Pats analysis of 41 mocks

[ironwasp]

Some Redskins fans with even less useful things to occupy their time than me run a great site, Hail Redskins, that aggregates various mock drafts - at present 41 in total that are accessible without registration subscription and are up to date sufficiently to make sense.

I've been through it this morning to analyse the picks handed the Pats, and the results suggest that many of the picks I see listed on Pats Fans tally broadly with the way fans nationwide view the Pats needs.

The major point of difference is that while here there is a lot of debate about whether the draft if the place for us to get stronger at receiver, nationwide there is little debate, as others see the Pats jumping in in the first round.

Below I have broken down most popular player and position for each of the two picks and then combined. (numbers are numbers of time position/player is picked)

# 24 (from 41 drafts)

WR - 14
LB - 13 (this includes ends expected to play LB in NFL)
CB - 9
S - 4
DT - 1

Dwayne Bowe WR 6
Sidney Rice WR 5
Paul Posluszny LB 4
Aaron Ross CB 3
Robert Meachem WR 3
Jarvis Moss LB 3
Michael Griffin S 3
Quentin Moses LB 2
Marcus McAuley CB 2
Darelle Revis CB 2
Lawrence Timmons LB 2
Reggie Nelson S, Brandon Siler LB, Daymeion Hughes CB, PAtrick Willis LB, Leon Hall CB, and Quinn Pit**** DT were picked once each.

# 28

Michael Griffin S 4
Marcus McAuley 4
Jeff Samardzija WR 3
Sidney Rice WR 3
Antony Spencer LB 3
Brandon Siler LB 3
Robert Meachem WR 3
Dwayne Bowe WR 3
Brandon Merriweather S 2
Antony Gonzalez WR, Aaron Rouse S, Brian Leonard RB, Marshawn Lynch RB, Chris Houston CB, Paul Posluszny LB, Patrick Willis LB, HB Blades LB, Lawrence Timmons LB, Lamarr Woodley LB, Daymeion Hughes CB, Buster Davis LB, Justin Harrell DT

Across the two picks therefore, the most popular players are:

Dwayne Bowe 9
Sidney Rice 8
Michael Griffin 8
Marcus McAuley 6
Robert Meachem 6
Paul Posluszny 5
Brandon Siler 4
Antony Spencer 3
Jeff Samardzija 3
Jarvis Moss 3

Make of it all what you will, but I don't see us going WR in the first round and in my mock draft we'd likely take a combination of Marcus McAuley and Michael Griffin at 24 and 28.

 

[carolinatony]

I am surprised to see so many having us a take a WR as well.
Please no TE either in the first.

 

[skaIownsIyou]

one things clear..this year's draft will be exciting

 

[patchick]

I've always thought that someone could come up with an incredibly accurate mock by tallying mock drafts posted by fans on individual team bboards like this one. None of us have the contacts or league-wide perspective that a national writer has. But we're able to look closer at our own team's needs and tendencies. Instead of saying "ok, LB is a need for the Pats, what LB is available" we're looking at characteristics specific to a 3-4 LB in the Pats' system. It's surely the same for every team.

 

[chunkypony]

Excellent post.

This brings up the WR topic again, the direction which I do NOT think that Pats will go in. I like some combination of a LB/CB/S in the first two picks.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

I've always thought that someone could come up with an incredibly accurate mock by tallying mock drafts posted by fans on individual team bboards like this one. None of us have the contacts or league-wide perspective that a national writer has. But we're able to look closer at our own team's needs and tendencies. Instead of saying "ok, LB is a need for the Pats, what LB is available" we're looking at characteristics specific to a 3-4 LB in the Pats' system. It's surely the same for every team.

I think that might be true, so long as they actually went team-by-team (i.e., get the Redskins' pick by looking at Redskins' mocks, the JEST by looking at JEST mocks [eww ], etc.). Fantasy Football Jungle gives "rolling stats" on their mocks, and this is what people on that site are trying to do for the Patriots:

Top 7 targeted positions in the first two rounds
1. WR: 238 (28.3%)
2. CB: 130 (15.5%)
3. DE: 117 (13.9%)
4. S: 104 (12.4%)
5. OLB: 97 (11.5%)
6. ILB: 88 (10.5%)
7. OT: 18 (2.1%)

 

[ironwasp]

One of the reasons I wanted to do this was to get a perspective of where other felt our laring holes were and whether they tallied with the generality of opinion on the board. Sometime I wonder if we are too close really to see what's going on, and a perspective from a distance is interesting.

I suspect that our mock picks are skewed by the fact that this looks like a decent draft at receiver, particularly at the high end. While it is clear, to me at least, that receiver is a need for the Pats, and other fans will certainly see that, I don't believe it's a need that can be ideally filled in the draft this year.

 

[spacecrime]

I am surprised to see so many having us a take a WR

I'm not. The perception of talking heads is that we doomed ourselves by letting Deion out of his contract. We must replace him with someone either well-known or a high draft pick or we will never get anywhere.

 

[spacecrime]

one things clear..this year's draft will be exciting

I'm looking forward to it.

 

[Seneschal2]

Sometime I wonder if we are too close really to see what's going on, and a perspective from a distance is interesting.

In general I'd say it's wise to step out of the forest to see the trees (I live in the woods ), but in this instance, where are these fans getting their info from -- the media? Of course they are. Pats fans know better than to allow the media to influence our opinions (yeah right ). But seriously, we know the Pats WR corps could use an upgrade...but we also know that the main perceived problem early on wasn't necessarily a lack of talent, but an introduction of new faces to the offense. So we should expect a first round WR to learn the offense from the get-go? Nope.

Perhaps with the 24th pick we can find a player who will make more of an immediate impact than a WR would. And because of this, that player may be more highly valued (in that slot).

Drafting for value and finding a BB-type player is a concept that even Pats fans are still learning. I certainly wouldn't expect fans from other teams and the general media to grasp this philosophy at all. TE anyone?

 

[ironwasp]

In general I'd say it's wise to step out of the forest to see the trees (I live in the woods ), but in this instance, where are these fans getting their info from -- the media? Of course they are. Pats fans know better than to allow the media to influence our opinions (yeah right ). But seriously, we know the Pats WR corps could use an upgrade...but we also know that the main perceived problem early on wasn't necessarily a lack of talent, but an introduction of new faces to the offense. So we should expect a first round WR to learn the offense from the get-go? Nope.

Perhaps with the 24th pick we can find a player who will make more of an immediate impact than a WR would. And because of this, that player may be more highly valued (in that slot).

Drafting for value and finding a BB-type player is a concept that even Pats fans are still learning. I certainly wouldn't expect fans from other teams and the general media to grasp this philosophy at all. TE anyone?

While I agree with most of that, I would just say this: most of those fnas with the time, energy and interest to write their own mocks - some of which are incredibly detailed pieces of works - probably watched the Pats play the Colts, Chargers, Jets, Bears and maybe other games, so alongside the info they get from the media, they have the eivdence of their own eyes to follow, and that probably showed them that receiver is a big need.

 

[Box_O_Rocks]

TE anyone?

Okay, but I don't see one with first round value in his overall skills. The better looking TE with overall skillsets seem to be in the mid to late rounds, the higher rated TEs all seem to be receivers with limited blocking skills.

 

[Ochmed Jones]

None of the TE's in this draft are the stretch the defense type (Above average speed and hands) that teams value so highly. However there are a number of TE's with good size that could easily develop into above average blcokers.

It looks like there are 6 potential first round WR's on the board. By the time we pick 4 could be off the board. In this draft the 5th best WR is clearly better value than the best TE.

 

[patsox23]

The conventional widom may be that the Patriots need/will take a WR in round one. A lot of Patriots fans think they will. I guess I wouldn't be shocked or anything, but I kind of doubt it. The need-for-WR angle is short-sighted and silly. Why do people think that Chad Jackson is the ONLY rookie WR ever to do next-to-nothing? It's silly. It happens ALL THE TIME.

Meanwhile, as the season, and post-season progressed, so did Brady's sync with Caldwell and Gaffney. We're much more needy in the areas of DB and LB.

 

[patpatriot]

I think that the Pats will let Graham walk and will draft Zack Miller with one of their first rounders. Look for the other one to be used on one of several similarly-skilled CBs or possibly a DE to LB conversion project.

 

[Seneschal2]

Okay, but I don't see one with first round value in his overall skills. The better looking TE with overall skillsets seem to be in the mid to late rounds, the higher rated TEs all seem to be receivers with limited blocking skills.

I agree. Was just a far-fetched way of saying we don't really know what to expect from BB. No position would shock me...but several would surprise (TE and others).

 

[notex]

plz no sidney rice....

 

[psychoPat]

.... The perception of talking heads is that we doomed ourselves by letting Deion out of his contract. We must replace him with someone either well-known or a high draft pick or we will never get anywhere.

And certainly not to the Final Four !

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

[quote
Jeff Samardzija WR 3
[/quote]

I think you have to eliminate him based on the $10 million baseball contract he just signed. Or at the least drop him to the 6th or 7th round. Why would a team 'waste' a top pick on someone who won't play for several years, if at all.......

 

[ATippett56]

Make of it all what you will, but I don't see us going WR in the first round and in my mock draft we'd likely take a combination of Marcus McAuley and Michael Griffin at 24 and 28.

McCauley? McCauley completely fell apart his senior year and lost his starting job in the last month of the season.

12/07/06 - PRO PROSPECTS: CB Marcus McCauley - A second-team All-WAC selection last season, McCauley entered this season as a possible first- or second-round NFL pick. However, Fresno coach Pat Hill pulled McCauley from the starting unit in the season's final month, and it's unclear just how far his stock has fallen. A strong NFL combine would fix some of that, of course.