where they are currently rated by an amalgam of various draftniks, or mock them based on your own assessment of their ability?

Probably splitting the difference.

16 months ago I had this mock, a full 6 months before the 2013 draft:

No one would ever have mocked Alfonzo Dennard in the 7th round this time 2 years ago. The key is to put together your prospect evaluations and draft board, hopefully with a clear and decisive vision in mind.

You're usually ahead of the curve and your mocks informative. Nobody would have figured Dennard to commit draft suicide.

If Trent Murphy fell to 62 I don't think I could pass him up. But that's just me. He needs to bulk up and get stronger, but I think he can be a true stud LDE with terrific versatility. Lynch has more raw athleticism, but Murphy has more of everything else.

That's the thing Murphy is ahead of ASJ in the CBS rankings. Of the two I think Murphy is probably a bit high at 44 but not overly so but ASJ at 47 is probably 20 slots too low. In CBS's top 20 I think Mike Evans, Kony Ealy and Dee Ford are way too high. Now all three may go in the top 20 but in the case of Evans and Ford I think they're going to struggle at the next level when playing against bigger, stronger and faster players and in the case of Ealy his tape just doesn't show me an elite player that some are projecting him as.

 

[mayoclinic]

Nobody would have figured Dennard to commit draft suicide.

I had Dennard as a day 2 pick for us this time 2 years ago. I was hoping he would slip to 62.

That's the thing Murphy is ahead of ASJ in the CBS rankings. Of the two I think Murphy is probably a bit high at 44 but not overly so but ASJ at 47 is probably 20 slots too low. In CBS's top 20 I think Mike Evans, Kony Ealy and Dee Ford are way too high. Now all three may go in the top 20 but in the case of Evans and Ford I think they're going to struggle at the next level when playing against bigger, stronger and faster players and in the case of Ealy his tape just doesn't show me an elite player that some are projecting him as.

I think Dee Ford is a one trick pony, but his one trick is highly sought after, hence Bruce Irvin going 15 overall 2 years ago. I've heard rumors that some people think Mike Evans could be Mike Williams II, and that if he doesn't run well at the Combine he could slip out of the 1st round due to concerns about getting separation.

I think Kony Ealy will be one of the stars of the Combine. I'm not that wild about him, but he has the kind of upside I could see a team like the Giants flipping over.

 

[manxman2601]

I had Dennard as a day 2 pick for us this time 2 years ago. I was hoping he would slip to 62.



I think Dee Ford is a one trick pony, but his one trick is highly sought after, hence Bruce Irvin going 15 overall 2 years ago. I've heard rumors that some people think Mike Evans could be Mike Williams II, and that if he doesn't run well at the Combine he could slip out of the 1st round due to concerns about getting separation.

I think Kony Ealy will be one of the stars of the Combine. I'm not that wild about him, but he has the kind of upside I could see a team like the Giants flipping over.

I'm not seeing it with Ealy either. I don't know what to make of this years pass rushers. They're not getting me excited.

Edit: he doesn't have the length, but what do you think about Aaron Donald as a backup DE as well as interior guy? If he has that versatility, that makes him a more likely Pats pick at 29.