Idle Thoughts - the AM edition

[ctpatsfan77]

You gotta give it up for BB, he's got balls. Lets a popular and effective punter go to save (what was it? 750k in cap savings?). It's one of those things that many here, and elsewhere, don't make the connection: these moves, the money here and there that can be saved, keeps cap hell at bay and is one of the reasons the Patriots remain competitive year in and year out.

What I'm still wondering is what incentive(s) Mesko hit that caused his salary to balloon that way, AND how a two-time Ray Guy award winner wasn't drafted when other Ps were.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

We have a ton of our own within the next 18 months to try and resign, so my feelings are that we will be relatively conservative next spring in the free agent market, aside from a couple/few of the usual mid to low level signings that we've grown accustomed to seeing.

Talib, McCourty, Solder, Wilfork, Connelly, Wendell, Ridley, Vereen, Bolden, Edelman, Spikes, Slater....the list goes on and on.

OK, just to be clear here (and only considering the players on your list):

FAs after this season
Talib
Wendell
Spikes
Edelman

FAs after 2014 season
McCourty
Solder (2015 option available)
Connolly
Ridley
Vereen
Slater
Wilfork

RFAs after 2014 season
Bolden

 

[supafly]

OK, just to be clear here (and only considering the players on your list):

FAs after this season
Talib
Wendell
Spikes
Edelman

FAs after 2014 season
McCourty
Solder (2015 option available)
Connolly
Ridley
Vereen
Slater
Wilfork

RFAs after 2014 season
Bolden

I assume that you are just clarifying who is a FA in what year, but all of them are FA's within the next 18 months, which was my overall point.

Solder is the exception, so we can cross him off the list as the option will be picked up next spring. We can also add Steve Gregory to that list while we're at it.

Either way you look at it, the will likely be relatively conservative with spending lots of money on outsiders in my opinion. That is due to the number of our own free agents, many of which could be considered "core."

 

[shmessy]

OK, just to be clear here (and only considering the players on your list):

FAs after this season
Talib
Wendell
Spikes
Edelman

FAs after 2014 season
McCourty
Solder (2015 option available)
Connolly
Ridley
Vereen
Slater
Wilfork

RFAs after 2014 season
Bolden

Priorities:

This year/offseason: Talib and Edelman

Next year/offseason: McCourty, Vereen, Slater - - hit the option on Solder and fingers crossed on Ridley (by then, they'd know which between Ridley and the RFA Bolden they want to prioritize). Too early to tell what they should do about Big Vince in 18 months. They should have more room then as Hernandez' cap hit pretty much comes off then?

 

[pencilneckgeek]

Priorities:

This year/offseason: Talib and Edelman

Next year/offseason: McCourty, Vereen, Slater - - hit the option on Solder and fingers crossed on Ridley (by then, they'd know which between Ridley and the RFA Bolden they want to prioritize). Too early to tell what they should do about Big Vince in 18 months. They should have more room then as Hernandez' cap hit pretty much comes off then?

At $7.5M for 2014, they're going to need to figure out what to do with Vince in 10 months, not 18. That contract was due to be renegotiated, but with his injury, it's going to be harder to commit long-term, and it's also going to be hard to pay $7.5M for someone who will likely have lost a step and had to drop weight. I expect that they will renegotiate to free-up some cap space in the year that the deferred bonus to the accused felon is tallied against the cap. Fortunately, they can fully expect a credit in 2015, so that will help with the long list of 2014 FAs and they probably won't need to carry-over cap money next year.

BTW, I think you have a decent list there of who is likely to see an extension. With turnover of players in the NFL, many of our core players now are not likely to be our core players in two years. Riddler may fall off that list, on account of the beating he takes on a weekly basis. His running style makes it hard to envision him being the force he is now, after the customary 4-year run that most RBs get has passed, but maybe the RB by comittee that BB uses will get him an extra trip around the bases.

 

[supafly]

Fortunately, they can fully expect a credit in 2015, so that will help with the long list of 2014 FAs and they probably won't need to carry-over cap money next year.

I'm assuming that you mean 2015, not 2014, as there is hardly a "long list" of free agents next year in 2014.

2014 is actually a walk in the park compared to last year and the next year of 2015. As a matter of fact, now that Ninkovich is done, the list is even smaller. It's much better than most years.

2015 is the long list, and that's exactly why they'll likely have to continue to carry some money over.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

Although Thompkins had a good game, i have some issues the way he tries to catch the ball, i am not expert but it always seems clunky.

Disappointed we haven't seem much of Boyce yet, but he did show a few flashes, well relative to how many times he played.

Yes - it appears his technique can use some polishing...

 

[AzPatsFan]

I'm assuming that you mean 2015, not 2014, as there is hardly a "long list" of free agents next year in 2014.

2014 is actually a walk in the park compared to last year and the next year of 2015. As a matter of fact, now that Ninkovich is done, the list is even smaller. It's much better than most years.

2015 is the long list, and that's exactly why they'll likely have to continue to carry some money over.

You have forgotten that 2014 is the last year of flat CAPs. . In 2015 the CAP will expand, and once again BB has for seen that he will have more money to resign the 2015 FAs.

 

[supafly]

You have forgotten that 2014 is the last year of flat CAPs.

I haven't forgotten anything, to be honest. The general consensus has been that it will not go up nearly as much as was initially predicted.

The current projections by Street and Smyth and the Sports Business Journal states that the cap will rise approx. 3 million dollars in 2015, and that the "bigger increase" that you are referring to (which they project as 5-6 million) won't occur until 2016.

Beginning in 2014 and continuing through 2015 and beyond, a "recapture" must occur to repay the money that was taken for the slight increase that we've seen in the past 2 yrs--when it was actually supposed to drop a bit, let alone stay the same.

In 2015 the CAP will expand, and once again BB has for seen that he will have more money to resign the 2015 FAs.

Actually, your thinking seems to be a bit backwards on this. It was Belichick and Kraft who predicted that the cap wouldn't be rising nearly as dramatically as the majority though, and Kraft came out and stated as much. After his initial comments, there seemed to be many who started to agree with him. The owner of the HOU Texans was one who quickly jumped on board with his thoughts.

I agree with you in terms of them being ahead of the curve, but definitely not for the reasons that you are stating. There were ahead of the curve for predicting that it wouldn't go up like everyone thought, not because it was going up.

Of course we may find that it does go up a bit more than predicted which is always possible, as the NFLPA could once again lobby for a borrowing from future years, but even if they did that they'd just be digging themselves a bigger hole.

Here is one very important article to read from the Sports Business Journal, who is a very credible source when compared to the usual mediots:

NFL projecting flat salary cap through 2015 - SportsBusiness Daily | SportsBusiness Journal | SportsBusiness Daily Global

 

[AzPatsFan]

I haven't forgotten anything, to be honest. The general consensus has been that it will not go up nearly as much as was initially predicted.

The current projections by Street and Smyth and the Sports Business Journal states that the cap will rise approx. 3 million dollars in 2015, and that the "bigger increase" that you are referring to (which they project as 5-6 million) won't occur until 2016.

Beginning in 2014 and continuing through 2015 and beyond, a "recapture" must occur to repay the money that was taken for the slight increase that we've seen in the past 2 yrs--when it was actually supposed to drop a bit, let alone stay the same.



Actually, your thinking seems to be a bit backwards on this. It was Belichick and Kraft who predicted that the cap wouldn't be rising nearly as dramatically as the majority though, and Kraft came out and stated as much. After his initial comments, there seemed to be many who started to agree with him. The owner of the HOU Texans was one who quickly jumped on board with his thoughts.

I agree with you in terms of them being ahead of the curve, but definitely not for the reasons that you are stating. There were ahead of the curve for predicting that it wouldn't go up like everyone thought, not because it was going up.

Of course we may find that it does go up a bit more than predicted which is always possible, as the NFLPA could once again lobby for a borrowing from future years, but even if they did that they'd just be digging themselves a bigger hole.

Here is one very important article to read from the Sports Business Journal, who is a very credible source when compared to the usual mediots:

NFL projecting flat salary cap through 2015 - SportsBusiness Daily | SportsBusiness Journal | SportsBusiness Daily Global

As I read this article, the Cap will start climbing in 2015 by almost 300% ($ 3mill vs < $1 million) over the average annual climb from 2012 thru 2014.

 

[supafly]

As I read this article, the Cap will start climbing in 2015 by almost 300% ($ 3mill vs < $1 million) over the average annual climb from 2012 thru 2014.

The point is that many who follow the NFL felt that the new TV money would kick in substantially, and that 2015 would be a dramatic climb in salary cap space. That is not the case.

Obviously, it will likely go up a bit. Hell, it went up 2-3 million this year, and slightly last year too. That current pace is scheduled to continue at this point in time, but it's not anywhere close to what many initially thought.

The problem is that there needs to be a recapture or recouping of the funds where they borrowed against future years when they agreed to the new CBA, as it was scheduled to actually go down a couple of million dollars, and the NFLPA figured out a way to raise it in the meantime--but they had to borrow from future yrs. They are paying for that is some ways with the new TV money coming up, so it's not going to go up nearly as much as it was scheduled.

We'll have to wait and see how it turns out, but in the meantime we can probably assume that since Kraft was the one predicting the lesser increase, that our team has been preparing themselves accordingly. We obviously won't be able to keep some players that we'd like just like Woodhead last year, but they should be able to keep a nice percentage of guys who they appreciate and want to retain into the future.

The second 5 yr period of the new CBA starting in 2016 should be better. It was this first 5 yr period where they borrowed from future years with the new TV money.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

Priorities:

This year/offseason: Talib and Edelman

Next year/offseason: McCourty, Vereen, Slater - - hit the option on Solder and fingers crossed on Ridley (by then, they'd know which between Ridley and the RFA Bolden they want to prioritize). Too early to tell what they should do about Big Vince in 18 months. They should have more room then as Hernandez' cap hit pretty much comes off then?

Good list/write up. I think the other interesting list is, who is not re-signed or who is a must restructure to afford Talib/Edelman. I assume Edelman will be in line for maybe a 300% raise? Talib a 200% raise? Even if backloaded I assume their 2014 cap hits still jump significantly.

As others have mentioned, Vince is the big question mark with a 10 million cap for 2014/saving 6.5 if cut. I'm not saying cut him but with injury/age it does present some potential difficult considerations.

On dead money, reading that list is a sore spot because that crud AH's name is there. If I read it right(which I may not be) the 2014 dead money is about 15 million (7.5 belonging to AH).

 

[Halifax_Pats_Fan]

I understand Hoyer played well against them but I think today we are in tough guys...