Peyton Manning in Cold Weather games

[Rob0729]

I think it has been colder in denver this week. Dont think its going to effect him much. He throws those short throws anyway.

It hasn't been windier. The cold in Denver is different than New England cold. The cold in Denver has little wind. It is going to be the wind that is the difference especially in Foxboro where the design of open end of the stadium creates a swirling wind effect.

Manning throws up a lot of ducks that his receivers (Thomas especially) seem to get up or make jumps for. In the wind, that negates that. He will need to throw tighter spirals (like Brady does) on Sunday night if it is windy. I think with that bum ankle, it will make it tough for him. Manning makes up for his lack of arm strength in his smarts. Wind takes away some of that advantage.

 

[Rob0729]

That is why I think our game plan will be to beat the crap out of his receivers, disrupt the timing and take away the short passes. Make him throw it down the field, IF he can get enough time to.

One thought though.

If that is the best way to attack them and you are BB do you do it now or keep it in your back pocket in case you meet them in January? I think thats a big question.

If it is windy like it is expected, this seems like the right strategy. Manning's arm strength sucks and even though he completes a lot of balls down the field, a lot of them are ducks thrown to wide open receiver or Demaryius Thomas who can go up for the ball. The wind will take these ducks off course.

 

[1960Pats]

Did you see this past week? He caused a sack by Ninkovich where Jones rushed up the middle and forced Newton to avoid the sack and stepped right into Ninkovich.

Also, he has gotten several of his sacks rushing up the middle. He has been dominant at times up the middle.

Also, Manning has been getting killed by the rush lately. Not this past week, but Manning has been sacked 13 times this season and 8 of them were in a three game stretch against the Colts, Chargers, and Redskins. Manning is getting pressured and hit a lot in recent weeks. The Colts were in his face for the entire first half and had to back off later in the game due to injuries in secondary. The Chargers got to him a lot too. Manning right now can be pressured especially up the middle.

Earlier in the season I saw someone on Playbook give a few examples of how much Peyton struggles when the pressure comes from his right. Hopefully Ninkovich will have a good day.

 

[Ring 6]

at home or on the road isn't as big as an advantage as people think in the playoffs. where did peyton's home field advantage get him last year against baltimore? when the temps drop he isn't as effective on the road or at home.

Proving HFA isnt a guaranteed win doesn't prove it isnt an advantage. Home teams win a very high percentage of playoff games

I'm still stung by us beating the giants in 07' in a close game and then losing in the SB. If we lose a close game against the AFC's "best," then so be it if we can get anything out of it for down the road or save some strategy for January.

The Giants were an average regular season team that snuck in to the playoffs and nobody gave a chance. That is not the case here, except perhaps in your mind. The Patriots, if healthy are a better football team than Denver. Its just a matter of how much the injuries have affected that.
This team doesn't need, or feed off of, moral victories.

 

[SVN]

It hasn't been windier. The cold in Denver is different than New England cold. The cold in Denver has little wind. It is going to be the wind that is the difference especially in Foxboro where the design of open end of the stadium creates a swirling wind effect.

Manning throws up a lot of ducks that his receivers (Thomas especially) seem to get up or make jumps for. In the wind, that negates that. He will need to throw tighter spirals (like Brady does) on Sunday night if it is windy. I think with that bum ankle, it will make it tough for him. Manning makes up for his lack of arm strength in his smarts. Wind takes away some of that advantage.

Lets see. I dont see it effecting them much as we are all hoping to be. Plus they run the ball quite well. Ran vs the chiefs too.

 

[Ring 6]

Lets see. I dont see it effecting them much as we are all hoping to be. Plus they run the ball quite well. Ran vs the chiefs too.

Cold and win has always affected Manning.
If the conditions are there and you come up and take away the short stuff and force him to throw down the field into the wind, it will have a major impact.
Let them run. Are you really saying turning one of the highest scoring offenses in the league into a run oriented team that is currently 28th in yards per carry is not a big deal?
28th in ypc isnt consistent with the claim they run quite well.

 

[Rob0729]

Lets see. I dont see it effecting them much as we are all hoping to be. Plus they run the ball quite well. Ran vs the chiefs too.

I don't think his balls are all going to go 10 yards off course, but they will be affected in the wind. You can't throw wobbly balls like he does and not be affected at least some of the time. The wind affects most passing games unless you have a QB who throws tight spirals like Brady. Wobbly balls are affect more because the it is affect by the wind because the wind can catch more surface area of the ball and aerodynamics of the football are used to the best effect.

It's simple physics. a tight spiral allows the wind to hit the football evenly and avoid most of the wind restistance while it goes around the cone shape of the ball. if the ball is wobbling, it will hit one side of the football at a time affecting the wobble even more and the tragectory. That is why Apollo rockets had cone shape tops for launch and flat surfaces for landing. The cone shape top helped them accelerate faster and the flat bottoms helped the craft decelerate faster. The same principle is with a tight spiral and a wobbly ball.

And I don't care if the Broncos run and I am sure Belichick doesn't either. The Broncos aren't likely going to beat the Pats if their air game is grounded by the wind a bit and Knowshean Moreno has a big game.

Besides if the Broncos only put up 27-28 points like they have the last two games, I like the Pats' chances. The Pats' offense is certainly capable of putting up over 30 on the Broncos' defense.

BTW, the Broncos ran for 104 yards and 2.9 YPC vs. the Chiefs. And they are 21st in rushing offense and 28th in YPC. And that is with most teams being in subdefenses all game because they are more concerned about the pass than the run. You are overstating how well they run the ball.

 

[Huckleberry1]

weather.com says:

daytime: 23F w/ Wind: WNW at 23
nighttime: 16F w/ Wind: WNW at 17

unfortunately wind is tailing away as it gets later, so gametime is something in between - call it ~ 19F and 20 mph. Hopefully enough to derail Pay-me-a-ton and his new Minnie-Me* side-kick.

* for those who need it "spelled" out ( WW upside down) - LOL.

I expect Goodell to exercise his option to flex the game until 2:00 a.m. when the wind is expected to be under 6 mph. Hell, the fans have already bought their tickets so it's not like the league will lose any money.

 

[SVN]

I don't think his balls are all going to go 10 yards off course, but they will be affected in the wind. You can't throw wobbly balls like he does and not be affected at least some of the time. The wind affects most passing games unless you have a QB who throws tight spirals like Brady. Wobbly balls are affect more because the it is affect by the wind because the wind can catch more surface area of the ball and aerodynamics of the football are used to the best effect.

It's simple physics. a tight spiral allows the wind to hit the football evenly and avoid most of the wind restistance while it goes around the cone shape of the ball. if the ball is wobbling, it will hit one side of the football at a time affecting the wobble even more and the tragectory. That is why Apollo rockets had cone shape tops for launch and flat surfaces for landing. The cone shape top helped them accelerate faster and the flat bottoms helped the craft decelerate faster. The same principle is with a tight spiral and a wobbly ball.

And I don't care if the Broncos run and I am sure Belichick doesn't either. The Broncos aren't likely going to beat the Pats if their air game is grounded by the wind a bit and Knowshean Moreno has a big game.

Besides if the Broncos only put up 27-28 points like they have the last two games, I like the Pats' chances. The Pats' offense is certainly capable of putting up over 30 on the Broncos' defense.

BTW, the Broncos ran for 104 yards and 2.9 YPC vs. the Chiefs. And they are 21st in rushing offense and 28th in YPC. And that is with most teams being in subdefenses all game because they are more concerned about the pass than the run. You are overstating how well they run the ball.

Lets see with the wind. even I will be happy if they run but their RZ conversion is significantly better. Not sure about about red zone defense. Too many injuries. Chiefs are a better defense than use ,whereas our run d after wilfork/mayo has taken a significant hit.
Broncos defense is not the same del rio defense as BB pointed out yesterday. They play a lot of man to man rather then zone so the panthers game or the steelers game for offense may not be a accurate assessment as both play a lot of zone. Comes down to if our guys can beat man coverage something which they have had trouble at times during the year.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

if the pats can't get pressure..it won't matter how cold it is

 

[Rob0729]

Lets see with the wind. even I will be happy if they run but their RZ conversion is significantly better. Not sure about about red zone defense. Too many injuries. Chiefs are a better defense than use ,whereas our run d after wilfork/mayo has taken a significant hit.
Broncos defense is not the same del rio defense as BB pointed out yesterday. They play a lot of man to man rather then zone so the panthers game or the steelers game for offense may not be a accurate assessment as both play a lot of zone. Comes down to if our guys can beat man coverage something which they have had trouble at times during the year.

Their defense still isn't very good against the pass whether it is the same defense that De Rio runs or not. The only reason why the Chiefs didn't score over 30 points last week is because they have zero vertical passing game. If Gronk, Amendola, and Dobson are open as Bowe and other Chiefs receivers were last week, the Pats could easily put 40 points on the Broncos. It was scary on Sunday when Smith had receivers open without anyone within 5 yards of them and he would either be a yard off on the throw or the receiver would drop an easy pass. The Broncos' defense is 23td in points allowed with 25.5 PPG (vs. the Pats 8th with 19.9 PPG).

Also, the Pats have a pretty good red zone defense. Yes, the Broncos have the best red zone offense in the league, but it isn't as good as it was earlier in the year.

I am not saying the Pats will definitely win, but even with all the injuries these are two fairly evenly matched teams. I would argue over the last month that the Pats' offense has been better than the Broncos' offense.

 

[Huckleberry1]

if the pats can't get pressure..it won't matter how cold it is

Like most people I have been thinking along these lines, however the more i think about it the more I wonder if Belichick is going to go another route altogether. Manning gets the ball out as quick as any QB who has ever played the game and it is really really difficult to get pressure on him fast enough to make much difference, as the Chef's found out last week, and their pass rush is outstanding. I am wondering if Belichick is going to go 3-4 with Fletcher inside with Spikes, use Spikes to help get pressure up the middle and Fletcher and Collins to help with coverage. It may be that focusing on coverage will be more useful than trying to get him to get rid of it quickly because that doesn't seem to bother him anyways. The other thing i am starting to wonder about is if McCourty is going to play more CB with Harmon at safety with Gregory? Either way it is going to be really interesting to see how Belichick approaches this, and while like others I have wondered if Belichick is going to show his whole hand or save something for the play-offs i think he will just go for it and try to get the win and worry about any play-off meeting when it gets there.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Their defense still isn't very good against the pass whether it is the same defense that De Rio runs or not. The only reason why the Chiefs didn't score over 30 points last week is because they have zero vertical passing game. If Gronk, Amendola, and Dobson are open as Bowe and other Chiefs receivers were last week, the Pats could easily put 40 points on the Broncos. It was scary on Sunday when Smith had receivers open without anyone within 5 yards of them and he would either be a yard off on the throw or the receiver would drop an easy pass. The Broncos' defense is 23td in points allowed with 25.5 PPG (vs. the Pats 8th with 19.9 PPG).

Also, the Pats have a pretty good red zone defense. Yes, the Broncos have the best red zone offense in the league, but it isn't as good as it was earlier in the year.

I am not saying the Pats will definitely win, but even with all the injuries these are two fairly evenly matched teams. I would argue over the last month that the Pats' offense has been better than the Broncos' offense.

Agree. The simple fact that we are looking at this as a contested game shows just how far this team has come over the course of the season. had this been played in early October then pretty much everyone would have been conceding the game to Denver and looking at it like a blowout. Now denver has come back down to earth somewhat and the Patriots have made big strides offensively while trying to weather their defensive losses. I love the fact that the Patriots played one of the best defenses in football last week and now face the best offense this week, should be a good game and help get them ready for what they are going to face in the play-offs.

 

[Rob0729]

Like most people I have been thinking along these lines, however the more i think about it the more I wonder if Belichick is going to go another route altogether. Manning gets the ball out as quick as any QB who has ever played the game and it is really really difficult to get pressure on him fast enough to make much difference, as the Chef's found out last week, and their pass rush is outstanding. I am wondering if Belichick is going to go 3-4 with Fletcher inside with Spikes, use Spikes to help get pressure up the middle and Fletcher and Collins to help with coverage. It may be that focusing on coverage will be more useful than trying to get him to get rid of it quickly because that doesn't seem to bother him anyways. The other thing i am starting to wonder about is if McCourty is going to play more CB with Harmon at safety with Gregory? Either way it is going to be really interesting to see how Belichick approaches this, and while like others I have wondered if Belichick is going to show his whole hand or save something for the play-offs i think he will just go for it and try to get the win and worry about any play-off meeting when it gets there.

The Chiefs had problems pressuring Manning, but the previous three opponents did not. In three games prior to tthe Chiefs game, Manning was sacked 8 times and hit and pressured much more. The Broncos' o-line sucks this year. Manning was running the offense out of the shotgun for most of the game on Sunday to give him more time to get rid of the football, but I am not sure they will take the same approach against the Pats.

What I think the Chiefs failed to do in their rush was bump the receivers off the line of scrimmage. I didn't watch the game all that closely, but it looked like they played a lot of softer zone coverages to not give up the big play which allowed Manning to pick them apart with the small plays.

 

[Huckleberry1]

The Chiefs had problems pressuring Manning, but the previous three opponents did not. In three games prior to tthe Chiefs game, Manning was sacked 8 times and hit and pressured much more. The Broncos' o-line sucks this year. Manning was running the offense out of the shotgun for most of the game on Sunday to give him more time to get rid of the football, but I am not sure they will take the same approach against the Pats.

What I think the Chiefs failed to do in their rush was bump the receivers off the line of scrimmage. I didn't watch the game all that closely, but it looked like they played a lot of softer zone coverages to not give up the big play which allowed Manning to pick them apart with the small plays.

In all honesty Rob I have no idea what they are going to do, I'm basically just thinking out loud. I agree the Bronco's OL sucks but it doesn't seem to be harming their production the way it should be. I also though the Chef's played man most of the night? I agree though that they were letting them get into their routes easily, however the refs made it clear they were going to call every touch by a defender no matter how insignificant, and if they do that this week the people staffing the Patriots big screen should have a loop cued up of the last play in Carolina titled, THIS IS NOT PASS INTERFERENCE.....

 

[supafly]

Like most people I have been thinking along these lines, however the more i think about it the more I wonder if Belichick is going to go another route altogether. Manning gets the ball out as quick as any QB who has ever played the game and it is really really difficult to get pressure on him fast enough to make much difference, as the Chef's found out last week, and their pass rush is outstanding. I am wondering if Belichick is going to go 3-4 with Fletcher inside with Spikes, use Spikes to help get pressure up the middle and Fletcher and Collins to help with coverage. It may be that focusing on coverage will be more useful than trying to get him to get rid of it quickly because that doesn't seem to bother him anyways. The other thing i am starting to wonder about is if McCourty is going to play more CB with Harmon at safety with Gregory? Either way it is going to be really interesting to see how Belichick approaches this, and while like others I have wondered if Belichick is going to show his whole hand or save something for the play-offs i think he will just go for it and try to get the win and worry about any play-off meeting when it gets there.

Your thoughts are certainly reasonable, and I wouldn't be surprised under either scenario as far as using pressure/backing off a bit and dropping more into coverage.

As far as McCourty switching back and forth between CB and S in subs, he just recently did it within the past month or so. It's certainly a possibility, and will likely depend on what kind of talent we have available on the field tomorrow with all of the injuries in the secondary.

My guess is that McCourty is best used staying at safety, but Belichick has utilized him in that role plenty of times before. It worked pretty well in SB46 vs the NYG, it worked fairly well down the stretch run in 2011, and it worked out fine in the more limited and recent times that we've seen it lately.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Agree. The simple fact that we are looking at this as a contested game shows just how far this team has come over the course of the season. had this been played in early October then pretty much everyone would have been conceding the game to Denver and looking at it like a blowout. Now denver has come back down to earth somewhat and the Patriots have made big strides offensively while trying to weather their defensive losses. I love the fact that the Patriots played one of the best defenses in football last week and now face the best offense this week, should be a good game and help get them ready for what they are going to face in the play-offs.

Past 4 games teams have pressured him a lot. Hell SD did a great job at getting pressure on him. Just too bad they are a gutless team

 

[supafly]

Devin McCourty has been switched out from safety to cornerback many times before, and at least 2x this season that I can remember.

Most recently vs the N.Orleans Saints high powered passing attack, and I also believe it was used in another game right around that same timeframe, possibly vs either the NYJ or MIA:

Devin McCourty Stood Out at Safety, Cornerback, Filling in for Aqib Talib in Patriots-Saints Film Review | New England Patriots | NESN.com

Nick Underhill also ponders the same question regarding sliding McCourty to and from CB/S again in his recent article, stating that "This could also be a week where Devin McCourty takes some snaps at cornerback."

What to watch for: Are the New England Patriots healthy enough to contain the Denver Broncos? | masslive.com

 

[Huckleberry1]

Your thoughts are certainly reasonable, and I wouldn't be surprised under either scenario as far as using pressure/backing off a bit and dropping more into coverage.

As far as McCourty switching back and forth between CB and S in subs, he just recently did it within the past month or so. It's certainly a possibility, and will likely depend on what kind of talent we have available on the field tomorrow with all of the injuries in the secondary.

My guess is that McCourty is best used staying at safety, but Belichick has utilized him in that role plenty of times before. It worked pretty well in SB46 vs the NYG, it worked fairly well down the stretch run in 2011, and it worked out fine in the more limited and recent times that we've seen it lately.

To be clear Sup, I want McCourty at safety, that's where i think he's at his best and where he can make big plays, but if the choice becomes one of using Cole or going with a Gregory/Harmon tandem at safety then I would use McCourty on Decker or Thomas. Much of this is really going to come down to who he believes in more, Cole or Tavon Wilson/ Ebner. We don't know how much if any Gregory can play, so where is there depth given the chronic type injuries to Talib and Arrington, as well as Dennard out.

I guess what I am saying is that if Gregory can go then their best defensive backfield would be to have Talib, McCourty, and Arrington handle the WR's and Gregory and Harmon at safety. I would rather keep McCourty at safety but you have to field your best line-up and that may be it. I would put Talib on D. Thomas, McCourty on Decker, and Arrington on Welker with Fletcher and Collins in a 3-4 helping the safeties with the interior receivers.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Past 4 games teams have pressured him a lot. Hell SD did a great job at getting pressure on him. Just too bad they are a gutless team

Look, I love the idea of putting Peyton on his @ss all night, what i am asking is whether they would benefit more by adding coverage and going 3-4. getting rid of the ball quickly almost seems to work in his favor, and his arm strength is so questionable that throwing it later into heavier coverage might well work against him. He's great at fast hitting plays but there is still a question as to how well he beats you after his early options disappear. It is counterintuitive but may work better than trying to sacrifice coverage to get him to do something he loves doing, which is to throw it immediately.