2nd + 3rd = 5 years of poor defensive selections

[borg]

Didn't he do that this past April?

Using a #2....how optimistic are you? Time will tell

 

[Oswlek]

Using a #2....how optimistic are you? Time will tell

Marginally, but I wasn't talking about the player, just that Bill recognized the need.

 

[Brady6]

Is it a problem? What's the league average for 2 and 3rd round picks playing 3+ years or being starters or pro bowls? Cant really look at it in a vacuum and say its a problem when overall the team has been a super bowl contender just about every year since 01, won 3 and has been to 5.

I was only actually referring to the defensive players taken in rounds 2 or 3 over the last 5 years, but it is sort of comical that not one poster has even answered the OP question, which is what do you think the problem is that causes Belichick to miss on these 2nd and 3rd round defensive picks? I am not saying Belichick is a bad GM or for that matter I am not labeling him in anyway, I am asking fellow members if they have any reasoning for the poor picks in these rounds during this timeframe.

I do have make 1 point in response to what I perceive to be you saying it is not a problem because we’ve gone to super bowls, which is we have Tom Brady the best QB in the history of the NFL he covers up a lot of mistakes so if it is a problem someone who determines things solely on super bowl appearances is likely not to notice whether it is a problem or not.

Furthermore we have not won a super bowl in nearly a decade, and the 2 we’ve gone to in the last 5 years were on the right shoulder of Tom Brady and were lost because of the play of the defense when it came time to step up, so yes it is a problem, it’s a huge problem because Brady is getting us places and giving us opportunities and we’re unable to make the most of them opportunities.

 

[condon84]

His midget quick twitch DB formula is a fail. WRs are getting bigger yet BB maintained his 3 cone lust. He finally woke up and found physical DBs that can challenge both on the line and on the field. It appears he has seen the light.
Now he must pull a reversal and find a quick twitch speed LB because his LB corp is lumbering out there in coverage. The Pats LBs have been fortunate they've only faced rookie passers so far

Whatever they look for in DBs, especially Safeties, needs to be revisited. Same thing with WRs.

They just keep going for the same types of guys and they rarely work out. The WR who is working out, Edelman, is unlike the WRs they've drafted recently.

What Bill is great at is finding UDFAs and trading/signing current NFL players who are misused on their current teams and putting them in a position to succeed here in NE.

 

[cmasspatsfan]

I was only actually referring to the defensive players taken in rounds 2 or 3 over the last 5 years, but it is sort of comical that not one poster has even answered the OP question, which is what do you think the problem is that causes Belichick to miss on these 2nd and 3rd round defensive picks? I am not saying Belichick is a bad GM or for that matter I am not labeling him in anyway, I am asking fellow members if they have any reasoning for the poor picks in these rounds during this timeframe.

I do have make 1 point in response to what I perceive to be you saying it is not a problem because we’ve gone to super bowls, which is we have Tom Brady the best QB in the history of the NFL he covers up a lot of mistakes so if it is a problem someone who determines things solely on super bowl appearances is likely not to notice whether it is a problem or not.

Furthermore we have not won a super bowl in nearly a decade, and the 2 we’ve gone to in the last 5 years were on the right shoulder of Tom Brady and were lost because of the play of the defense when it came time to step up, so yes it is a problem, it’s a huge problem because Brady is getting us places and giving us opportunities and we’re unable to make the most of them opportunities.

You missed my point, the draft is a crap shoot, how many 2nd and 3rd rounder's become regulars? Also he's usually picking at the bottom of the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Cold hard football facts did a study and their conclusion was the Pats had the best draft this past decade.

 

[Bobsyouruncle]

I tend to think that you could dispatch a crack team of the worlds greatest scientists to study the draft for ten years and the results would still be the same. Not just with the Pats, but with every other team. There would still be hits and misses all over the place, because as much as people like to believe the draft is a problem that has a solution (if we could just crack the code), it just isn't.

Much of the information on what makes players successful is just flat out unknowable. What will a players work ethic be? Will they get injured? Can they understand the play book? It's all a series of educated guesses, and it always will be.

 

[andrewgarrr]

Yup. BB didn't make good picks.

What about every other GM/team?

This list means nothing without a comparison. Nothing is graded on an absolute scale in team sports.

 

[Sciz]

"That baseball player is such a terrible hitter! He fails 2/3 of the time!"

 

[Brady6]

You missed my point, the draft is a crap shoot, how many 2nd and 3rd rounder's become regulars? Also he's usually picking at the bottom of the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Cold hard football facts did a study and their conclusion was the Pats had the best draft this past decade.

All players drafted in the second or third round by the patriots over the last 5 years:

• 2008 – Terrence Wheatley | Shawn Crable | Kevin O’Connell
• 2009 – Pat Chung | Ron Brace | Darius Butler | Sebastian Vollmer | Brandon Tate | Tyrone McKenzie
• 2010 – Rob Gronkowski | Jermaine Cunningham | Brandon Spikes | Taylor Price
• 2011 – Ras-I Dowling | Shane Vereen| Stevan Ridley | Ryan Mallett
• 2012 – Tavon Wilson | Jake Bequette
• 2013 – Jamie Collins | Aaron Dobon | Logan Ryan | Duron Harmon

So of the 23 selected 14 were defensive players and just 1 (Brandon Spikes) is playing a primary role on the defense, and he has even begun to lose ground to Hightower, which equates to 7.14% of all draftees in the 5 year period, and for arguments sake I will remove the 3 rookies selected this year, but the percentage is still 9%.

Offensively we have:

• Gronkowski – Best TE in NFL
• Vollmer – Best RT in NFL
• Ridley – Top 10 NFL RB
• Vereen – Breakout player until wrist injury
• Mallett – Backup QB to Tom Brady
• Dobson – Rookie who scored a TD on his first career catch

So that means 6 of 9 players fill an important role, which equates to 66% of all draftees in the 5 year period.

This is the issue in my mind, he is doing things very well on the offensive side, but he is using more assets and receiving 59% less in results on the defensive side.

 

[Jackson 2]

I was only actually referring to the defensive players taken in rounds 2 or 3 over the last 5 years, but it is sort of comical that not one poster has even answered the OP question, which is what do you think the problem is that causes Belichick to miss on these 2nd and 3rd round defensive picks? I am not saying Belichick is a bad GM or for that matter I am not labeling him in anyway, I am asking fellow members if they have any reasoning for the poor picks in these rounds during this timeframe.

I do have make 1 point in response to what I perceive to be you saying it is not a problem because we’ve gone to super bowls, which is we have Tom Brady the best QB in the history of the NFL he covers up a lot of mistakes so if it is a problem someone who determines things solely on super bowl appearances is likely not to notice whether it is a problem or not.

Furthermore we have not won a super bowl in nearly a decade, and the 2 we’ve gone to in the last 5 years were on the right shoulder of Tom Brady and were lost because of the play of the defense when it came time to step up, so yes it is a problem, it’s a huge problem because Brady is getting us places and giving us opportunities and we’re unable to make the most of them opportunities.

I think you are trying to raise a legitimate question, but could you re-write your second paragraph in English, please?

 

[Joker]

Bob's not my uncle but I wish he was....

 

[Brady6]

Yup. BB didn't make good picks.

What about every other GM/team?

This list means nothing without a comparison. Nothing is graded on an absolute scale in team sports.

2010 – 2012 these are the primary starter rates by round league wide:

Round 1
96 players
75 primary starters
78% rate

Round 2
95 players
59 primary starters
59% rate

Round 3
100 players
36 primary starters
36% rate

Not including the 3 nonstarters selected this year on the defensive side of the ball 9% of defensive players selected by Belichick in the last 5 years is a primary starter on this team, if you add in this seasons picks it drops to 7%.

Source: http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013...m-by-team-draft-success-in-first-three-rounds

 

[Sciz]

2010 – 2012 these are the primary starter rates by round league wide:

Round 1
96 players
75 primary starters
78% rate

Round 2
95 players
59 primary starters
59% rate

Round 3
100 players
36 primary starters
36% rate

Not including the 3 nonstarters selected this year on the defensive side of the ball 9% of defensive players selected by Belichick in the last 5 years is a primary starter on this team, if you add in this seasons picks it drops to 7%.

Source: 2010-2012 NFL Drafts: Team-By-Team Draft Success In First Three Rounds - Blogging The Boys

Key number there of why Belichick trades down:
T-14th in "Primary starter success rate"
1st in number of picks over the first three rounds
T-4th in "Primary starters"

It's amazing what happens when you have an average rate but more chances. You don't make a good team based on what percentage of your picks are good. You make a team based on how many good players you pick.

I still think this is a flawed statistic (for many reasons) and it's flawed to pick one group of players to compare to the overall percentage, but it still shows why Belichick's drafting is underrated by many.

 

[RoughingthePasser]

just to add from an old post I did...

other prev. secondary busts:

1.Butler CB (2nd round)-gone.
2.Merriweather S (1st)-gone!
3.Wilhite CB (4th)-gone
4. Wheatley CB (2nd)-gone
5.McGowan S (CHI)-gone
6. Sanders S -gone!
7. Bodden (DET(- gone!
8. McCourty CB (1)- ACTIVE
9. Dowling CB (Top 2nd)- OUT
10. Chung S

 

[RoughingthePasser]

We've come a LONG way though from the Monty Biesel/ Chad Brown depleted LB days.....now we have some elite lb's :

Mayo
Ninko
Jones
Spikes
Hightower
Collins

 

[Brady6]

Re: Re: 2nd + 3rd = 5 years of poor defensive selections

I think you are trying to raise a legitimate question, but could you re-write your second paragraph in English, please?

In a nutshell what I said in paragraph 2 was that having Brady allows the team to make the playoffs and even the super bowl despite the poor defensive draft picks, but when we get to super bowl we haven't been able to take advantage of the opportunity and win. Had we made better defensive selections in these rounds we likely could have won.

 

[Brady6]

Re: Re: 2nd + 3rd = 5 years of poor defensive selections

Key number there of why Belichick trades down:
T-14th in "Primary starter success rate"
1st in number of picks over the first three rounds
T-4th in "Primary starters"

It's amazing what happens when you have an average rate but more chances. You don't make a good team based on what percentage of your picks are good. You make a team based on how many good players you pick.

I still think this is a flawed statistic (for many reasons) and it's flawed to pick one group of players to compare to the overall percentage, but it still shows why Belichick's drafting is underrated by many.

I think the real problem is that receivers and defensive backs have particularly low success rates after the first round of the draft, yet that is where Belichick appears to prefer to draft them.

Belichick favors the quantity over quality draft strategy which is actually successful with most positions, but I think he needs change that approach for certain positions such as the 2 I mentioned.

 

[Fencer]

The story doesn't get much better if we look back further. Eugene Wilson and Ellis Hobbs are the brightest spots. By way of contrast, offensive picks in that range include Gronk, Light (long ago), Branch (ditto), Vollmer, Ridley, and Vereen.

If we look at later picks that properly should be regarded as offsetting earlier-round misses, we get Samuel, Dennard, TBC, Deaderick, Buchanan, et al. The offensive list is of course better if we include Brady, and competitive even if we don't.

I'd summarize the story as:

• First round -- better on defense
• Other rounds -- better on offense
• Veteran FAs -- better on defense
• UDFAs and near-UDFAs -- better on offense, with the various OL outweighing (figuratively and literally) Mike Wright

 

[DaBruinz]

I have the highest regard for Belichick, if someone asked me to name a public figure I idolized it would likely be him that said I cannot ignore that he is doing something wrong in the second and third rounds of the draft in the last 5 years when he drafts defensive players.

• 08’ second round selection Terrence Wheatley was released during the 2010 season.
• 08’ third round selection Shaun Crable was released prior to the 2010 season.
• 09’ second round selection Pat Chung not resigned after spending last season as third on the depth chart.
• 09’ second round selection Ron Brace was released during last season.
• 09’ second round selection Darius Butler was released prior to the 11’ season.
• 09’ third round selection Tyrone McKenzie was released prior to the 10’ season.
• 10’ second round selection Jermaine Cunningham was waived injured in the preseason.
• 10’ second round selection Brandon Spikes has two tackles in 47 defensive snaps.
• 11’ second round selection Ras-I Dowling was released in preseason.
• 12’ second round selection Tavon Wilson has played one defensive snap.
• 12’ third round selection Jake Bequette has not played a defensive snap.
• 13’ second round selection Jamie Collins has played six defensive snaps.
• 13’ third round selection Logan Ryan has played two defensive snaps.
• 13’ third rounder selection Duron Harmon has played eight defensive snaps.

The only notable player is Spikes, who to this point provided an inconsistent performance over his tenure even when contributing. It just seems like Belichick and his staff are missing something, what do you all think it is?

Notice: There still is time for the 12’ and 13’ picks to become good draft selections.

Gotta love the whining from people like Brady6 and Belichick010405. Seriously.

Some facts that you conveniently left out.
Tyrone McKenzie was tearing up mini camp until he tore his knee up. Freak accident. Yet you damn him because he didn't work out.

Collins, Ryan and Harmon have played in a total of TWO games. Yet you are already *****ing about them. You're little notice at the end was an afterthought to CYA. OH, btw, all 3 are playing on Special Teams units.

Patrick Chung was injured a good portion of last year. Prior to that, he was the starting Safety.

Your total aren't accurate. You only list solo tackles. You don't list assists.

Why not throw McCourty and Meriweather in there as well. Meriweather was cut and McCourty only has 5 tackles despite playing 2-3 times as much as Spikes.

 

[DaBruinz]

just to add from an old post I did...

other prev. secondary busts:

1.Butler CB (2nd round)-gone.
2.Merriweather S (1st)-gone!
3.Wilhite CB (4th)-gone
4. Wheatley CB (2nd)-gone
5.McGowan S (CHI)-gone
6. Sanders S -gone!
7. Bodden (DET(- gone!
8. McCourty CB (1)- ACTIVE
9. Dowling CB (Top 2nd)- OUT
10. Chung S

the fact you list James Sanders as a bust shows that you don't belong in the conversation.