What is neither Samuel or Graham are re-signed?

[cstjohn17]

I don't think this is an unrealistic scenario... Samuel is looking for big $$ and Graham's is an injury prone, blocking TE that may not warrant large dollars.

I like both players and hope they stay, if they leave the Pats can use the $9-12 million across various roster spots.

Impact to offseason

1) Samuel leaves - Team loses its top corner and may be limited in how much 1:1 coverage it can play. If Samuel leaves highly likely a mid level vet is brought in as well as a Day 1 draft pick. I think our secondary could survive if the front 7 is re-stocked. Specifically the ILBs need to get upgraded, I would rather speed the money on the front 7 than the secondary.

2) Graham leaves - Team loses a very physical presence and a dominat in-line blocker. Graham misses a lot of time, but his impact is noticable when he is on the field. If he leaves a replacement to block can be brought in but his leadership will be missed.

Where does the money go?
Random names
LB - A. Thomas (Balt), Johnson (Balt), London-Fletcher (Bills), Briggs (Bears), June (Colts)
S- Hamlin (Seattle), Grant (Jags)
WR - Bennett, Curtis, Stallworth
RB - Ahman Green, Lewis, Duckett

Extend players - Warren?
Others???

 

[spacecrime]

Graham misses a lot of time, but his impact is noticable when he is on the field. If he leaves a replacement to block can be brought in

Graham has played in 63 of 80 possible regualr season games since he was drafted, and average of 13 out of 16 games per season. I don't think this constitutes missing "a lot" of time.

Bringing in a blocking tight end does not replace Graham. There are a lot of superior blocking tight ends. Rod Rutledge was one. The value of players like Graham and Watson is that they are the rare TE who are exceptional blockers and exceptional receivers.

With a blocking TE, the defense knows the guy is in there to block, and gets a better field for the play. With Graham and Watson, and now hopefully Thomas, the defense must play honest. When the DE gets by one of our TEs he has to ask, "Did I beat the guy or did he let me because he is going to catch a pass in the flat?"

I would rather see the pats keep Graham if they only kept one of Graham/Samuel. Samuel is easier to replace.

 

[cstjohn17]

Graham has played in 63 of 80 possible regualr season games since he was drafted, and average of 13 out of 16 games per season. I don't think this constitutes missing "a lot" of time.

Bringing in a blocking tight end does not replace Graham. There are a lot of superior blocking tight ends. Rod Rutledge was one. The value of players like Graham and Watson is that they are the rare TE who are exceptional blockers and exceptional receivers.

With a blocking TE, the defense knows the guy is in there to block, and gets a better field for the play. With Graham and Watson, and now hopefully Thomas, the defense must play honest. When the DE gets by one of our TEs he has to ask, "Did I beat the guy or did he let me because he is going to catch a pass in the flat?"

I would rather see the pats keep Graham if they only kept one of Graham/Samuel. Samuel is easier to replace.

I guess I have to disagree with most of your post.

Graham misses time, 3-4 games each year and has been out 9 games in the past two seasons. I agree he is more than just a blocker, but is not an exceptional receiver. Watson is a very good receiving TE, but no where near exceptional as a blocker.

I think the general consensus is that a #1 CB is much harder to replace than a #2 TE. However Graham will be 1/2 of the cost which could make him more appealing.

Back to the original question and premise, I think the Pats will be fine if Graham and Samuel leave.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

I would rather see the pats keep Graham if they only kept one of Graham/Samuel. Samuel is easier to replace.

Who are they going to replace Samuel with?

This draft is very weak on CBs and the FA market shows little promise.

IMO, this team is dead in '07 w/o Samuel. They have to pay him. Against SD and Indy the Pats relied heavily on the ability of their CBs to play on an island, which enabled them to focus on the short/interior zones vs TEs and RBs. Without Samuel, the Pats won't be able to get away with that. Moreover, the Pats interior D was exposed by Indy and SD. Subtract Asante, and this team will have a tough time just making the playoffs.

 

[chunkypony]

I think that we will make the playoffs if both are unsigned, but not much else would be done. An Asante and Graham-less Patriot squad might win a plyoffs game, but they certainly are not making it to the Super Bowl.

As mentioned above, the SD and Indy game relied heavily on 1:1 corner play. Our rushing game also suffered heavily in these games. I think if we allow our running game to get worse by not signing Grahambo, or to take our chances on another corner, we will be in trouble. If we let only one of these things happen, I think the Patriots will be better off.

 

[Digger44]

Where does the money go?
Random names
LB - A. Thomas (Balt), Johnson (Balt), London-Fletcher (Bills), Briggs (Bears), June (Colts)
S- Hamlin (Seattle), Grant (Jags)
WR - Bennett, Curtis, Stallworth
RB - Ahman Green, Lewis, Duckett

Extend players - Warren?
Others???

You need to do some rethinking on the guys names you put up.

A. Thomas -- Great LB for our system, but majority says he will go with the $$$. Possible franchise tag, but the Ravens have cap issues, so maybe not.

J. Johnson -- Thr next Mike Vrabel IMO. Solid guy and diverse. We need to get him.

London Fletcher -- Interesting guy that hasn't been talked about too much. Could be a fit, but where is the $?

L Briggs -- Can you say fanchise?

C June -- Horrible fit in the 3-4 offense.

Stallworth -- Has said on every sports show on the planet in the last two weeks that he is going back to Philly.

Lewis & Duckett??? What??? They are not even free agents. What am I missing here?

 

[mgteich]

We'd be doooooooooooomed

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

I think that we will make the playoffs if both are unsigned, but not much else would be done. An Asante and Graham-less Patriot squad might win a plyoffs game, but they certainly are not making it to the Super Bowl.

As mentioned above, the SD and Indy game relied heavily on 1:1 corner play. Our rushing game also suffered heavily in these games. I think if we allow our running game to get worse by not signing Grahambo, or to take our chances on another corner, we will be in trouble. If we let only one of these things happen, I think the Patriots will be better off.

Graham is overrated as a blocker. He's good, but not great. In truth, he's a 4th round talent based on his poor hands. I hope that the team dumps the 2-TE sets in favor of more FB/I-formations. Maroney struggled in the 2-TE single back sets.

The Pats have several gaping holes:

FS: I like Hawkins but he was slowing down towards the end of the season before getting hurt at Indy. Wilson has been terrible the last two years and seems to have hit a wall in his career. The 2004 draft is killing this team.

RT: Kaczur had a sophomore slump in '06. O'Callahan's injuries showed why he dropped to the 5th round in the '06 draft. Both players are young and show promise, so there's hope here.

ILB: It's illogical to count on Tedy to get better and to rely on a 38 year old Seau to fix this problem. The Pats have taken Ted and Tedy for granted over the years and are paying a dear price for it now. It will take years to develop ILBs through the draft.

OLB: Depth is one concern, and aging Mike Vrabel is another. TBC isn't likely to come back. Fortunately, this draft is teeming with DE hybrids. The Pats should get at least one quality prospect with their 2 #1s.

RB: If you look at the numbers, the Pats running game was completely ineffective vs SD and Indy. I don't like drafting skill players early, and the Pats made some big mistakes taking Maroney and Jackson (trade up in 2nd). I didn't like Maroney back when the pick was announced and I changed my mind after the first half of the season, but now I'm back to being sorry they took him #1. There are several things that irk me about Laurence: he's very indecisive and looks around too much, I don't like the way he carries the ball, he's slow to the hole, is effective only out of certain sets (Herschel Walker's problem), and his play dropped off significantly when he suffered that rib injury (note that the last is a general issue with skill players and not aimed specifically at Maroney). The best RBs from the '06 Draft were those north/south runners that had a quick burst to the hole: Jones-Drew, Addai. The honeymoon is over for Maroney and Jackson. If they don't play well in 2007, they will be trashed and BB/Pioli will lose cred.

SS: James Sanders is the only young DB that shows promise. He reminds me of Lawyer Milloy, a rover in college who's learning to cover in the pros. I like him because he's a good tackler, loves to hit, and isn't afraid of contact. The Pats would be foolish to keep RH at his current salary. At this point Sanders deserves the SS spot and Harrison must accept a significant pay cut or get cut. His age and his injuries make RH a cap liability. There is no quality depth at this position.

We don't need Samuel, we won in 2004 w/o him and we can do it again.

Wait. I just remembered, Samuel was our #1 CB after Law went down and he was so good, the Pats were able to shift coverage to help Gay on the other side.

Add CB to the list of holes plus the brutal schedule and the Pats, at best, will become playoff fodder.

#1CB > blocking TE that you can get in any draft or FA pickup.

BTW, imagine this happening: The Kickoff Thursday game will be NE at Indy and the Colts embarrass us by winning 40-27 thanks to a few Peyton TDs. Then for the next 16 weeks, the talk shows and the Media will lament that the Pats should have re-signed Samuel. What a way to start a season.

 

[Jimke]

If Samuel is not re-signed, the Pats will be weak at both linebacker and

cornerback. Our defensive line may be very good but would be hard

pressed to cover these defficiencies. Our defense gave up 32 second

half points against the Colts and cannot stand any further weakening.

Graham's loss would not be as serious but would affect our

running game somewhat.

 

[unoriginal]

Graham is overrated as a blocker. He's good, but not great. In truth, he's a 4th round talent based on his poor hands. I hope that the team dumps the 2-TE sets in favor of more FB/I-formations. Maroney struggled in the 2-TE single back sets..... (it goes on)

:blahblah::blahblah::blahblah::blahblah:

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

:blahblah::blahblah::blahblah:

Wow! You must have been a captain of your HS debating team.

 

[thecrazyeye]

"The Pats would be foolish to keep RH at his current salary. At this point Sanders deserves the SS spot and Harrison must accept a significant pay cut or get cut. His age and his injuries make RH a cap liability. There is no quality depth at this position."

why in the world would you even consider cutting Rodney? He showed he is a difference maker on this defense, and the injuries he has gotten arent his fault. Someone rolled into his knee, someone put a helmet in his knee and another time he fell awkwardly on his shoulder.
Rodney is the heart of the defense and i think even considering cutting him is stupid
why not keep Rodney, who is a difference maker and let him groom Sanders, who is not a difference maker (yet), to be his replacement down the road

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

"The Pats would be foolish to keep RH at his current salary. At this point Sanders deserves the SS spot and Harrison must accept a significant pay cut or get cut. His age and his injuries make RH a cap liability. There is no quality depth at this position."

why in the world would you even consider cutting Rodney? He showed he is a difference maker on this defense, and the injuries he has gotten arent his fault. Someone rolled into his knee, someone put a helmet in his knee and another time he fell awkwardly on his shoulder.
Rodney is the heart of the defense and i think even considering cutting him is stupid
why not keep Rodney, who is a difference maker and let him groom Sanders, who is not a difference maker (yet), to be his replacement down the road

Sanders is in his 3rd season and has shown that he's ready to start at SS. RH has had two knee injuries and a broken shoulder blade and will be 35 in December. It's unrealistic to count on aging players to carry a significant load on D. Plus, RH has missed consecutive postseasons and has played in less than half the regular season in the last two years. I like RH and would like to see him remain, but the Pats have to spend lots of money this offseason to improve (at least mantain) their defense and keeping RH at his current salary is not a good cap move.

JMHO

 

[fgssand]

Must keep young talent....

Must not let repeat of Branch - Givens exodus.

Must keep team captains and young, upcoming talented CB's.

Must spend 27,000,000 on players and not 2008 cap.

Must win Superbowls while 2007 & 2008 windows are open.

Must draft smart, find a FA or two and SIGN Samuel & Graham.

Must....simply must or we run risk of repeating last year when we were a player or two(Branch - inadequate back up for RH) and a play or two away (catch one ball, make one stop).

 

[BradyManny]

RB: I didn't like Maroney back when the pick was announced and I changed my mind after the first half of the season, but now I'm back to being sorry they took him #1....

Talk about fairweather, jesus H.

People really need to cut Maroney some damn slack. He had a GREAT rookie season and didn't hit the rookie wall until he damaged his ribs.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

Talk about fairweather, jesus H.

People really need to cut Maroney some damn slack. He had a GREAT rookie season and didn't hit the rookie wall until he damaged his ribs.

In 5 of his 11 games PRIOR to his rib injury, Maroney failed to average more than 3.6 ypc.

In the 6 games he had 4.0+ ypc...

Team ypc rankings in ( ).

Buffalo (29th)
Jets (27th)
Cincy (19th)
Minnesota (1st - only had 8 carries)
Indy (32nd)
Green Bay (17th)

I also posted that skill players are more affected by injury than players at other positions. You can call it "fairweather", hindsight, whatever. I'll call it critical thinking and analysis.

 

[unoriginal]

I also posted that skill players are more affected by injury than players at other positions. You can call it "fairweather", hindsight, whatever. I'll call it critical thinking and analysis.

Players at other positions? You mean non-skill positions?

RT: Kaczur had a sophomore slump in '06. O'Callahan's injuries showed why he dropped to the 5th round in the '06 draft. Both players are young and show promise, so there's hope here.

I guess when skill players get injured, the "honeymoon's over," but with line players, there's still hope, huh?

:blahblah::blahblah::blahblah::blahblah:

 

[BradyManny]

In the 6 games he had 4.0+ ypc...

Team ypc rankings in ( ).

Buffalo (29th)
Jets (27th)
Cincy (19th)
Minnesota (1st - only had 8 carries)
Indy (32nd)
Green Bay (17th)

Oh my god!! You mean he ran better against teams with bad run defenses than he did against teams with good run defenses!?! Holy shyt!! Release him now!!

I also posted that skill players are more affected by injury than players at other positions. You can call it "fairweather", hindsight, whatever. I'll call it critical thinking and analysis.

I prefer the term "negative nancy".

If Maroney disappointed as you seem to suggest, then why does it seem Belichick is moving the team towards zone blocking to suit his running game? It's obvious the running game wasn't up to par down the stretch, but there are many reasons for that, and I expect they will be worked out for next season.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

Oh my god!! You mean he ran better against teams with bad run defenses than he did against teams with good run defenses!?! Holy shyt!! Release him now!!



I prefer the term "negative nancy".

If Maroney disappointed as you seem to suggest, then why does it seem Belichick is moving the team towards zone blocking to suit his running game? It's obvious the running game wasn't up to par down the stretch, but there are many reasons for that, and I expect they will be worked out for next season.

Can't you repsond w/o namecalling and vitriol? It really makes you sound like a homer on Kool-Aid and insecure about your position.

BTW, you have to play great teams in the playoffs and Maroney has yet to show he can get it done if he's nicked up or that he can play well against playoff defenses.

As for BB's zone blocking and drafting Maroney in the first place, all I can say to that is ...

WHY????

Why fix what's not broken?

Why draft a RB in the first round?

The Pats SB RBs: 2001 & 2003 - Antwain Smith, a low-level FA considered to be a has-been. 2004 - Corey Dillon, a player who was traded for a 2nd round pick. Wouldn't it have been better to draft a defensive player or trade down for more picks like they've done in the past rather than take Maroney? How many times did the Pats run the ball in the playoffs?

Defense win championships. and it was our D that cost us at Indy.

Despite all I've said, I sincerely hope you are right and I'm 200,000% wrong, because if I am correct about Chad and Laurence, then this team could be in big trouble over the next 2-3 years. We're still paying dearly for the 2004 draft. We should be grateful that Wilfork unexpectedly fell to #21, since the rest of the picks have been duds (yes, Watson is a dud).

 

[VrabelMayeWin]

Whether they return or not isn't inherently important - what's important is they find appropriate value for their cap space - as Felget says, cap space doesn't make plays on the field.

I'm fine with re-signing Samuel and Graham. I'm also fine with losing Samuel and signing Adalius Thomas (or equivalent) and I'm fine with losing Graham and signing London Fletcher (or equivalent). Bottom line is it doesn't matter who the names are as long as the cap space brings in the talent.