Broncos: Easiest path to the #1 seed ever?

[Deus Irae]

It worked out in the end but I honestly thought that trade for Orton was an April Fools Joke and to think he wanted Cassel...smh. He wasted 2 first round draft picks on Tebow and Moreno, need I say more?

Tebow got you to the playoffs. Calling that a wasted pick is ridiculous, particularly because the draft day maneuvers made it almost a free pick.

 

[Miller time]

Whats with all the Broncos fans? The wild card games havent even been played yet. This board is going to be unbearable if these guys are going to be hanging around trash talking for the next 3 weeks.

I go to all playoff boards to talk possible match ups, it's fun. I don't mean any harm.

 

[Huckleberry1]

Whats with all the Broncos fans? The wild card games havent even been played yet. This board is going to be unbearable if these guys are going to be hanging around trash talking for the next 3 weeks.

Fear. They aren't facing the Patriots and don't even know if they will, but here they are. I don't think we should treat the ones who are just looking to talk football like the ones who are just trolling, like the "vagisil" poster was. I think bronco fans are really concerned that they will get NE, and are really hoping the Patriots get knocked out before it comes to that.

 

[ivanvamp]

This is an intriguing hypothetical. Snow would seemingly level the playingfield... Or tip the balance to New England.

I wonder if someone could find comparative statistics between Manning and Brady in wintry conditions? (I would research myself but do not have the time and am posting off my smartphone/3G) I would expect Brady's to be much better and the sample size to be larger.

I don't have the time to go through every box score and see what the weather conditions were. But let's just create a general "bad weather" scenario: Any date after Nov 20, in a cold weather, outdoor site. That should work for our purposes.

Here are their career #'s (including playoffs) in those types of situations:

Tom Brady
71 g, 64-7 (.901), 28.3 ppg, 1465-2318 (63.2%), 17227 yds, 129 td, 42 int, 96.7 rating

Peyton Manning
26 g, 15-11 (.577), 22.5 ppg, 540-860 (62.8%), 6351 yds, 38 td, 28 int, 86.3 rating

Now, let's compare those stats with each QB's overall career totals (including cold-site games) - stats are per-game averages:

Tom Brady
Category - Overall - Cold Site
Win % - .771 - .901
Comp % - 63.6% - 63.2%
YPG - 254.3 - 242.6
TD/G - 1.89 - 1.82
INT/G - 0.73 - 0.59
Rating - 95.6 - 96.7

Peyton Manning
Category - Overall - Cold Site
Win % - .670 - .577
Comp % - 65.0% - 62.8%
YPG - 267.0 - 244.3
TD/G - 1.91 - 1.46
INT/G - 0.94 - 1.08
Rating - 95.1 - 86.3

So clearly, Peyton Manning's numbers are significantly worse in cold weather games than they are overall. And obviously, if you took out their non-cold weather games, and do the same comparison, here's what you get:

Tom Brady
Category - Non/Cold - Cold Site
Win % - .772 - .901
Comp % - 63.9% - 63.2%
YPG - 260.8 - 242.6
TD/G - 1.93 - 1.82
INT/G - 0.80 - 0.59
Rating - 95.0 - 96.7

Peyton Manning
Category - Non/Cold - Cold Site
Win % - .682 - .577
Comp % - 65.3% - 62.8%
YPG - 269.7 - 244.3
TD/G - 1.97 - 1.46
INT/G - 0.92 - 1.08
Rating - 96.1 - 86.3

So they are just about the same QB in non-cold situations, but wow, tehre's a major difference when it comes to cold-situations. Brady is far superior.

So long story shorter, if they play in any sort of cold or wintry conditions in Denver, Brady has a significant advantage there. It's not to say that Peyton couldn't play well, because clearly he could (he's had many good cold-site games), but it's an advantage for New England. Their entire careers bear this out.

 

[Miller time]

Tebow got you to the playoffs. Calling that a wasted pick is ridiculous, particularly because the draft day maneuvers made it almost a free pick.

I guess you could look at it like that. Beating the Steelers was sweet since I can't stand them, the mile high magic was in the air for sure. I called it wasted since he's not a Bronco anymore and we got alot less for him, just a silly move to me, he shouldn't have been a first round. In regards to Moreno,he's doing well now but I'm still leery of him being injury prone and burning out after a few games.

 

[Huckleberry1]

I guess you could look at it like that. Beating the Steelers was sweet since I can't stand them, the mile high magic was in the air for sure. I called it wasted since he's not a Bronco anymore and we got alot less for him, just a silly move to me, he shouldn't have been a first round. In regards to Moreno,he's doing well now but I'm still leery of him being injury prone and burning out after a few games.

I'm still grateful to Pete Carroll for losing to the Steelers in the play-offs years ago, without that loss we don 't get Belichick and Brady. Thanks Pete.

 

[Kontradiction]

I guess you could look at it like that. Beating the Steelers was sweet since I can't stand them, the mile high magic was in the air for sure. I called it wasted since he's not a Bronco anymore and we got alot less for him, just a silly move to me, he shouldn't have been a first round. In regards to Moreno,he's doing well now but I'm still leery of him being injury prone and burning out after a few games.

Moreno is a decent running back and would have been an excellent change of pace/depth guy at the position if McGahee didn't get hurt. As it stands right now, he's going to be your primary guy... and he's not a guy that can run on the Patriots' front seven.

 

[Deus Irae]

I guess you could look at it like that. Beating the Steelers was sweet since I can't stand them, the mile high magic was in the air for sure. I called it wasted since he's not a Bronco anymore and we got alot less for him, just a silly move to me, he shouldn't have been a first round. In regards to Moreno,he's doing well now but I'm still leery of him being injury prone and burning out after a few games.

His first draft was a poor one, but that second draft is what's set the Broncos up:

Thomas
Decker
Beadles
Walton
Tebow - Before Manning
Cox - Before criminal issues

Olsen is still in the league, serving as a backup in New Orleans.

That draft is a big part of why Manning's in Denver.

 

[ivanvamp]

Moreno is a decent running back and would have been an excellent change of pace/depth guy at the position if McGahee didn't get hurt. As it stands right now, he's going to be your primary guy... and he's not a guy that can run on the Patriots' front seven.

Why not? He's played one game against the Pats in the past and had 21 rushes for 88 yds (4.2 ypc), and also had 4 receptions for 36 yds.

I don't see any reason why he can't run on the Pats...at least, no less than anyone else. He's a good running back but like most RBs, it depends on the OL opening some holes.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Why not? He's played one game against the Pats in the past and had 21 rushes for 88 yds (4.2 ypc), and also had 4 receptions for 36 yds.

I don't see any reason why he can't run on the Pats...at least, no less than anyone else. He's a good running back but like most RBs, it depends on the OL opening some holes.

Maybe he did in the past, but not THIS YEAR's front 7 is a different story.

 

[ivanvamp]

Maybe he did in the past, but not THIS YEAR's front 7 is a different story.

My point is that Moreno has ability. He's a pretty good player. I don't see any reason why he wouldn't be able to run against the Pats' D, but a guy like McGahee could.

 

[Kontradiction]

Why not? He's played one game against the Pats in the past and had 21 rushes for 88 yds (4.2 ypc), and also had 4 receptions for 36 yds.

I don't see any reason why he can't run on the Pats...at least, no less than anyone else. He's a good running back but like most RBs, it depends on the OL opening some holes.

That was in 2009. The 2012 Patriots front seven has been better at stopping the run. The the first meeting, with their full complement of runners, the Broncos rushed 20 times for 70 yards, busting off 3.5 ypc and 0 TD's on the ground. Moreno didn't have an attempt in that game and McGahee (the better runner of the two) ran 14 times for 51 yards.

 

[Kontradiction]

My point is that Moreno has ability. He's a pretty good player. I don't see any reason why he wouldn't be able to run against the Pats' D, but a guy like McGahee could.

Since his college days, Moreno has had a world of trouble running against bigger, more athletic front sevens. Take a look at what Spikes did to him in 2008.

 

[ivanvamp]

Since his college days, Moreno has had a world of trouble running against bigger, more athletic front sevens. Take a look at what Spikes did to him in 2008.

Well listen I hope you're right and the Pats hold him to 25 yards!

 

[RYObroncosfan]

Since his college days, Moreno has had a world of trouble running against bigger, more athletic front sevens. Take a look at what Spikes did to him in 2008.

I don't think anyone knows what to expect with Moreno in the playoffs, Broncos fans included. I would expect him to continue to play well like he has the past few weeks, but since he's entered the league, he's shown flashes of talent followed by fumbles. Then flashes of talent followed by injury. He looked good for a little bit last year then got hurt again. Had a good preseason this year, then fumbled early and never saw action again.

McGahee got hurt, and now he's showing the flashes of talent again. Either he's turned a corner and is finally ready to succeed in the NFL, or he's due for a costly fumble/injury. If we play you guys in the AFCCG though, McGahee will be back anyway. That's when he's returning, and then if they split carries, Moreno can be that good change of pass back.

 

[patsfan-1982]

one of the best QB's in NFL history the #2 defense and every game will be played in denver i dont care if they beat up on bad teams they will not be a easy out...but even with that said i have them being one and done looseing to the colts

 

[CYA_PATS_DEN>NE_2012AFCCG]

their O is very good. Mcghee hurt will hurt them in the long run. I know their D is top 5 in NFL...but when teams (pats) run no huddle on them...they get gassed and slow..and quick. I am not worried about their D. But of our D trying to stop them in the 4th when we need a key 3rd down stop. Lets hope we make it that far first

1. McGahee is pretty much healthy but he is only eligible to return for the AFCCG. You'll see him granted we both make it there.

2. Go ahead, try running no huddle in an ultra loud, hostile, thin-air environment. You'll gas out before we do.

 

[crypto]

playing in denver seems like a death knell to me at this point

 

[CYA_PATS_DEN>NE_2012AFCCG]

In my opinion, it really came down to the Pats taking the foot off the gas in the second half. The Pats dominated the first three quarters and then let the Broncos come back. The game really wasn't as close as the score indicated.

You can say the exact thing about the 49ers and Pats. Everyone was slobbering Brady's knob after that game but exactly what happened when Harbaugh finally smarted up and axed the prevent D? I think we all know.

 

[ivanvamp]

Go ahead, try running no huddle in an ultra loud, hostile, thin-air environment. You'll gas out before we do.

If the no-huddle isn't successful, it won't be because the Pats are gassed. It'll be because the Broncos do a good job defending it.

The no-huddle isn't really about speed. They do get to the line quickly and they like to go fast but their primary objective is to get the other team in a defensive personnel group that the Pats can exploit, and then getting to the line quickly so the defense can't substitute. That's how the Pats destroy people. Denver is just as susceptible to that as anyone else.

Say it's 3rd and 1 and the Pats have their base offense and the Broncos bring in an extra LB or DL to stop the run, and the Pats manage to get the first down anyway. Then they'll hurry up, preventing Denver from getting that extra big body off the field, and that's when Gronkowski and Hernandez can just chew you up.