I can't tell if you're being serious or not. If you are, though - here goes:
I'm not being a naysayer by trying to be realistic about some of these moves.
What are my qualifications for saying the Pats overpaid for Welker???? They gave up a 2nd rounder for him. He's had one good year. He's not this huge "playmaker" everyone's touting him to be. Can he be the next Troy Brown? I hope so. He looks like he could have that kind of skill-set - and BB seems to think so, so I'm not totally pi$$ed about the trade, obviously the BB/Pioli stamp of approval gives me faith. That said, his exploits as a PR/KR are DEEPLY overpraised here. He averaged, what, 22+ per KR last year? That's not elite or anything. It's so-so.
But there's also the very real chance - backed up by his history of performance - that he's just a sort of hustling, dirt-dog little guy. Is that valuable? Sure. Worth a 2nd rounder? I don't know. Either way he's on the team, and I'm excited to see him TRY to become Troy Brown 2.0. I just think it's pretty clear we overpaid a bit - both in picks and $$$.
While deeming Welker the next Troy Brown at this stage is certainly premature and overly optimistic, you're just as remiss in the opposite direction to suggest he's more like Tim Dwight, and that the Pats overpaid for him. First of all, Wes Welker has played 2 years at wide receiver, and in his 2nd year, caught significantly more passes than Dwight has caught in any season in his 9 year career.
More importantly, you're vastly overvaluing the worth of a late 2nd round draft pick. Any receiver who has top-end size, speed and athleticism and demonstrated good character, durability and who were production in college will be off the board by the 28th pick in the 2nd round. What will be left will be guys who lack a few of those characteristics. There will be receivers with good size and athleticism who for some reason didn't produce in college, there will be guys who were productive in college but don't have ideal NFL measurables, and there will be guys with injury concerns.
You don't want to roll the dice with good athletes who haven't proven themselves good football players w/ every draft pick after those with both have gone in the 1st round and a half. Unlike those kinds of "yeah but..." prospects, BB + SP have seen a lot of film of Wes Welker playing in an NFL offense vs. NFL defenses, and have seen him have good success as a slot receiver, an area of serious need for the Pats w/ Troy Brown likely retiring. Having caught 69 passes in only his 2nd year as a receiver, it's ridiculous to suggest he doesn't have as good potential as anybody you could want to pick in the late 2nd round, and unlike most, he's got some evidence to suggest he might realize that potential.
As for his salary... $3.4 mil a year is entirely reasonable, and will only get more so as the cap expands. The $10 mil in guarantees might seem a bit high, but if BB is willing to gamble that Welker will be around for a few years, I trust him on that one.
