Broncos: Easiest path to the #1 seed ever?

[ivanvamp]

What so amazing about Manning's 9 -10 W/L record in the playoffs is that 4 of those 9 wins came in 1 year - the SB winning year.
Forehead is nowhere close to even sniffing a pathetic .500 playoff record without that one year of Joseph Addai and Bob Sanders leading the Colts to a ring.

As Patsfanin Philly pointed out, the D really stepped up as well. Peyton Manning's four game run that year was actually pretty bad. He did not play well, but the rest of the team stepped up. Which is what good teams do - when one part isn't functioning at a high level, other parts need to pick up the slack. But we need to remember that Peyton did not play well that postseason at all.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

You mean the year his defense bailed him out, when he had 3 TD and 7 ints and no QB rating above an 81 in any of the 4 playoff games????

Yup!!

And remember that "MVP" ( don't tell me there isn't a media bias for the Great White Dope) performance in the Super Bowl??

That Super Bowl where Colt RB Dominick Rhodes ran for 119 yds, Colt RB Joseph Addai ran for 77 yds, caught 66 yds for 143 total yds, the Colt defense forced 5 TO's including a pick 6 but it was the QB with a passer rating of 81.8 who threw for 247 yds for the game - 53 which came on a Reggie Wayne TD with 8 minutes left in the FIRST Qtr - after which the QB passed for a whopping 194 yds and 1 int over the remaining 52 minutes of the game and was awarded the MVP.

Good luck trying to win that much deserved MVP award, Adrian Peterson.

 

[DENVERBRONCOS2012]

Actually, they are the 5th lightest challenged in the regular season in the history of 1st seeds since the bye week novelty.

If you take every 1st seed of the AFC & NFC since the bye week was introduced (and therefore, the WC round: 1978), and analyze the records of the teams they beat in the regular season, the 2012 Denver Broncos' opponents have the 5th worst combined W-L %. Here are the top 10 worst and their subsequent result in the postseason:

SBC - SB Champion
SBR - SB Runner-up
CC - Lost in the Conference Championship
DIV - Lost in the Divisional Round

[B]Team/Record                   W-L%       PS result[/B]
1999 Rams (13-3)            0.32212         SBC
1999 Jaguars (14-2)         0.33036         CC
1991 Bills (13-3)           0.37019         SBR
1988 Bears (12-4)           0.38021         CC
2012 Broncos (13-3)         0.38462         ?
2000 Giants (12-4)          0.38542         SBR
1986 Browns (12-4)          0.39063         CC
2005 Seahawks (13-3)        0.40385         SBR
2006 Bears (13-3)           0.40385         SBR
1984 49ers (15-1)           0.40833         SBC

Wins by the 1999 St. Louis Rams:
vs Ravens (8-8)
vs Falcons (5-11)
@ Bengals (4-12)
vs 49ers (4-12)
@ Falcons (5-11)
vs Browns (2-14)
vs Panthers (8-8)
@ 49ers (4-12)
vs Saints (3-13)
@ Panthers (8-8)
@ Saints (3-13)
vs Giants (7-9)
vs Bears (6-10)

Here's a look to the opposite:

[B]Team/Record                   W-L%       PS result[/B]
2002 Raiders (11-5)         0.53125         SBR
1985 Rams (11-5)            0.52604         CC
2003 Patriots (14-2)        0.50893         SBC
2010 Patriots (14-2)        0.50446         DIV
2008 Giants (12-4)          0.50000         DIV
1993 Cowboys (12-4)         0.50000         SBC
1995 Cowboys (12-4)         0.48958         SBC
1989 Broncos (11-5)         0.48864         SBR
1996 Packers (13-3)         0.48558         SBC
1979 Chargers (12-4)        0.48438         DIV

Wins by the 2002 Oakland Raiders:
vs Seahawks (7-9)
@ Steelers (10-5-1)
vs Titans (11-5)
@ Bills (8-8)
@ Broncos (9-7)
vs Patriots (9-7)
@ Cardinals (5-11)
vs Jets (9-7)
@ Chargers (8-8)
vs Broncos (9-7)
vs Chiefs (8-8)

In case you wonder, 2012 Falcons are 14th in the list of lightest challenged 1st seeds. The opponents' record of both teams combined (DEN & ATL) is 0.39904, the 2nd worst in history for 1st seeds (1999, .32639).

Other NE 1st seeds:
2007 NE - 0.46875, 16th toughest
2011 NE - 0.42308, 19th easiest

NOTES
- As noted before, the W-L% shown is from the teams they beat, not from the entire schedule. If DEN would have beaten ATL/HOU/NE, we wouldn't have this discussion.
- This is a list based on strength of victory. Just like most of the websites (PFF, PFR, etc), when a team beats a certain opponent 2+ times, you MUST count their record the same amount of times. 1999 STL beat the 5-11 ATL twice, so it would be 10-22, rather than just 5-11.

Well the Broncos in 2012 opponents had a 46% win percentage. That according to your post is on the better side of strength of opponents....

 

[DENVERBRONCOS2012]

Don't get me wrong,its hard to win 2 games in a row in the NFL,let alone 11 games in a row but when you sit and look at the schedule Manning has had,its easy to see that the #1 seed was very obtainable once he settled in as their QB.

The 11 game winning streak consisted of opposing teams that had a combined 68-108 in wins vs. losses which includes division opponents twice and in a division is which the other 3 teams had a record of 13-35.

How lucky has Manning been who almost always throughout his career got chump teams in the division he plays in?

The 2012 Denver Broncos team has not had a visitor in Mile High who has had a winning record and their only loss at home was to a team that is in the playoffs and has a good record and all their losses includes teams in the playoffs.

The only 2 wins against playoff teams (Cincy & Balt) were on the road


Folks....The bottom line is Denver has beaten the Sisters Of The Poor all season and lost to most of the teams in the playoff picture.

Denver to me is the weakest #1 seed in the NFL in over a decade and is a pretender at 13-3

The first team to enter Mile High might very well walk out the winner
of that game.

At 13-3,I still think Denver is B.S. and like that kicker Vanderjagt once said,that team is "ripe for the picking"...he was wrong then but I think the 2012 Broncos are the lightest challenged 13-3 team ever.

My favorite stat is the one where the 2012 patriots have yet to beat a winning team on the road. We could say the 2012 Pats are not tested because of this. So what's make pats fans think their team will go into mile high and beat a top NFL team that is 7-1 at home?

And I do not know why you think beating two 10-6 teams, one a divisional leader that the pats could not beat and the other a wild card as worthy? lets not forget the Denver broncos blew out these teams on the road as well.

 

[patfanken]

Guys, this is starting to get tiresome. Lets agree on a couple of things and then move on to other discussions with Denver fans or better yet, wait until we know there is actually going to be a game between the 2 teams.

1. Peyton Manning is a great QB. He's a certain first ballot HOFer....and the 2nd best QB of his era.

2. The Universe doesn't exist where Tom Brady is EVER looking up at Peyton Manning. In virtually EVERY comparison mode Brady comes out better. From wins, playoff success, straight stats, comparing surrounding talent, and the fact Manning played in a dome, etc. There is simply NO comparison.

But so what - Both are great QB's and any game between them is an event the general public will enjoy.

3. The reality is that any game between the Broncos, and the Pats WON'T be about Manning and Brady. Football is still the ultimate team sport and the game will be won or lost for a lot of reasons that have NOTHING to do with Manning OR Brady.

So all servers that had to die to provide the bandwidth to create the thread, have died in vain. However entertaining, nothing that's been said in this discussion will have any meaning on the actual game (if it occurs) Not the comparative schedules, not the amount of points that were or weren't scored, whose defense is better or worse in the past. THAT game will be a distinctly individual moment between 2 very talented teams, and regardless of what has happened in the past, the team that plays the best, gets the bounces, and calls will win.

Its as simple as that.

 

[VJCPatriot]

That might be true but 13 wins is still 13 wins. The falcons are another 13 win team that I wouldnt have a lot of confidence in the way they backed into the playoffs.

But I'm gonna give the Broncs kudos. They waxed the teams that they were supposed to beat. That's part of football. The Pats division looks pretty darn weak as well. We swept them and there's not a single team over .500.

All that counts now is what you do in the playoffs. If Manning chokes at home, and the Broncs lose their first playoff game then that's a pretty big blow to his confidence and legacy.

 

[Deus Irae]

My favorite stat is the one where the 2012 patriots have yet to beat a winning team on the road. We could say the 2012 Pats are not tested because of this. So what's make pats fans think their team will go into mile high and beat a top NFL team that is 7-1 at home?

And I do not know why you think beating two 10-6 teams, one a divisional leader that the pats could not beat and the other a wild card as worthy? lets not forget the Denver broncos blew out these teams on the road as well.

Here's the thing....

The Patriots have only faced 2 teams with winning records on the road, those being the Ravens and the Seahawks. Now, I could point out simple truths about both games (ridiculous replacement officials in the Ravens match, a rookie making a mind-blowing mistake in the Seahawks match), but you'd just call them excuses. The reality is, though that both losses are 1 play and 1 point losses.

See, here's the problem with the Denver trolls that have come here. They've chosen to ignore context. You're doing the same thing.

 

[RhodyPatriot]

My favorite stat is the one where the 2012 patriots have yet to beat a winning team on the road. We could say the 2012 Pats are not tested because of this. So what's make pats fans think their team will go into mile high and beat a top NFL team that is 7-1 at home?

Because we don't think you're an elite team. You've had a terrific year but you're not an elite team. Your defense is not stopping this offense and while Peyton and the Denver O will get their points Peyton is not a great playoff performer and is much more likely to make a critical mistake than complete a big play to win the game.

Remember this - when they played earlier this year Peyton threw for 337 yds, had 3 TD's and 0 INT - D Thomas caught 180 passing yds, McGahee ran for 50 and caught 50.
Brady threw for ONLY 223 yds and 1 TD
You lost by 10.

 

[PATRIOTSFANINPA]

My favorite stat is the one where the 2012 patriots have yet to beat a winning team on the road. We could say the 2012 Pats are not tested because of this. So what's make pats fans think their team will go into mile high and beat a top NFL team that is 7-1 at home?

And I do not know why you think beating two 10-6 teams, one a divisional leader that the pats could not beat and the other a wild card as worthy? lets not forget the Denver broncos blew out these teams on the road as well.

7-1 at home WOWEEEEE!!

Who did your team play at home ALL year?......IIAC there isn't ONE playoff team that your team beat in Denver......except the ONLY game with one playoff team .....and your freaking team LOST.

The Chargers,Raiders,Chiefs,Browns,Bucs ect ...... What a tough home schedule!

What makes YOU think YOUR team can beat a SB contender at home after beating scrubs at home all year and losing to the only talented team you faced?

 

[Ivan]

My favorite stat is the one where the 2012 patriots have yet to beat a winning team on the road. We could say the 2012 Pats are not tested because of this. So what's make pats fans think their team will go into mile high and beat a top NFL team that is 7-1 at home?

And I do not know why you think beating two 10-6 teams, one a divisional leader that the pats could not beat and the other a wild card as worthy? lets not forget the Denver broncos blew out these teams on the road as well.

The Patriots beat the Ravens, the refs blew the call on the FG, and the Patriots blew out the Broncos, again, it's not their fault it was in Foxboro. What makes me think the Patriots will beat the Broncos is the fact that they have averaged almost 40 points a game against them the last 3 meetings, and Denver defenders came off the field saying they had no answers for the Patriots offesne, that they had tried practicing uptempo all week and it wasn't even close to good enough to slow them down. I know i wouldn't feel confident if the Patriots were going to face a team that had beaten them their last 3 meetings and scored 117 points in those 3 games.

 

[Ring 6]

My favorite stat is the one where the 2012 patriots have yet to beat a winning team on the road. We could say the 2012 Pats are not tested because of this. So what's make pats fans think their team will go into mile high and beat a top NFL team that is 7-1 at home?

I like the one that the Broncos havent beaten a team with a winning record at home, so what makes you think they can beat the Patriots, who already beat you handily?

And I do not know why you think beating two 10-6 teams, one a divisional leader that the pats could not beat and the other a wild card as worthy? lets not forget the Denver broncos blew out these teams on the road as well.

We beat the 12-4 Texans who you lost to, and oh year, we beat the 13-3 Broncos.

 

[PatsDeb]

Who knows what will happen, but hopefully Denver will relax, thinking they are all that, and then be stunned when they get some competition finally. By the way, we are only 3-3 against playoff teams this year. What does that say about us? Not sure. We lost to Baltimore (maybe) and Seattle early and SF late (at home no less). I guess that's why they play the games!

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

Broncos faced 3 playoff teams early, within the first 5 games and lost all three, then in the next 11 games, they faced only 2 playoff teams and won both. The Broncos handled the Ravens easily, but against a really beat up Ravens team. The Ravens limped into the playoffs, losing 4 of their last 5 games, so I would put much credance in the Broncos win. Should be an interesting playoffs. Let the games begin.

 

[DENVERBRONCOS2012]

I like the one that the Broncos havent beaten a team with a winning record at home, so what makes you think they can beat the Patriots, who already beat you handily?



We beat the 12-4 Texans who you lost to, and oh year, we beat the 13-3 Broncos.

Yeah...It is suppose to be harder to beat better teams on the road than home so i do not follow that logic

But to bring up this who beat who thing...I could just respond with how Arizona beat the pats at home...losing to a bad team is something the broncos have yet to do.

However, all of this should easily disprove the broncos are easiest path to SB. The same argument can be made for the pats, who lose to bad teams and havent beat a good team on the road, which they must do to get to the SB. But I am not going to argue that the pats are easy to beat as the OP did with the broncos...that would be irrational

But what I am perplexed by is the fact that many posters here think the broncos are easy or not tested. The facts speak differently and the broncos are not the same team as they were in the first half of the season. Good teams not only beat bad teams or even average teams like the saints, panthers, Bucs and chargers (all 7-9), but do so with large margins (check that). Obviously you can take the winning percentage of the last half of football for the broncos but the KC team's record certainly makes the W/L record in the second half much more worse than it is. There were four 7-9 teams and two 10-6 playoff teams that got smoked.

Anybody want to consider the patriots second half opponents winning percentage with the 2-14 jags included? A second half that included a loss as well. but yeah, I still am not going to say the pats are easy. They will be a tough team in the playoffs but I dont think they are as complete as the broncos.

 

[JMC00]

Remember this - when they played earlier this year Peyton threw for 337 yds, had 3 TD's and 0 INT - D Thomas caught 180 passing yds, McGahee ran for 50 and caught 50.
Brady threw for ONLY 223 yds and 1 TD
You lost by 10.

I believe it was 31-7 with 2 minutes left in the 3rd. That was when the defense was bad, no Hernandez, Lloyd and Brady hadn't really gotten in rhythm, Vereen wasn't part of the offense as much as he is now (he got 1 carry in that game), no Gregory, no Hightower. Justin Francis & Brandon Deaderick had a combined 2 snaps in that game and the 2 were Deaderick.

Tavon Wilson and Pat Chung were the safeties playing 65 & 66 of the 66 snaps. Sterling Moore played half the defensive snaps.

And Belichick wasn't sending Linebackers and Defensive Backs on blitzes

 

[josh24]

Well the Broncos in 2012 opponents had a 46% win percentage. That according to your post is on the better side of strength of opponents....

Read the post again. I'm not talking about all the opponents, just the ones you beat. Your team made it the easy way because they lost to real threats (NE, HOU and ATL) and won against the easy ones.

 

[Ivan]

However, all of this should easily disprove the broncos are easiest path to SB. The same argument can be made for the pats, who lose to bad teams and havent beat a good team on the road, which they must do to get to the SB. But I am not going to argue that the pats are easy to beat as the OP did with the broncos...that would be irrational

Denver may have had the easiest road to their seed, that's debatable, however they have the hardest road to winning the Super bowl, as to do so they have to win 14 in a row, and the only team to do that in the last 15 years was the 2003 Patriots. Long winning streaks entering the play-offs seem to be a real problem in terms of winning the tournament.

 

[josh24]

DEN went 7-1 at home. Those 7 teams they beat at home combined for a 17-39 record on the road (0.30357 W-L%).
NE went 6-2 at home. Those 6 teams they beat at home combined for a 23-25 record on the road (0.47917 W-L%).

DEN went 6-2 on the road. Those 6 teams they beat on the road combined for a 20-28 record at home (0.41667 W-L%).
NE went 6-2 on the road. Those 6 teams they beat on the road combined for a 21-27 record at home (0.43750 W-L%).

'Nuff said.

 

[Ring 6]

Yeah...It is suppose to be harder to beat better teams on the road than home so i do not follow that logic

You don't follow the logic because you don't want to. Your home record is due to playing a collection of cream puffs.

But to bring up this who beat who thing...I could just respond with how Arizona beat the pats at home...losing to a bad team is something the broncos have yet to do.

What does that have to do with the playoffs?
The Patriots beat the Broncos, that is what is relevant.

However, all of this should easily disprove the broncos are easiest path to SB. The same argument can be made for the pats, who lose to bad teams and havent beat a good team on the road, which they must do to get to the SB. But I am not going to argue that the pats are easy to beat as the OP did with the broncos...that would be irrational

They do not necessarily need to win on the road to go to the SB.
The Broncos need to win in the divisional round or the AFCCG will be in Foxboro.
Lets not forget you have a QB with a long history of good regular season, a 9-10 playoff record and a 3-6 record outdoors in the playoffs, where he has put up an average of1less than 17 points per game. And noit to mention 1-3 and 8 ppg in cold weather cities.

But what I am perplexed by is the fact that many posters here think the broncos are easy or not tested. The facts speak differently and the broncos are not the same team as they were in the first half of the season.

How are they not the same team? The only difference is the cake schedule.

Good teams not only beat bad teams or even average teams like the saints, panthers, Bucs and chargers (all 7-9), but do so with large margins (check that). Obviously you can take the winning percentage of the last half of football for the broncos but the KC team's record certainly makes the W/L record in the second half much more worse than it is. There were four 7-9 teams and two 10-6 playoff teams that got smoked.

You have not beaten good teams. You have lost to good teams.

Anybody want to consider the patriots second half opponents winning percentage with the 2-14 jags included? A second half that included a loss as well. but yeah, I still am not going to say the pats are easy. They will be a tough team in the playoffs but I dont think they are as complete as the broncos.

A second half that included a loss vs a team that was better than any one you played in the 2nd half, and a dominant win against a team that beat you.
Perhaps you COULD HAVE won vs good teams, but we just don't know that because you played a weak schedule.

 

[BananaRepublican]

Your passionate defense of Manning, while a fine thing to attempt if you so choose, is hysterical and misplaced.

Sorry, I don't put Patriotism before the game itself. Manning's an all time great and he's a personal friend of Tom's. That speaks much louder than the cherry picked stats of fans. Anybody calling himself a fan of Tom who denigrates his friend and fellow great QB is not a fan of this sport. That's my bottom line. I will defend it at times. I know, I know, this means I'm mentally defective because I don't put the personality cult above the sport. Fine.

BTW, I would defend Marino, Fran Tarkenton, Jim Kelly and a few others just as quickly as Manning. It's the principle, not the personality.