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A little early, but: should the Patriots try to re-sign Wes Welker?

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If the cap is pretty much the same as 2012, Welker's gone. The Pats can go out there and get three quality guys for what they'll have to pay him.

With 7 coaching changes and new GMs around the league, all sorts of quality veterans will be expunged as teams build for new systems. Welker's $10 million/year can be much better spent on some younger guys who can contribute immediately and three/four years down the road.

$10+ million/year is just too much to sink into the slot position at the expense of other positions.

I'm afraid that is exactly what the Patriots are thinking too with the exception of him playing the slot. If the didn't value him or his position, they would not have franchised him or offered 2yr/$16m guaranteed.
 
I never said he would be a replacement for Welker, I said he would replace some of his production for a lot less money.

Again, do you pay Welker $10M/YR for 110+ catches, or do you pay Edelmen $1-2M/YR for 90 catches and use those savings to strengthen the team in other areas?


What helps the team more:

Wes Welker

or

Aqib Talib + Danny Woodhead?

Granted Woodhead may not be a great example because our RB position is very deep, but I think that Woodhead is a special player for us and is often undervalued. Hes like a white version of Kevin Faulk, he always seems to be able to gash defenses for huge chunks of yardage and is a great 3rd down back. Demps and Vereen though could be used to replace his production as a tandem, but Woodhead is a great player.



Its going to come down to how much of WWs production they think they can replace with Edelman. They know that they won't be able to replace all of it obviously, hes one of the best ever at what he does, but they can replace some of it. They won't go from 110 catches to 0, there will be a falloff but the amount of money they would save could be used somewhere else on the team. Sure it might not relate directly to offensive production from that position, but the team as a whole could still improve overall if the money was used wisely and not spent on wastes of oxygen like Ocho and Haynesworth.

Edelman doesn't have 90 catches in his NFL career and has never played a full season, yet you're granting him 90 catches in a season and you think he'll do that for under $2 million per?


 
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First, you're including players who shouldn't be included because of their play(Chung).


Why shouldn't Chung be included? As long as no team decides to be stupid and offer him some outrageous money, he should come at a reasonable price and provide excellent depth and some utility to our secondary and special teams.

Second, you're including players who's deals are down the road past when a 3 year Welker deal would be an issue, such as Jones and Hightower.

Umm, im not following you on this one. What makes you think that it has to be when their contracts expire to affect the team? Did the NEPs not just give Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski new deals in their 2nd year on the team?

Signing Welker could potentially impact extending guys like Chandler Jones or Hightower. If they keep improving and playing at a high level, they might want to lock them up early the same way they did with their TEs because it will ultimately save them more money. Every year the market for each position goes up, which is why I think that BB decided to extend both of his TEs 2 years early to avoid what the market would have been like if he had waited for their contracts to expire.

So no, im not sensationalizing that much, it is a very real possibility that they could be in a situation where they're still eating a huge cap hit from Welker which would prevent them from extending one of those guys.

Using Brandon Bolden as an example is laughable because no one cares about him, hes a JAG and Ivan knows it. Using him as his example is irresponsible and misleading. The guys I mentioned are real players, key contributors to the team that will need new contracts. Jones and Hightower may not be impacted as much (unless like I said they wanted to extend them early), but the others I mentioned are definitely players that need to be considered and could directly be affected by another monster contract to WW.


Im a huge WW fan, and I was saying in the Pats message board years and years ago that they needed to extend him and give him a raise, because he earned it and I knew if they waited until the end of the deal it was going to cost them BIG, and thats exactly what they did.. they waited until the end, and now its going to cost them big and they may not want to risk that much cap money into a 32 year old player that makes a living in the middle of the field at 5'9" and under 200 lbs.
 
So Welker only sets records because he gets the chance to be on the field and anyone else can do that? 1 game 4 years ago makes him equal to the best ever at his role? Your argument is foolish.

.



No, you're foolish for only quoting a part of my post to try and paint your picture. I never said he would replace him, I said he would replace some of his production.

Its a pretty obvious point that Edelman is not going to be tearing up the stat sheet when he has Welker, Hernandez, Gronk and Lloyd in front of him. Welker is really the one in front of him mostly, and thats because Welker is the bees knees at his position.

Getting rid of Welker doesn't make the production go from awesome to zero, it just goes down.
 
Why shouldn't Chung be included? As long as no team decides to be stupid and offer him some outrageous money, he should come at a reasonable price and provide excellent depth and some utility to our secondary and special teams.

Because he's not good.
 
According to you a guy who caught 11 passes in 2010 and 2011 COMBINED (yes that is less than Welker caught in a signle game twice this year and last as well) could easily replace him. Trade him for a 7th.


Why don't you stop putting words in people's mouths, I never said he could easily replace him. Your posts are obnoxious, you just make stuff up and put words in people's mouths.

I've already explained myself like 3 different times in a post, so I'm done wasting my time with you.
 
....Umm, im not following you on this one. What makes you think that it has to be when their contracts expire to affect the team? Did the NEPs not just give Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski new deals in their 2nd year on the team?...

Money is only an issue when money's an issue. Your argument is ludicrous. I'll leave it at that, because I assume Andy will fillet it with much more gusto than I have for dealing with this sort of silliness regarding Welker for the 1000th time.
 
Money is only an issue when money's an issue. Your argument is ludicrous. I'll leave it at that, because I assume Andy will fillet it with much more gusto than I have for dealing with this sort of silliness regarding Welker for the 1000th time.

You're saying yuo have no argument so you're going to wait for your big brother to come in and put words in my mouth to twist my point around so that he can try to discredit it. Pretty interesting that according to you my argument is "ludicrous" when I backed it up with examples that have already happened on the Patriots. They extended 2 of their players 2 years early in their deals, and they may want to do it again at some point.

What is ludicrous is the idea that "Money is only an issue when money is an issue." Sounds like Dan Synder talking.. Sounds like those people that pay off one credit card with another credit card.. You have to constantly be managing your cap and thinking 2 or even 3 years into the future with every contract that you make to avoid having money problems in the first place.


At the end of the day, there are no facts here, its all speculation and subjective opinion.

I feel that if Edelman was THE guy and he had to be counted on like Welker every single play, he could put up 80-90 receptions in this offense. Obviously that is a drop off from Welker, so you have to look at what the savings are from WW to Edelman, then with that money how much talent can you add to the team in other areas, and will that talent ultimately make the team more effective OVERALL. The offensive production might go down a bit, but if the defensive production goes up then they ultimately could be better.

I think it also comes down to the fact that some people saw this coming years ago and have had time to mentally adjust and deal with it. I knew if they didn't give him his extension years ago, they would be at this exact point and would have a very real chance of losing Welker.

He is not a Calvin Johnson type receiver, he does not warrant that kind of money because he doesn't impact the game in the way that a C. Johnson does. He can't stretch the field, he can't jump over people and fight for a jump ball in double or triple coverage. He relies on his quickness and his knowledge of the offense, and at 32 years old you just don't know when that quickness is going to start fading. He also makes a living in the middle of the field, Welker has taken some big shots and at some point he may not be able to get back up from one of those hits.. If that happens, then you have a $10M/YR WR being paid to rehab. Granted, Welker has proven to be tough and durable, but hes at that age now where some players have shown a dropoff in production. I'd be fine with them giving him 3/30, but I think hes going to want more than that and hes going to want at least a 4-5 year deal to retire on.

Welker is almost identical to what Marvin Harrison was around this same time in his career. The Colts gave Harrison a mega contract and a few years later he retired and they were getting raped with his cap hits.

The Colts and a few other teams got bailed out because of the uncapped year, which allowed teams to recover from all of their cap debt so to speak.
 
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You're saying yuo have no argument so you're going to wait for your big brother to come in and put words in my mouth to twist my point around so that he can try to discredit it. Pretty interesting that according to you my argument is "ludicrous" when I backed it up with examples that have already happened on the Patriots. They extended 2 of their players 2 years early in their deals, and they may want to do it again at some point.

No, I'm saying that it's a really lousy argument that's been offered goodness knows how many times, and Andy seems to still enjoy refuting it (as does Ivan, for that matter), while I'm bored by the whole thing.
 
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No, I'm saying that it's a really lousy argument that's been offered goodness knows how many times, and Andy seems to still enjoy refuting it (as does Ivan, for that matter), while I'm bored by the whole thing.


Fair enough
 
I never said he would be a replacement for Welker, I said he would replace some of his production for a lot less money.

Again, do you pay Welker $10M/YR for 110+ catches, or do you pay Edelmen $1-2M/YR for 90 catches and use those savings to strengthen the team in other areas?
In the last three seasons, Julian Edelman has totaled 32 pass receptions. In the last three seasons, Julian Edelman has missed eleven games.

Julian Edelman NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Wes Welker has missed only four regular season games in his entire career.

What helps the team more:

Wes Welker

or

Aqib Talib + Danny Woodhead?

Granted Woodhead may not be a great example because our RB position is very deep, but I think that Woodhead is a special player for us and is often undervalued. Hes like a white version of Kevin Faulk, he always seems to be able to gash defenses for huge chunks of yardage and is a great 3rd down back. Demps and Vereen though could be used to replace his production as a tandem, but Woodhead is a great player.
The market for top flight cornerbacks is now 5 years, $50 million. A second tier cornerback such as Richard Marshall received a 3 year, $16 million contract from the Miami Dolphins in March 2012. The New England Patriots have three cornerbacks under contract (McCourty, Dennard, Dowling) while only one true wide receiver under contract (Lloyd) for the 2013 NFL Season.

As for Danny Woodhead, the New England Patriots have four halfbacks (Ridley, Bolden, Vereen, Demps) and two fullbacks (Larsen, Fiammetta) already under contract for the 2013 NFL Season.
 
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In the last three seasons, Julian Edelman has totaled 32 receptions. In the last three seasons, Julian Edelman has missed eleven games.

Julian Edelman NFL Football Statistics - Pro-Football-Reference.com

Wes Welker has missed only four regular season games in his entire career.

The market for top flight cornerbacks is now 5 years, $50 million. A second tier cornerback such as Richard Marshall received a 3 year, $16 million contract from the Miami Dolphins in March 2012. The New England Patriots have three cornerbacks under contract (McCourty, Dennard, Dowling) while only one true wide receiver under contract (Lloyd) for the 2013 NFL Season.

As for Danny Woodhead, the New England Patriots have four halfbacks (Ridley, Bolden, Vereen, Demps) and two fullbacks (Larsen, Fiammetta) already under contract for the 2013 NFL Season.

IMO - I got a feeling that Welker will be back with the Patriots in 2013 season. Whether that is another tag, or a multi-yr contract, I dont know....

As for this thread, throwing out other Patriots comparison, such as Talib+Woodhead, etc.. makes not sense in terms of the question of sign or not sign Welker.

A NFL players value (a key component) is based on their past productivity, of course. So, has Welker's play over each sequential years drop?
 
A NFL players value (a key component) is based on their past productivity, of course. So, has Welker's play over each sequential years drop?
Aside from future Hall-of-Fame wide receiver Randy Moss, consider all the wide receiver failures via the draft, trade, free agency since the 2003 NFL Season:

Bethel Johnson
P.K. Sam
Chad Jackson
Reche Caldwell
Jabar Gaffney
Doug Gabriel
"Bam" Childress
Donte Stallworth
Kelley Washington
Sam Aiken
Joey Galloway
Torry Holt
Brandon Tate
Taylor Price
Chad Ochostinko
Tiquan Underwood
Jeremy Ebert
Greg Salas

Yet some posters insist that Wes Welker is replaceable when ten seasons worth of evidence is contrary to that fact.
 
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Aside from future Hall-of Fame wide receiver Randy Moss, consider all the wide receiver failures via the draft, trade, free agency since the 2003 NFL Season:

Bethel Johnson
P.K. Sam
Chad Jackson
Reche Caldwell
Jabar Gaffney
Doug Gabriel
Donte Stallworth
Kelley Washington
Sam Aiken
Joey Galloway
Torry Holt
Brandon Tate
Taylor Price
Chad Ochostinko
Tiquan Underwood
Jeremy Ebert

Yet some posters insist that Wes Welker is replaceable when ten seasons worth of evidence is contrary to that fact.

It's mystifying. It seems like the word "slot" clouds some people's minds about Welker.
 
IMO - I got a feeling that Welker will be back with the Patriots in 2013 season. Whether that is another tag, or a multi-yr contract, I dont know....

As for this thread, throwing out other Patriots comparison, such as Talib+Woodhead, etc.. makes not sense in terms of the question of sign or not sign Welker.

A NFL players value (a key component) is based on their past productivity, of course. So, has Welker's play over each sequential years drop?

It make all the sense in the world and needs to be factored into the discussion. If you will have $14m in cap space in 2013, how do you get WW, Talib and Vollmer all on the 2013 roster? You can't. Unless there is some magic cap maneuvering done or major hometown discounts granted, 1 of the 3 will not be on the 2013 roster. That is a fact.
 
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Getting rid of Welker doesn't make the production go from awesome to zero, it just goes down.


Obviously it's up to Belichick to try and figure out the best path to success, but for me it isn't necessarily as much about replacing productivity as it is trying to replace the chemistry with Brady and the offense, not to mention the nose for the chains and insane toughness. For me it's the reliability that defines Welker. Reliability and Durability...In those areas we will certainly take a severe hit no matter who steps in to try to fill the role.
 
Getting rid of Welker doesn't make the production go from awesome to zero, it just goes down.
Wrong!

Taking account all the wide receivers acquired since March 2012:

Jabar Gaffney - 0
Anthony Gonzalez - 0
Jeremy Ebert - 0
Greg Salas - 0
Kamar Aiken - 0
Donte Stallworth - 1

Add the six million dollar bum to the equation:

Chad Ochostinko - 0

Considering Ponce de Leon never found the Fountain of Youth, neither will wide receiver Deion Branch.
 
If you will have $14m in cap space in 2013, how do you get WW, Talib and Vollmer all on the 2013 roster?
Exaggerate much? Try $24 million in salary cap space, not $14 million.
 
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Aside from future Hall-of-Fame wide receiver Randy Moss, consider all the wide receiver failures via the draft, trade, free agency since the 2003 NFL Season:

Bethel Johnson
P.K. Sam
Chad Jackson
Reche Caldwell
Jabar Gaffney
Doug Gabriel
"Bam" Childress
Donte Stallworth
Kelley Washington
Sam Aiken
Joey Galloway
Torry Holt
Brandon Tate
Taylor Price
Chad Ochostinko
Tiquan Underwood
Jeremy Ebert
Greg Salas

Yet some posters insist that Wes Welker is replaceable when ten seasons worth of evidence is contrary to that fact.

Caldwell and Gaffney don't belong on your list.
 
Caldwell and Gaffney don't belong on your list.
Reche Caldwell was so valuable to the New England Patriots offense that the following season Reche Caldwell was not even on the roster.

Wes Welker provides sustained excellence to the New England Patriots offense.
 
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