Downplaying our team's expectations despite personnel losses?

[Raymond]

No. Vegas odds are based on who the bettors think will win. The house odds merely reflect the opinions of the bettors.

[/QUOTE]

Last time I checked, the PEOPLE were the bettors.

 

[mgteich]

your point?

Last time I checked, the PEOPLE were the bettors.

.

 

[ausbacker]

You're only looking at the scoring. I'm looking at 1st downs, yardage, TOP, turnovers, etc...

Outside of an "end of half" 1 play drive, the Giants never had a drive of less than 7 plays, never gained fewer than 22 yards, and scored on half their drives. They were able to limit the number of drives, keep the Patriots offense on the sideline, and change the field position situation, time and again.

And yet still, were only able to win because the Patriots shot themselves in the foot on both sides of the ball.

That said, I do agree that there needs to be significant improvement on both sides (hell even the return game) of the ball this season.

 

[tonyto3690]

Last time I checked, the PEOPLE were the bettors.

Exactly. Vegas has no interest in arbitrarily rating football teams. They set odds based on what will get people to bet against them and allow them to make a profit- ie. what will get them the most money, NOT who they think will win.

The betting odds set are much more about what will make them the most money, NOT who is the best team.

Vegas could think the Patriots are a 6-10 team. But people will still bet the Patriots will do better just because of familiarity and credibility. So instead of setting the line at 6.5 wins, they maximize their protection/winnings by setting the line at 10.5 wins.

 

[SONS_OF_BELICHICK]

I dont mind if people think...the pats are hurting from personnel changes as they believe they have a shot to beat us .......makes me feel better when we prove them wrong .....just like the bruins when they deflated the maple leafs.....


:rocker:

I can watch that video of those toronto fans taping the game 7 all day long

 

[mgteich]

The casinos set odds that try to get an equal amount of money bet on both sides of the bet. So, if they set the under and over for the pats at 10.5 wins, they expect half the money to be bet on each side. To the degree that that too much money is being bet on one side, the casino changes its odds. If its book is too unbalanced, it will make bets with other casinos to balance their book, rather than leave the book unbalanced and become a bettor themselves.

In a perfect world, 50% is bet on each side, with the house taking its percentage, often 10%.

Exactly. Vegas has no interest in arbitrarily rating football teams. They set odds based on what will get people to bet against them and allow them to make a profit- ie. what will get them the most money, NOT who they think will win.

The betting odds set are much more about what will make them the most money, NOT who is the best team.

Vegas could think the Patriots are a 6-10 team. But people will still bet the Patriots will do better just because of familiarity and credibility. So instead of setting the line at 6.5 wins, they maximize their protection/winnings by setting the line at 10.5 wins.

 

[Remarker]

Are we trying to make accurate predictions of the future or expressing reasonable expectations?

I'm terrible at predicting the future and my expectations for the Pats is not reasonable. I want everyone the Pats play to win their games except when they play the Pats. And I want the Pats to win every game by 20+ points. Anything less is unacceptable.

 

[Se7eN]

Meh, if our defense plays better than last year (it should do but I think it hinges on if Dennard gets suspended, etc), then I think we should be fine as Brady won't need to lead us to shoot-out victories which may not be possible this year (for the first half of the season anyways, rest is tbd)

 

[Triumph]

I think the major concern in Pats land is not so much who we lost but where we lost them. The team hasn't done a good job developing receivers in as long as I can remember. Yeah, 2006 we had arguably a worse team then we do now and still made the AFC Championship. That said, the Pats lost to the Colts and by the looks of it right now... Denver and Manning are the team to beat. The difference between the 2006 colts and 2013 Broncos... on paper the Broncos look better on both sides of the ball.

I think the Pats are going to be fine with some struggles along the way. As someone said, I don't believe we are going to witness the "drubbings" we are used to but close games that can go either way. Because of that I believe Brady will be the difference in many of the close games and am hoping one of our rookie WR's can match or exceed Lloyd's production this year.

The pass defense is the key to success or failure this season.

If it remains one of the worst in the NFL, the Pats will struggle to win games vs proficient passing teams.

 

[Triumph]

No. Vegas odds are based on who the bettors think will win. The house odds merely reflect the opinions of the bettors. Odds are set so that an equal amount of money is bet on each side of a bet. The house does NOT have an interest or opinion. In fact, any time there is a serious discrepancy in betting, a casino will pay money to lay off these bets through their own betting with other brokers.

Vegas odds are also sometimes based on who they think will win.

Ever see a spread that just didnt look right and sure enough Vegas knew something that everyone missed? I have.

A lot of money can be made at the start of every of an NFL season because Vegas always has point spreads that are off base because they dont have the teams dialed in yet. Just watch.

The perfect scenario for Vegas isnt equal money on both sides, its the majority of the the publics money on the wrong team. The Rams were 13 point favorites to beat NE in SB36. How many folks took NE and the points? Ill surmise not the majority.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

Vegas odds are also sometimes based on who they think will win.

Ever see a spread that just didnt look right and sure enough Vegas knew something that everyone missed? I have.

A lot of money can be made at the start of every of an NFL season because Vegas always has point spreads that are off base because they dont have the teams dialed in yet. Just watch.

The perfect scenario for Vegas isnt equal money on both sides, its the majority of the the publics money on the wrong team. The Rams were 13 point favorites to beat NE in SB36. How many folks took NE and the points? Ill surmise not the majority.

I always get into this type of debate on this board, and your statement is correct (the other "theory" is incorrect.)

If Vegas truly only cared about equal betting on both sides, they sure are doing a crummy job. If you look at the actual betting on these games, the bets are rarely close to 50% and usually at 70% or greater in favor of one team. Simply put, it's tough to predict momentum and betting trends, as public perception changes during the week. That is exactly why objectivity, computer simulations, and inside information is critical. Yes, Vegas may adjust lines a point or two to hedge their bets, but overall the money is made by projecting, as close as possible, a 50/50 bet.

Also, suppose that the Jacksonville Jaguars were playing the New York Giants. Vegas anticipates a gigantic amount of money bet on the Giants from the NY market, and to even the bets on both sides, they would need to adjust the real line (Giants -7) to try to attract equal betting (Giants -11). Don't you think sharp bettors would absolutely annihilate them? More likely, Vegas would move the real, prediction-based line to Giants -7.5 -8, a small change to hope to attract more balanced betting but a far cry from the type of strategy that many people claim they use.

So Vegas is never going to be "balanced" in the sense that they make a profit from the vig on every bet, and there are rarely games where they are going to win either way. Their goal is to win half the games and lose half the games (win where the majority is wrong, lose when the majority is right.) The difference is that when they lose, and the majority is right, they get a discount on the payout (the vig of 5-10%), while the bettor never gets that same discount. That's the real business model, folks.