A little early, but: should the Patriots try to re-sign Wes Welker?

[ATippett56]

I actually didnt mention the skill level of any tackle aside from Vollmer, not sure what you're trying to bash. Seriously, back off on the condescension, no one's trying to steal your lunch money.

You're the one throwing the hissy fit on the potential loss of Sebastian Vollmer via unrestricted free agency.

The New England Patriots already have contingency plans in place at the right offensive tackle position prior to the official commencement of the 2013 NFL Year (March 12, 2013). The New England Patriots also have the option to upgrade the offensive tackle position in the first three rounds of the 2013 NFL Draft.

The New England Patriots have no contingency plans in place at the wide receiver position prior to the commencement of the 2013 NFL Year (March 12, 2013) with only two wide receivers under contract for the 2013 NFL Season: Brandon Lloyd, Matt Slater (wide receiver in designation only)

 

[supafly]

Not even close on either account.

NFL Free Agent Master List '13 - Free Agency Update - Rotoworld.com



NFL Free Agent Master List '13 - Free Agency Update - Rotoworld.com

Wrong about what, lol?

Giving my personal opinion on what my bottom line amount would be for a past troubled player who comes with a lot of baggage and has had an attitude problem in the past + was probably going to be cut outright from a rookie coach's team, lol? I didn't realize one could actually be incorrect about an opinion?

Or are you speaking of mayoclinic's words that there could be incentives involved in the Talib deal, which could be beneficial to both sides? How could he be wrong by stating that? It's certainly a possibility? I don't know since you had both sentences highlighted..

Talib came here for the Colts game. He played in the Colts, Jets, Dolphins, and Texans games. That's 4 games in total. He was injured vs SF and has rarely been seen ever since.

In those 4 games he broke up 2 passes and picked another one off.

He does play with a physical presence, but there are so many who attribute the turn around of the secondary solely on Talib. McCourty was already at safety...Arrington has obviously played the slot before...Dennard was already on the outside starting prior to Talib coming here....

Are you actually trying to tell me that Belichick may not consider saving approx. 7-8 million dollars next season (with DMcC's contract being due at the end of next year, mind you) by keeping all of the other pieces in place and trying to replace Talib's position via the draft or FA (or even potentially Dowling?)

Hell, he can even select a safety in a deep safety class via the draft and move McCourty back to CB, where he'd be paired with Dennard on the outside.

There are a TON of options. Talib is not irreplaceable by any means...

I'd be curious to hear Belichick's take on how much he's willing to go with him, but we'll find out soon enough. Hopefully he stays, but I wouldn't be remotely surprised if he left either.

 

[supafly]

I agree completely. I like Talib and feel like he has helped their secondaqry but his contributions have been way overblown. If people are right that his value is going to be 8-10 on the open market then there is no way Belichick is going to re-sign him. I seriously doubt that the Patriots go over 6 million a year for a guy who has only played a few games for them.

Talib is good but he's not Revis and has never proven himself to be a shutdown corner in the NFL. If he does then he'll be worth the money people are talking about, until then someone will simply be overpaying him based on wishful thinking, and that is how teams blow their cap, not by signing players who have proven their worth.

I couldn't agree with you more.

Like I said, considering what the overpriced market on CB's is these days, I would not be surprised to see something in the range of 4/29.5 million for Talib. (Credit to mayoclinic for referring to Carlos Rogers contract last season)

Personally though, I wouldn't budge much above the 6 million dollar number that you threw out and agreed with either, at least not at this particular time anyway. Another season may prove otherwise. That said, I certainly would not be upset if Belichick signed him to something in the range of Rogers last season, or maybe even slightly higher. I am just speaking on if it were my personal decision. (God forbid, right?)

There is also the thought of giving him a smaller "prove it" type of deal here, but that would still come with somewhat of a higher pricetag too. Or there is also the possibility of some incentives thrown in of course.

It will definitely be something that keeps us on our toes until the FA period starts, but I would not even put Welker and Talib's names in the same sentence outside of this thread, that's silly in my opinion.

 

[ATippett56]

I'd be curious to hear Belichick's take on how much he's willing to go with him, but we'll find out soon enough. Hopefully he stays, but I wouldn't be remotely surprised if he left either.

According to one NFL analyst, Aqib Talib is the top rated cornerback in the upcoming 2013 unrestricted free agent market. It's hard to argue against that analysis especially considering Brent Grimes is recovering from a torn Achilles tendon. Why would Aqib Talib even bother listening to discounts? 5 years $50 million is the current market for a top notch unrestricted free agent cornerback.

This message board has become so ridiculous that every potential unrestricted free agent should take the "home town discount" when that wasn't the case whatsoever with Brady, Wilfork, Mankins, Mayo, Welker.

Pay Wes Welker and if that means Talib and Vollmer depart, so be it.

 

[ATippett56]

Like I said, considering what the overpriced market on CB's is these days, I would not be surprised to see something in the range of 4/29.5 million for Talib. (Credit to mayoclinic for referring to Carlos Rogers contract last season)

That's a bullcrap deal and you know it. Carlos Rogers turned 31 years of age prior to the start of the 2012 NFL season when he signed the deal.

Carlos Rogers - San Francisco 49ers - 2013 Player Profile - Rotoworld.com

Aqib Talib turns 27 years of age in the month of February.

Furthermore, Cortland Finnegan turned 28 years of age prior to signing a 5 year, $50 million contract.

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/4035/cortland-finnegan

 

[ATippett56]

Giving my personal opinion on what my bottom line amount would be for a past troubled player who comes with a lot of baggage and has had an attitude problem in the past + was probably going to be cut outright from a rookie coach's team, lol? I didn't realize one could actually be incorrect about an opinion?

Explain the 5 year $55.5 million contract the Tampa Bay Buccaneers gave to troubled wide receiver Vincent Jackson. The same Vincent Jackson who is one strike away from a year long suspension based upon the league's personal conduct policy.

 

[ATippett56]

Or are you speaking of mayoclinic's words that there could be incentives involved in the Talib deal, which could be beneficial to both sides? How could he be wrong by stating that? It's certainly a possibility? I don't know since you had both sentences highlighted..

Why would Talib even bother with an incentivized deal when the market value for a top notch cornerback under the age of 29 is 5 years $50 million? Either you pay market value for a 27 year old cornerback or you don't.

 

[PatsFan2]

I agree with Tip...Talib didn't cause any problems here which would go on his resume. Knowing how many CB's we have had flamed out on this Team...Good CB's are very hard to find if you have one or even Two make sure you lock em up. I don't want to depend on the likes of Glas-I Dowling on this Team. As Tip pointed out Talib is just going into the prime of his career. The change of scenery have helped him and Definitely help us.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Posting as I think it's substantial which makes this entire thread almost irrelevent...

According to Spotrac.com, the Patriots 2012 cap hit is at $106,632,966, which takes into account $94,491,221 of active contracts (base salaries and bonuses), $18,801,745 in dead money and $6,660,000 in cap rollover. With this year's salary cap at $120.6 million, this means the Patriots should carry over about $14 million in cap space next year.

Unless they do some fancy financing with Brady and someone else, assuming they want fair market contracts, I don't see how they are able to pay WW, Vollmer and Talib.

Keep in mind Woody, Arrington, Chung (meh) and Edelman are also FAs.

Of the big 3, I don't see all 3 on the 2013 team. Would not be suprised if Woody, Arrington, Chung are gone. Seems to me that they'll make a hard push to keep Edelman as they are thin at WR.

 

[aluminum seats]

I still believe that Talib is a very good CB here and would like him for the future, but I also believe that he is being tremendously overvalued by some.

Pretty much agree w/this, at least based on what he's actually done here. Keep in mind that the secondary improved late season last year as well. Don't get me wrong, it seems clear that Talib (and the resulting position shifts) have markedly improved things, but looking to break the bank on Talib already seems a bit hasty.

For me, this falls cleanly into the trust Belichick category. I feel like whatever they end up doing there will most likely be the right decision.

By the way, good aggressive posting by a couple of guys here on Welker. Completely agree that he's the biggest FA the Pats will have. Honestly, if you don't think so, then you just don't value the receiver position very highly.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Pretty much agree w/this, at least based on what he's actually done here. Keep in mind that the secondary improved late season last year as well. Don't get me wrong, it seems clear that Talib (and the resulting position shifts) have markedly improved things, but looking to break the bank on Talib already seems a bit hasty.

For me, this falls cleanly into the trust Belichick category. I feel like whatever they end up doing there will most likely be the right decision.

By the way, good aggressive posting by a couple of guys here on Welker. Completely agree that he's the biggest FA the Pats will have. Honestly, if you don't think so, then you just don't value the receiver position very highly.

In the 12 years BB has been here, he has never doled out a big contract to a CB. He interited Law's and it has been said that BB was considering trading him/cutting him in 2000 and 2001 because his deal and the whole X thing in Buffalo.

We know about Asante.

Bodden's deal was mid-market.

Talib is a difference-maker. When his head is on right he is the complete package. He tackles. He plays zone. He can play man. He gets his hands on balls and can have them stick to his hands. The question is how much has his value been increased by his time here and decreased with the shenanigns in TB. Dont know yet..

 

[mgteich]

One possibility is THREE $4M corners, expecting that two will produce.

It obviously also depends on Belichick the most.

He hasn't typically wanted to join the overspending parade at the position of CB for too many players, IIRC. Not only that, he also has McCourty coming up next year too, where he simply won't have much of a choice in what he pays him. All accounts point to Belichick wanting McCourty here for the future in my opinion, so that's something to take into account this year with Talib's situation...or maybe it's not?

He may very well decide to go the route of trying to keep Arrington for the money that you mentioned (which also gives him starter capability in a pinch, although with a talent dropoff it certainly still counts), while replacing the money that would be sunk in retaining Talib.

Lots of chatter for a guy who came during the Colts game and has pretty much been out since the 49'ers game. He did break up 2 passes here and had the INT return, but there are alternatives that would still allow DMcC to stay at safety (he was there already), and to keep Arrington in the slot. After all, Dennard was already on the outside too.

I still believe that Talib is a very good CB here and would like him for the future, but I also believe that he is being tremendously overvalued by some. Then again, I've been wrong before, so keep in mind it's only my humble opinion.

 

[Deus Irae]

Obviously, a starting #1 corner and a starting nickel are in 2 different categories, as you indicate.

I would put a starting corner at around $8M a year.

I would put a starting nickel at about $4M a year.

Of course, we might get replacements for less than the above. It depends on the market in February.

So, just to make sure I've got this right, you would pay Arrington $4 million dollars a year?

 

[The Brandon Five]

Lots of chatter for a guy who came during the Colts game and has pretty much been out since the 49'ers game. He did break up 2 passes here and had the INT return, but there are alternatives that would still allow DMcC to stay at safety (he was there already), and to keep Arrington in the slot. After all, Dennard was already on the outside too.

What are they?

 

[PatsFan2]

Another load of crap!

Tom Brady survived with the following players at the right tackle position:

Tom Ashworth
Brandon Gorin
Nick Kaczur

And none are No Where as good as Vollmer...Vollmer might not be as expandable as some of us think.

 

[JackBauer]

Would not be suprised if Woody, Arrington, Chung are gone.

I would be shocked, actually, if Woodhead is gone next year.

 

[Ring 6]

First, i have never argued that there are no consequences to big money deals, there is obviously a cap and they have to be under it, however i don't agree that he is right because i don't think Seymour was going to be re-signed under any circumstances, they knew he wanted too much and weren't going to pay it.

How is that different than what I said?

Second, I have never argued simply to give Welker anything they demand but have argued that he would take a very fair deal to the patriots, which would be in the 4-40 area, and possibly less.

I didn't say you did.

Third, the question I posed was which re-signings did the Brady. Wilfork, and Mankins deals prevent from happening and still haven't seen evidence of any,

You can't expect to pick a player and indentify him as the consequence of someone elses contract. There are numerous additions not made or subtractions made that were influenced by each of those deals.

other than conjecture that it led them to trade seymour long before signing a deal with Wilfork, which was actually contentious and may not have even happened, in which case you would be arguing that a deal that didn't exist cost them Seymour.

We tagged Wilfork. So it DID happen. We couldn't tag both, we wouldn't pay both, one had to go. If there were no Wilfork on the roster, Seymour would very likely have been handled differently.

Fourth, they have blown tens and tens of millions of dollars on player moves that didn't help them, so if the concern is that they may overspend on Welker by a couple million a year then they should be able to make that meager amount up simply by being a little smarter in some of their riskieer moves.

You do realize that 'blowing tens of millions' has to be part of cap management considerations, since every team in the NFL carries dead money, signs free agents who underperform and make draft choices that turn out badly, right?
Your answer is you can afford more, you just have to make no mistakes?
That is too Pollyannaish to not chuckle at.

The concern is clear and obvious. The risk with Welker is higher than normal, because of the combination of his age, the beating he takes, and the risk of losing a step. IMO, the benefits of Welker far exceed those risks though, but you can't just ingone them.

Last point, the deal i recommended is 4-40, if you think that will break them by all means make that argument that they can't pay him that and why, i would be interested to see it.

I have said nothing of the sort. AGAIN, I think Welker is high risk, but higher reward, and he should be paid.

 

[Ring 6]

And none are No Where as good as Vollmer...Vollmer might not be as expandable as some of us think.

Depends on the price tag, and the real story of his health.
His replacement will be cheap.
It is very reasonable to me that the dropoff from Vollmer to whoever would replace him is much less than the upgrade that can be gotten elsewhere with the money.

 

[PatsFan2]

Depends on the price tag, and the real story of his health.
His replacement will be cheap.
It is very reasonable to me that the dropoff from Vollmer to whoever would replace him is much less than the upgrade that can be gotten elsewhere with the money.

AJ: Vollmer is a swing Tackle who can proctect a QB's blindside in a pinch. Who otherthan Vollmer could we insert at Left Tackle if Nate Solder goes down??? Vollmer has value and I think BB will value him.

 

[Ring 6]

It's certainly a realistic possibility, Andy. On one hand his back has to be a big concern in any long term deal, on the other hand, its his back that might keep the price for his services more reasonable than they would be if he were completely healthy

We all can acknowledge that, when healthy, Volmer is a top 5 RT in this league. Plus he's proven he can play LT well when needed.

Ya know if I had to choose between Welker and Volmer, the thing that would make me favor Volmer by just a hair, is this. Welker, and this goes for any WR, on a good day will impact the game 10-15 plays/game. OTOH, the OT will have an impact the game on all 70+ plays.

Welker impacts every play too. His impact is less on run plays, but it is still there. On pass plays that do not get thrown to him, he also draws coverage away from the target. You know better than to overlook that.
Finally, his presence alone affects the defensive call on every play making the other 10 players jobs easier.

The 2nd reason, is more mundane. The simple fact is that there are more people on this planet that can do what Wes Welker does, than can do what Sebastian Volmer can.

That is not true. There is no one who can do what Welker does as well as he does it. There are many who can play RT at the level Vollmer has this year.

The 3rd reason would be this. I would acknowledge that if we resign Edelman for, say, 3MM/yr he wouldn't be as good as the Wes Welker we sign for $10MM/yr. But the question I would ask, is Welker $7MM better? Would his production be 3 times better? More importantly forget about individual comparisons, would the offense as a whole be THAT much more productive? Would the money I saved by signing Edelman, make the team better being spent elsewhere?

You can make the exact same argument subtituting Vollmer and Cannon for Welker and Edelman.
But what you miss is that the design of the offense revolves around Welkers role. NO TEAM in the NFL will defend the Patriots the same with Edleman in Welkers place. It just won't happen. You take away from every other receiver on the field by doing that. Yes it has MUCH more than a 7,000,000 impact.

Again this isn't about Welker the player. He's great and productive. But are we a better team with him and not Volmer, or him and not Talib, not just next year but going forward.

Yes, we are.

I think most of the people on this board think that keeping Welker is a no brainer. It should be an easy decision. But I think its a lot harder than that. There are a lot of ripples that are created when you sign any player to a big contract, whether its Welker, Talib, OR Volmer. I, at least recognize, that, and I'm glad I don't have to make that choice.

Welker is more valuable to this team than anyone else who is a FA.

Hey MAYBE the choice doesn't come down to either Volmer of Welker. Maybe we let Talib walk, send McCourty back to CB, and draft a safety from what is supposed to be a deep and talented class this year and save enough money to pay BOTH Volmer and Welker.

Keep Talib, move McCourty back to corner, sign a topp safety, and draft another. Bring Welker back, draft. Championship.

The offense would benefit, but does the defense take a step back adding ANOTHER very talented but very young player? See Andy no easy answers.

I think the answers are clear. If you think you can't lose anything them you get to the point of no easy answers. If you think giving up Welker is smart, then you get to the point of ridiculous.