The Safeties Have Never Been Good Enough

[Miguel]

That explains things nicely. Thanks, Borg. Miguel's cap savings numbers are somewhat misleading in that respect, since cutting a player (Connolly for example) doesn't necessarily mean that he is being replaced by someone costing $495K, even if when he is cut a player at the bottom of the roster will bump up into the top 51.

I will soon be using $420K because that is the salary of players 50 through 66.

 

[makoute]

I don't have anything quantitative; I just watch them and I don't see elite players, though Wagner is very good.

I think if you pair that defensive front with our LB unit, you'd see their play elevated as well.

Highly doubtful, since none of the Starting Pats LBs are good in coverage. We will see how Collins do when he starts full time.

 

[Miguel]

That explains things nicely. Thanks, Borg. Miguel's cap savings numbers are somewhat misleading in that respect, since cutting a player (Connolly for example) doesn't necessarily mean that he is being replaced by someone costing $495K, even if when he is cut a player at the bottom of the roster will bump up into the top 51.

Not sure how my numbers are misleading when I explain on my page why I come up with the numbers.

Your response "even if when he is cut a player at the bottom of the roster will bump up into the top 51" is exactly why I use net cap savings.

Without using net cap savings in my column my readers would expect bigger cap savings than actually realized when Patriots release players or larger cap costs than actually realized when Pats sign players.

If the Patriots release Braxston Cave - a player with a $420,000 salary, what would be the cap savings?

Net savings says zero.

 

[Brady6]

I presume that you are fine paying Ward the $6M-$8M AAV that he will likely get. The top 14 current contracts for safeties are all $6M AAV or higher.

For the sake of discussion, we have the following cap hits committed to the safety position against the 2014 salary cap:

• McCourty-$5,115,000
• Gregory-$3,558,334
• Wilson-$1,833,333
• T. Wilson-$1,150,335
• Harmon-$633,900
• Ebner-$594,150
• Total-$12,885,052

Therefore, I think that if you look at positional spending they could easily clean up this by extending McCourty and releasing Gregory and A. Wilson, and sign TJ Ward while ending with a lower investment than they currently have slated for that position.

Are you OK with paying almost $13m for Devin McCourty and a crew average at best players?

 

[Deus Irae]

Not sure how my numbers are misleading when I explain on my page why I come up with the numbers.

Your response "even if when he is cut a player at the bottom of the roster will bump up into the top 51" is exactly why I use net cap savings.

To use inexact terms, you're talking net while others are talking gross. The cut frees up the full value of the deal. How that space is used before the end of the day doesn't change that fact. Portraying it the way you do is the result of an additional step. If you cut Connolly, you free up $3m (salary minus bonuses, etc), not $2.5.

That's why it's misleading, in the context of what was initially being posted by Supafly.

 

[JackBauer]

Highly doubtful, since none of the Starting Pats LBs are good in coverage. We will see how Collins do when he starts full time.

So...you don't think having a pass rush (particularly interior) might make things easier for the Pats LBs in coverage?

 

[Deus Irae]

The Secondary was an elite unit, the Sehawks was the only one better and they benefited from there pass rush. The only thing the secondary needs to do is sign a #1 corner Talib, Grimes, Verner ect and maybe sign or draft a 5th corner, I wouldn't mess around with a unit that played so well last year. On the defense I would strictly focus on upgrading the pass rush.
The offense needs way more help a guard, TE and a WR. That is assuming Connolly gets moved back to center.

I think Dmac and Thomas are the same, Sherman is better then Talib but Dennard is better then Seattle's #2 CB
Patriots have got 3 studs at LB. So it seems comparable to me

Seriously, how long are you going to troll the board like this?

 

[mayoclinic]

I will soon be using $420K because that is the salary of players 50 through 66.

Thanks for the clarification. I do think the way you've worked the numbers is somewhat confusing. If, for example, the Pats chose to cut Dan Connolly, while their cap would automatically decrement by only $2.505M because a player making $495K would bump up to the top 51, they would in fact have $3M off the books if they chose to spend it on a UFA.

Without the $495K decrement, the cut numbers look something like:

- Vince Wilfork: $8M
- Isaac Sapoaga: $2.5M
- Dan Connolly: $3M
- Steve Gregory: $2.725M
- Tommy Kelly: $2.231M
- Adrian Wilson: $1.166M

Obviously, not all 6 of those guys are automatic cuts, but those 6 contracts would potentially save $20.116M in cap space if they were replaced by 6 UFAs making more than $495K. Right now I can count at least 6:

- Talib or a UFA replacement at #1 CB.
- Edelman or a UFA WR.
- Blount or a UFA RB.
- A UFA lineman if Connolly is cut.
- A replacement for Wilfork if he is cut.
- Hooman or a UFA TE.

Not to mention Svitek, Fletcher and Aiken, all of whom would make more than $495K.

Does that sound right to you?

 

[Miguel]

To use inexact terms, you're talking net while others are talking gross.


The cut frees up the full value of the deal. How that space is used before the end of the day doesn't change that fact. Portraying it the way you do is the result of an additional step. If you cut Connolly, you free up $3m (salary minus bonuses, etc), not $2.5.

That's why it's misleading, in the context of what was initially being posted by Supafly.

I ask once again
If the Patriots release Braxston Cave - a player with a $420,000 salary, what would be the cap savings?

Net savings says zero.

Let's say that the Patriots are under the cap by $10 million.

They sign Greg Hardy to a deal with a 2014 cap number of $5 million. The Patriot with the 51st highest cap number has a salary of $570,000. My way says that it costs the Pats $4,430,000 in cap space to sign Hardy. More importantly, the NFLPA numbers at

Public Report - NFLPlayers.com
would also say that.

 

[Miguel]

To use inexact terms, you're talking net while others are talking gross.

I am not only the only person who uses net. The NFLPA numbers uses net.

 

[Miguel]

Thanks for the clarification. I do think the way you've worked the numbers is somewhat confusing. If, for example, the Pats chose to cut Dan Connolly, while their cap would automatically decrement by only $2.505M because a player making $495K would bump up to the top 51, they would in fact have $3M off the books if they chose to spend it on a UFA.

Without the $495K decrement, the cut numbers look something like:

- Vince Wilfork: $8M
- Isaac Sapoaga: $2.5M
- Dan Connolly: $3M
- Steve Gregory: $2.725M
- Tommy Kelly: $2.231M
- Adrian Wilson: $1.166M

Obviously, not all 6 of those guys are automatic cuts, but those 6 contracts would potentially save $20.116M in cap space if they were replaced by 6 UFAs making more than $495K. Right now I can count at least 6:

- Talib or a UFA replacement at #1 CB.
- Edelman or a UFA WR.
- Blount or a UFA RB.
- A UFA lineman if Connolly is cut.
- A replacement for Wilfork if he is cut.
- Hooman or a UFA TE.

Not to mention Svitek, Fletcher and Aiken, all of whom would make more than $495K.

Does that sound right to you?

I am confused by this entire post.

 

[Miguel]

That's why it's misleading, in the context of what was initially being posted by Supafly.

It is a bit unfair to say that my numbers are misleading when I explain their use on my cap page - Miguel's UNOFFICIAL 2014 Patriots Salary Cap Information Page

I can not control how others choose to use them.

 

[mayoclinic]

I am not only the only person who uses net. The NFLPA numbers uses net.

Miguel,

I'm not being critical, and I'm incredibly appreciative of the work you do, and I apologize if I offended you. Perhaps I haven't read all the fine print as closely as I should have, and I'm not a capologist. But I think there has been some confusion about the difference in numbers, which until today I didn't understand - again, I'm not a capologist. Net vs. gross cap savings resolves it nicely. If we cut Dan Connolly (just to take an example) we have a $2.505M immediate net cap savings, but we have $3M available to spend on a free agent.

MC

 

[Deus Irae]

I am not only the only person who uses net. The NFLPA numbers uses net.

The others, in this case, were Supafly and Mayoclinic.

 

[mayoclinic]

I am confused by this entire post.

My question to you was fairly simple, just to clarify the net vs. gross issue. For example, you have Wilfork listed as a $7.505M cap savings if cut; that is net savings, I presume, and the number would be $8M if we were to use gross numbers for the purpose of signing replacement players. The other players listed are all similar situations.

 

[Deus Irae]

I ask once again
If the Patriots release Braxston Cave - a player with a $420,000 salary, what would be the cap savings?

Net savings says zero.

Let's say that the Patriots are under the cap by $10 million.

They sign Greg Hardy to a deal with a 2014 cap number of $5 million. The Patriot with the 51st highest cap number has a salary of $570,000. My way says that it costs the Pats $4,430,000 in cap space to sign Hardy. More importantly, the NFLPA numbers at

Public Report - NFLPlayers.com
would also say that.

You're overthinking this, because your second step doesn't apply in this instance. In the context of a discussion like the one Supa and Mayo were having, the 'gross' number freed up is what matters. Your 'net' number is completely irrelevant. Guys talking about freed space aren't going to constantly insert "Well, they'll also gain $x back in the available kitty when they replace the #53 on the roster with a new, higher signing, which will zero those numbers out and allow for more money to be spent on the higher priced FA".

That's not the case in other contexts.

 

[Deus Irae]

Interesting that Mike Reiss seems to be pulling back, just a bit, on his protectiveness towards Gregory. He's pretty clearly taking his cue from Waffle House in his latest article on the subject:

Sharing swirling thoughts on safeties - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Overall, my feeling is that Gregory has been an upgrade over Patrick Chung (who has drawn his own criticism in Philadelphia) and James Ihedigbo (who shouldn't feel secure in his standing after hearing general manager Ozzie Newsome say that one of the Ravens' offseason goals is to improve their athleticism at the position).

It's tough to damn with fainter praise than that.


Edit:

From his Twitter feed, earlier today:

Brian, don't understand the "hate' toward Gregory. He might be a 2b/3a type safety, but can't have all 1s. Tough dude. Smart.

https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/431150695199170560

 

[Brady6]

Interesting that Mike Reiss seems to be pulling back, just a bit, on his protectiveness towards Gregory. He's pretty clearly taking his cue from Waffle House in his latest article on the subject:

Sharing swirling thoughts on safeties - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston
It's tough to damn with fainter praise than that.

Edit:

From his Twitter feed, earlier today:



https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/431150695199170560

I do not think there is hate towards Gregory, I think most do not feel that he justifies having the 22nd highest cap # of any safety in the NFL, I tend to agree.

1. Eric Berry-$11,619,700
2. Troy Polamalu-$10,887,500
3. Eric Weddle-$10,100,000
4. Antrel Rolle-$9,250,000
5. Dashon Goldson-$9,000,000
6. Michael Griffin-$8,000,000
7. Tyvon Branch-$7,157,000
8. Charles Godfrey-$7,100,000
9. Louis Delmas-$6,500,000
10. Danieal Manning-$6,000,000
11. Roman Harper-$5,870,000
12. Kam Chancellor-$5,825,000
13. Earl Thomas-$5,473,212
14. William Moore-$5,150,000
15. Devin McCourty-$5,115,000
16. Morgan Burnett-$4,843,750
17. Thomas DeCoud-$4,800,000
18. LaRon Landry-$4,750,000
19. Glover Quin-$4,550,000
20. Reggie Nelson-$4,475,000
21. Mark Barron-$3,945,409
22. Steve Gregory-$3,683,334
23. Reshad Jones-$3,610,000
24. Brandon Meriweather-$3,400,000
25. Patrick Chung-$3,250,000
26. George Wilson-$2,800,000
27. Jamarca Sanford-$2,750,000
28. Kenny Vaccaro-$2,141,978
29. Rashad Johnson-$2,133,333
30. Barry Church-$2,000,000
31. Harrison Smith-$1,946,876
32. Eric Reid-$1,927,444
33. Craig Dahl-$1,883,333
34. Adrian Wilson-$1,833,333
35. Dawan Landry-$1,825,000
36. David Bruton-$1,650,000
37. C.J. Spillman-$1,558,334
38. Matt Elam-$1,537,955
39. Chris Conte-$1,522,400
40. Da'Norris Searcy-$1,510,106
41. Rahim Moore-$1,415,313
42. Alan Ball-$1,305,000
43. Jonathan Cyprien-$1,242,978
44. Tavon Wilson-$1,150,335
45. Andrew Sendejo-$866,666
46. Raymond Ventrone-$855,000
47. Chris Prosinski-$840,045
48. DJ Swearinger-$793,477
49. Sherrod Martin-$780,000
50. Quinton Carter-$758,750

Personally, I find the fact that we have four safeties in the top 50 cap hits to be concerning especially when two of them are the Tavon Wilson and Adrian Wilson.

 

[supafly]

Thank you Miguel, for all of your hard work and dedication to the numbers. Your knowledge is unparalleled, and I am personally here to learn from those like yourself.

Also, thank you Deus, Borg, and Mayo; for helping to explain my reasoning.

Either way you look at it, my main point was simply meant to show others some sort of example as to how sufficient money may be freed up rather quickly, if that is what Belichick felt was best for the team.

 

[supafly]

Interesting that Mike Reiss seems to be pulling back, just a bit, on his protectiveness towards Gregory. He's pretty clearly taking his cue from Waffle House in his latest article on the subject:

Sharing swirling thoughts on safeties - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston




It's tough to damn with fainter praise than that.


Edit:

From his Twitter feed, earlier today:



https://twitter.com/MikeReiss/status/431150695199170560

I'm guessing that many here may have a different kind of opinion vs mine, Deus, but in a perfect world I would like to extend Gregory at a more reasonable cost. In doing so, he'd be playing less snaps and more of a rotational role as our 3rd safety.

That is obviously much easier said than done though, so I'm not holding my breath. One way or another, I think that most of us want to see an upgrade in talent at the safety position--opposite of McCourty. If that means that Gregory doesn't make it back, so be it.